Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

..... since this will show that the mortality of the disease is falling off quickly, despite increasing infection rates.

 

Should see an increase in the next two to three weeks which is the normal lag time.

 

Make a note of the date and then check the new cases in about two weeks time.

 

That is a possibility but it relies upon the baseless presumption that fewer young people were infected and/or tested in any of the previous hotspots.

Personally I hope that there are fewer deaths for obvious reasons but until the data is in there is nothing that indicates that it will be any different at this point in time.

 

HERE the entire posting for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before. Reminder: New 7-day rolling average system in effect, posted 2020-06-029, 12:40 GMT +2, #10712.

During the run of the day on 2020-07-003 there were some other important analysis:
The world advances to 11 million C19 cases in 5.5 days, posted 2020-07-003, 10:17 GMT +2, #10834.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-07-002, posted 2020-07-003, 12:40 GMT +2, #10837.
Signs of a huge C19 day: Equatorial Guinea and Guatemala, posted 2020-07-003, 16:50 GMT +2, #10839.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Friday, 2020-07-003 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
ELEVEN MILLION​

֍* 11,182,576 *֍
+208,155 new C19 cases over the day before.
The USA goes over the +50,000 mark in new C19 cases for a third day in a row.
Brasil goes over the +40,000 mark in new C19 cases for a third day in a row.
India goes over the +20,000 mark in new C19 cases for a second day in a row.
South Africa adds +9,063 new C19 cases, closing in on +10,000. 4th "dreadnaught" nation in the making?
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +183,433 new C19 cases per day.
There are 131 nations with at least 100 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 528,409 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,167 of them were on this day.
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +4,619 deaths per day.
1,264 Brazilian, 679 Mexican, 616 US-American & 444 Indian deaths were recorded on this day.

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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

There is an 873 case disparity between the +new cases on my excel table and WorldOMeter. You already know what that means: that WorldOMeter adjusted some data out of the past one or two days before the day being analysed here.

The entire month of June saw +100,000 or more new C-19 cases per day and you can extend that statistic out to 37 out of the last 38 days, save 2020-05-031. The last 10 days in a row saw more than +160,000 cases per day and twice this week already the world has seen more than +200,000 new daily cases. I would say that it's a certainty that going under +100,000 cases a day is now a thing of the past, +160,000 cases per day is the norm right now and soon enough, +200,000 per day is going to become the norm.

Consider this: On Saturday, 2020-06-027 at 20:11 GMT +2 (my time in Germany), we broke over the 10-million barrier. 5 days, 13 hours and 26 minutes later, the world went over 11 Million - on 2020-07-003 at 09:37 GMT +2.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

The number of daily deaths on this Friday was one par with the Friday before, more than 3 and 4 Fridays ago, but less than 2 Fridays ago. The Friday death peak was very obvioiusly on 2020-06-019.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +900 C19 cases and above):
​

131-67-20-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are 131 nations in the "thousand club".

Of those 131, 67 nations are now in the "10,000 club", with Ivory Coast having crossed over the 10,000-line on 2020-07-003.

20 of those 67 nations are at at 100,000 or more. Very likely by the end of this week, Quatar (currently at 98,653) will also cross over the 100,000 line.

Of those 20, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil.

Concerning ranks 3 and 4: Russia currently has 667,883 C19 cases, but India, with 649,889, is now only -17,994 cases away from Russia (the day before, it was -33,998 ) and now growing almost three times as many daily C19 cases as Russia. On 2020-06-028, 6 days ago, I opened an excel-tab for India in my calculations and did an analysis here: Excel-table for and 1st analysis of INDIA, posted 2020-06-028, 21:54 GMT +2, #10616. In the analysis, I predicted that in the first week of July, India would surpass Russia in the overall rankings.

So, 6 of those 8-9 days have come and gone and it really looks as if India will indeed surpass Russia in in next two days, exactly within my prediction. Russia was averaging about 6,800 cases per day, India was averaging 18,900. 18,900 - 6,800 = 12,100 case gain per day for India over Russia. 17,994 / 12,100 = 1.49 days. So, yeah, probably on July 5th, July 6th at the very latest, India will surpass Russia and become the country with the 3rd highest C19 case-load in the world. Actually, since I began this prognistication, India's average has risen to +20,000 per day and Russia's has dropped to 6,700, so theoretically, India could actually surpass Russia today, July 4th if its numbers go through the roof, but it still looks to me more that Sunday, July 5th will be the day. One month ago, On 2020-06-002, Russia was 216,550 cases ahead of India. A lot can change in one month's time. India will very likely go over 1,000,000 C19 cases by the end of July, 2020.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

82-27-3​

82 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 72.

Of those 82, a record-setting 27 countries had +1,000 or more new cases, so many that I actually had to make TWO screenshots of this rubrik instead of just one. The day before, it was 22. Equatorial Guinea and Guatemala (which I indicated in an interim report on 2020-07-003) joined the +1,000 list, I believe, for the very first time. Israel was on the list for a second time.

Of those 27, 3 nations had over +10,000 new cases: USA, Brazil and India. The USA, with +54,904 new cases, went over the +50,000 mark for the third day in a row, while Brasil went over the +40,000 mark each day within the same time-period India has now gone over +20,000 new C19 cases for two days in a row, I am curious to see what today brings in India. It should also be noted that South Africa (+9,063) came in quite close +10,000 and if this trend continues, we we soon have not three, but rather, four "dreadnaught" nations recording +10,000 or more fresh C19 cases per day. @Derideo_Te

There can just be no doubt about it - in some corners of the world, with North, Middle and South America leading, C19 is advancing very quickly.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

85-37-10-1​

There are now 85 nations with 100 total deaths or more.

Of those 85, 37 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

Of those 37, there are now 10 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 10, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

Currently at 132,101 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 24.96% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 25.13%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 63,254 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average is: +879.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:



Brazil, Mexico, USA, India, Peru, Russia, Iran, UK, Colombia, Chile, South Africa and Iraq lead with the most daily deaths.

12 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 10 the day before). 6 of those 12 countries are from the Americas.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 30 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. The USA has now performed 36.8 million tests (800,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 20.5 million tests (300,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 3.3 million such tests. Brasil's positivity rate = 46.91%!

Facit: on 2020-07-003, the world once again sprung more than +200,000 cases, landing at 11.18 million total C19 cases.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. It is still logistical and not exponential, but there is a noticeable increase in overall daily C19 cases. That being said, new hotspots are verifiably emerging (Peru, Chile and Pakistan have now appeared on my mental radar screen). The average daily deaths in terms of raw numbers remains stabile, but due to the enormous amount of overall cases, the actual death rate continues to sink, which is in and of itself a very good sign. The problem is the huge increase in total cases, which will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise again, probably within the next 15-23 days. It's like a game of whack-a-mole. We've seen this pattern happen before.


-Stat

 

This is an update on Indonesia since they have reopened their national parks and just reported their highest rise in Daily New Cases which, as we have seen all too often, is how hotspots begin.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/latest-on-...esia-sees-highest-daily-rise-in-cases/1897803

What is of significantly greater concern is that the virus is targeting CHILDREN in Indonesia!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...h-number-covid-related-deaths-among-children/

Indonesia is the 4th largest nation in the world and one of the poorest where childhood malnutrition is rampant.

Furthermore this is probably only the tip of the iceberg since we have similar childhood poverty levels in India and Africa.

The odds are that there are a great many additional UNREPORTED deaths due to Covid19 that are being under counted because mortality rates among children in these areas is already high.

Don't ASSUME that ANYONE is safe from this deadly virus. It is smarter to send good wishes about a newborn via the internet than to do it in person.

The danger cannot be over stressed since 12% of households here in the USA are "food insecure" and that was BEFORE the massive job losses. What this means is that 1 out of every 8 Americans could be vulnerable due to malnutrition.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6214863/

What is now being reported in Indonesia could be happening here too. Wear your mask and social distance in public and wash your hands with soap and water.

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before. Reminder: New 7-day rolling average. Also, the USA is now being analyzed in 57 Units instead of 50 states.

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Friday, 2020-07-003 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

**2,890,588** (25.85% of worldwide total)
Only one state in the USA has less than 1,000 total C19 cases: Hawaii.
+53,399 new C19 cases (25.65% of worldwide haul)
In a row: 13 days of +30,000 or more / 9 days of +40,000 or more / 3 days of +50,000 or more
Rolling 7 day average = 48,233 new infections per day
12 states reported more than +1,000 new C19 infections on this day.
132,101 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (25.00% of worldwide deaths).
1/2 of all US states (25 of 50) now have 1,000 or more total deaths.
616 of those deaths were recorded on this day (11.92% of worldwide daily deaths).
Rolling 7 day average = 637 deaths per day
1,235,488 people have recovered, 1,522,999 are still sick, of them, 15,928 in critical condition.
The recovered statistic is rising again: margin = -9.95% vs. active cases (was: -11.40%)​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The numbers speak volumes. The days of maybe +20,000 to +25,000 new C19 cases per day are gone. We are moving very quickly to between +45,000 to +55,000 becoming the norm. This is a massive uptick, and it happened more quickly than people may think. Take a look for yourself at the rolling 7-day average and compare 2020-07-003 with the last weekly average, from last Sunday. Right now, we are averaging circa +48,000 cases per day. Why at least +45,000? Because there are now 9-12 dreadnaught states that are all reporting well over +1,000 fresh C19 infections every day, with no reduction in sight. Even on our slowest day, which should be on Sunday, we are very unlikely to go under +45,000 daily cases.

At this rate, the USA could go over 3 million C19 cases tomorrow, Sunday, 2020-07-005 but it is more likely that this will happen on Monday, 2020-07-006. We crossed over the 2-million line in the USA on 2020-06-011 so this time we will have advanced another 1,000,000 cases in 24-25 days time. Also, the math is easy at an average of +50,000 per day: every 20 days = 1,000,000 additional cases in total. That means 3 million cases every 2 months.

The actual number of daily deaths reported on 2020-07-003 is definitely down over the 4 Fridays before. This is EXCEEDINGLY good news, but the real concern (and I have been writing this for about a week now) here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 2.5-3.5 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, GA, TX, AZ and CA.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:
​

57: 55-41-16-7​

55 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 49 of those 53 Units are US States. At 975 C19 cases, Hawaii, the only state in the Union to be under +1,000, will probably cross over this line in the next week. However, at 311, the pacific Territories may take a considerably longer time to get there. Once those two cross over the line, then quite literally every Unit of the USA will be at +1,000 (or considerably more)

41 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. 38 of those 41 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs and the US Military. Currently at 9,636 cases, Oregon is up next. This kind of thing tends to happen in spurts: a bunch of Units (mostly, states) will slowly get close to a milestone and within days, they all jump over said milestone.

Of those 41, 16 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 16 of them are states. Tennessee and Indiana hve now surpassed Connecticut on the way to 50,000.

Of those 16, 7 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 7 of them are states. Pennsylvania is now just under 93,500 cases and slowly making its way toward the 100,000 line. The fact that Pennsylvania is reporting so few new cases in relation to other states is a very good sign and more evidence that the hotspots in Pennsylvania have died down.

New daily cases:

​

57: 54-40-12​

54 of 57 Units reported at least one new case, 50 of those 57 being states. The non-states with no new reported cases: the western territories, US Military and the Navajo Nation.

40 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 37 of those 40 Units were states. The non-states were: DC, Veterans Affairs and Federal Prisons.

12 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, all 12 of them being states. Florida lead with +9,488, Texas was 2nd with +7,343. California saw some relief, with "only" +4,509. Arizona, a state with far less population than California, almost tied with CA, with +4,433. Six Southern states followed, with between circa +2,800 and +1,700, but the surprise of the day was Ohio, which appeared on the list with +1,597 new cases. For Ohio standards, almost +1,600 new C19 cases is really bad news. Also, New York was on the top list again. If you look at the county list for NY, you may see some surprises. Finally, 8 of those 12 states are from the Deep South, 2 are from the West/Southwest, 1 is from the Midwest and 1 is from the NE. Also, 9 of those 12 are coastal states, the exceptions being AZ,OH and for the most part, NY. This is a geographical phenomenon.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 46-20-0​

46 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 42 of them are US States. The non-states: DC, Eastern Territories, Veteran Affairs and Federal Prisons.

Of those 46, 20 reported deaths in double digits or more, from +10 to +68. 19 of those 20 Units are US States. The non-state: Veterans Affairs

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 0 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 45-25-2
​

45 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 45 Units are US States. At 97, 93, 93, and 80 total deaths respectively, South Dakota, West Virginia, Idaho and North Dakota will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 45, 25 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths, with Alabama having gone over the 1,000-line on 2020-07-003. 24 of those 25 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Currently at 960 deaths, Rhode Island is inching up toward the +1,000-death line, it will likely happen within July, 2020. That being said, both South Carolina and Tennessee are experiencing more daily deaths than Rhode Island and may actually get there first.

Of those 25 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

​

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FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 132,101 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 127,000-136,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of DENTON or STERLING HEIGHTS, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen. Right now, we are 2,806 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us almost exactly 4 days ahead of the projection.

-Stat

 

It sure seems to me the the worst has past in Germany, Italy, France and Spain.

But I am personally interested to see what's happening in Peru, Chile, Guatemala, Honduras.... and of course, Mexico.

Also, Deri just mentioned Indonesia, another dreadnaught in the making.

 

I suspect, because the virus is just too damned unpredictable and far more complex than we originally thought. The parameters for a quintuple-threat are hard to calculate.

 

This possibility exists, although I find it the less likely of a number of possibilities. There are just too many in critical condition for that number to dive so steeply, imo.

 

I am hoping that there are fewer deaths because we learned from the onslaught in NY and NJ that ventilators are sometimes, but not always, the answer. Also, therapeutics have improved. Remdesivir has surely saved a huge number of lives and surely, medical teams across the USA are comparing notes as to what has worked, and what has not. As with almost any major illness, the hope is that our methods of treatment improve along the way. And yes, the rise in younger, healthier-to-begin-with patients may also be helping to reduce the mortality rate. I'll take any method that helps without causing collateral deaths.

I personally will be happy when the mortality rate is: ZERO. FOREVER.

In conclusion: it's going to be a while before I'm happy.

 

Wishing all of you a happy, healthy, SAFE, socially distanced, mask-wearing, hand-washed 4th of July!



Let's never forget as Americans, all of us, of all stripes, why we celebrate this day.

 

Russia reported its daily figures in the last hour. That county just went over 10,000 total COVID-19 deaths, making it the 11th nation in the world to cross over that line.
I'll be noting this in the 2020-07-004 report:



The excel table:

 

Lets see first how the border opening and the vacation time works out. I expect to see new spikes.

 

Because it is Bundesliga Cup Day.

Going for the Double.

 

Well, my mother's side of the family is very different from my grandmother's. While I'm here, stuck in my home. My mother actually went on a vacation to New Orleans(she'll be back Tuesday). And my sister just went to a beach today to celebrate the fourth of July.

Me? I'm screwed a million ways over lol.

 

And, I find that Trump used the 4th of July and a backdrop of a monument to successful presidents to issue a presidential message totally focused on his right wing culture war against Americans and promotion of divisiveness.

What happeed to the Republican party?

 

SIEG TOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GRÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

 

So, Florida decided that reported +10,000 new C19 cases was boring, so it upped the ante to +11,458.



Florida's daily haul for 2020-07-004 was almost as much as the ENTIRE C19 total for the state of Delaware (11,996). And that's only circa 1,000 less than the ENTIRE C19 total for the country of Denmark, just to put this in perspective.

I know of no state or province in any other land that has reported this many new C19 cases on just one day.

 

Apparently in Florida, one of the key drivers were farm workers who asked the government to assist them much earlier, but the response had been lacking in that regard. I think this uptick we're seeing in a substantial number of States show it's not easy to put out the 'embers'.

 

To see what IS possible to accomplish, one needs to look at Europe, New York, New Jersy, Connecticut, Massachussetts and others who have reduced COVID and kept it down.

Florica is making NO EFFORT AT ALL to reduce COVID.

Florida is not "embers" in any way. It's ground central, and is undoubtedly the source for spread from there to other states where grossly irresponsible vacationers help spread Florida's "contribution" across our nation.

 

Breaking news

Headline...

China downplays NEW Swine Flu pandemic

——————

Here we go again!

 

Those are some pretty big embers there in Florida.....

 

Exactly one week ago, at 20:11 GMT +2 (14:11 EDT), the world crossed over the 10 million mark in C19 cases.

Here again the screenshot from that moment:



And now, today, at 20:11 GMT +2 (14:11 EDT) - absolutely to the minute, one week later:





In exactly 7 days since we crossed over the 10 million mark, the world has added +1,288,926 (just under 1.3 million) C19 cases and also suffered +32,004 more deaths.