Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    If you read today's worldwide analysis, then you know I spent a little bit of time on Israel, which is going into a 3-week total lockdown, starting this coming Friday. Friday evening is also the start of the Jewish New Year (Rosh Hashonah) and I will, for the very first time, not be able to post as of Friday evening until sometime on Sunday. In Israel, RH is celebrated for one full day, from sundown of the day before until past sundown of the 1st day of the year, which is the 1st of Tishrei. In the Diaspora, one is supposed to hold RH for two full days, but my timezone is literally only one hour away from Israel's, so that is nonsense for me.

    So, this is just a friendly head's up that on Saturday, I will not be posting an analysis for Friday. I may do a combi analysis on Sunday for both Friday and Saturday.

    Likewise, 10 days later, at Yom Kippur, I will disappear again, because on both of those holidays, writing, working and use of electricity (including electronic devices) is, according to Jewish Law, forbidden.

    So, with a heavy heart I must report to you that my more than 6 month streak of reporting literally every single day on this thread is about to end. LOL.

    Also, my professional life is picking up more and more since the calamity began and so it is getting harder and harder to get anything done. I am seriously considering moving from daily analyses to weekely analyses, with special postings as important events unfold. Or, I may post worldwide analyses every time the world jumps to the next million mile-marker. Wait and see.

    Wishing you all a good week. Stay safe, stay healthy.

    -Stat
     
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  2. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Mazel tov for the holidays.

    I was going to propose just making posts for significant events and then I realized that there is literally a new significant event on a daily basis. The alternative would be to just decide to do it once or twice a week instead as a way of managing your time since this Pandemic is not going anywhere for at least 3 months and probably closer to 6 BEFORE we see an effective vaccine start to take effect.
     
  3. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    I thought we were supposed to have over 1,000,000 dead?
     
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  4. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    How many 10s of thousand do you need ?
     
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  5. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Already 200k officially dead and the CDC is aware of another 60k that should be included in the immediate death toll.

    Then there is the discovery of the heart damage to 20% of everyone infected. Out of 6.75 million Cases that comes to another 1.35 million with serious medical conditions that will probably result in people dying sooner than they would have without the Pandemic.

    So yes, we probably will have over one million dead once the dust has settled and we can allow the scientists to do their work without political interference.
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
    Pre-analysis: excel tables for World, top 4 nations, posted 2020-09-014, 09:31 GMT +2, #12348.
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-013, posted 2020-09-014, 10:59 GMT +2, #12349.
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-013, posted 2020-09-014, 11:30 GMT +2, #12350.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Monday, 2020-09-014 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
    ֍֍********* 29,435,721 *********֍֍

    +260,267 new C19 cases over the day before, far more than the Monday before, heaviest Monday on record.
    TOTAL C19 cases: 164 nations with 1,000+, 93 with 10,000+, 55 with 50,000+, 34 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+.

    There have now been 932,445 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,459 of them were on this day.
    INDIA has reported more than +1,000 deaths per day for 14 days in a row and for a total of 18 of the last 21 days total.
    Currently at exactly 199,000 total deaths, the USA is poised to go over 200,000 C19 deaths today, 2020-09-015.

    Worldwide 7-day-rolling averages: a record shattering +279,273 new C19 cases per day / +5,127 deaths per day
    +1,054 Indian, +480 US-American, +454 Brazilian, +375 Argentinia and +259 Phillipinian new deaths were recorded.
    The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 60,710 (+20 over the day before)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD worldwide 000.png

    The big news right off the bat is the huge number of +cases on a Monday. At +260,267, this is far more than any Monday we have seen until now in COVID-19 history. Last week, starting at +197,092 on that Monday, the world ended up having two days in a row over +300,000 cases (Thursday and Friday, see excel table above). If we are starting this "heavy" into the new week, then I can imagine three days in a row of +300,000 instead of two. Also, the rolling average +cases (logically) has also reached an all-time high of +279,273 and is sure to rise considerably within this week. That average currently = +194 fresh C19 cases per MINUTE, every minute.


    The number of daily deaths (4,459) for the day currently being analysed was more than the Sunday before (9,254). The reason for the huge jump in Monday deaths in the week before was due to a backlog in death reporting in Ecuador, which you can re-examine here if you wish: Ecuador: large death count disparity explained, posted 2020-09-007, 12:52 GMT +2, #12669.

    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD worldwide 009 -rubrik worktable.png

    By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 2 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: French Polynesia and Eswatini.

    It could be helpful as the week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.


    Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +500 C19 cases and above):
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD worldwide 001 - total cases.png
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD worldwide 002 - total cases.png
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD worldwide 003 - total cases.png
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD worldwide 004 - total cases.png
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD worldwide 005 - total cases.png

    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD worldwide 006 - new cases.png

    After 5 days in a row of +90,000 or more, India dropped down to the +80,000 range on this day. That's the good news. The bad news is that India starts the week in the +80,000 range, where it started the week before at +75,000, about +6,000 more cases than the previous Monday. Surely, India will go over +90,000 many days this week and I see the distinct possiblity that it breaks into +6-digits at least once this week.

    The reporting out of Brazil is absolutely dismal and certainly a lot of lying is going on. They cannot hide the number of deaths, because the individual provinces, in defiance of the central government, keep reporting the deaths, but I now have no doubt that Bolsonaro's administration is trying its hardest to test the least possible and to suppress the number of positives that do show up. The total number of performed tests, officially stuck between 14.3 and 14.5 million for last 16 days, should tell you all you need to know about Brazil, right there.

    5 of the top 10 nations are from the Americas.

    Israel, which will go on lockdown on Friday of this week, has moved from rank 11/12 up to rank 8, setting a new national +case record, and on a Monday, to boot.

    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD worldwide 007 - total deaths.png

    The top 4:

    USA, total deaths: 199,000 / 21.34% of worldwide deaths (21.39% the day before), -1,480 from the 200,000-death-line. The USA will cross over the 200,000-death-line on 2020-09-015 or 2020-09-016 (at the very latest).

    Brazil, total deaths: 132,117 / 14.17% of worldwide deaths (14.19% the day before, for the 2nd time), -68,367 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 711 per day, from 2020-09-013 = +96 days from now: 2020-12,020.

    India, total deaths: 80,808 / 8.67% of worldwide deaths (8.59% the day before), -20,246 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,152 per day, from 2020-09-013 = +18 days: 2020-09-025. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

    Mexico, total deaths: 70,821 / 7.60% of worldwide deaths (7.60% the day before), -29,396 from the 100,000-death-line. No extrapolation for 100,000 deaths quite yet.

    Combined (482,746), the top four nations currently represent 51.77% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 51.78% the day before).


    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD worldwide 008 - new deaths.png

    When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

    Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 731 per day (the day before: 711)
    Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 781 per day (the day before: 753)
    Average daily deaths for India (current): 1,142 per day (the day before: 1,151)

    2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history: USA and Brazil. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three -or four- largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

    India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and has maintained it until current.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country:

    55 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 55, 9 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece, with Spain crossing over the 10,000,000-line on 2020-09-0014: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany, Spain andFrance. Currently at 9.87 million, Italy is next to cross over the 10-million line.


    END-FACIT: on 2020-09-014, the world travelled from 29.18 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 29.2, 29.3 and 29.4 million to land at 29.43 million. At this trajectory, the world will likely go over 30 million confirmed COVID-19 on Thursday, 2020-09-017 at the latest, but it could also happen tomorrow, 2020-09-016. Wait and see.

    -Stat
     
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-013, posted 2020-09-014, 11:30 GMT +2, #12350.
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-014, posted 2020-09-015, 09:46 GMT +2, #12356.

    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for Monday, 2020-09-014 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ****** 6,749,289 ******
    +40,831 new COVID-19 cases, more +cases than on the Monday before.
    There are now 199,000 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 480 of them were recorded on this day.

    The USA is now -1,000 away from a total of 200,000 officially recorded, certified COVID-19 deaths.
    The USA is likely to surpass 200,000 total COVID-19 today, 2020-09-015.

    USA 7-day-rolling average = 37,673 new infections & 781 deaths per day. Both stats are on the upswing again.
    14,104 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-9 over the day before).
    TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 93.2 million


    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    We are starting this week with more +cases in the USA than on the Monday before (Labor Day) and also on the Monday before that.

    A quote from today's worldwide report for 2020-09-014:

    So, there is no doubt that in terms of +cases, the world is again on an upswing and we are now seeing nominal evidence (completely apart from a potential fall wave due to Labor Day weekend) of an upswing in the USA as well. It may end up that the lull between the summer surge and the fall C-19 fling may be short-lived, at best. Food for thought.

    The number of deaths on this day (480) was less than on the Sunday before (284).

    THE BIG NEWS for the USA is that, according to WorldOMeter, with only 1,000 deaths to go, the USA really is poised to be the first nation on earth to hit the 200,000 total death mark. Excluding Tuesday one week ago (part of the Labor Day weekend effect), on the Tuesday before, on every Tuesday going back until 2020-07-014 (two months ago), the USA has had more than +1,000 Tuesday deaths, sometimes, considerably more than +1,000. Because of this, it's reasonable to project that the USA will likely have at least +1,000 deaths today and therefore go over the 200,000 mark. Either that, or it will come just short of the mark and go over it tomorrow, 2020-09-016, at the very latest.

    In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), there is a running case and death projection for the world until the end of 2020.

    Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that would have translated to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. However, (this note is as of 2020-08-030), the rate of daily cases has clearly slowed down in the USA and it looks more as if we will be working on 9 million instead of 10 million come election day. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.


    FLASHBACK TO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND:​

    [​IMG]

    This is an excerpt from the EXCEL table showing the Memorial Day weekend at the bottom highlighting the weekly averages in the 4 weeks that followed. Should be be that the behavior of Americans at Labor Day weekend parallel that of Memorial Day Weekend, then this Sunday, 2020-09-013, would rougly correspond to Sunday, 2020-05-031.

    Back then, we can see that in the fourth weekend after Memorial day, the cases started to really shoot up, causing the July summer surge as we know know it, but deaths had not started to rise yet, since deaths are obviously a lagging indicator.

    I am going to leave this graphic up for a number of weeks so that you can look to see if parallels are emerging, or not. Right now, just one week away from Labor Day Weekend, I would say that it is too early to say anything definitive yet. Let your own eyes do the walking...


    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - rubrik worktable.png

    By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 1 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day: KANSAS.

    The rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is locked-in (highlighted in purple), since it cannot possibly go any higher.

    It could be as each week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.



    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases.png
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases.png

    Just to note: California is now closer to 800,000 total C19 cases than it is to 700,000, while both Texas and Florida are closer to 700,000 total C19 cases than they are to 600.000. Also, the Navajo Nation is about to break over 10,000 total C19 cases.
    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - new cases.png

    This week began with Texas leading in +cases, then California and then TENNESSEE before rank 4 Florida.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - new deaths.png
    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - total deaths.png
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 199,000 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 197,900-236,600:

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than the total population of AMARILLO, and slightly less than the total population of COLUMBUS (the capitol city of Ohio) never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that.


    As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

    2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
    2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
    2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths
    (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
    2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

    At current:

    2020-09-014 COVID-19 EOD USA 006 - extrapolation.png

    This means that we are currently at +4,003 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 4.7 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is, for the second time in a row, lower than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,487), to note. I expected deaths to dip at the Labor Day weekend, which is of couse, a good thing, but does not necessarily mean that they will stay there. That's the problem. Even with the dip, I suspect that, only -1,000 away from the 200,000-line, the USA will cross that line on Tuesday, 2020-09-015, or at the very latest, Wednesday, 2020-09-016.

    IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2020
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    BTW, I forgot to indicate that today, 2020-09-015, India will go over 5 million C19 cases. It just went over 4 million cases on 2020-09-004, so India will have jumped 1 million C19 cases in 11 days, which will also be a world's record, faster than the USA.
     
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  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    INDIA GOES OVER 5,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES

    So, this happened today:

    2020-09-015 COVID-19 INDIA goes over 5 million C19 cases.png

    India just jumped 2 million cases, from 3 million to 5 million, in all of 24 days time.

    -Stat
     
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  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    According to WorldOMeter, the USA is currently at 199,887 deaths and California and Texas have barely reported in. The USA will most definitely cross over 200,000 deaths today, 2020-09-015.
     
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  11. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    But India already admitted they have no real idea how many people really had covid, have covid or have died of covid.
    They do not have enough testing, especially in the rural areas, were the health infrastructure is rather bad.
    Same for Mexico.

    I think it is ok to add 1/3 to the figures, thats how bad that infrastructure is in those countries.
    Same for all the other Central and South American countries.
     
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  12. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Donor

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    Not to forget, this is not over yet. We don't know how big the direct death toll will be. The Spanish Flu had three waves, and the second and third killed many more people than the first one. We are getting close to the winter again, there's been a lot of opportunities for more spread (school reopening, political rallies, more political protests, the upcoming elections, sports restarting, the major holidays) and there is also the threat of the twindemic if people get the flu on top of this.

    This is far from over and anybody ridiculing the total of deaths is calling it over way prematurely. It reminds me of the "Mission Accomplished" infamous banner.

    The University of Washington IHME has issued estimates of 400,000 before we can abate the contagion with vaccines, and even up to 600,000 if we stop all precautions. So we don't know yet what will happen.

    Yes, lately the cases have decelerated... but it has happened before, only to see the contagion picking up again. And it's happening as we speak in countries such as Israel, France, and Spain.

    Also what the detractors that say "only 200,000, I thought we were supposed to have 1,000,000 dead" don't understand, is that the epidemiology institutes never predicted that wed have 1,000,000 dead (or even 2,000,000 in the case of English epidemiologists). What they said was what a worst case scenario might be if no precautions whatsoever were adopted by the population. We were never "supposed" to have 1,000,000 deaths. That was just an estimate in the absence of any controls and any individual behaviors. So, a lot of people are appropriately afraid of this, wear masks, avoid restaurants and bars and other indoor crowded places, go out little just for essentials, stay home... so it hopefully won't be 1,000,000.

    Finally, people seem to ridicule this "prediction" as if wrong. "See, we didn't need a lockdown, only 200,000 died." Uh, the point of the lockdown was to bring that number down, or at least to flatten the curve so that the healthcare system didn't get overwhelmed. Therefore, the epidemiological measures are being criticized because... they worked! Then, they assume that containment is unnecessary... it's not a big deal... etc. Well, the case of Israel took care of that. The locked down, things got under control. They opened up, things went berserk again and now, starting this Friday, they are locking down again... So this false sense of security backfires.
     
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  13. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Donor

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    I wouldn't say "all." Uruguay and Chile, for example, are very developed countries. In Central America, Costa Rica and Panama are also fairly developed.
     
  14. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Uruguay is very special, it cracked down on the virus from day one.
    Chile and Argentina are very strange cases. I have family in Uruguay, Paraguay, Brazil, Chile and Argentina.
    I am very surprised by Chile's number, its the best organized country in South America.

    But there is something rather odd about Chile and Argentina, their numbers do not fit.
    Look at the reported cases and the death they have. They do not match up.
    The mortality rate is unbelievable low.
    Those are numbers, that make even Germany look bad, I know those countries, worked there, have family there and their health system is light years away from what Germany has.
    Except for the Urus, they are hot beds.

    I asked that question many times, in this thread, how do they count, because none of their figures match reality.

    Do you have Info about Ch and Arg ?
     
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  15. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Donor

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    Not really. I have many professional ties with the Brazilians from the Instituto Butantan and from the Fiocruz (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz); I also know people from three universities there, the Universidade de São Paulo (especially the Ribeirão Preto campus), the Universidade Federal de São Paulo (from the time they were still called Escola Paulista de Medicina), and the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. I've been to Brazil many times in academic missions of collaboration over the years, and ended up learning Portuguese, which by now I speak pretty darn well (it was easier for me to learn it, given its similitude to Italian).

    I've been to Argentina four times and to Uruguay once. Three of my trips to Argentina were as a tourist, which was also the case of my only trip to Uruguay. Only one of my trips to Argentina was for professional reasons but not really to particularly interact with the local medical scientists, but rather to attend an international symposium where I ended up interacting more with my Brazilian colleagues anyway). I've never been to Chile or to any other South American country except for Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay.

    But yes, I remember that I was impressed with how developed, clean, and efficient Uruguay was. I visited only two cities, but found both to be gorgeous: the capital city Montevideo, and the resort town Punta del Este. In Argentina, I've been to Buenos Aires, La Plata, Mar del Plata, and Rosario, and all four cities were also highly developed. In Paraguay I only visited one city, Ciudad del Este, their second largest city, which is quite messy. Of all the South American cities I've visited, that one was the worst. I mean, I went to the vicinity to visit the famous Iguaçu Falls, and decided to stretch into Ciudad del Este just to have a sense of Paraguay. I can't say I was thrilled.

    ------------

    Regarding development, the Brazilian city I know the best is São Paulo, and both that city and the State of São Paulo are highly developed. Sure, in the periphery of São Paulo there are messy areas and slums, but the core city itself is a world class city with exquisite restaurants, arts (great symphony, great opera house) and fine hospitals. Two of their hospitals, one public, one private, respectively the Hospital das Clínicas da USP and the Hospital Sírio-Libanês are among the highest quality hospitals in the entire world. The rest of the state looks even more developed and certain areas actually remind me of Germany. Campinas and Ribeirão Preto are for all practical purposes, first world cities. Areas like Campos do Jordão look and feel exactly like Europe.

    The State of São Paulo is responsible for a third of Brazil's GDP. That one state produces 1.221 trillion US dollars per year, and again, that state is as developed - or more - than most first world countries. With its 41 million inhabitants, São Paulo seems like an enclave of development in South America.

    When I say something about the Brazilians and their scientific assets, people here usually laugh and say "what? It's a messy South American country." They have no idea that São Paulo and its scientific institutions are as first world as it gets.

    Some pictures of São Paulo:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] c

    This is the countryside town in the State of São Paulo I was talking about, Campos do Jordão, which looks like Europe:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    This is the Hospital Sírio-Libanês; I'll tell you, this hospital is as good as the Mayo Clinic:

    [​IMG]

    This huge complex on the entire center and right side of the picture is the Hospital das Clínicas da USP:

    [​IMG]

    Here is their robotic surgery room:

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Back on March 10th I did my own estimates of mortality based upon what was known at the time and 4 days later the CDC announced estimates very close to my own. Not surprising since I was using their data for my estimates. ;) Yes, we both factored in the ranges depending upon the degree of compliance towards using the necessary precautions to prevent the spread of the virus.

    What neither the CDC nor I knew about at the time were the long lasting after effects that can shorten lives significantly. With this additional information that alters the estimates and not in a positive way. However a safe and effective vaccine widely distributed and accepted by the greater part of the population would mitigate the secondary death toll. Unfortunately a safe and effective vaccine is probably still 3 to 6 months away and there is no indication that it will be accepted by a majority of the population.

    So yes, you are right, we are still on the Covid19 roller-coaster and how we behave will be the final determining factor as to what is the ultimate death toll.

    As I have mentioned before surviving a global pandemic was never on my bucket list and the sooner it is over the better IMO.
     
  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-014, posted 2020-09-015, 09:46 GMT +2, #12356.
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-014, posted 2020-09-015, 10:09 GMT +2, #12357.
    India goes over 5 million C19 cases, posted 2020-09-015, 23:32 GMT +2, #12359.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Tuesday, 2020-09-015 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
    ֍֍********* 29,717,934 *********֍֍
    INDIA GOES OVER 5,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES
    THE USA GOES OVER 200,000 TOTAL DEATHS


    +282,213 new C19 cases over the day before, far more than the Tuesday before, heaviest Tuesday on record.
    Just under the +10,000 range, but still, exceedingly high +case counts in France and Spain - European lockdown coming??

    TOTAL C19 cases: 164 nations with 1,000+, 93 with 10,000+, 55 with 50,000+, 34 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+.

    There have now been 938,483 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,038 of them were on this day.
    INDIA has reported more than +1,000 deaths per day for 15 days in a row and for a total of 19 of the last 22 days total.

    Worldwide 7-day-rolling averages: a record shattering +284,255 new C19 cases per day / +5,343 deaths per day
    +1,283 Indian, +1,197 US-American, +1,090 Brazilian and +228 Mexican new deaths were recorded.
    The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 60,912 (+202 over the day before)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png

    The big news right off the bat is that the huge number of +cases we saw on Monday continued into Tuesday. At +282,213, this is far more than any Tuesday we have seen until now in COVID-19 history. Last week, starting at +197,092 on that Monday, the world ended up having two days in a row over +300,000 cases (Thursday and Friday, see excel table above). If we are starting this "heavy" into the new week, then I can imagine three, possibly even FOUR days in a row of +300,000 instead of "just" two. Also, the rolling average +cases (logically) has also reached an all-time high of +284,255 and is sure to rise considerably within this week, since the peak days of the week have historically been Thursday and Friday. The average mentioned above currently = +197 fresh C19 cases per MINUTE, every minute.

    The fact that India has crossed over 5,000,000 total C19 cases is less big news, as we have been seeing these astronomic daily figures coming out of India for weeks on end now. Currently at 5,018,034 total C19 cases, India, which just passed Brazil in total cases a little more than one week ago, is now +633,735 ahead of Brazil and -1,770,113 behind the USA. Right now, it is more behind the USA than it is ahead of Brazil. Likely, by the end of the week, that statistic will be turned inside-out. Stay tuned....

    And the saddest detail of today's analysis, though not unexpected, is that according to WorldOMeter, the USA has now surpassed 200,000 total C19 deaths. Here the USA C19 history:


    2020-03-015: the USA passed 1,000 C19 deaths
    2020-03-023: the USA passed 10,000 C19 deaths
    2020-04-024: the USA passed 50,000 C19 deaths
    2020-05-026: the USA passed 100,000 C19 deaths
    2020-07-027: the USA passed 150,000 C19 deaths
    2020-09-015: the USA passed 200,000 C19 deaths

    This means that the number of deaths from COVID-19 in the USA multipled TWO-HUNDRED-FOLD in exactly 6 months time, from 2020-03-015 to 2020-09-015.

    An extrapolation that I have running at the USA analyses projects that the USA will hit 250,000 deaths by 2020-11-018 (we are currently 5 days ahead of the projections) and 300,000 deaths by early January, 2021.



    The number of worldwide daily deaths (6,038 ) for the day currently being analysed was more than the Tuesday before (4,520).

    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - rubrik worktable.png
    By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 0 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day.

    It could be helpful as the week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.


    Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +500 C19 cases and above):
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 -total cases.png
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 -total cases.png
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003 -total cases.png
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004 -total cases.png
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 005 -total cases.png

    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006 -new cases.png

    After 5 days in a row of +90,000 or more, India dropped down to the +80,000 range on Monday. That's the good news. The bad news is that India is once again over +90,000 fresh C19 infections and we are only talking about Tuesday!

    The reporting out of Brazil is absolutely dismal and certainly a lot of lying is going on. They cannot hide the number of deaths, because the individual provinces, in defiance of the central government, keep reporting the deaths, but I now have no doubt that Bolsonaro's administration is trying its hardest to test the least possible and to suppress the number of positives that do show up. The total number of performed tests, officially stuck between 14.3 and 14.5 million for last 16 days, should tell you all you need to know about Brazil, right there.

    5 of the top 10 nations are from the Americas.

    Israel will go on national lockdown on Friday of this week. I talked with a buddy who serves in the IDF in Eretz Yisrael and he told me that the lockdown is not complete, that there are lots of loopholes the way it is written so that the "Ultras" (Ultraorthodox Jews) can still congregate for the High Holidays the way they want, otherwise, there would have been massive protests. So, either way, a lot of people in Israel are going to be very unhappy come Rosh Hashonah.

    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - total deaths.png

    The top 4:

    USA, total deaths: 200,197 / 21.33% of worldwide deaths (21.34% the day before). The USA is currently expected to hit 250,000 deaths Mid-November, 2020.

    Brazil, total deaths: 133,207 / 14.19% of worldwide deaths (14.17% the day before, for the 2nd time), -66,793 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 711 per day, from 2020-09-013 = +96 days from now: 2020-12,020.

    India, total deaths: 82,091 / 8.75% of worldwide deaths (8.67% the day before), -17,909 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,167 per day, from 2020-09-015 = +15.3 days: 2020-10-001. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

    Mexico, total deaths: 71,049 / 7.57% of worldwide deaths (7.60% the day before), -28,951 from the 100,000-death-line. No extrapolation for 100,000 deaths quite yet.

    Combined (486,544), the top four nations currently represent 51.84% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 51.78% the day before).


    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 008 - new deaths.png

    When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

    Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 813 per day (the day before: 731)
    Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 944 per day (the day before: 781)
    Average daily deaths for India (current): 1,167 per day (the day before: 1,142)

    2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history: USA and Brazil. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three -or four- largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

    India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and has maintained it until current.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country:

    56 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Jordan crossing over the 1,000,000-test-line on 2020-09-015; of those 56, 9 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany, Spain and France. Currently at 9.87 million, Italy is next to cross over the 10-million line.


    END-FACIT: on 2020-09-015, the world travelled from 29.43 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 29.5, 29.6 and 29.7 million to land at 29.71 million. At this trajectory, the world will likely go over 30 million confirmed COVID-19 on Thursday, 2020-09-017 at the latest, but it could also happen today, 2020-09-016. Wait and see.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2020 at 3:19 AM
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-014, posted 2020-09-015, 10:09 GMT +2, #12357.
    India goes over 5 million C19 cases, posted 2020-09-015, 23:32 GMT +2, #12359.
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-015, posted 2020-09-016, 09:16 GMT +2, #12367.

    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for Tuesday, 2020-09-015 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
    ****** 6,788,147 ******

    THE USA SURPASSES 200,000 TOTAL, CONFIRMED COVID-19 DEATHS

    [​IMG]

    +38,858 new COVID-19 cases, more +cases than on the Tuesday before.
    There are now 200,197 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,197 of them were recorded on this day.
    USA 7-day-rolling average = 39,131 new infections & 881 deaths per day. Both stats are on the upswing again.
    14,165 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (+61 over the day before).
    TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 93.6 million


    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    Apologies: the date-stamp I placed on all of today's screenshots say "GMT +2", it should be "GMT +0" - a simple clerical error. Oops.

    In honor of 200,000 dead, very little text after this point today. May their memory be a blessing to all of us.

    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - rubrik worktable.png

    By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 2 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day: HAWAII & ARKANSAS.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases.png
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases.png
    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - new cases.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - new deaths.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD USA 004a - total deaths.png
    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD USA 004b - total deaths.png
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 200,197 total US deaths from COVID-19.

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of the total population of COLUMBUS (the capitol city of Ohio) never to get it back again.

    [​IMG]


    As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

    2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
    2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
    2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths
    (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
    2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

    At current:

    2020-09-015 COVID-19 EOD USA 006 - extrapolation.png

    This means that we are currently at +4,350 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 5.11 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,135), to note. As you can see, the USA hit the 200,000 death mark five days ahead of the milestone-projections.

    IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2020 at 3:39 AM
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  19. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Donor

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    Yes, I forgot to comment on what you correctly said, that people forget to factor in the possible future death toll from late complications such as heart failure and others. I agree with everything else you said above, and the lack of trust in a vaccine is really something that may end up killing a lot of people. They need to realize that vaccines are going through appropriate phase 3 trials so if one is approved it will be much safer than a natural infection by the virus itself.
     
  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Just three days ago, on Sunday, 2020-09-013, the world went over 29 million C19 cases.

    Now, 69 hours later: 29,983,642

    The world is going to go over 30 million C19 cases today and it will have done in in all of three day's time, setting a new, gruesome record in C19 history.

    And in spite of this, because we are already at extremely high total numbers to begin with, a jump of +300,000 cases per day is not even close to exponential growth.
     
  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Multiple White House staffers have tested positive for COVID-19.

    The ENTIRE Israeli delegation that just flew in today is now in quarantine.
     
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  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The exact number of WH staffers who have tested positive for C19 since August 1st = 33.
     
  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-015, posted 2020-09-016, 09:16 GMT +2, #12367.
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-015, posted 2020-09-016, 09:36 GMT +2, #12368.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Wednesday, 2020-09-016 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
    ֍֍֍ 30,026,460 ֍֍֍
    THE WORLD GOES OVER 30,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES


    +308,526 new C19 cases over the day before, far more than the Wednesday before, heaviest Wednesday on record.
    Over the +10,000 range, with the other 4 nations: Spain - European lockdown coming??

    TOTAL C19 cases: 165 nations with 1,000+, 94 with 10,000+, 55 with 50,000+, 34 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+.

    There have now been 944,719 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,236 of them were on this day.
    INDIA has reported more than +1,000 deaths per day for 16 days in a row and for a total of 20 of the last 23 days total.

    Worldwide 7-day-rolling averages: a record shattering +287,373 new C19 cases per day / +5,344 deaths per day
    +1,151 US-American, +1,139 Indian, +967 Brazilian, +629 Mexican & +264 Argentinian new deaths were recorded.
    The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 61,213 (+301 over the day before)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png

    The big news right off the bat is that the huge number of +cases we saw on Monday continued into Tuesday and again into Wednesday, but this time, on Wednesday, the world already broke the +300,000 barrier (in the week before, it first happened on Thursday). At +308,526, this is far more than any Wednesday we have seen until now in COVID-19 history. The 7-day rolling average in +cases = +200 fresh C19 cases per MINUTE, every minute.

    The fact that India has crossed over 5,000,000 total C19 cases is less big news, as we have been seeing these astronomic daily figures coming out of India for weeks on end now. Currently at 5,115,893 total C19 cases, India, which just passed Brazil in total cases a little more than one week ago, is now +694,707 (the day before: +633,735) ahead of Brazil and,-1,712,408 (the day before: -1,770,113) behind the USA. Right now, it is more behind the USA than it is ahead of Brazil. Likely, by the end of the week, that statistic will be turned inside-out. Stay tuned....

    An extrapolation that I have running at the USA analyses projects that the USA will hit 250,000 deaths by 2020-11-018 (we are currently 5 days ahead of the projections) and 300,000 deaths by early January, 2021.


    The number of worldwide daily deaths (6,236) for the day currently being analysed was more than the Wednesday before (6,225).

    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - rubrik worktable.png
    By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 1 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Malaysia. But there was also a retroactive nation-rubrik change for 2020-09-015: Martinique.

    It could be helpful as the week develops to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.


    Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +500 C19 cases and above):
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 - total cases.png
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 - total cases.png
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003 - total cases.png
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004 - total cases.png
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 005 - total cases.png

    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006 - new cases.png

    India hit a record-breaking near +98,000 (+97,859) new C19 cases on this day and is well on it's way to going over +100,000 daily cases very soon.

    5 of the top 10 nations are from the Americas.

    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - total deaths.png

    The top 4:

    USA, total deaths: 201,348 / 21.31% of worldwide deaths (21.33% the day before). The USA is currently expected to hit 250,000 deaths Mid-November, 2020.

    Brazil, total deaths: 134,174 / 14.20% of worldwide deaths (14.19% the day before, for the 2nd time). Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 711 per day, from 2020-09-013 = +96 days from now: 2020-12,020.

    India, total deaths: 83,230 / 8.81% of worldwide deaths (8.75% the day before), -16,770 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,167 per day, from 2020-09-015 = +15.3 days: 2020-10-001. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

    Mexico, total deaths: 71,678 / 7.59% of worldwide deaths (7.57% the day before). No extrapolation for 100,000 deaths quite yet.

    Combined (490,430), the top four nations currently represent 51.91% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 51.84% the day before).


    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 008 - new deaths.png

    When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

    Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 789 per day (the day before: 813)
    Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 873 per day (the day before: 881)
    Average daily deaths for India (current): 1,163 per day (the day before: 1,167)

    2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history: USA and Brazil. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three -or four- largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

    India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and has maintained it until current.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country:

    57 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with IRELAND crossing over the 1,000,000-test-line on 2020-09-016; of those 57, 10 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece, with Italy crossing over the 10,000,000-line on 2020-09-016: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Italy and France.


    END-FACIT: on 2020-09-016, the world travelled from 29.71 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 29.8, 29.9 and 30.0 million to land at 30.03 million. At this trajectory, the world will likely go over 31 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on 2020-09-020. Wait and see.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2020 at 4:04 AM
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  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-015, posted 2020-09-016, 09:36 GMT +2, #12368.
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-016, posted 2020-09-017, 09:51 GMT +2, #12373.

    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for Wednesday, 2020-09-016 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
    ****** 6,828,301 ******


    +40,154 new COVID-19 cases, more +cases than on the Tuesday before.
    There are now 201,348 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,151 of them were recorded on this day.
    Four states reported more than +100 deaths, Arkansas was among them for the 1st time ever.

    USA 7-day-rolling average = 39,832 new infections & 873 deaths per day. +New infections are on the upswing again.
    14,157 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-8 over the day before).
    TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 94.4 million


    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    We can see that from the last weekly average (Sunday, 2020-09-013), both major metrics of +new cases and +daily deaths are on the upswing.



    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - rubrik worktable.png

    By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 0 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 -total cases.png
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 -total cases.png

    I forgot to mention 2 days ago that Texas has now gone over 700,000 cases. Soon, of the three dreadnaught states, we will have California in the 800,000s, Texas in the 700,000s and Florida in the 600,000s.​
    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 -new cases.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - new deaths.png

    I mentioned Arkansas in the big headlines at the top of this quick analysis.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - total deaths.png
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 201,348 total US deaths from COVID-19.

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of slightly more than the the total population of YONKERS and slightly less than the total population of GLENDALE, never to get the one or the other back again.




    As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

    2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013). 200,000 deaths were reached 5 days before, on 2020-09-015.
    2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
    2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths
    (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
    2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

    At current:

    2020-09-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 006 - extrapolation.png

    This means that we are currently at +4,651 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 5.5 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,452), to note. As you can see, the USA hit the 200,000 death mark five days ahead of the milestone-projections.

    I know it may be tiring to see these statistics all the time, but I do think it's important to follow the data-path every day and to put it in print, for posterity's sake, so that the naysayers cannot say nay without looking totally ignorant.

    IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2020 at 4:13 AM
    Derideo_Te and Sallyally like this.
  25. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Starting to see some shortages in generic drugs. I suspect it's because of the problems in India.
     

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