Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/1-in-500-americans-has-died-of-covid-19_n_6141f6bee4b0dda4cbd6df36

Speaking of predictions I made my own on 5/10/2020 which were more or less in line with the CDC predictions that came out 4 days later.

The range back then was between 200,000 and 2 million and my average placed us in the region of 900,000 when this is all over.

As @Statistikhengst mentioned above we will surpass 700,000 this week and that is probably still an undercount.

From a personal perspective it saddens me that we are so close to that prediction. Losing loved ones and friends takes a heavy toll. For those of you still not vaccinated please do so ASAP.

 

So, some important leapfrogging:

Vietnam, which just officially entered the tracking on 2021-09-004, 16 days ago, at rank 50, is now at rank 47. By the end of the month, it should be pushing rank 40.

Cuba, which entered the tracking last month, is now at rank 42 and should hit rank rank 39 by the end of this week.

Israel, which was the 35th nation to cross over the million mark (2021-08-024), has moved up to rank 30.

Thailand, which was the 34th nation to cross over the million mark (2021-08-020, exactly one month ago), is now at rank 29.

Malaysia, which was the 31st nation to cross over the million mark (2021-07-025), is now at rank 21

The Phillippines, which was the 26th nation to cross over the million mark (2021-04-026) is now at rank 18.

Iran, which was the 14th nation to cross over the million mark (2020-12-003), is now at rank 8 and still rising.

the UK, which was the 9th nation to cross over the million mark (2020-10-031), is now rank 5.

And, today, for the first time since 2021-05-015 (more than 4 months ago), Hungary, which had been showing maybe +300 cases per day on the average, clocked in at over +1,000 cases. Caveat: Hungary reports no data on Saturdays and Sundays, but over four months, the Monday balance from the weekend was up till this point in time still well under +1,000, nomally under +500. Monday one week ago it was +873, the Monday before it was +648, the Monday before it was +521 and one month ago it was +340, so we can quite literally see, in real time, how Hungary is suddenly revving up cases, but not necessarily testing more. With that background, it is still possible that Hungary too will go over the million mark, although one month ago I deemed it to be impossible.

At the end of July 2021, Serbia was rank 37. Today, Serbia was also rank 37. Only, at EOM July 2021, Serbia was 6 ranks away from the lowest country in the million club. Now, Serbia is poised to be the next to enter the million club.

There has been a phenomenal amount of leapfrogging across the top 50 countries that I am officially tracking.

 

Tomorrow, 2021-09-022, Russia will definitely exceed 200,000 total C-19 deaths. It has already reported today's stats and stands at 199,808 deaths and is averaging +794 deaths per day (7-day rolling average).

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Concise COVID-19 WEEKLY analysis: 2021-09-015 (Wednesday) through 2021-09-021 (Tuesday)
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations at 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 50 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide composite figures and 9 of the 50 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a weekly basis.


WORLDWIDE:
ΏΏ֍֍֍ 230,279,844 ֍֍֍ΏΏ
OUR WORLD EXCEEDED 227, 228, 229 & 230 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 CASES DURING THIS TIME
+473,351 daily cases / +8,631 daily deaths
+3,649,785 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 521,398 = 362.1 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+60,006 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,572 = 6 new deaths every minute, tendency: falling
50-NATION TRACKING: USA EXCEEDED THE NEXT MILLION-MARK
FOR THE OTHER MAJOR RUBRIK CHANGE DURING THIS TIME, SEE RUBRIK TABLE BELOW
-----------------------------------------​

It should be noted that most of the top nations saw a reduction in weekly cases, however, Brazil's weekly caseload more than doubled in one week but apparently they had a bookkeeping problem for on 2021-09-021; that nation actually showed a - (negative) value in +cases for that day, a very unusual but not completely unheard of phenomenon.








The first two screenshots of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 50 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the "Reference Link" (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍֍*** 43,242,302 ***֍֍֍֍
THE USA EXCEEDED 43,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 CASES ON 2021-09-020
THE USA CONTINUES TO LEAD ALL NATIONS IN AVERAGE +CASES AND +DEATHS WORLDWIDE
ALASKA IS ON THE CUSP OF 100,000 TOTAL C-19 CASES
+134,674 daily cases / +2,248 daily deaths
+954,097 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 136,300 = 94.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+14,526 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 2,075 = 1.4 death every minute, tendency: rising

​

I am once again publishing the USA WorldOMeter total cases table for all of the USA Units:

INDIA:
֍֍֍*** 33,530,077 ***֍֍֍
+27,333 daily cases / +385 daily deaths
+214,565 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 30,652 = 21.3 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+2,273 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 325 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
​

BRAZIL:
֍֍* 21,247,094 *֍֍
-573 daily cases (this is quite unusual...) / +484 daily deaths
+227,264 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 32,466 = 22.5 new cases every minute, tendency: starkly rising
+3,671 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 524 = 0.4 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

UK:
******* 7,496,543 *******
+31,095 daily cases / +203 daily deaths
+213,733 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 30,533 = 21.2 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,009 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 144 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

RUSSIA:
******* 7,313,851 *******
+19,179 daily cases / +812 daily deaths
+137,766 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 19,681 = 13.7 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+5,559 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 794 = 0.5 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

​

FRANCE:
****** 6,964,699 ******
+7,851 daily cases / +201 daily deaths
+47,239 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 6,748 = 4.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+554 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 79 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

​

TURKEY:
****** 6,904,285 ******
TURKEY WILL OVERTAKE FRANCE IN THE RANKINGS IN THE NEXT DAYS
+29,338 daily cases / +260 daily deaths
+193,619 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 27,660 = 19.2 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+1,672 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 239 = < 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

IRAN:
***** 5,459,796 *****
+17,564 daily cases / +379 daily deaths
+119,140 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 17,020 = 11.8 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+2,738 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 391 = 0.3 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

ARGENTINA:
***** 5,243,231 *****
+1,837 daily cases / +61 daily deaths
+13,383 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 1,912 = 1.3 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+763 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 109 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
​

 

As of the end of today, 2021-09-022, we reach a mathematical milestone in this year, for as of tomorrow, 2021-09-023, including tomorrow, there are exactly 100 days left in this year.

Mathematically, that makes it very easy to estimate how far a nation may come by the end of the year in total cases and also in total deaths by going to the sig file, opening the excel tables and using columns N and O (7-day average) for the values that come in TODAY.

Since Japan is always one of the first nations to report the newest Covid-19 statistics each day, I will use a screenshot from today already from both Japan (well over 1,000,000) and Kazakhstan (approaching 1,000,000) to show you what I mean. This is easy math that you can do in your head or on the back of an envelope, for instance.




You can see that I highlighted columns N and O in this screenshot and as of today, Japan's 7-day rolling average is +4,440 daily cases and +55 daily deaths. Multiply each of those figures by 100 and assuming that those values neither rise nor fall, then by year's end, Japan would accumulate another 444,000 cases and 5,500 deaths. But of course, nothing in life stays absolutely still and we can see from the table that the worst is currently over with in Japan, is it accumulating 5 times LESS +cases per day than it was just circa 3 weeks ago. Nonetheless, it looks pretty obvious that Japan, which just went over the million mark in August, will certainly crack 2,000,000 by year's end.

On to Kazahkstan:



Similar story: Kazakhstan is currently reaping +2,721 cases and 53 deaths per day. Multiply that by 100 and we end up with 272,100 more cases and 5,300 more deaths by year's end in this nation. Kazakhstan is one of 5 nations currently on track to break over the million-mark by end of October, 2021 and although it is reaping less than half of the +cases it was at the end of last month, since it is only currently 132,364 away from the the million barrier, it would currently only need about +1,324 cases per day in order to definitely get over the million hurdle by years end, so I would say it is now a foregone conclusion that Kazakhstan, a nation that almost no one knows even exists, will soon join the million club.

So, during the day today, feel free to click on the sigfile and for any nation that is already recorded for today, you can play this mathematical game for yourself. It trains our eyes to watch the mathematical development of Covid-19 from nation to nation.

-Stat

 

With Georgia now having crossed over 600,000 total Covid-19 cases today, 2021-09-022, I can now report that all 50 of the nations in the official 50-nation tracking are over 600,000 cases and in fact, 47 of them are over 700,000.

By the end of October, 2021, most all of the 50 nations will be over 800,000, with a small number between 750,000 and 800,000. It's a logical development with the passage of time.

-Stat

 

Today, 2021-09-023, the USA will exceed 700,000 total Covid-19 deaths. Currently, this morning my time in Germany, the total stands at: 699,748.

Horrifying, just horrifying.

 

It should be noted that Australia, which up to this point in time had experienced much success in combatting Covid-19, stood at just over 34,000 cases (roughly the equivalent of all the state of Vermont in the USA, for comparison's sake) at EOM July 2021, 7 weeks ago, and is now at 93,942, just shy of 94,000 and just under China in the rankings. By the end of this month, assuming +1,500 cases per day (it was about +200 per day 7 weeks ago), then Australia will have tripled it's total case load within 2 months time and will likely be 109th or 110th nation to break the 100,000 barrier, either ahead of or just behind Rwanda. It is a most depressing statistic to see because for the first 18 months or so of the pandemic, Oceana had very, very few cases. But with the Delta, Delta+ and Mu variants, that is no longer the case.

It is entirely possible that Australia will exceed 1,000,000 total cases at some point in time during 2022.

I had been so hoping to close this thread at the end of this year, but that is looking to be less and less the case.

Also: remember when I started reporting on Vietnam right as it crossed over 100,000 and pointed out that it was on a solid trajectory to 1,000,000 within a short time? Well, Vietnam is now at 725,438 cases and will be well over 800,000 by months's end and over 1,000,000 within the month of October, 2021.

Depressing, truly depressing.

 

My eyes are registering a serious uptick in both +cases and +deaths in the Ukraine, officially a European nation on the SW underbelly of Russia.

At the end of last month, Ukraine's 7 day rolling average was +1,490 cases and +41 deaths per day.

Now, as of today, 2021-09-025 (exactly three months until Christmas Day!!!!), it's +6,193 cases and +104 deaths. That's a 4.1-fold increase in +daily cases and a 2.5-fold increase in +daily deaths within a span of just 25 days.

This is also the first time since 2021-06-006 that Ukraine was registering, on the average, more than +100 daily deaths.

Something has gone seriously wrong in the Ukraine. Both Ukraine and Serbia use the same two vaccines (Sputnik and the Sinovac aus China), apparently, they are not helping much against the newest variants. Serbia has seen an even more extreme rise in both +cases and +deaths.

 

Yesterday, 2021-09-025 (3 months until Christmas Day!!!), Serbia crossed over the 900,000 Covid-19 case mark, joining Morocco in that category.

We now have:
-35 nations over 1,000,000 cases
-2 nations between 900,000 and 1,000,000
-5 nations between 800,000 and 900,000 (Kazakhstan, Cuba, Switzerland, Hungary and Jordan)
-5 nations between 700,000 and 800,000 (Nepal, Vietnam, UAE, Austria and Tunisia) -and-
-3 nations between 600,000 and 700,000 (Greece, Lebanon and Georgia) in my 50-nation daily tracking per excel table (see: sig-file).

Additionally, I am currently pretracking 3 nations under 600,000 that have shown major case growth until recently: Guatemala, Sri Lanka and Azerbaijan.

By the end of next month, 4 to 5 of the nations under 1,000,000 are very likely to cross over the million line and likely in this order: Serbia, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Morocco and perhaps, just perhaps, Switzerland).

-Stat

 

It’s inexorable. Our efforts at managing it seem puny.

 

Today, Monday, 2021-09-027, the UK broke over 300,000,000 (300,199,126, to be exact) Covid-19 tests performed in that country.

Though less than 1/2 of the tests performed in the USA, it represents 4.3 times the total population of the UK, which is rank 3 among all nations in the world in terms of C-19 tests performed, after the USA and India.

 

Today, Tuesday, 2021-09-028, Australia, just went over 100,000 total Covid-19 cases (100,919, to be exact), making it the 109th nation to cross over 100,000 cases.

A major problem that started popping up at the end of August was the sudden start of infections among the indigenous peoples who live in the Outback.

At least three aboriginie villages (they are not as small as you may think) have reported that 10% of their populations were infected in the last 7 days, so Covid-19 is sweeping the outback like a wildfire.

Overall, Australians are getting vaccinated at a good rate and as soon as the 2-dose vaccinations hit 80% of the adult population, then Australia was planning to lift restrictions.

I am writing this because the Outback is really hard to reach - often there are no road, people generally fly in in helicopters. And this area of the world was pretty much untouched by Covid-19 - until now. If Covid-19 can be here, it can be anywere. And it is. It is everywhere.

 

Damnit and we were going so well!

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Concise COVID-19 WEEKLY analysis: 2021-09-022 (Wednesday) through 2021-09-028 (Tuesday)
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations at 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 50 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide composite figures and 9 of the 50 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a weekly basis.
That number is likely to jump to 11 of the 50 tracked nations by the first weekly concise analysis in October, 2021.


WORLDWIDE:
ΏΏ֍֍֍**** 233,523,329 ****֍֍֍ΏΏ
OUR WORLD EXCEEDED 231, 232 & 233 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 CASES DURING THIS TIME
+437,475 daily cases / +8,379 daily deaths
+3,243,485 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 463,355 = 321.8 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+56,144 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,021 = 5.6 new deaths every minute, tendency: falling
50-NATION TRACKING: USA, TURKEY & FRANCE EXCEEDED THE NEXT MILLION-MARK
NETHERLANDS & IRAQ WILL BOTH EXCEED 2,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES TODAY, 2021-09-029
SPAIN & COLUMBIA WILL BOTH EXCEED 5,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES IN THE NEXT WEEK
RUSSIA EXCEEDED 200,000 TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS ON 2021-09-022
FOR THE OTHER MAJOR RUBRIK CHANGES DURING THIS TIME, SEE RUBRIK TABLE BELOW
-----------------------------------------​

It should be noted that 6 of the top 9 nations saw a reduction in weekly cases, however, Brazil's stats are moving like a yo-yo: the week before, it's weekly caseload more than doubled in one week but this last week, it was halved; that being said, on the whole, we are seeing a slowdown in +cases across most of the world.







The first two screenshots of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 50 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the "Reference Link" (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍֍**** 44,054,825 ****֍֍֍֍
THE USA EXCEEDED 44,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 CASES ON 2021-09-028
THE USA CONTINUES TO LEAD ALL NATIONS IN AVERAGE +CASES AND +DEATHS WORLDWIDE
ALASKA EXCEEDED 100,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 CASES IN THESE LAST 7 DAYS
+112,490 daily cases / +2,103 daily deaths
+812,523 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 116,075 = 80.6 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+14,355 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 2,051 = 1.4 death every minute, tendency: steady

​

I am once again publishing the USA WorldOMeter total cases table for all of the USA Units:

INDIA:
֍֍֍*** 33,715,049 ***֍֍֍
+21,901 daily cases / +375 daily deaths
+184,972 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 26,425 = 18.4 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,980 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 283 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
​

BRAZIL:
֍֍* 21,381,790 *֍֍
+15,395 daily cases / +818 daily deaths
+134,696 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 19,242 = 13.4 new cases every minute, tendency: starkly falling
+4,002 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 572 = 0.4 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
​

UK:
******* 7,736,235 *******
+34,520 daily cases / +167 daily deaths
+239,692 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 34,242 = 23.8 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+920 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 131 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

RUSSIA:
******* 7,464,708 *******
+21,559 daily cases / +852 daily deaths
+150,857 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 21,551 = 15.0 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+5,723 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 818 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
​

​

TURKEY:
******* 7,095,580 *******
TURKEY EXCEEDED 7,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2021-09-025
TURKEY SURPASSED FRANCE IN THE RANKINGS IN THE LAST 7 DAYS
+28,892 daily cases / +239 daily deaths
+191,295 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 27,328 = 19.0 new cases every minute, tendency: steady
+1,546 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 221 = < 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

​

FRANCE:
******* 7,002,393 *******
FRANCE EXCEEDED 7,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON 2021-09-028
FRANCE FELL BEHIND TURKEY IN THE RANKINGS IN THE LAST 7 DAYS
+6,765 daily cases / +78 daily deaths
+37,694 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 5,385 = 3.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+364 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 52 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
​

IRAN:
***** 5,559,691 *****
+11,701 daily cases / +239 daily deaths
+99,895 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 14,271 = 9.9 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,983 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 283 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
​

ARGENTINA:
***** 5,253,756 *****
+1,825 daily cases / +84 daily deaths
+10,534 weekly cases // rolling 7-day avg = 1,505 = 1.0 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+459 weekly deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 66 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
​

It is very likely that Spain and Columbia will be joining the weekly concise analyses in the early part of October, 2021 as both are very close to 5,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases right now and will very likely exceed that marker in the next days.

 

So, believe it or not, with the end of September happening today, we close out the 3rd quarter of this year, with only 92 days to go until the end of the year.

Until the end of 2021 I will continue the daily trackings, but I had really been hoping to wrap this thing up by the end of the year. Unfortunately, that is not going to happen. Sigh.

Tracking the Worldwide figures +50 nations + 3 pretracked nations = 54 * 8 data points per day * 30.5 days a month (average) = 13,176 data-points that I track, log and publish per month, or 158,112 data-points for the entire year of 2021. I just cannot keep up this pace.

So, at the beginning of 2022, in three months, I am moving from daily tracking to calendar week tracking plus EOM tracking, assuming the start of each week being a Monday, ending on a Sunday. Since the New Year 2022 starts on a Saturday, the first full week will begin on Monday January 3rd and end on January 9th, which means that every Monday, I will be providing a weekly concise analysis for the week before (from Monday to Sunday). In order to start the baseline correctly, I will still input for 2022-01-001 and 002 because 002 will be needed to calculate the weekly value for 2022-01-009. So, that's 52 weeks and 12 months, for a maximum of 64 inputs instead of 377. And I suspect there will be a month or two where the month also ends on a Sunday, so that end of week and end of month will be concurrent.

Also, for the weekly concise analyses, the bar will be moved up to all nations with over 10,000,000 cases instead of 5,000,000, so a number of nations will fall out of the concise analyses and if we get lucky, never re-enter them.

But there is one additional thing I am going to do: I am going to add 6 excel tables for the continents and start tracking continental stats the same way.

This will mean: Worldwide +6 continents +50 top nations but no more pre-tracked nations. And should more than 50 nations end up over 1,000,000 cases, well then, I will have to increase the tracking, of course.

Also, instead of 12 large monthly analyses there will be 4 large quarterly analyses (end of March, June, September and December)

So, at the beginning of 2022, expect to see a new format, but no more daily tracking from me. And I will be working on this stuff by about 1/7th of what I had been doing since around May, 2020.This will cut down my workload immensely.

Just a head's up for the future.

-Stat

 

Continental analyses will be interesting.

 

THE TRACKING TREE​

The day is not yet over, but enough nations have now reported in so that I can already publish the Tracking Tree for EOM September, 2021:



This is essential the "Cliff-notes" version of the worldwide analysis for EOM September 2021 when it comes out on October 2nd, 2021.

Red indicates all nations over 1,000,000 total Covid-19 cases that have jumped into the next category within this month.

-Stat

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Analysis tables for EOM (End of Month) September 2021, 2021-09-030
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 1 of 5:
Worldwide and and top 50 nations (split into five postings)

READ!​

The end-of-month analyses are pretty intensive and take time to do well. Here the schedule:

-the following five postings are the screenshots of the Worldwide figures and the top 50 nations. Additionally, 3 nations are still in pre-tracking: Guatemala, Sri Lanka and Azerbaijan. Vietnam, which was in the pre-tracking just one month ago, is now pushing toward 800,000 cases and will top the million-mark in the month of October. This is exactly why I felt to need to start some pre-tracking as well.

The Worldwide excel table figures will not be posted here as they will receive an individual analysis. Instead, a screenshot (2 pages) of the preliminary Worldwide figures from WorldOMeter plus the 50 nations currently being tracked will be posted as proof of the veracity of the data.

-later on in this day or on October 2nd, depending on how much time I have, I will publish the final USA figures in the form of a slim, unplanned analysis, covering EOM September 2021. It was not planned that I would continue the USA monthly analyses but then came the Delta Surge in my homeland, so I think that a special analysis is indeed in order, here, once again as was the case at EOM July 2021. But I am very pressed for time, it will be a really slim report.

-Tomorrow, on 2021-10-002, I will then publish the end-analysis for the Worldwide figures for 2020-09-030. WorldOMeter has a "2 days ago" function at its main table, which allows us to wait one more day to see the final numbers. The advantage to this is that nations that may be adjusting their total figures will have one more day to do so. The worldwide analysis will be quite extensive, with the new luxury table I have been using having been expanded not only to include the 7-day rolling averages in +cases and +deaths but also the monthly +case and +death averages, for better context. The new probability table for the tracked nations currently under 1,000,000 cases, which I added last month, will be continued.

I've eliminated a lot of extra text in these five postings. If you want to see where the virus has grown or receded, then take a good look at the monthly + numbers (+cases and +deaths over EOM May 2021), at columns P and Q in row three for EOM this month and in row 34 for EOM of the month before. The exact growth rates will be calculated on a separate table, as always.

So, let's get started.

WORLDWIDE:
The Worldwide EOM analysis for will be published on 2021-10-002

​

For in the meantime:

USA (preliminary):
​

A USA EOM special *slim* analysis will be published later.
​

INDIA:
​

BRAZIL:
​

UK:
​

RUSSIA:
​

TURKEY:
​

​

FRANCE:
​

IRAN:
​

ARGENTINA:

​

SPAIN:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Analysis tables for EOM (End of Month) September 2021, 2021-09-030
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 2 of 5:
Worldwide and and top 50 nations (split into five postings)
​

COLOMBIA:
​

ITALY:
​

GERMANY:
​

INDONESIA:
​

MEXICO:
​

POLAND:
​

SOUTH AFRICA:
​

PHILLIPPINES:
​

UKRAINE:
​

MALAYSIA:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Analysis tables for EOM (End of Month) September 2021, 2021-09-030
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 3 of 5:
Worldwide and and top 50 nations (split into five postings)
​

PERU:
​

IRAQ:
​

NETHERLANDS:
​

JAPAN:
​

CZECHIA:
​

CHILE:
​

CANADA:
​

THAILAND:

​

BANGLADESH:

​

ISRAEL:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Analysis tables for EOM (End of Month) September 2021, 2021-09-030
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 4 of 5:
Worldwide and and top 50 nations (split into five postings)
​

PAKISTAN:
​

BELGIUM:
​

ROMANIA:
​

SWEDEN:
​

PORTUGAL:
​

SERBIA:
​

MOROCCO:
​

KAZAKHSTAN:
​

CUBA:
​

SWITZERLAND:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Analysis tables for EOM (End of Month) September 2021, 2021-09-030
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 5 of 5:
Worldwide and and top 50 nations (split into five postings)​

JORDAN:
​

HUNGARY:
​

NEPAL:
​

VIETNAM:
VIETNAM ENTERED THE TRACKING IN MID-SEPTEMBER 2021
​

AUSTRIA:
​

UAE:
​

TUNISIA:
​

GREECE:
​

LEBANON:​

GEORGIA:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

Analysis tables for EOM (End of Month) September 2021, 2021-09-030
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 5 of 5:
Worldwide and and top 50 nations (split into five postings)​

JORDAN:
​

View attachment 156053

HUNGARY:
​

View attachment 156052

NEPAL:
​

View attachment 156055

VIETNAM:
VIETNAM ENTERED THE TRACKING IN MID-SEPTEMBER 2021
​

View attachment 156058

AUSTRIA:
​

View attachment 156049

UAE:
​

View attachment 156057

TUNISIA:
​

View attachment 156056

GREECE:
​

View attachment 156051

LEBANON:​

View attachment 156054

GEORGIA:
​

View attachment 156050

 

REFERENCE LINK, FINAL EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of July, 2021, written June 30, 2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed

USA COVID-19 statistical "slim" analysis for EOM September (2021-09-030)
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)

֍֍֍֍ 44,316,971 ֍֍֍֍
THE USA DATA FOR SEPTEMBER 2021 IS FINAL
THIS IS AN EXTRA, UNPLANNED ANALYSIS, MADE NECESSARY BY THE DELTA-VARIANT WAVE

+117,475 daily cases / +3,168 daily deaths
+4,183,841 cases over the month before / +58,786 deaths over the month before
That is a decrease in +cases but a massive increase in +deaths over August 2021

USA 7-day rolling averages:
+112,095 new C19 cases per day (one month ago: +166,315) / +2,020 deaths per day (one month ago: +1,453)
---------------------------------------------------------
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases in the USA: 20,399 (one month ago: 25,686)
Total USA C19 tests: at month's end, the USA was just under 642,000,000 total C19 tests administered
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

I was planning to not report on the USA any more on a monthly basis, but then the Delta-Variant struck the USA, most notably in states where not enough people have been vaccinated. This will be a more concise analysis. There is no rubrik table for the USA anymore, it has served its purpose. If you don't ready anything else here, read the postitivity rates and see where the high rates are coming from.

The +case wave in the USA is receding, the +deaths wave in the USA is increasing, a standard indication of the end of a wave. The question is now as to whether a fall wave independent of Delta is in the offing in the USA, as happened last year starting in late October, 2020.

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, Total cases, daily values:
​

First, the WorldOMeter values:




And here is the look with my monthly compare excel table:

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, Total cases ​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, + monthly cases and +daily case averages​

Here the monthly +cases, something you cannot see at WorldOMeter:




Both Texas and Florida averaged over +10,000 fresh infections per day.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total performed tests​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, + monthly tests:​

Califorinia performed more than 10 million Covid-19 tests in the month of September, 2021 alone.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, POSITIVITY RATE:
​

The positivity rate is something that WorldOMeter does not show, but it is very easy to calculate. Furthermore, Thi iss the rubrik that tells us which states are getting hit the hardest and is most informative about the progression of the Delta Variant wave in the USA




Indiana and the Unit of Veterans Affairs come closest to the national positivity rate. This means that 37 other units, most of them states, have a HIGHER positivity rate than Indiana, which is proof positive that the positivity is not uniform throughout the USA. 13 states (well, at 9.99% positivity, let's say 14 states) have a positivity of 10% or far higher, most notably, North Dakota's 46.04% positivity rate.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

To put the total deaths of California, Texas, New York and Florida (all with over 50,000) into perspective, only 19 nations in the entire world (over 210 nations) have recorded over 50,000 total C19 deaths.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, + monthly deaths and +daily death averages:​

In conclusion: I'll keep it short. What is happening in the USA is a self-inflicted wound, because a swath of the population has been constantly lied to about vaccinations and will not get vaccinated. However, since EOM August 2021, the pace of vaccinations has picked up in the USA but there are some real hotspots going on, of course in both Texas and Florida, but also in Idaho, North Dakota, Kansas and Oklahoma.

-Stat