Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    Yep, carelessness is the thing that can undo all the good that’s achieved.
     
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  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    COVID-19 stats for Friday, 2020-10-016 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Worldwide & top 5 nations:

    As indicated 2 weeks ago: only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top 4 nations (all over 1,000,000 cases) throughout the week. I will let the tables and screenshots pretty much speak for themselves and you can interpret them for yourselves as you wish. This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all a good weekend.

    WORLDWIDE:
    ֍֍֍********* 39,566,249 *********֍֍֍
    FOR CLARITY'S SAKE, THE WORLD JUMPED OVER 39 MILLION JUST THE DAY BEFORE
    +413,431, 2ND DAY IN A ROW OVER +400,000 CONFIRMED C19 INFECTIONS
    RECORD-SHATTERING:

    11 NATIONS WITH OVER +10,000 DAILY CASES, 45 NATIONS WITH OVER +1,000 DAILY CASES
    THE WORLD WILL GO OVER 40 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON SUNDAY, 2020-10-018
    I'VE ADDED SPAIN, JUST UNDER 1,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 CASES, TO MY DAILY TRACKING
    AVERAGE DEATHS ARE STEADY


    2020-10-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png

    2020-10-016 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - rubrik worktable.png

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Worldwide view for 2020-10-016 by daily +cases:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    USA:

    ******** 8,288,278 ********
    +71,963, THE USA'S FIRST TIME OVER +70,000 SINCE 2020-07-031, 2.5 MONTHS AGO.
    THE USA IS BACK AT RANK 1 IN +CASES FOR THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW

    WASHINGTON STATE IS THE 37TH STATE TO GO OVER 100,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES
    THE US-MILITARY GOES OVER 100 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 DEATHS
    MISSOURI HAS BECOME A VERIFIABLE HOTSPOT, ILLINOIS IS GETTING HOTTER AND HOTTER
    BOTH DAKOTAS HAVE THE HIGHEST PER CAPITA INFECTION RATE IN THE COUNTRY


    2020-10-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    2020-10-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - rubrik worktable.png

    2020-10-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases.png
    2020-10-016 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases.png


    INDIA:
    ******* 7,430,635 *******
    FOR THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW, INDIA'S +CASE COUNT IS NOW BEHIND THE USA

    2020-10-016 COVID-19 EOD INDIA 000.png

    BRAZIL:
    ***** 5,201,270 *****
    BRAZIL HAS NOT UPDATED ITS TOTAL ADMINISTERED C19 TEST STATISTIC IN THE LAST 24 DAYS.


    2020-10-016 COVID-19 EOD BRAZIL 000.png

    RUSSIA:

    * 1,369,313 *
    RUSSIA WENT OVER +10,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS FOR THE 13TH DAY IN A ROW
    AT +15,150, RUSSIA SETS A NEW DAILY +CASES RECORD
    MOSCOW IS NOW A *WORLDWIDE* MAJOR HOTSPOT, COMPLETE LOCKDOWN IS EXPECTED SOON
    AVERAGE DAILY DEATHS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN IN RUSSIA

    2020-10-016 COVID-19 EOD RUSSIA 000.png


    SPAIN:
    982,723

    SPAIN'S DAILY CASE REPORTING HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT
    MANY, MANY CASES HAVE BEEN RETROACTIVELY ADDED
    THIS IS WHY ALL OF A SUDDEN, SPAIN IS NOW ON THE CUSP TO 1,000,000 CASES
    SPAIN WILL LIKELY GO OVER 1 MILLION ON SUNDAY, 2020-10-018, OR MONDAY AT THE VERY LATEST

    2020-10-016 COVID-19 EOD SPAIN 000.png

    There can now be no doubt about it: the the COVID-19 FALL WAVE is already here for people living in the Northern Hemisphere. It hit one month earlier than I was thinking would be the case.

    -Stat
     
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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Good project, Bro.
     
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  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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  5. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    We still have voting, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Xmas holidays, New Year and Skiing season WITHOUT any viable vaccine available nor likely to be available nationwide for the next 9 months.

    Don't drop your guard.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2020
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I would really like to see that.

    To be honest, this is one of the best, most hard-hitting postings on C19 that I've seen to day.

    We may be getting tired of C19, but C19 does not tire.
     
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    BINGO.

    The temptation to think "oh, well, I'll only be mingling just one time" is enough....

    I suspect that Zoom is going to make killer profits during the winter...
     
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Behind the scenes, Germany is going on full red-alert.

    The cases are jumping far too fast for Germans' tastes, so people are waking up to the fact that this is indeed a fall wave very quickly.

    In Köln, they literally have a city map where all streets marked in red means that you must wear a mask while on that street in public all the time, 24/7. The red covers about 3/4 of the city, so you can essentially say that 1.6 million people now have to keep their masks on all the time.

    German law say that you cannot wear a mask while driving a car if you are the driver, because if a speed camera catches you speeding, they need a full view of your face to prove that it was you who sped. But people want that law to be changed very quickly, so that drivers can also wear masks while they are driving.

    More details about this stuff later, I need to get to work now.
     
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  9. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    The problem with spot rules is that people will just go to the spots without them and accelerate the spread there. It is a problem the UK is about to face--Well if I can go to the pub here, I will just drive over there to the pub.
     
  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Indeed, I agree with you, that could be a problem. But the province of NRW (Nordrhein-Westfalen) just issued some pretty stark rules for the next 2 weeks and they apply throughout the entire province.

    Also, welcome to this thread. Glad you are here.
     
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  11. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    You are correct.

    In addition, in my Northern state, since the last two weeks, people had running noses, some have been sneezing, and others had the less common symptoms of Covid19, thus, is it Covid19, the common cold, or the flu, and for said reasons, how many more people will want to be tested.....”just in case”?
     
  12. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    The reason why Guthrie debated Trump

    Transcript

    On the pandemic.....

    Trump; talk talk talk.....it’s rounding the corner.....talk talk talk

    Guthrie; I want to pick on something you just said. You said We’re rounding the corner

    Trump; I BELIEVE we’re rounding the corner, yes
     
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  13. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    The reason why Guthrie debated Trump

    Transcript;

    Trump’s analogy;

    The UK is up 2,500%, the EU is up 722%, and the United States is down 21%.

    Well of course!

    Every country who haven’t had a “Summer Wave” like the U.S., have brought down their Covid19 daily cases to LOW numbers, thus, for from 500 daily cases to 5,500 daily cases is a 1,000% increase.

    However, in the U.S, and after our first wave, our daily cases have remained above 20,000, thus, from our LOW 20,000 daily cases to 70,000 daily cases is a 250% increase. BUT, from a low of 500 daily cases, we’re up 14,000%.























     
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  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    COVID-19 stats for Saturday, 2020-10-017 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Worldwide & top 5 nations:

    As indicated 2 weeks ago: only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top 4 nations (all over 1,000,000 cases) throughout the week. I will let the tables and screenshots pretty much speak for themselves and you can interpret them for yourselves as you wish. This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all a good weekend.

    WORLDWIDE:
    ֍֍֍********* 39,939,096 *********֍֍֍
    +372,847

    THE WORLD WILL GO OVER 40 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES TODAY, 2020-10-018
    I'VE ADDED SPAIN, JUST UNDER 1,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 CASES, TO MY DAILY TRACKING
    AVERAGE DEATHS ARE STEADY

    2020-10-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png

    2020-10-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - rubrik worktable.png

    2020-10-017 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 - total cases.png

    USA:

    ******** 8,342,665 ********
    +54,387, RANK 2 IN DAILY +CASES, BEHIND INDIA
    TENNESSEE & INDIANA WERE IN THE TOP 5 +CASES STATES ON THIS DAY

    2020-10-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    2020-10-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - rubrik worktable.png

    2020-10-017 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases.png


    INDIA:
    ******* 7,492,727 *******
    +62,092
    INDIA HAS REGAINED THE LEAD IN THE DAILY +CASE COUNT OVER THE USA


    2020-10-017 COVID-19 EOD INDIA 000.png

    BRAZIL:
    ***** 5,224,362 *****
    BRAZIL HAS NOT UPDATED ITS TOTAL ADMINISTERED C19 TEST STATISTIC IN THE LAST 25 DAYS.


    2020-10-017 COVID-19 EOD BRAZIL 000.png

    RUSSIA:

    * 1,384,235 *
    RUSSIA WENT OVER +10,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS FOR THE 14TH DAY IN A ROW
    MOSCOW IS NOW A *WORLDWIDE* MAJOR HOTSPOT, COMPLETE LOCKDOWN IS EXPECTED SOON
    AVERAGE DAILY DEATHS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN IN RUSSIA

    2020-10-017 COVID-19 EOD RUSSIA 000.png


    SPAIN:
    982,723

    2020-10-017 COVID-19 EOD SPAIN 000.png
     
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  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    According to WorldOMeter, on 2020-10-018 at 11:27 GMT +2 / 05:27 GMT +0 / 14:11 ET, the world went over 40,000,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases:


    2020-10-018 COVID-19 the world goes over 40 million COVID-19 cases.png

    This means that from Saturday, 2020-06-027 to Sunday, 2020-10-018, 16 weeks + 1 day (113 days), the number of confirmed infections across our world quadrupled, from 10,000,000 to now 40,000,000.

    -Stat
     
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  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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  17. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    Pre-analysis tables for the Sunday of the week ending, 2020-10-018 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Worldwide & top 8 nations:

    As indicated 3 weeks ago: only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top 8 nations (all over 1,000,000 cases) throughout the week. I will let the tables and screenshots pretty much speak for themselves and you can interpret them for yourselves as you wish. Thee more nations were added to the 5 already being tracked: Argentina, France and Columbia. Spain was added to the tracking 2 days ago.

    This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all a good new week.

    WORLDWIDE:
    ֍֍֍֍ 40,264,222 ֍֍֍֍
    +325,126, highest Sunday +case-load to date-in C19 history

    THE WORLD WENT OVER 40 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON 2020-10-018
    I'VE ADDED ARGENTINA, FRANCE and COLOMBIA TO MY DAILY TRACKING
    AVERAGE DEATHS ARE STEADY

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - rubrik worktable.png

    USA:

    ******** 8,387,799 ********
    +45,134, RANK 2 IN DAILY +CASES BEHIND INDIA FOR THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW
    THE TOP 5 +CASES STATES ON THIS DAY: IL, TN, TX, FL and NC (CA not in the top 5)

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    INDIA:
    ******* 7,548,238 *******
    +55,511, decidedly less +cases than on the Sunday before
    INDIA REGAINED THE LEAD IN THE DAILY +CASE COUNT OVER THE USA THE DAY BEFORE


    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD INDIA 000.png

    BRAZIL:
    ***** 5,235,344 *****
    BRAZIL HAS NOT UPDATED ITS TOTAL ADMINISTERED C19 TEST STATISTIC IN THE LAST 26 DAYS.


    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD BRASIL 000.png

    RUSSIA:

    * 1,399,334 *
    RUSSIA WENT OVER +10,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS FOR THE 15TH DAY IN A ROW
    MOSCOW IS NOW A *WORLDWIDE* MAJOR HOTSPOT, COMPLETE LOCKDOWN IS EXPECTED SOON
    AVERAGE DAILY DEATHS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN IN RUSSIA

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD RUSSIA 000.png


    ARGENTINA:
    989,680
    +191,194 new C19 cases in 2 weeks time.
    Argentina will go over the million mark today, 2020-10-019, or tomorrow at the latest.

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD ARGENTINA 000.png

    SPAIN:
    982,723
    +110,447 new C19 cases in 2 weeks time.
    Over 2 days, Spain's statistics have not changed. They will this week.
    Spain will go over the million mark within this week.

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD SPAIN 000.png

    COLOMBIA:
    959,972
    +104,520 new C19 cases in 2 weeks time.
    Colombia is very likely to go over the million mark at the end of this week.


    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD COLOMBIA 000.png
    FRANCE:
    897,034
    +277,874 new C19 cases in 2 weeks time.
    France will go over the million mark within this week.

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD FRANCE 000.png
     
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  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for the week of 2020-10-012 through 2020-10-018
    (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ֍֍֍֍ 40,264,222 ֍֍֍֍
    THE WORLD CROSSED OVER 38, 39 & 40 MILLION CONFIRMED TOTAL COVID-19 CASES IN THIS WEEK

    +2,527,349 new C19 cases over the week before (it was +2,346,726 the week before).
    TOTAL C19 cases: 165 nations with 1,000+, 109 with 10,000+, 65 with 50,000+, 45 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+

    There have now been 1,118,167 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +36,915 of them occured in this week (+39,703 the week before).
    ---------------------------------------------------------

    Worldwide WEEKLY rolling averages: record-shattering +361,050 new C19 cases per day / +5,274 deaths per day
    +5,458 Indian, +5,035 US-American, +3,399 Brazilian, +2,417 Mexican & +2,399 Argentinian new deaths were recorded in this week.
    The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 71,972 (+3,113 over the week before)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    [​IMG]

    It was a huge newsweek on the COVID-19 front...foremost that the world is now jumping 1 million C19 cases in somewhat less than every three days. Also big news is the fact the the world jumped over +400,000 cases two days in a row in this week.

    If you compare the weekly average of this week before to the preceeding week, you will see that the average +daily cases rose (+361,050 vs +335,248 the week before, a significant jump), but the average deaths fell somewhat (+5,672 the week before to +5,274 now). +361,050 C19 cases per day = 251 fresh infections PER MINUTE.

    The week starting today appears that it may an even bigger newsweek, since it is very likely that within this week, four nations will go over the million mark, probably in this order:

    Argentina, Spain, France and Colombia:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    This will literally double the size of the dreadnaught nations from 4 to 8 all in one week. The nation experiencing the most +cases, obviously getting seriously hammered by the fall wave, is France. So, even though France is under 900,000 cases right now, it is going to pass by Colombia in the next days pretty easily.

    [​IMG]

    By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. You can see that for the entire week, there were 13 nation-rubrik changes: Mozambique, Paraguay, Sweden, Uganda, Luxembourg, Kyrgysztan, Slovenia, Guatemala, Czechia, Ukrain, Georgia, Hungary and Iraq.

    The way the rubrik table is presented, you can easily (and mathematically) see how the week has developed until its end.

    Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +1,000 C19 cases and above):
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 -total cases.png
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 -total cases.png
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003 -total cases.png
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004 -total cases.png

    India, which passed Brazil in total cases exactly six Sundays ago, is now +2,312,894 (the Sunday before: +2,042,321) cases ahead of Brazil and -839,561 (the Sunday before: -872,699) cases behind the USA. As you can see, India has long crossed over the 2/3 point between the USA and Brazil and is now far less cases behind the USA than it is ahead of Brazil.


    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006 -new cases.png

    The most important news here is that Russia has maintained over +10,000 new C19 cases for 15 days in a row now. Russia, which claims to have a working vaccine that is going on trials in a number of former Soviet-satellite states... how can this be?

    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - total deaths.png

    The top 4:

    USA, total deaths: 224,730 / 20.10% of worldwide deaths (20.32% on the Sunday before). The USA is currently expected to hit 250,000 deaths Mid-November, 2020.

    Brazil, total deaths: 153,905 / 13.76% of worldwide deaths (13.92% on the Sunday before). Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 657 deaths per day, from 2020-10-014 = New Years Day 2021.

    India, total deaths: 114,642 / 10.25% of worldwide deaths (10.10% on the Sunday before). India will likely go over 200,000 C19 deaths around January 12, 2021.

    Mexico, total deaths: 86,059 / 7.70% of worldwide deaths (7.74% on the Sunday before). No extrapolation for 100,000 deaths quite yet.

    Combined (579,336), the top four nations currently represent 51.81% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 51.82% the day before).

    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 008 - new deaths.png

    5 of the top 8 nations are from the Americas.

    India's rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more), first recorded on 2020-09-005, went under an average of +1,000 starting on Wednesday, 2020-10-006.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country:

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 -total tests performed.png
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 010 -total tests performed.png

    61
    nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 61, 12 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Turkey and UAE.


    END-FACIT: Logistical case growth, not exponential, but still, we are accumulating a huge number of C19 cases per day.

    -Stat

    Appendix - There were some important analyses thoughout the week from 2020-10-012 through 2020-10-018:
    Worldwide EOW analysis for 2020-10-011, posted 2020-10-012, 10:00 GMT +2, #12572.
    USA EOW analysis for 2020-10-011, posted 2020-10-012, 10:26 GMT +2, #12573.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-012, posted 2020-10-013, 09:44 GMT +2, #12578.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-013, posted 2020-10-014, 09:50 GMT +2, #12580.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-014, posted 2020-10-015, 11:16 GMT +2, #12583.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-015, posted 2020-10-016, 10:45 GMT +2, #12594.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-016, posted 2020-10-017, 11:22 GMT +2, #12602.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-017, posted 2020-10-018, 08:58 GMT +2, #12614.
    The world goes over 40 million C19 cases, posted 2020-10-018, 11:47 GMT +2, #12615.
    Pre-analysis tables for 2020-10-018, posted 2020-10-019, 13:12 GMT +2, #12618.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2020
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for for for the week of 2020-10-012 through 2020-10-018
    (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ******** 8,387,779 ********
    THE USA WENT OVER 8,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK


    +395,801 new COVID-19 cases over the week before (it was +355,086 the week before that).
    IOWA, OKLAHOMA & WASHINGTON STATE each went over 100,000 total confirmed COVID-19 cases during this week.
    IDAHO went over 50,000 total confirmed COVID-19 cases during this week.
    Both CALIFORNIA and TEXAS are very close to 900,000 total cases.


    The USA has now officially recorded 224,730 total COVID-19, +5,035 of those deaths were recorded during this week.
    The US-Military has now crossed over the 100 total C19 death threshold.

    USA WEEKLY rolling average = 56,543 new infections & 719 deaths per day.
    15,380 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (+909 over the week before).
    TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 125.7 million, 32 states have now performed over 1 million tests apiece.


    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    You can see that the USA is now back up to an average of just a little more than +56,500 new C19 infections per day. The last time the USA was around this average was on 2020-08-006, 2.5 months ago.

    An average of +56,543 new infections per day = 39.3 new infections per MINUTE.

    The infection rate and the rate of ICU bed use is obviously going in the wrong direction.

    Fortunately for the USA....momentarily, the average deaths are staying under +1,000 and also under the +850 from my extrapolation (see: bottom of analysis). However, since deaths are a lagging indicator in the middle of a world-wide pandemic, if the +case numbers continue to rise, then a rise in +daily deaths is sure to follow. It's brutally simple math.

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - rubrik worktable.png

    By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. For the entire week, there were 5 unit / rubrik changes: Iowa, Oklahoma, Idaho, Washington State and US-Military.

    In this week, TEXAS led in +cases every day of the week except for Sunday. Since it led every day the week before, this means that TX lead for 13 days in a row.

    The way the rubrik table is presented, you can easily (and mathematically) see how the week has developed until its end.


    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases.png
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases.png

    Even if cases continue to massively surge nationwide, there's no chance anymore that California, currently at 875,557 cases (it was at 855,389 the Sunday before), could go over the 1,000,000 mark right around election day. An average of +8,297 cases per day would now be necessary get California there. However, both CA and TX are very likely to be well over the 900,000 mark by election day, in 15 days.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - new cases.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - new deaths.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - total deaths.png
    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total tests performed/documented:
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD USA 008 - total tests performed.png
    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD USA 009 - total tests performed.png

    To give this some perspective, California (16,892,000 tests) is only about 1 million behind the entire country of Brazil (17,900,000).
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the 7-day period analysed with 224,730 total US deaths from COVID-19.

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than the population of PARADISE or just slightly than the population of LEXINGTON, never to get the one or the other back again.


    As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

    2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013). 200,000 deaths were reached 5 days before, on 2020-09-015.
    2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
    2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths
    (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
    2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

    At current:

    2020-10-018 COVID-19 EOD USA 006 - extrapolation.png

    This means that we are currently at +833 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently only 1 day ahead of the next milestone-projections. This value is the lowest value in the extrapolation since 2020-08-005. Currently, the average daily death rate in the USA is: +719 per day, 131 under the extrapolated +850 per day. If we stay at this level, then in 5.5 days, the extrapolation would land at 0 and on the day after, we would go into a negative value, which would be a very, very good thing.

    I know it may be tiring to see these statistics all the time, but I do think it's important to follow the data-path every day and to put it in print, for posterity's sake, so that the naysayers cannot say "nay" without looking totally ignorant.

    NEW CONCLUSION: mitigate!

    -Stat

    Appendix - There were some important analyses thoughout the week from 2020-10-012 through 2020-10-018:
    Worldwide EOW analysis for 2020-10-011, posted 2020-10-012, 10:00 GMT +2, #12572.
    USA EOW analysis for 2020-10-011, posted 2020-10-012, 10:26 GMT +2, #12573.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-012, posted 2020-10-013, 09:44 GMT +2, #12578.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-013, posted 2020-10-014, 09:50 GMT +2, #12580.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-014, posted 2020-10-015, 11:16 GMT +2, #12583.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-015, posted 2020-10-016, 10:45 GMT +2, #12594.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-016, posted 2020-10-017, 11:22 GMT +2, #12602.
    EOD general quick analysis for 2020-10-017, posted 2020-10-018, 08:58 GMT +2, #12614.
    The world goes over 40 million C19 cases, posted 2020-10-018, 11:47 GMT +2, #12615.
    Pre-analysis tables for 2020-10-018, posted 2020-10-019, 13:12 GMT +2, #12618.
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-10-018, posted 2020-10-019, 13:47 GMT +2, #12619.
     
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  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    SPAIN GOES OVER ONE-MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES, IS THE 5TH NATION TO DO SO

    In this morning's analysis for 2020-10-018, I mentioned the four nations that I just added to the daily tracking and wrote that most likely, all four will go over the 1-million mark during this week.

    Well, Spain just went over the 1 million mark in the last couple of hours. First, here again the Excel-table from this morning:

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 MOD SPAIN 000 - FLASHBACK to 2020-10-018.png

    And now:

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 MOD SPAIN 000.png

    You will see that I highlighted both today, yesterday (2020-10-018 ) and the day before (2020-10-017), because the numbers for those two days were retroactively changed today. Spain has indicated that it will be doing this alot:

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 MOD SPAIN 000 - WorldOMeter note.png

    So, you can say that technically, Spain went over 1 million on 2020-10-018, but the numbers were just reported today, 2020-10-019.

    Not only that, another nation may indeed also go over 1 million today: Argentina. Currently at 989,680 and averaging more than +13,000 fresh C19 infections per day, it's entirely possible that Argentina will also jump over the 1 million line today.

    Back to Spain: on 2020-09-005, 44 days ago, Spain went over 500,000 C19 cases. So, it took spain more than 8 months to get to one-half million cases and then 1.5 months to double that number.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2020
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  22. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    I will go with a 3 prong approach.
    Already between midnight and 2 am the whole business gets its dose of UV-C. I know it works, because since I installed those lights no crickets, spiders, flies etc.. At night the 5000 sqf get sterilized, which includes the air.
    I found some UV-C lights for Heater and Aircon. Ordered 2 of them, so I know how they look. Forced air heaters, naturally a tad larger than in a house.
    I got two of those momas, ducting is 3x3 feet. They move a lot of air, 5000 sqf and a 10 feet ceiling.
    The problem is, they have only dust and pollen filters, allergy filters. If I install hospital grade germ and virus filters, I would need new heaters, because those filters are so tight you need a hurricane to suck air through them.
    But it would not solve one problem. The heaters suck air at the rear of the room and than discharge the heated air towards the front. Circulate from the rear to the front. At the rear you would accumulate the infected air.
    If the lights are ok with me, I will than have a light in the intake duct and one in the outtake duct, they are mirrored, light intensity should be huge, through out the ducting.
    The problem I see its just thin sheet metal, heaters vibrate, so I have to fabricate a thicker larger plate. I need to have absolute air tidiness, so no light can escape, for safety reasons.
    Now I have the area, were the intakes are and that is were I have the counter and our safety space to do our drop offs.
    There I will install air filters, portable ones, with enough capacity to keep that area clean.
    Crane has some I like with UV-C. With 3 of those I think I can built some thing like a barrier, again, a safety zone.

    The point is, cost. 20,000 for new heaters forget about it. I still would need in our safety zone, air cleaners, because how our heaters circulate the air.
    I can do that with a little work for around 1,500.
     
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  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    ARGENTINA IS THE 6TH NATION TO GO OVER ONE-MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES

    In the analysis for 2020-10-018, I mentioned the four nations that were just added to the daily tracking and wrote that most likely, all four will go over the 1-million mark during this week.

    Spain went over the 1 million mark in the early evening of 2020-10-019.
    And then, at EOD on 2020-10-019, Argentina also went over the 1 million mark.

    This is the first time in COVID-19 history that such a thing has happened: that two nations entered the 1,000,000 club on the same day. Here the excel table for Argentina

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD ARGENTINA 000.png

    Currently at 965,883 and 910,277, both Colombia and France are not far behind and both are also expected to cross over the 1,000,000 mark this week or early next week at the very latest.

    And that's not the end of it: both Peru and Mexico will easily be over 900,000 C19 cases by the end of October, 2020.

    We will have 10 nations above 1 million before Winter sets in.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2020
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  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    COVID-19 stats for Monday, 2020-10-019 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 1:
    Worldwide and USA

    As indicated 2 weeks ago: only releasing barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top 4 nations (all over 1,000,000 cases) throughout the week. I will let the tables and screenshots pretty much speak for themselves and you can interpret them for yourselves as you wish. This will be the new daily format apart from EOW (End of Week) / EOM / EOY analyses and it saves me a LOT of time. Wishing you all a good weekend.

    WORLDWIDE:
    ֍֍֍֍ 40,635,825 ֍֍֍֍
    +371,603, HEAVIEST MONDAY TO-DATE IN COVID-19 HISTORY
    THE WORLD MAY GO OVER 41 MILLION C19 CASES TODAY, 2020-10-020, JUMPING 1 MILLION IN 2 DAYS

    SPAIN & ARGENTINA BOTH GO OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON THE SAME DAY
    PORTUGAL GOES OVER 100,000 C19 CASES, IRELAND GOES OVER 50,000 SUCH CASES

    MY EXCEL TRACKING NOW ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE + 8 NATIONS
    AVERAGE DEATHS ARE STEADY

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - rubrik worktable.png

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 - total cases.png
    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 - total cases.png
    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003 - total cases.png
    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004 - total cases.png

    USA:

    ******** 8,456,653 ********
    +68,854, WELL AHEAD OF INDIA, HEAVIEST C19 MONDAY IN THE USA TO-DATE
    THE US-MILITARY GOES OVER 75,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES
    THE USA IS VERY LIKELY TO REACH 9,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES BY ELECTION DAY



    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - rubrik worktable.png

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases.png
    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases.png


    The other 7 nations over 1,000,000 C19 cases follow in Part 2.

     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2020
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  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    COVID-19 stats for Monday, 2020-10-019 (GMT +0 - Greenwich / 20:00 EDT) / Part 2:
    The 7 other nations currently being tracked

    INDIA:
    ******* 7,594,736 *******
    +46,498
    THE USA ONCE AGAIN REGAINED THE LEAD IN THE DAILY +CASE COUNT OVER INDIA


    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD NDIA 000.png

    BRAZIL:
    ***** 5,251,127 *****
    BRAZIL HAS NOT UPDATED ITS TOTAL ADMINISTERED C19 TEST STATISTIC IN THE LAST 26 DAYS.


    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD BRAZIL 000.png

    RUSSIA:
    * 1,415,316 *

    RUSSIA WENT OVER +10,000 FRESH C19 INFECTIONS FOR THE 15TH DAY IN A ROW
    MOSCOW IS NOW A *WORLDWIDE* MAJOR HOTSPOT, COMPLETE LOCKDOWN IS EXPECTED SOON
    AVERAGE DAILY DEATHS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN IN RUSSIA


    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD RUSSIA 000.png

    SPAIN:
    * 1,015,795 *
    SPAIN WENT OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD SPAIN 000.png


    ARGENTINA:
    * 1,002,662 *
    ARGENTINA WENT OVER 1,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
    ARGENTINA'S POSITIVE to TOTAL TESTS RATIO = 37.19%!!!

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD ARGENTINA 000.png

    COLOMBIA:
    965,883

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD COLOMBIA 000.png

    FRANCE:
    910,277

    2020-10-019 COVID-19 EOD FRANCE 000.png
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2020
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