Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT
    There was 1 important analysis between the last USA analysis and this one:
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-005, posted 2020-08-006, 08:01 GMT +2, #11776.

    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Wednesday, 2020-08-005 (EOD = GMT +0):

    ****4,973,568****
    The USA will exceed 5,000,000 total C19 cases today, 2020-08-006.

    Also, India will exceed 2,000,000 total C19 cases today, 2020-08-006.
    Further, our World will exceed 19,000,000 C19 cases today, 2020-08-006.

    +55,148 new COVID-19 cases, definite case-reduction over the Wednesday before.
    FLORIDA has gone over 500,000 total C19 cases.
    GEORGIA has gone over 200,000 total C19 cases.
    Aaand, just -17,999 away, TEXAS is now closing in on the 500,000-mark.

    There are now 161,601 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,311 of them were recorded on this day.
    Mississippi is suffering more than people realize, we need to become aware of this.

    USA weekly average = 57,933 new infections & 1,109 deaths per day.

    2,540,139 are recovered (over 50%) / 2,271,830 are still sick, 18,424 of them are in critical condition.

    2020-08-004 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - excel table.png

    Less text.... more meaning.
    The USA sailed over the 4-million mark on 2020-07-021, and 15 days later, we are right on the cusp of 5 million..

    Furthermore, there was a time not all that long ago, on 2020-03-026, when it was a big deal that the world just went over 500,000 total C-19 cases. Now, 4.5 months later, not only one, but now, TWO US-states have gone over the 500,000 mark, with a third state likely to get there by next week at the very latest.

    There is a verifiable reduction in the average daily new C19 cases and on 2020-08-005 there was a slight decrease in average daily deaths. We can hope that this is a trend.

    The actual number of daily deaths, +1,131, is less than 2 of the Wednesdays before before but significantly more than the 2 Wednesdays before that, putting this Wednesday right in the middle of the 5. Interestingly enough, exactly the same thing just happened with the worldwide Wednesday death statistic.


    2020-08-004 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - work table.png
    By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was 1 unit/rubrik change, in total cases: FL

    It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

    Almost all of the text below this point will have disappeared - *poof* *gone*!

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-08-004 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - total cases.png
    2020-08-004 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - total cases.png

    Just to get some perspective: Worldwide, there are currently 45 nations with over +50,000 confirmed C19 cases, with the USA as a whole having almost 10 times as many cases as that baseline number. But in the USA alone, 27 states have over +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. Now, before you read on, take a minute and think about that data-point.​

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
    2020-08-004 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - new cases.png
    The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

    9 of the 14 states over +1,000 cases on this day are from the Deep South. Per capita, Mississippi is quickly rising in the ranks among C19 cases and deaths and may actually, percentually, be no. 1 right now.

    To illustrate the point: the population of Mississippi is 13 times smaller than California (although it's representation in the electoral college is only 9.2 times smaller, just to note...). Were the death rate in CA and MI to be commensurate to each other, CA's +5,559 new C19 cases +169 unfortunate deaths on 2020-08-005 would have translated to +427 new C19 cases and +13 deaths in Mississippi. Or, looking at it from the other perspective, Mississippi's +1,245 new C19 cases and +51 very unfortunate deaths would have meant +16,185 new C19 cases and +663 deaths in CA, so we should be thanking our lucky stars that these two states are not commensurate with each other in this way. The point is: a smaller state may be showing smaller raw numbers, but the actual percentage can end up being literally catastrophic for that smaller state, and exactly that is happening in Mississippi. And just to be clear, every single state (or, as I measure it, Unit) in the USA is important to me. I don't highlight one state more because it is "red" or "blue". I highlight it only in terms of how COVID-19 is developing in that state.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:

    2020-08-004 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - new deaths.png

    Re: Mississippi - see the text above, under new cases. It's important.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-08-004 COVID-19 EOD USA 006 - total deaths.png
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 161,601 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of FORT COLLINS, never to get it back again. Think about that.


    As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the milestones:

    -200,000 deaths on or around 2020-09-20 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).

    -Almost 237,500 deaths on Election Day, 2020-11-003. Without wanting to interject politics in this, no doubt the rising death-toll is going to be one of the top themes of the election, there is no getting around this.

    -250,000 deaths on or around 2020-11-018 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).

    -286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

    At current:

    2020-08-004 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - extrapolation.png
    This means that currently, we are +604 deaths over the extrapolation.

    IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2020
  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    From the US analysis above:


    Sorry, that abbreviation is a mistake. Mississippi is correctly abbreviated as MS, not MI. Was a simple typo.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2020
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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    It really could be both - a drop in positive tests in some areas and a lack of re-agents in others.

    Also, unless we know exactly where, and I mean, in pinpoint detail, the testing is occuring, this is all still trying to play darts with our backs to the board and with blindfolds on.
    We can only hope that the increased testing in, say, Florida, is happening where the hotpots in hospitalizations are occurring and not a result of the "bubble" having now been tested for the 800th time...

    It's not just that you test. If you are not going to be able to test 100% of the population all at once, then it is critical WHERE you test.
     
  4. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    I mentioned the anomaly when a bunch of South American nations pushed some of the usual nations from the top rankings the other day which prompted me to do a little research as to what might be happening in those places.

    Firstly to describe what is happening in Columbia as chaotic would be a compliment. The central government is weak and armed gangs have seized control of areas of the country where they impose the death penalty for failing to wear masks and social distance. There is nothing the central government can do stop them and the figures from those areas are unreliable to say the least so what we do know about Columbia might only be the tip of the iceberg.

    https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/07/15/colombia-armed-groups-brutal-covid-19-measures

    Next up is Peru which is one of the poorer nations in the world so access to healthcare is challenging. To give them credit they imposed an early and strict lockdown that did contain the initial surge. The problem being that it was just unsustainable to maintain a lockdown where 40% of households are forced to shop on a daily basis for food because they lack the facilities to store food in their overcrowded homes.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53150808

    Then we come to Argentina and TBH they failed because of politics more than anything else. As has been mentioned before American Soy crops that used to be sold to China directly now end up in places like Argentina where the crops are processed prior to shipping to China. That has come to a standstill as have other sectors of the Argentinian economy and that is why the politics came into play with those out of power demanding that the economy be reopened. The government had acted early and imposed a lockdown that was effective. In July they began lifting restrictions and reopening the economy which is why they have a relatively low Total Cases but are seeing a sharp rise in New Cases.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tering-argentinas-short-lived-political-truce

    There are lessons to be learned and needless to say it is the ordinary people who are paying the ultimate price for those lessons.
     
  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Rep. Rodney Davis (R, IL-13) has tested positive for COVID-19.
    Davis is 50 years old, pretty fit and his voting record in the HOR is sometimes more moderate.
    Davis just barely retained his seat in 2018, beating Betsy Londrigan by +0.76%.
    In 2020, it is going to be a rematch of the same two candidates.
    Betsy Londrigan was one of the first people out there to send him her best wishes for a speedy recovery, so not everything in politics is always ugly.

    Some more recent legislation he sponsored, also an interesing bi-partisan combination, to say the least. From his website:

    I wish Rep. Davis a swift recovery. It should be noted that Davis serves on a lot of the same committees as Louie Gohmert, who tested positive in the last days.
     
  6. Woogs

    Woogs Well-Known Member

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    Regarding Mississippi, the Governor just issued a state-wide mask order this week. He also limited bars to only serve until 11 pm. Casinos are exempt from the order on serving alcohol. Also, school started this week for many cities.

    So, state-wide mask order ..... good.

    Order concerning bars .... get your drink on early or go to the casino.

    School opening ...... a roll of the dice.

    Personally, I'm staying hunkered down. The above measures, along with schools opening, seem wholly inadequate for a red zone state, which Mississippi has become. I live on the Coast, which has 12 casinos and lots of folks that like to go out.
     
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    THE WORLD GOES OVER 19 MILLION CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES

    This was about 23 minutes ago and stayed stuck at that number until 5 minutes ago:

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide rollup to 19 million.png

    And this was 5 minutes ago:

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD World goes over 19 million.png

    So, as of 11:52 GMT +2 / 09:52 GMT +0 / 05:52 EDT our world is now at 19 million and climbing. I was watching the numbers rise while cooking lunch for myself and Statdaughter.

    Considering the rate of growth at current, the world will surely go over 19,200,000 cases by the end of this day and I suspect, will hit 20 million either at EOD on Sunday, 2020-08-009 or during the early part of the day on Monday, 2020-08-010.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2020
  8. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    Are you saying you don't like straight answers? I answered your query with "I have no idea" and you complain. :blahblah:
     
  9. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    Firstly, it wasn't my query and secondly, your direct answer was "The most obvious reason would be that the numbers have been cooked, likely for political reasons" and then you went on to state anecdotal events showing how the numbers were cooked with events which had nothing to do with those that died. No where in your response did you say you have no idea on the reason for the high excess deaths. Why are those posters who say that the numbers are fake can never explain why the number of excess deaths are so much higher than the average based on previous years.
     
  10. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

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    Seems like an awesome principal. Most of those I knew were just angry faces hiding out in their offices.
     
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  11. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    In the link that I provided earlier about Peru there was this chart about excess deaths.

    [​IMG]

    Peru is only officially attributing 20K of those deaths to the virus but it is clear that there is an unofficial death toll several magnitudes greater that has occurred.

    What possible other reason can there be for those deaths.

    We already know that states like FL are DELIBERATELY undercounting Covid19 deaths so we are only going to learn the actual devastating totals after this is all over.
     
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  12. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    Kind of like some places are deliberately overcounting Covid cases?
     
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  13. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    Nonresponsive. Not surprised given the source. Thanks for the block quote though, gets the word out to more lurkers... eh, well it would if anyone was taking this thread seriously for months. ROFLMFAO.
     
  14. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    How do you explain why we have so many deaths over expected this year? I keep asking this. I'm told that if someone falls off a cliff, it counts as a COVID death. Nobody will tell me, though, how many excess deaths by cliff falling have we had?

    Our death count from ALL causes is way up. Please explain how that happened.
     
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  15. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    You have no proof that any place is deliberately overcounting Covid cases or deaths.
     
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  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    INDIA GOES OVER 2,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES

    About 25 minutes ago:
    2020-08-006 COVID-19 India countdown to 2 million.png


    About 5 minutes ago:
    2020-08-006 COVID-19 India goes over 2 million C19 cases.png

    Doubling time from 1 million to 2 million: exactly 21 days, almost to the minute.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2020
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  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Governor Mike DeWine (R-OH) has tested positive for COVID-19.
    He is 73 years old, not overweight, and appears to be in good health otherwise.

    Wishes to him, the Governor of my state, for a full recovery.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2020
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    THE USA GOES OVER 5,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES.
    So, 10 minutes ago:

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 USA countdown to 5 million.png

    And 4 minutes ago:

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 USA goes over 5 million C19 cases.png

    The jump from 4 million to 5 million cases took 16 days.

    The doubling from 2.5 million to 5 million cases took 42 days, or 6 weeks.

    It took the USA 6 months to get from 1 case to 2.5 million and then it only took 6 WEEKS to double that sum.

    Food for thought.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2020
  19. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  20. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    Be careful if you say that they'll call you a conspiracy theorist. Notice how they never say that 80% of the death are people 65 or older with pre-existing conditions. Remember a couple months ago, the first outbreak in New York, they were sending covid-19 patients into assisted living homes?

    How many of New York's deaths were in assisted living?

    Listen to this turned into a political thing we're wearing a mask signifies your conformity I'm starting to doubt everything these people say.

    There's a point at which you don't care if people call you a conspiracy theorist anymore.

    Seems like the media doesn't want to let a good tragedy go to waste as is there M.O. one video company already has censored our President. Hopefully this will be the catalyst to remove the immunities social media conglomerates have.
     
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  21. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Do you believe that children are "virtually immune" to covid-19?
     
  22. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    Do you believe people should be censored?
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2020
  23. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    If they provide false and dangerous information, yes.
     
  24. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    So you don't agree with the first amendment?
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2020
  25. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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