Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    That's malarkey.

    This virus already IS very different.
    It should not even even been in South America until about now - it reached South America 3 months ago.
    It was supposed to attack only in cold and wet conditions, and yet, it is revelling in hot and dry conditions as well.
    It can re-infect. More than once.
    It attacks multiple systems within the body, one after the other, in an almost systematic fashion. No previous virus that we have studied has behaved like this one.
    It is doing things to the human brain that we cannot even begin to speculate about yet. First in maybe six months we may get a glimpse at what has happened to neural pathways within the brain itself.

    It can well be that in two years time, no one will be talking about 2 or 3 individual waves, but rather, an enormous wave that never stopped and simply went through moderate phases of rise- plateau - rise - plateau.

    Finally, believing is irrelevant for these purposes . What is actually happening, what is fact, is. You can believe that the Earth is flat and I wouldn't give a ****. But fact is, the Earth is round.
     
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  2. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    The medical community are working on treatments and vaccines and there is already a vaccine being tested across 5 nations including the US, Brazil and the UK.

    However UNTIL there is a viable vaccine and/or treatment we MUST insist upon the MANDATORY use of MASKS, sanitizing and social distancing otherwise we end up with DEAD humans who can no longer do what humans do.
     
  3. chris155au

    chris155au Well-Known Member

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    Are you the media?
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Because of the sheer enormity of total cases worldwide and of course, in the USA, the growth rates for all rubriks will look compatively smaller. On Friday, 2020-06-026, the world jumped almost +200,000 cases, which translated to a 2.02% growth rate. Had that happened on 2020-04-026, exactly 2 months before, then had we grown by +196,161 cases from 2020-05-025 to 2020-06-026 instead of by the +77,998, then we would have already landed at +3,111,425 on that day instead of the actual 2,993,262 and the growth rate, which was actually +2.68% on that day, would have been: +6.73%!

    Essentially, had his point been that the death rate overall, both worldwide and in the USA, percentually, no matter which method you use to measure it, is indeed decreasing in the USA and also numerically- then it would have been statistically correct - it is not like it was at the heighth of the NY/NJ/MI hotspot-peaks, but the numbers are still high simply because of the sheer enormity of total confirmed cases. And with a massive influx of new cases, more than twice as many as in the month before, the number of deaths is bound to rise again.

    So, what he has done is to prove that people can also use statistics to pervert them to meet their own political agenda. That's not the data's fault. It's the fault of the individual who decided to pervert the statistic to begin with. The good old 'could have, would have, should haves'.
     
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely incorrect. Go back and look at the counties tables.
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Grööööööööööööhl!!!!
     
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The total testing list says that you are wrong:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 008 Total Tests 001.png

    Of the top 26 states, 11 are from the Deep South. The other 15 are not

    Here the other 25, including DC:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 008 Total Tests 002.png

    I did not include West Virginia or Maryland/DE - they are actually South of the Mason-Dixon line, but West Virginia did not exist when the line was drawn - at that time, there was simply one Virginia. West Virginia split with Virginia specifically over slavery and joined the North. Maryland/Delaware also joined the North.

    More importantly is the tests per 1 million population, a wierd way to list the % of the state that has actually been tested, but then again, maybe not. Some people have been tested 3-4 times.

    Feel free to provide hard data that shows that those Southern states had more added tests in the last 21 days than the other states.
     
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  8. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    It actually appears, give or take a few thousand here or there that most States have tested more or less in line with the other States.
    The thing with tests early on was the swabs, etc. And when you consider that EVERY country in the world is dealing with COVID-19,
    that means we're all dealing with various shortages, etc. If only we could repurpose the equipment used that would be swell.
     
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  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    HERE the entire posting for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before. On that date, 2020-06-027, 20:11 GMT +2 / 14:11 EDT, the world arrived at 10-MILLION total COVID-19 cases. Just thirty hours later, the world has already advanced to 10.24 million C19 cases.

    During the run of the day on 2020-06-028, there were two other important analyses:
    USA EOD report for 2020-06-027, posted 2020-06-028, 15:38 GMT +2, #10599.
    Excel-table for and 1st analysis of INDIA, posted 2020-06-028, 21:54 GMT +2, #10616.

    You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Sunday, 2020-06-028 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ֍ 10,238,287 ֍
    +163,172 new C19 cases over the day before.
    Weekly average: +171,336 new C19 cases per day, starkly up from the week before.
    There are now 130 nations with at least 100 total COVID-19 cases.

    There have now been 504,078 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +3,454 of them were on this day.
    Weekly average: +4,925 deaths per day, almost identical to the week before.

    602 Mexican, 555 Brazilian, 384 Indian, 285 US-American & 182 Peruvian deaths were recorded on this day.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Worldwide 000.png

    We have now seen 28 straight days of +100,000 or more new C-19 cases per day and you can extend that statistic out to 32 out of the last 33 days, save 2020-05-031. 12 of the last 13 days saw more than +140,000 new C19 cases per day. In other words, every single day in June 2020 has seen +100,000 (or far more) daily cases and the probability is extremely high that when all is said and done, every single day in the month of June, 2020 will have seen over +100,000 cases per day.

    Further, the daily new cases for 2020-06-028 far exceeded any Sunday on record, confirming a week that I thought would be far heavier than the weeks before. And indeed, it was:

    the weekly average in daily cases for week ending on 2020-06-028 was: +171,336 per day, a solid jump over the week before, which was +150,696 per day.

    The weekly average in daily deaths for week ending on 2020-06-028 was: +4,924, a sharp rise over 2 weeks ago, which reflected an average of +4,917 deaths per day.

    Starting on Monday, 2020-06-029, I am turning the weekly average into a rolling 7-day average, so you can see every day how the average is shaping up, in real time. I will mention the weekly averages as a part of every Sunday analysis, but now you will have the option to see the math at work every time I update the excel files.

    The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.


    Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +50 C19 cases and above):
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Worldwide 001.png
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Worldwide 002.png
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Worldwide 003.png
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Worldwide 004.png
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Worldwide 005.png
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Worldwide 006.png
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Worldwide 007.png

    The seven countries highlighted in green are part of my "Lower Upperdecks" Series, which has now achieved its first lap.

    130-66-19-2
    In terms of total cases per country, there are now 130 nations in the "thousand club". At between 994 and 924 cases, respectively, Cyprus, Burkina Faso, Uruguay and Georgia are next up to cross over the 1,000 line.

    Of those
    130, 66 nations are now in the "10,000 club".

    19
    of those 66 nations are at 100,000 or more. Currently at 94,413, Quatar will cross over the 100,000 in the next days. However, Columbia, now at 91,769, is growing far more cases per day and will definitely get there before Quatar.

    Of those 19,
    2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil. At 634,437 C19-cases, Russia would seem to be next, but India, currently at 549,197 C19-cases and now 85,000 cases behind Russia, is growing cases twice as quickly as Russia and will very likely get there first. In the month of July, 2020, India will surpass Russia in the number of total cases and then hold rank 3 for a good, long while. To this purpose, I have opened up an excel-table for India, here is the first small analysis: Excel-table for and 1st analysis of INDIA, posted 2020-06-028, 21:54 GMT +2, #10616. In the analysis, I predict a time-frame in which India will overtake Russia in the C19 rankings.

    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    [​IMG]
    69-22-3

    69 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 73. Of those 69, 22 countries had +1000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 18. For the first time ever, both Panama and Honduras recorded +1,000 new C19 cases.

    Of those 19,
    3 nations had over +10,000 cases: the USA, Brazil and India. This has been going on for days now. For the first time ever, India went over +20,000 new cases. Those three nations together accounted for 89,473 (54,83%) of all daily cases on 2020-06-028. The day before, it was: 56.41%.


    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:

    [​IMG]

    84-36-9-1
    There are now 84 nations with 100 total deaths or more, with Haiti having crossed over the 100-line on 2020-06-028. At between 98-83 current total deaths respectively, Eithiopia, Somalia, Cuba and Bahrain are next to cross over the line.

    Of those 84,
    36 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. There 13 nations between 500-1000 total deaths. The numbers for Japan and Austria are barely moving, but they are for the other 11 and you can be guaranteed that in the last 2 days of this month, a few of them will probably over this gruesome marker.

    Of those 36, there are
    9 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

    And finally, of those 8,
    1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:

    [​IMG]

    Mexico, Brazil, India, USA, Peru, Colombia and Chile lead with the most daily deaths.

    9 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 11 the day before). 6 of those 9 countries, or 2/3, are from the Americas.

    If you look back at the major European hotspot countries from March/April/part of May, there can be no doubt that the wave that hit Europe is receding. The Americas (North, Middle and South) have become the world's hotspot.

    I would just like to remind about this series I have running, for which there will be large analysis at the end of June, 2020:

    "Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612.
    And
    "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2 (7 other nations). It's all explained at the links. A halfway-point update was just released:

    Future Upperdecks #1 and #2: the halfway point, posted 2020-06-014, 09:39, #10104.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 27 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Worldwide 010 - total tests.png


    At 998,736 tests, Denmark is next to cross over the 1,000 line. As soon as Denmark is added to the 1,000,000 club I will stop including this graphic, you will need to go to Worldmeters yourselves to see the numbers.

    China has now performed 90.4 million COVID-19 tests and now leads the field by far. This leads me to believe that very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. The USA has now performed
    32.6 million tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 19.0 million tests (300,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections and in terms of total deaths, has performed 2.9 million such tests.

    Facit: on 2020-06-028, the world gained +163,000 new C19 cases and landed at 10.24 million total C19 cases. With two days left in the month, we will likely hit at least 10.5 million on 2020-06-030.

    Now at 128,437 total deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. The USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 25.5% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA. A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

    Brazil, currently at 57,658 total deaths and growing around 1,000 deaths per day, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. Brazil's calculated average from last week was +1,039 so very likely, between July 31st and August 15th of this year, this will happen.

    The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. It is still logistical and not exponential, but there is a noticeable increase in overall daily C19 cases. That being said, new hotspots are verifiably emerging. The average daily deaths in terms of raw numbers remains stabile, but due to the enormous amount of overall cases, the actual death rate continues to sink and is currently identical to the death rate we had on 2020-03-031. That is in and of itself a very good sign. The problem is the huge increase in total cases, which will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise again, probably within the next 21-27 days. It's like a game of whack-a-mole. We've seen this pattern happen before. cc: @Ethereal


    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
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  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

    In the analysis for Sunday, 2020-06-021, I explained moving from analysing the USA in terms of 50 States to 57 "Units". You can read the rationale for this in that analysis.

    You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

    And now:

    COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Sunday, 2020-06-028 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

    **2,637,077** (25.76% of worldwide total)
    +40,540 cases, 2nd highest daily haul (24.84% of worldwide haul)
    13 days in a row of +25,000 or more new cases / 8 days of +30,000 / 4 days of +40,000!

    128,437 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (25.48% of worldwide deaths); 285 of them recorded on this day.
    1,093,456 people have recovered, 1,415,484 are, however, still sick.
    The recovered % sunk again slightly on 2020-06-028, for the fourth day in a row. Trend is established.


    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 000.png

    You can see that in terms of daily cases, this Sunday is the 4th highest daily haul thus far, all four of them in the last four days, but this Sunday also far, far, far outstrips any other Sunday on record and confirmed my prediction of a very heavy C19-week in the USA.

    The weekly average in daily C19 cases for the week that just ended on 2020-06-028 was: +40,060 per day, far above the +27,776 cases per day in the week before. That being said, because the total number of cases is now enormously high, that pressed the actual growth rate downward. Consider this: at 2.6 million total cases, a +10.00 growth rate would mean adding +260,000 cases.

    The weekly average in daily C19 deaths for the week that just ended on 2020-06-028 was: +884 per day, above the +627 deaths per day in the week before. However, the dump of +1,800 deaths retroactively reported in NJ on 2020-06-025 pushed this statistic upward. So, wait and see what this week brings.

    The actual number of daily deaths on 2020-06-028, +285, is only marginally higher than the Sunday before (+267) but decidedly lower than the 3 Sundays before that. This is EXCEEDINGLY good news, but the real concern here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 3-4 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, GA, TX, AZ and CA. @Ethereal - you can learn from this.


    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 001.png
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 002.png
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 003.png



    57: 52-41-16-7

    52 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 47 of them are US States. At 899 or less C19 cases, it will still be a while before the states of Hawaii, Alaska and Montana cross over this line, but I am very sure that in the fullness of time, they will. However, at 280, the pacific Territories may take a good while to get there.

    41
    of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. Currently at 8,341 cases, Oregon will probably be next, but it will take a while. This kind of thing tends to happen in spurts: a bunch of Units (mostly, states) will slowly get close to a milestone and within days, they all jump over said milestone.

    Of those 41, 16 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases, with Ohio jumping over the 50,000-line on 2020-06-028. Connecticut is likely to go over the 50,000 line in the next days, but Indiana may get there first.

    Of those 15, 7 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases.

    New daily cases:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 005 - new cases.png
    57: 53-37-8
    53 of 57 Units reported at least one new case, 47 of those 53 being states. To 2 states to report no new cases: TN, RI and ID.

    37
    of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 35 of those 37 Units were states. The two non-states were: Puerto Rico and Veterans Affairs.

    8 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, all of them being states. Florida's +8,530 is almost identical to it's +8,585 from the day before. Were Florida a country, it would have held rank 4 on the worldwide listing, after the USA, Brazil and India. California over +5,000, Texas over +4,000 - these numbers we can understand from the top two dreadnaught states in the nation. But Arizona, pushing +4,000? Arizona is considerably smaller state. Also, Georgia has gone over +2,000 new cases. Yes, testing is increasing all over the USA, but not necessarily only in the South and the West. It is increasing everywhere.


    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 007 - new deaths.png

    I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.
    57: 34-10-0

    34 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 30 of them are US States. The non-states: DC, Western Territories, the US Military, the US Prison System.

    Of those 43, 10 reported deaths in double digits, from +10 to +32. 9 of those 10 Units are US States. The non-state: Navajo Nation.

    Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 0 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths.

    The fact that we only had +285 new deaths is of course, and without wanting to besmirch the memory of those who have died, great news compared to the misery of Apri/May 2020, but fact also is that a number of states report a lot less on Sundays and dump the Sunday numbers into Mondays and Tuesdays.


    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 006 - total deaths.png

    57: 45-24-2
    45 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 45 Units are US States. At 93, 91, 91 and 79 total deaths respectively, WV, ID, SD and ND will soon cross over that marker.

    Of those 45, 24 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 23 of those 24 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. At 927 and 919, respectively, Rhode Island and Alabama are inching up toward the +1,000-death line, it will likely happen within July, 2020.

    Of those 24 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 50 States plus DC, total performed COVID-19 tests:

    A claim was made that more cases in the South are being reported simply because the South is suddenly performing far more C19 tests than anywhere else in the Union. This claim is FALSE. Here, look:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 008 Total Tests 001.png

    Out of the top 26 in the listing above, 11 states are or were considered part of the South. The other 15 are not.

    Here the bottom 25:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 008 Total Tests 002.png

    Here the remaining 3 states considered Southern states are on the bottom listing. I did not include West Virginia. When the Mason-Dixon line was created in the Missouri Compromise of 1850, the state of West Virginia (which was originally to be named "Kanwaha") did not even exist and the state broke away from Virginia in protest over slavery and joined the Union. Therefore, West Virginia is not a southern state, it never was. Also, Maryland and Delaware are actually on the south side of the Mason-Dixon line, but yet, they were part of the Union and considered part of the Acela region of the USA.

    Now, this table shows the totals, but not the growth rates in performed tests over the last days. The person who made this claim can gladly provide hard, solid, numeric evidence that the South is experiencing such a massive uptick in cases only because they are far outstripping the rest of the Union in performing said tests. Hint: even Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida, said yesterday on live TV that this is not the case.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 128,437 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 127,000-136,000:

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of just under ALL of SURPRISE or CONCORD, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that.


    What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

    This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not.

    So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

    150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
    200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
    250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

    Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

    Right now, we are 2,642 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us just under 3 days ahead of the projection.


    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
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  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The EXCEL-Tables for WORLDWIDE, the USA, BRAZIL, RUSSIA and INDIA for 2020-06-028:

    You can already see the excel tables for the worldwide and USA statistics in the postings above, but here they are again, with the other three big nations as well. You can read the numbers for yourselves and look for increases, decreases, patterns, etc:

    Worldwide:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Worldwide 000.png

    USA:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD USA 000.png

    BRAZIL:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Brazil 000.png

    RUSSIA:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD Russia 000.png

    INDIA:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  EOD India 000.png

    I simply don't have time for extensive analyses every day of Brazil, Russia and India, but I can provide screenshots of the Excel-table once a week, with the big Sunday analyses.

    -Stat
     
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  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Starting at 1 PM my time, I have an enormous workday ahead of me, but one final, helpful note about the change in the Excel-tables (see: my sig-file) for worldwide and all nations that I am covering individually:

    now that the weekly averages are programmed in for every day from now on, this means that this is a 'rolling 7-day average'. The USA has not yet reported any data for today, 2020-06-029, so I screenshotted today (thus far) to use it as an example:

    2020-06-028 COVID-19  USA as example for rolling averages.png

    The two values you see at the upper-right on the table would be the rolling average from this Monday back to and including last Tuesday (from 2020-06-029 back to and through 2020-06-023). As I input data into the USA table during the run of the day, those numbers will change. Once the day is done, those numbers will essentially become permanent.

    Actually, watching a rolling 7 day average probably helps us to see the ebb and flow of each week.

    I myself am very curious to see if the USA comes in at or over +40,000 new cases today. If +40,000 happens on both Sunday (yesterday) and Monday (today), the two verifiably leanest days in the week, then this probably means that +40,000 has become the new normal in the USA. This is not a huge wonder considering ramped-up testing. It will likely also mean, when all is said and done, that the positivity rate (number of cases / total number of administered tests) will fall, even if the raw numbers rise precipitiously, as was verifiably the case last week. It's hard to believe, but we are now going into our 5th full month of COVID-19, and the thing is not abating.

    Deaths have dropped somewhat, but there are now indicators that they will rise again, this time in other hotspots.

    I want to encourage PF members to go to the excel table often. I try to check in (even on a busy day) every 4 hours and if there is new data, I plug it in. Sometimes, however, there's just no time for me to do this.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
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  13. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

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    Because it is so obviously true.
    More testing = more irrelevant positives until herd immunity is achieved. And that will take a long time because of Fake Political Science and the irrational economic lockdown.
     
  14. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

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    Been there - done that from the start.

    >>

    The people who have relied on Fake Science during the CCP/DP Wuhan Virus should know by now that they have been misled.

    "The Lancet paper that halted global trials of hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 because of fears of increased deaths has been retracted after a Guardian investigation found inconsistencies in the data.

    The lead author, Prof Mandeep Mehra, from the Brigham and Women’s hospital in Boston, decided to ask the Lancet for the retraction because he could no longer vouch for the data’s accuracy.

    Related: How were medical journals and WHO caught out over hydroxychloroquine?

    The journal’s editor, Richard Horton, said he was appalled by developments. “This is a shocking example of research misconduct in the middle of a global health emergency,” he told the Guardian."
    THE GUARDIAN, Covid-19: Lancet retracts paper that halted hydroxychloroquine trials, By Sarah Boseley Health editor, June 5, 2020.
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...-halted-hydroxychloroquine-trials/ar-BB152Zo4

    Very effective treatments have been withheld to spike the death rate.
     
  15. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I read a discussion on this study by people much more knowledgeable than I, but the main takeaway is that the existence or lack thereof for antibodies 2-3 months later isn't the end all for built up immunity. In fact, we don't really want antibodies floating around the system for very long periods of time.

    Instead, we need to learn whether the memory system for the immune system is capable of remembering covid-19 after those antibodies have disappeared and then see how quickly they are able (or willing) to remanufacture the antibodies.

    I will see if I can track it down.
     
  16. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Hospitalizations and ICU usages are spiking across the country in the places where the case counts are spiking.
     
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  17. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

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    IOW, end the irrational economic lockdown right now.

    "The median fatality rate of all cases, he writes, is 0.26%, significantly lower than some earlier estimates that suggested rates as high as over 3%.

    In the paper, Ioannidis acknowledges that "while COVID-19 is a formidable threat," the apparently low fatality rate compared to earlier estimates "is a welcome piece of evidence."

    "Decision-makers can use measures that will try to avert having the virus infect people and settings who are at high risk of severe outcomes," he writes. "These measures may be possible to be far more precise and tailored to specific high- risk individuals and settings than blind lockdown of the entire society."
    JUST THE NEWS, Stanford prof: Median infection fatality rate of coronavirus for those under 70 is just 0.04%, The lower number is 'a welcome piece of evidence,' he says., By Daniel Payne, June 20, 2020.
    https://justthenews.com/politics-po...tion-fatality-rate-coronavirus-those-under-70
     
  18. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Time for the Weekly Update to my State Rankings Project. You can find last week's post here: http://www.politicalforum.com/index...-in-the-world.569531/page-415#post-1071803396

    I made no changes to the type of data provided. First up are the data with the States ranked according to their Mortality rate.

    upload_2020-6-29_12-17-46.png

    upload_2020-6-29_12-18-41.png

    upload_2020-6-29_12-19-15.png

    upload_2020-6-29_12-19-59.png

    upload_2020-6-29_12-20-34.png

    In terms of Mortality, Arizona continues to drop in the rankings. Arizona had the highest mortality rate when I started this project back on April 12th and held that place until June 7th. Back then, their mortality rate was 7.68% and that was the highest in the nation, although it got as high as 11.57%. Today, their mortality rate is 5.08% and that is 14th. The other shifts in the top 10 include the fact that New Jersey, who reported ~1900 deaths in one day jumped all the way to 3rd place. New Hampshire continued to move upwards by two spots and Indiana moved back into the top ten while leapfrogging back over Ohio.
    Interesting Note: With New Jersey's new deaths added into the mix, its mortality rate jumped by more than one full percentage point and it may emerge as the single hardest hit State when everything is said and done.

    Cases (PC) Diff rankings show that the Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Wisconsin are the top five States in terms of seeing their Cases, per capita, grow the most. The range being 3,000.3 to 1,606.6. The five slowest States are West Virginia, New Hampshire, Vermont, Montana, and Hawaii. The range being 151.7 to 48.6.
    Interesting Note: The case counts in Arizona, which has lead this category four weeks in a row, continue to accelerate. Florida, South Carolina, and Wisconsin are also repeat top-fivers.

    Cases (PC) Growth Rankings show that Florida, Arizona, South Carolina, Texas, and Idaho are the top five States in terms of seeing their Cases grow, as a percentage, the most. The range being 45.00% to 32.78%. On the opposite end are Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, and New York. The range being 1.98% to 1.19%.
    Interesting Note: Florida jumped from #4 in this category to #1 on the back of a 45% jump in cases, in one week. Arizona and South Carolina make repeat appearances in the top five. The bottom five are the same as last week, albeit with a slightly different order.

    Deaths (PC) Diff Rankings show that New Jersey, Arizona, Delaware, Mississippi, and Rhode Island are the top five States in terms of seeing their Deaths, per capita, grow the most. The range being 236.28 to 31.22. On the opposite end are Puerto Rico, Idaho, Hawaii, Wyoming, and Vermont. The range being 1.25 to 0.00. (Vermont and Wyoming saw zero new deaths).
    Interesting Note: As mentioned previously, New Jersey reported approximately 1900 new probable deaths and thus, their deaths per capita jumped tremendously. Rhode Island has been in the top five of this category for five weeks in a row. Unfortunately, Hawaii finally had one new death after nearly eight weeks of zero deaths.

    Deaths (PC) Growth Rankings show that Arizona, Alaska, Delaware, New Jersey, and Arkansas are the top five States in terms of seeing their Deaths, as a percentage, grow the most. The range being 18.60% to 15.63%. On the opposite end are Connecticut, Michigan, New York, Wyoming, and Vermont. The range being 1.31% to 0.0%.
    Interesting Note: Arizona's percentile growth of deaths per capita went from the 4th fastest last week to the top spot this week. Arkansas is the only other repeat top fiver. Alaska actually went from a bottom five (with zero deaths in that week) to a top five in this category even though they only added two new deaths in the entire week. On the other end, Michigan is the only repeat appearance amongst the bottom five.

    Mortality Diff Rankings show that New Jersey, Delaware, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts are the top five States to see their Mortality go up the most. The range being 1.139% to 0.077%. On the opposite end are Oklahoma, Louisiana, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona. The range being -0.549% to -0.963%.
    Interesting Note: New Jersey, saw it's mortality rate spike tremendously because of those previously unreported deaths. As I previously noted (again), Arizona seeing it's mortality drop so much is really standout, but it is probably the result of seeing its infection count increase so much - and that is probably true for nearly all of the bottom five with Oklahoma and Florida making repeat appearances here. The mortality rate in New Hampshire and Rhode Island continue to increase at a top five fastest rate in the country for the fifth week in a row. Massachusetts is also a repeat top five for the third week in a row in this category.

    Testing (Positive %) Diff Rankings show that Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, Texas, and Nevada are the top five States in terms of seeing their Percentage of Positive Test increase the most. The range being 2.013% to 0.949%. On the opposite end are Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, and District of Columbia. The range being --0.919% to -1.597%.
    Interesting Note: New York, New Jersey and the District of Columbia continue to demonstrate that they are getting a better handle on identifying all of their positive cases by seeing their positive testing percentage drop at the fastest rates for the several weeks in a row. I have to give credit to the District of Columbia because it has shaved nearly 8% from the positive testing percentage in the last three weeks. Unfortunately, the number of States to see their positive testing percentage increase went from 15 States last week to 20 this week. The previous week, it was only 10.

    Tests Per 100K Diff
    show that Alaska, New York, District of Columbia, Louisiana, and Arkansas are the top five States to see their Tests Per 100K increase the most. The range being 2,747.5 to 1,625.3. On the opposite end are Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Colorado, Hawaii, and Oregon. The range being 665.4 to 352.7.
    Interesting Note: Four of the top five States for this category (NY, DC, AK, and LA) are repeats from last week. It is unfortunate to note that Oregon saw the slowest growths in testing this past week and yet it's testing positive percentage increased by more than 0.4%, hopefully they can turn it around.

    Tests Per 100K Growth
    show that Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, and South Carolina the top five States to see their tests, as a percentage, increase. The range being 23.00% to 18.88%. On the opposite end are Massachusetts, North Dakota, South Dakota, Rhode Island, and Oregon. The range being 8.08% to 7.29%.
    Interesting Note: I predicted, two weeks ago, that South Carolina would need to see its testing ramp up this week and it did on a percentile basis, coming in 5th highest - again - , but not so much in terms of the raw tests done, per capita, coming in at 21st - again. All of the States, and there are even more this week, that saw their positive testing percentage increase this past week need to immediately and dramatically increase their testing further.
     
  19. Ethereal

    Ethereal Well-Known Member

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    This is a good example of how alarmists like to argue. Make as many claims as possible while providing zero evidence to back it up and hope that you've muddied the waters enough to discourage further debate.

    But here are the facts that you cannot refute: Over 99% of people infected by coronavirus survive. And the majority of people who did die were months away from dying in any case. Your incessant fear-mongering, hysteria, and alarmism are based on cherry-picked statistics, anomalies, and stories.
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
  20. Ethereal

    Ethereal Well-Known Member

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    I never claimed they had more added tests in the last 21 days than the other states. I simply said they've done more testing. And that is 100% true.

    At any rate, the only thing that really matters is the rate of deaths and serious illness, not the number of cases, the vast majority of which are asymptomatic or mild and therefore nothing to worry about.

    And the rate of deaths has remained flat for weeks now. Either the virus is becoming less virulent or we're well into establishing herd immunity. It also helps that the virus was never a real threat to 99% of the population in the first place.
     
  21. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Both of those facts are easily refuted.

    1) The mortality rate in the United States - as defined by dividing the deaths by the total resolved (i.e. deaths + recoveries) - is north of 8% even after you adjust for some States refusing to announce recoveries.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    2) The average loss of life for those who die from Covid-19 is around 11-13 years, according to this study. https://www.sciencetimes.com/articl...ients-losing-13-years-lives-average-study.htm
     
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  22. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    We are no where near herd immunity. Even if you believe that the CDC estimate of 10x the reported confirmed is the accurate count, that places the US at around 8% exposed. Smilarly, there is zero evidence to support the notion that the virus has mutated in any significant manner.

    Now, the most likely reason that the death rate has dropped is two fold: 1) The number of cases dropped for a significant period of time and the current infections are more likely to be the younger and healthier. And 2) Doctors are getting better at handling the virus.
     
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  23. Ethereal

    Ethereal Well-Known Member

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    You've been making doomsday predictions the entire time and none of them came true. But I'm sure this time will be different.
     
  24. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    0.26% of the population is around 800,000 dead Americans.
     
  25. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    You are barking up the wrong tree if you think that none of his predictions have come true. Stat started to model and project out the US death totals around a month in advance. The US reached that total about one week ahead of his projection. The new projection for the next US milestone for deaths is currently running about 3 days ahead of the original projection.
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020

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