Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Screenshot preface to the 2021 EOY Worldwide analysis.​

First, a tradition since February, 2021, here the TRACKING TREE for EOY 2021, something that did not exist one year ago:



The tracking tree is in the form of, well, a tree.... without the specific numbers. Countries listed in red have either joined the tracking tree at the bottom or moved up a category as of the 1,000,000-mark.

Also, I thought it would be helpful to see all of the worldwide data that Worldometer provided for the last day of this year, at least in terms of total cases, in one fell-swoop. This is data that I then input into my own excel worktables to crunch specific statistics, of course:



The full analysis will be out in the next hour or two.

-Stat

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed - there is new info to be gleaned.

WORLDWIDE COVID-19 statistical analysis for EOY (End of Year), Friday, 2021-12-031
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 ET)

WORLDWIDE:
ΏΏ֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍******** 288,477,115 ********֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍ΏΏ
THE WORLDWIDE DATA IS FINAL
+25,420,397 monthly cases (heaviest month to-date), / +219,628 monthly deaths
+204,676,874 cases over the year 2020 (➚) / +3,627,986 deaths over the year 2020 (➚)

Fixed-statistics at EOY 2021:
TOTAL C19 cases: 114 with 100,000+ (+38 over 2020), 42 with 1,000,000+ (+24 over 2020), 6 with 10,000,000+ (+4 over 2020).

There have now been 5,453,004 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +219,628 of them since EOM November 2021.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +1,306,796 new C19 cases per day (was: +582,550 EOY 2020) /
+6,270 deaths per day (was: +10,934 at EOY 2020)
---------------------------------------------------------
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 89,834 (EOY 2020: 106,365)
Combined, the top 65 nations have performed a total of 4,232,043,880 (4.2 BILLION) Covid-19 tests.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

You will notice two entries for 2021-12-031. The top one, highlighted in aqua, is for the yearly +values and such.

In one year's time, our big, beautiful world went from almost 83.8 to 288.5 million COVID-19 cases and from almost 1.83 to 5.45 million COVID-19 deaths. Before you read farther, please re-read that last sentence and reflect for a moment. We added close to 206.5 MILLION cases in this last year.

What the 7-day-averages mean: +1,306,796, +6,270 = 907.5 fresh C19 cases and 4.4 C19 deaths per minute. EVERY MINUTE OF EVERY DAY. For the sake of context, that's considerably more cases per whatever unit of time you wish to use to measure, but definitely less deaths vis-a-vis EOY 2020.​

I would like to reflect just a bit on what happened in 2021. We came out of a terrible winter wave in Europe, the USA and Brasil only to find India under attack by a new variant: Delta. The months of April, May and part of June 2021 should truly be called the "India months" in our World's Covid-19 history. Of course, Delta (and Delta+) spread most everywhere and we then went though a period starting in September where I said that the "baltics all the way to the Caucusus were on fire". Unfortunately, just as soon as the fire started to go out in eastern Europe, it exploded in central Europe and at the same time, the Omikron variant popped up in South Africa, causing a worldwide surge in the last 10 days of the year 2021 the likes of which we have never seen before. It's been one helluva ride.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
First, here the rubrik table for the last days of 2021:
​

The top 65 tracked nations within the worldwide figures:​

Here the screenshots of the excel tables for those nations nations alongside the worldwide figures today can be found in the pre-analysis reports:
EOY Pre-analysis tables, Part 1 for 2021-12-031, posted 2022-01-001, 17:58 UTC +1, #13939.
EOY Pre-analysis tables, Part 2 for 2021-12-031, posted 2022-01-001,17:59 UTC +1, #13940.
EOY Pre-analysis tables, Part 3 for 2021-12-031, posted 2022-01-001, 18:00 UTC +1, #13941.
EOY Pre-analysis tables, Part 4 for 2021-12-031, posted 2022-01-001,18:01 UTC +1, #13942.
EOY Pre-analysis tables, Part 5 for 2021-12-031, posted 2022-01-001, 18:02 UTC +1, #13943.
EOY Pre-analysis tables, Part 6 for 2021-12-031, posted 2022-01-001, 18:02 UTC +1, #13944.
EOY Pre-analysis tables, Part 7 for 2021-12-031, posted 2022-01-001, 18:03 UTC +1, #13945.

And:
USA EOY 2021 analysis or 2021-12-031, posted 2022-01-001, 20:06 UTC +1, #13947.
Screenshot preface to Worldwide EOY analysis, posted 2022-01-002,18:18 UTC +1, #13951.

I ended the year 2020 by tracking 18 nations and throughout the year 2021, continually added nations as more and more were closing in on the 1,000,000-mark. We ended 2021 with 42 nations over the million mark, but I had been tracking 50 for a number of months. Shortly before the end of 2021, I upped that number to 65. You will see why later.

As time progressed, I decided that it was time to built a better excel table than that what worldometer provides. Earlier today, I provided all 7 screenshots covering the entire world, every nation. Using that data, I have more specific calculations for total cases, deaths and tests and then again for +cases, +deaths and +tests.

So, here we go:

Top 65 nations, yearly total cases and total deaths / yearly +cases and +deaths (2021 over 2020):​

The two screenshots above are for total cases. Column E and N calculate the +cases and +deaths respectively, while columns F and O take those numbers and divide them by 365 to calculate the daily average over a year's time:



Columns G and P are independent of those calculations. Those columns represent the 7-day rolling average for the last 7 days in 2021. So, if the numbers in G or P are considerably higher than the respective column to the left (F and O), then that means that the last week was definitely part of the Omikron surge in those lands. If however the situation is reversed, then those lands are not part of the Omikron wave yet.

Check out the country you live in. The figures for EOY 2021 are eye-popping figures, to say the least.

Top 65 nations, yearly total tests / yearly +tests (2021 over 2020):​

And here the +tests:




We ended the year 2021 with 7 nations having performed over 100 million tests a piece. And the USA is well on it's way to reach 1 BILLION tests performed in the year 2022. Sadly, the USA is also well on its way to 1 MILLION deaths as well.

One can also get a good overview with the continental numbers:

WORLDWIDE CONTINENTAL STATISTICS: TOTALS, +VALUES, GROWTH RATES​

I suspect that these tables are pretty self-explanatory.

THE TRACKED NATIONS UNDER THE 1,000,000-MARK, HOW CLOSE TO 1,000,000?​

Looking toward the other 23 nations in the tracking that have not yet reached the million-mark and since I am moving to a quarterly system of analyses in 2022, here is a table that projects, based on the current 7-day average, how many days those nations would need to reach 1,000,000 by the end of Q1, 2022.

First in descending order of total cases:



And now in ascending order of days needed at the current (respective) paces of those lands in order to break the 1,000,000-barrier:



At this pace, by the end of Q1 2022, 9 more nations are likely to spring over the 1,000,000-fence and 6 of those nine are all but guaranteed to do so. Not only that, 2 of those 6 were just added to my tracking: both Denmark and Ireland came literally out of nowhere and are now getting hammered by C-19.

If you want to take the longer view and of course assuming that these lands keep this pace, then any "days" number under 365 means that right now, 19 countries are set to exceed 1,000,000 cases in 2022. Of course, this is going to change. I am suspecting that upwards of 30 nations will go over 1,000,000 cases in the course of 2022.

In order to protocol this stuff better, I have created a tracking table (ranked) of when each nations has passed an important type of million marker:



In retrospect, I am glad to have followed the numbers every day for so long, but as of 2022, I will only be tracking on a weekly basis.

Thanks for staying faithful to this dreadnaught thread.

-Stat

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read atleast once and use as needed - there is new info to be gleaned.

Concise COVID-19 WEEKLY analysis: 2021-12-027 (Monday) through 2022-01-002 (Sunday)
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
CALENDAR WEEK 52 - "STRADDLE-WEEK" BETWEEN 2021-2022
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations from 10,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 65 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide composite figures and 6 of the 65 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a weekly basis.

WORLDWIDE:
ΏΏ֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍* 291,569,220 *֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍ΏΏ
Our world added +10 MILLION total Covid-19 cases in just one week!
+10,995,141 weekly cases // daily avg = 1,570,734 = 1090.8 new cases every minute, tendency: sharply rising
+44,640 weekly deaths // daily avg = 6,377 = 4.4 new deaths every minute, tendency: slightly falling
UK, FRANCE AND SPAIN EXCEEDED THE NEXT MILLION MARK
FOR THE OTHER MAJOR RUBRIK CHANGES DURING THIS TIME, SEE RUBRIK TABLE BELOW
-----------------------------------------​

This last week, which straddles two years, was without a doubt and by far the heaviest week in terms of +cases in the Covid-19 history of our world to-date and when you consider that these numbers came in from directly after Christmas and go through just past the New Year, we can assume a paperwork backlog in a large number of nations plus the fact that a lot of people gathered with others over the holidays but overall, less people went to get tested but will soon get tested can only mean that worldwide, we still missed oodles and oodles of infections. However, in spite of this qualifier, our world still averaged +1.6 MILLION cases per day and 4 nations (USA, UK, France and Spain) are now averaging over +100,000 cases per day, with a 5th (Italy) sure to jump onto that bandwagon this week and a 6th (Germany) not far away. This is surely all due to the extreme R-factor found in Omikron, which is now quite obviously on the march on all 7 continents. I strongly suspect that within 2 weeks, our world will be averaging +2.5 MILLION cases per day, if not considerably more. What we are not yet seeing, thankfully, is a rise in associated deaths.

You will notice that the bar for "dreadnaught" nations has been raised from 5,000,000 total cases to 10,000,000 total cases, causing 7 nations that were in the last analysis (Turkey, Germany, Spain, Italy, Iran, Argentina and Colombia) to fall out of this analysis, at least for the time being. I supect that 4 of those will rejoin these analyses in the next months.

You will also notice that the excel table now calculates weekly cases, deaths and tests (instead of daily) and that the averages are daily averages as they were before, but are no longer rolling averages. That's a difference with an important distinction; I will write about this later in the week. Should you have any questions about the new format of the excel tables, feel free to ask here on this thead.

And finally, this is the last rubrik worksheet screenshot that shows daily calculations which means that although 2021-01-001 was no longer tracked in the individual excel tables, it was indeed tracked (barebone) on the rubrik worksheet. For 2021-01-002, you will see an enormous +case disparity between the WorldOMeter daily +case total (+1,184,735) and the rubrik worksheet (+1,907,507), which means that number of nations shunted 722,772 cases from the daily overall total to dates before 2022-01-002.





The first two screenshots of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 50 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
These WorldOMeter screenshots are from the website update from 2022-01-004, 09:20 UTC +0 (03:20 ET), using the "2 days ago" function
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the "Reference Link" (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍֍****** 56,705,136 ******֍֍֍֍֍
THE USA EXCEEDED 54, 55 & 56 MILLION TOTAL COVID-19 CASES IN THE SAME WEEK
THE USA LEADS WORLDWIDE IN BOTH AVERAGE +CASES & +DEATHS
+3,482,712 weekly cases // daily avg = 497,530 = 345.5 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+10,264 weekly deaths // daily avg = 1,466 = 1.0 death every minute, tendency: slightly falling
​

INDIA:
֍֍֍**** 34,922,882 ****֍֍֍
+129,549 weekly cases // daily avg = 18,507 = 12.6 new cases every minute, tendency: sharply rising
+1,896 weekly deaths // daily avg = 271 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: falling​

BRAZIL:
֍֍** 22,293,228 **֍֍
IS BRAZIL TESTING FOR COVID-19 ANYMORE AT ALL?
+53,792 weekly cases // daily avg = 7,685 = 5.3 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+687 weekly deaths // rolling daily avg = 98 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly rising

​

UK:
֍*** 13,625,057 ***֍
THE UK EXCEEDED 13,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES ON 2022-01-001
+1,153,581 weekly cases // daily avg = 164,797 = 114.4 new cases every minute, tendency: sharply rising
+991 weekly deaths // daily avg = 142 = 1.0 death every minute, tendency: rising
​

RUSSIA:
֍ 10,537,966 ֍
+145,946 weekly cases // daily avg = 20,849 = 14.5 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+6,300 weekly deaths // daily avg = 900 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
1st TIME SINCE 2021-10-014 WEEKLY ANALYSIS WHERE THE RUSSIAN DEATH AVG WAS UNDER +1,000
​

FRANCE:
֍ 10,250,358 ֍
FRANCE EXCEEDED 10,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-01-01
+1,134,290 weekly cases // daily avg = 162,041 = 112.5 new cases every minute, tendency: sharply rising
+1,300 weekly deaths // daily avg = 186 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly rising
​

 

Sooooooooooooooo.....

after almost 22 months of endless daily data-checking and inputting numbers, I feel like a very free man!

With the numbers of 2022-01-002 now "ad acta", I will be recording the Covid-19 numbers only once per week, which gives me 6 days in between to peruse the stats if I wish, or not. This will give me more time to post thoughts and respond to people. If course, when major events happen, I will be reporting them.

I hope you all like the new color coding at the excel tables (go check them out), also the new color format and text format for the screenshots as well.

I needed to show a clean break from the methodology in 2020-2021 (recording and noting daily minutae) to what I will now use in 2022-2024 (recording and noting weekly data and sometimes, important minutae), because I assume that by 2024, we may be seeing the tail end of the pandemic as it becomes a non-dangerous endemic.

Here's hoping that that will happen.

And now, to my three favorite post-analysis words:

GIN

AND

TONIC

-Stat

 

Tomorrow I will post some followup material from the EOY 2021 analysis.

You may find it interesting.

 

Sooooo....


looking at the numbers for today, Tuesday 2022-01-004, as they roll in:

Australia pulled in +80,000 new cases between yesterday and today. Australia's weekly average for CW 51, which ended on 2022-01-002, was +22,995 per day, so their figures from Monday and today show a verifiable acceleration down under in Digiridoo-Land.

Ireland and Denmark have been tracking close to each other ever since I brought both of them into my tracking. At EOM November, 2021, Denmark was at 487,401 cases, while Ireland was at 570,115, about 83,000 cases apart from each other. Ireland's daily average at end of CW51 was +16,169 while Denmark's was +16,450, so as of the New Year they are still running parallel to each other, only now with Denmark at 846,398 and Ireland at 867,199, with the two nations now slightly less than 21,000 cases apart from each other.

The one table in the Worldwide EOY 2021 analysis projected that these two nations would spring over the 1,000,000 barrier in 13-15 days, which would be 9-11 days from now:



At this current rate, both will do just that. And Australia will get their earlier than first. So will Morocco.

Meanwhile, for the first time ever, the UK went over +200,000 new cases in one day today, Italy has surged ahead of Spain with +170,000, Spain clocked in today with +118,000 and the USA is already well over the +100,000 mark, on it's way to +350,000-+400,000, I assume (it could be more).

But the real news for today is France, which just clocked in with +272,000 fresh C19 cases.

This means that we are already guaranteed 5 nations over the +100,000 mark, 2 of them definitely over the +200,000 mark and as soon as Germany ramps up it's testing, I am pretty sure that that nation will become the 6th to join the dreadnaught club.

And then there is India, which is suddenly showing a precipitous rise in cases. India reached a peak of about +400,000 daily cases for a short while during the Delta wave in April-May of 2021; just imagine what kind of case numbers will be coming out of India if Omikron runs wild there. And when fire breaks out in India, then it's only a matter of time before that fire jumps over to Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Among the smaller nations, I am seeing a distinctively marked rise in +case in Bolivia (I dropped Bolivia from my tracking in August when the average fell under +700 per day and picked it back up again at end of December, 2021), which just posted an average for CW51 of +4,918 and clocked in today with +7,371 fresh cases.

Portugal clocked-in today at +26,000 new cases, its CW51 daily average was: +20,604.

I am seeing major motion among smaller nations that were not even close to my radar screen, most notably: Norway and Finnland, but also proportionally, big numbers out of Cyprus (+5,500 cases in a nation of only 1,000,000 people). These three nations may join my tracking earlier than I though would happen. And in Southeast Asia, Laos is showing a marked increase in cases and a mild increase in deaths as well.

With four hours left in the day for WorldOMeter, the cumulative value for our world is already at +1.5 million cases and of my 65 tracked nations, 11 have not reported in yet, with Argentina and Colombia among them. That's already more than last Tuesday, 2021-12-028, where our World accumulated +1.3 million cases. I suspect we will end today with at least +1.6 million new cases, possibly +1.7 million, which points to Thursday likely going over the +2 million mark. Wait and see.

-Stat

 

It ends up that my estimate for 2022-01-004 was too conservative:




Our world ended up pushing +2.2 MILLION new cases in one day.

A small surprise on the table when sorted by +cases is rank 23 (Reunion), where 1% of the population of that very small nation tested positive in just one day.

 

Yesterday, 2022-01-005, our world sprang +2.6 MILLION C-19 cases over the day before. More info after the screenshot (please read):



Although I have officially disontinued the daily tracking and have moved to weekly tracking, since this wave is just so enormous, for the worldwide composite values and for the USA, I have decided to inofficially reintroduce the daily tracking until the end of January. In this way, I can see how many +cases each day are being shunted into the past and of them, how many are in the USA.

So, for the worldwide figures, Worldometer says, +2,560,856 and my excel table (inofficial) says +2,669,005, a difference of 108,149 cases that have been shunted to previous dates.

Of those, in the USA, Worldometer says, +704,661 (27.52% of the worldwide haul for this day) and my excel table (inofficial) says +764,466 (28.64% of the worldwide haul), a difference of 58,805 US +cases that were shunted to previous dates. That's 54.37% of the worldwide +cases that are the discrepancy between WorldOMeter and my excel table. As I have written many times, I have no problem with the discrepancy, there is nothing nefarious about it, but I simply don't go hunting ghosts into the past.

Here proof of this simple math:





Back to the worldometer screenshot from above:



You will notice that under the 5 nations over +100,000 daily cases, I highlighted the next 5 (Argentina, India, Turkey, Australia and Germany) in red as all five are seeing a massive rise in +cases literally from day to day.

So, let's go through the list:

Argentina 2022-01-005, +95,159 / Argentina EOY 2021, +47,663, rolling average was +29,882. You can see the doubling in just 5 days time.

India 2022-01-005, +90,928 / India EOY 2021, +22,775, rolling average was +11,681. You can see the more than quadrupling in just 5 days time. The weekly average for India for CW 51 was 18,507.

Both of those nations are well on their way to achieving +100,000 daily status within this very week, either today or tomorrow.

Turkey 2022-01-005, +66,468 / Turkey EOY 2021, +40,786, rolling average was +30,862. You can see the doubling between the 7-day average from five days ago and the raw total from now. Turkey is moving more slowly than either Argentina or India.

Australia 2022-01-005, +64,453 / Argentina EOY 2021, +32,827, rolling average was +16,130. You can see the doubling in raw +cases in just 5 days time.

Germany 2022-01-005, +63,191 / Germany EOY 2021, +33,466, rolling average was +27,746. You can see the doubling in just 5 days time.

The one thing that separates Australia from the other for is that the other four already have between 5,000,000-10,000,0000 C19 cases and are in the top 12 nations by total case rankings, while Australia is currently rank 61 and well under 1,000,000 total cases. However, at this rate, Australia is on target to shoot over the million-mark within this month.

The more important info to glean here, imo, is that we are likely to go from 5 nations regularly over +100,000 daily cases on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursday and perhaps even on Fridays, to 10 such nations.

We are talking abou a massive piling on of fresh C19 cases, but we are not talking about the severity of the illness, which appears to be mild in most cases.

We have not yet seen a wave of this proportion form this quickly and literally overwhelm us this fast.

One more note: at the peak of the Delta wave, India hit +400,000 cases more than one. The Omikron wave when it hits India full force could lead to +1.5 to +2 MILLION cases per day in India alone, provided they are testing enough to even catch the positive test results.

-Stat

 

Today, 2022-01-006, our world will exceed 300,000,000 total confirmed C19 cases.

In the next days, the USA will exceed 60,000,000 total confirmed C19 cases.

 

Yesterday, Australia recorded +64,453 fresh C19 cases. Today, Australia is currently reporting +72,508 cases. At EOY 2021, Australia was rank 76 in ther total case rankings and it is currently already at rank 57, having moved 18 ranks upward in 5 days.

When I first started tracking Australia on 2021-11-030, it had 210,239 cases and I indicated on December that my eyes were seeing Australia on a similar trajectory to Vietnam, which went from 100,000 to 1,000,000 cases in 2.5 months. As of today, one month and 6 days later, Australia stands at 684,614 cases, more than three times the total cases from 5 weeks ago. Australia is moving considerably faster than Vietnam or Thailand ever did in 2021.

I suspect that Australia, which shows no sloughing off of +cases at the weekends, will likely report in with at least +75,000 new infections tomorrow and will move up in the rankings from 57 (between Belarus and South Korea) to rank 54 (between Bulgaria and Lebanon).

Omikron is on the march on all seven continents and Australia is proof that even Oceana cannot avoid this wave.

-Stat

 

From the posting before, in case you are asking how I can quote rankings so quickly, it's because I've created a cases / deaths / tests comparative table for 2021 over 2020, which will then be updated in 2023

Here the rankings of the top 65 nations in my tracking compared to their ranking numbers in 2020, first in desending order of total cases, then total deaths, then total tests:







In columns C and D and then again in columns H and I, you can see the ranking numbers for both years.

In columns A and G you can see rankings from 1 to 65, meaning the 65 I am tracking.

I see already that I have made a mistake with the Netherlands in total cases, will correct later.

However, you get the idea.

The same three data sets, sorted by ranking difference between 2020 and 2021:





Here you can see that some Southeast Asian nations jumped far to the front of the rankings in either total cases, total deaths, or both, most notably Thailand and Vietnam, but also Sri Lanka and Malaysia. Cuba (North America) also made a quantum leap from 2020 to 2021.

Where you see the blue highlighting, those are nations whose rankings did not budge at all or barely budged. The three most clear examples are stil the to three right now: The USA, India and Brazil. But many European nations like Germany, UK, Poland and France also showed much stability in the rankings.

-Stat

 

Aaaaand 2022-01-006 (Thursday) already sets a record before many of the C19 totals are 100%. This time around, both Italy and France are at well over +200,000 cases, surely the USA will be over +500,000 without batting an eye, UK is just under +200,000 and Spain is not in yet. So, we are going to end the day with at least 5 nations over the +100,000 mark (with Argentina, it may even be 6) but the difference is that 3 of them will be over +200,000.

We are talking about figures that are astronomical when compared to the Winteer wave of 2020.

 

Six days ago, on New Year's day, the UK exceeded 13,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases and France exceeded 10,000,000 such cases.

Now, just six days later, the UK just exceeded 14,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases and France exceeded 11,000,000 such cases, again both jumped the next million-mark on the same day.

Also, yesterday, 2022-01-005, India went over 35,000,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases.

 

So, it ended up that we indeed set two new records in +cases on 2022-01-006.

First, six nations registered over +100,000 new C19 cases: it ended up that both India and Argentina went over the +100,000 mark but Spain did not report in at all yesterday, which surely would have made for 7.

Second, a record-shattering 92 nations recorded at least +1,000 new C19 cases. Here as proof:




The grand total for yesterday was about 120,000 less than the day before. Had Spain reported in, then the totals would have been practically tied to each other.

Either way, we just saw two days in a row with more than +2.5 MILLION cases and our world has now exceeded 300,000,000 total cases.

Also, in the last 48 hours, the USA exceeded 59,000,000 cases, UK exceeded 14,000,000 cases, Argentina exceeded 6,000,000 cases and both Italy and Spain will exceed 7,000,000 cases today, 2022-01-007.

-Stat

 

ONE RECORD-BREAKING DAY AFTER THE OTHER​

Friday, 2022-01-007 ended up being the peak day of this week and the peak day thus far in the entire Covid-19 history of our world, with WorldMeter having recorded +2.72 MILLION new cases, while my excel table reflects +2.96 MILLION (just shy of 3 million!!) new cases. You already know the reasons for this. Alot of the "shunt" this time was Spain, which did not report in on 2022-01-006, which is why I am quoting my own posting from yesterday, so you can see the flow of events more clearly.

This time, because Spain did report in, we set a new record, with 7 nations over +100,000 cases and just as the day before, with 92 nations over +1,000 cases.

Also, on this day, as announced would happen yesterday, Spain and Italy both went over the 7,000,000-mark and the USA went over the 60,000,000 mark. Also, in the last days, on 2022-01-004, Mexico went over the 4,000,000-mark, I just didn't notice it right away.

Here screenshots to show the pertinent data, with more information after the screenshots. Please also note where Australia (rank 8 ) landed on this day:





-and-



So much for yesterday. Onward and upward, I always say....

Today, Saturday, 2022-01-008 is the second Saturday within the New Year but the first Saturday within the first Calendar Week of the year (CW 1).

A BILLION??? SRSLY??? A BILLION???? YES, SERIOUSLY....​

Just to review, on New Year's day (a Saturday), our World ended the day with +1,693,187 (almost +1.7 million) fresh C19 cases, but as you can see, as of Friday, 2022-01-007, for the first time in the history of our world, we are now averaging +2 million cases per day. Back of the envelope math tells me that if we maintain this course over the remaining 358 days in this year, then we will add another 716,000,000 cases, bringing the world to over 1,000,000,000 (1 BILLION) officially recorded cases. Of course, waves come and waves go, but just as this wave will surely (and hopefully, soon) pass, it's also just as likely that another 2 waves from different, future variants will come at us, so the proposition that we could crack the 1-billion-barrier in total cases worldwide by the end of 2022 is not so "out there" at all. Plus, there is the unknown variable (Germans call it the "Dunkelziffer") of how many cases that have happened but were not detected and the concensus among literally hundreds, if not thousands of scientists and statisticians is that there are worldwide likely 5 times as many infections that have happened than we officially see on paper. Were this to be true and this current rate holds, that would mean we would be closer to 5 billion infections, putting us right around herd immunity, assuming that reinfections are few.

Now, that was just me thinking out loud, but I am bookmarking this posting and at the end of 2022 I will be revisiting this idea to see if that is actually what happened.

In terms of yesterday, the number of +cases in the USA is absolutely catastrophic, but when compared to the total population of the country, you can see under "tot cases / 1 mil pop" (total cases per 1 million population) that both France and the UK are doing worse and if you do a percentual compare, then for the USA, +900,310 / 333,945,370 = 0.27% of the entire population of the USA that was officially listed as C-19 positive on that day. But for France, +328,214 / 65,492,529 = 0.50% of the entire population of France that was officially listed as C-19 positive on that day. This point here is that things are not going well.

Remember above where I recommended that you check out Australia's figures for that day? Australia reported +77,699 new cases yesterday

The really bad news for today is that Australia has already clocked in with just under +116,000 cases (currently: +115,976). See for yourself:




For Australia, that is a huge jump over the day before and surely quite the shock for our Aussie friends.

What this also means for today is that were we expecting a little vacation from terrible Covid-19 numbers, we are not going to get that little vacation today. Also, Spain does not report numbers on Saturdays or Sundays, so we will probably not set a new record in the number of nations to have over +100,000 new C19 cases in one day, but Australia is guaranteed to be among them.

Also, now at 877,902 cases, Australia is now only just a little over +123,000 away from the million-mark, which it will likely hit on Sunday and if not on Sunday, then guaranteed on Monday. At the same time, Morocco is now at 990,057 cases, it picked up +6,428 cases on 2022-01-007 and +6,050 cases on 2022-01-006, so it is also looking very much as if Morroco will join the million club on Monday, making Australia and Morroco the 1st and 2nd nations within this year to jump over the 1,000,000-fence and the 43rd and 44th nations overall to have done so.

The odd man out in all of this remains to be Germany. +cases are not rising nearly as fast in Germany as in neighboring cases and believe me, from what I am seeing in my corner of Germany, it's not because they are not testing. In fact, they are testing like crazy. But since the RKI always has a 10 day lag in data publication, I am suspecting that by next Tuesday, this is going to change, possibly very radically at that.

More to come soon.

-Stat

 

MOROCCO EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-01-009, 43rd NATION TO DO SO​

Today, Sunday, 2022-01-009, Morocco jumped over the 1,000,000 mark in total C19 cases:




The Moroccan values for today are unlikely to change by tomorrow morning, they are probably final:



Because Morocco went over 1,000,000 cases on a Sunday, I can screenshot the excel table.

With Morocco's entrance into the million-club, that makes for the 1st nation that has crossed over the million mark in 2022 and the 43rd overall. The first 42 nations crossed over that line in 2020-2021.

Australia will most definitely join the million-club tomorrow, 2022-01-010 and shortly therefter, Ireland, Kazakhstan and Denmark.
Very, very sobering.

-Stat

 

AUSTRALIA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-01-010
44th NATION TO DO SO​

Today, Monday, 2022-01-010, already very early in the day, Australia jumped over the 1,000,000 mark in total C19 cases:




The Australian values for today are very likely to change in the course of the day, but they are not likely to go downwards.

The excel screenshot is from yesterday, 2022-01-009, where Australia stood at the gate to 1,000,000, so that you can see the ENORMOUS rise in the raw and in the avg. +case values over the week before:



However, because Australia did not go 1,000,000 cases on a Sunday, the excel table is no longer set up to handle these daily exeptions..

With Australia's entrance into the million-club, that makes for the 2nd nation that has crossed over the million mark in 2022 and the 44th overall. The first 42 nations crossed over that line in 2020-2021.

I just began tracking Australia in mid-December 2021 and entered the data retroactively to and including 2021-11-030 and in those 43 days that ensued, Australia soared from circa +210,000 cases to circa 1,049,000 cases, one of the fastest developments I have witnessed in the last 22 months.

Ireland may very well cross the 1,000,000-line today and if not today, then tomorrow alongside Kazakhstan, with Denmark likely to follow on Wednesday or Thursday. Either way, no 45, 46 and 47 are most definitely on the way.

Very, very sobering.

-Stat

PS. I did not want to put the cart before the horse, but since I am using the "2 days ago" element by WorldOMeter for the end of each calendar week, this means that that concise analysis for yesterday first comes out tomorrow and well, this event happened in between. C'est la Vie...

 

IRELAND EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-01-010
45th NATION TO DO SO​

Today, Monday, 2022-01-010, after Australia jumped over the 1,000,000 mark in total C19 cases earlier in the day, Ireland did the same in the evening:





The Irish values for today are not likely to change in the course of the day; Ireland tends to report in only once per day and be done with it.

The excel screenshot is from yesterday, 2022-01-009, where Ireland stood not far 1,000,000, so that you can see the ENORMOUS rise in the raw and in the avg. +case values over the week before:



However, because Ireland did not go 1,000,000 cases on a Sunday, the excel table is no longer set up to handle these daily exeptions..

With Ireland's entrance into the million-club, that makes for the 3rd nation that has crossed over the million mark in 2022 and the 45th overall. The first 42 nations crossed over that line in 2020-2021.

I just began tracking Ireland alongside Australia starting starting in mid-December 2021 and entered the data retroactively to and including 2021-11-030 and in those 43 days that ensued, Ireland soared from circa +556,319 cases to circa 1,002,013 cases, one of the faster developments I have witnessed in the last 22 months, but not the fastest

Kazakhstan and Denmark are up next to cross over the 1,000,000-barrier and both nations, which will be 46th and 47th will do that within this week.
Very, very sobering.

-Stat

PS. I did not want to put the cart before the horse, but since I am using the "2 days ago" element by WorldOMeter for the end of each calendar week, this means that that concise analysis for yesterday first comes out tomorrow and well, this event happened in between. C'est la Vie...

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

Concise COVID-19 WEEKLY analysis: 2022-01-003 (Monday) through 2022-01-009 (Sunday)
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
CALENDAR WEEK 01 - FIRST COMPLETE WEEK WITHIN 2022
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations from 10,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 65 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide composite figures and 6 of the 65 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a weekly basis.

WORLDWIDE:
ΏΏΏ******** 308,866,490 ********ΏΏΏ
Our world added more than +17 MILLION total Covid-19 cases in just one week!
+17,297,270 weekly cases // daily avg = 2,471,039 = 1716.0 new cases every minute, tendency: sharply rising
+45,886 weekly deaths // daily avg = 6,555 = 4.6 new deaths every minute, tendency: rising
MANY NATIONS EXCEEDED THE NEXT MILLION MARK
MOROCCO EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES ON 2022-01-009
AUSTRALIA & IRELAND EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19-CASES DIRECTLY AFTER THIS WEEK
FOR THE OTHER MAJOR RUBRIK CHANGES DURING THIS TIME, SEE RUBRIK TABLE BELOW
-----------------------------------------​

The first full week of 2022 set records one day after the other, with +cases rising sharply literally everywhere and nations springing over the next million-mark practically every day. Our world just sprang more +cases (+17.3 million) in one week that it achieved in total during the first 6 months of the pandemic in 2020. The USA just jumped +5.3 million cases in one week. That is 1,000,000 more than of the entire population of Los Angeles, California. IN. ONE. WEEK.

You will notice that the bar for "dreadnaught" nations was raised last week from 5,000,000 total cases to 10,000,000 total cases, causing 7 nations that were in the 2021 analyses (Turkey, Germany, Spain, Italy, Iran, Argentina and Colombia) to fall out of this analysis, at least for the time being. However, Turkey just jumped over the 10,000,000-mark on the Monday after the CW being analysed and will be included in the next concise analysis.

You will also notice that the excel table now calculates weekly cases, deaths and tests (instead of daily) and that the averages are daily averages as they were before, but are no longer rolling averages. That's a difference with an important distinction. Should you have any questions about the new format of the excel tables, feel free to ask here on this thead.

Also, the new rubrik worksheet now calculates weekly (or where appropriate, quarterly) values and the exact date of a rubrik change is listed next to the country itself. I've also added the rubrik of 1,000,000 total deaths and 1,000,000,000 total tests.




I've added something new to the weekly analyses, namely a table like the one I used for EOM and of course, will now use for EOQ and EOY, here sorted only for cases, namely, + avg cases, descending:



You can see that in this last week, four nations added more than +1,000,000 cases to their count and six nations added more than +100,000 cases per day. Our world ended the week averaging +2.5 MILLION cases per day. That pace, if continued would bring our world well over 1 BILLION total C19 cases by the end of 2022, to note.



The first two screenshots of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 50 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
These WorldOMeter screenshots are from the website update from 2022-01-011, 09.00 UTC +0 (04:00 ET), using the "2 days ago" function
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the "Reference Link" (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍֍֍֍* 61,987,435 *֍֍֍֍֍֍
THE USA EXCEEDED 57, 58, 59, 60 & 61 MILLION TOTAL COVID-19 CASES IN THE SAME WEEK
THE USA LEADS WORLDWIDE IN BOTH AVERAGE +CASES & +DEATHS
+5,282,299 weekly cases // daily avg = 754,614 = 524.0 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+12,216 weekly deaths // daily avg = 1,745 = 1.2 death every minute, tendency: slightly falling
​

INDIA:
֍֍֍***** 35,708,442 *****֍֍֍
INDIA EXCEEDED 35,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
+785,560 weekly cases // daily avg = 122,223 = 84.9 new cases every minute, tendency: sharply rising
+2,043 weekly deaths // daily avg = 292 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady​

BRAZIL:
֍֍** 22,523,907 **֍֍
IS BRAZIL TESTING FOR COVID-19 ANYMORE AT ALL?
+203,679 weekly cases // daily avg = 32,954 = 22.9 new cases every minute, tendency: sharply rising
+860 weekly deaths // rolling daily avg = 123 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly rising

​

UK:
֍**** 14,475,090 ****֍
THE UK EXCEEDED 14,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES DURING THIS WEEK
+1,210,033 weekly cases // daily avg = 172,862 = 120.0 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+1,302 weekly deaths // daily avg = 186 = < 1.0 death every minute, tendency: rising
​

FRANCE:
֍** 12,111,218 **֍
FRANCE EXCEEDED 10 & 10 MILLION TOTAL COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS WEEK
FRANCE SURPASSED RUSSIA IN THE CASE RANKINGS DURING THIS WEEK
+1,860,860 weekly cases // daily avg = 265,837 = 184.6 new cases every minute, tendency: sharply rising
+1,496 weekly deaths // daily avg = 214 = 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly rising
​

RUSSIA:
֍ 10,650,849 ֍
+112,883 weekly cases // daily avg = 16,126 = 11.2 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+5,645 weekly deaths // daily avg = 806 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly falling
RUSSIA FELL BEHIND FRANCE IN THE CASE RANKINGS DURING THIS WEEK
​

 

KAZAKHSTAN EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-01-012
46th NATION TO DO SO​

Today, Wednesday, 2022-01-012, Kazakhstan jumped over the 1,000,000 mark in total C19 cases early in the day:




The Kazakh values for today are not going to change in the course of the day; Kazakhstan reports in only once per day and has until now never adjusted its numbers afterward.

With Kazakhstan's entrance into the million-club, that makes for the 4th nation that has crossed over the million mark in 2022 and the 46th overall. The first 42 nations crossed over that line in 2020-2021.

I just began tracking Kazakhstan starting starting in mid-June 2021 and since that date, the number of C19 tests performed has remained at 11,575,012 the entire times.

Denmark is up next to cross over the 1,000,000-barrier, will be 47th will do that and it will either happen later today or tomorrow at the very latest.

Very, very sobering.

-Stat

 

DENMARK EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON 2022-01-012
47th NATION TO DO SO​

Today, Wednesday, 2022-01-012, just hours after Kazakhstan jumped over the 1,000,000-mark in C19 cases, Denmark jumped over the same mark during the afternoon my time in Germany:





The Danish values for today are not likely to change in the course of the day; Denmark reports in only once per day and bis dato I have not witnessed Denmark adjust its values afterwards.

With Denmark's entrance into the million-club, that makes for the 5th nations that have crossed over the million mark in 2022 and the 47th nation overall. The first 42 nations crossed over that line in 2020-2021. Further, these 5 new entries into the million-club all happened between 2022-01-009 and 2022-01-012.

I just began tracking Denmark starting starting in mid-December 2021 and also retroactively input the figures back to EOM November 2021 and in these last 43 days, Denmark advanced +512,618 cases, from 487,401 to 1,000,009, making for a daily average of +11,921 and that in a land with only 5,800,000 residents, meaning that almost 18% of that nation has now been infected.

Cuba and Georgia are up next to cross over the 1,000,000-barrier, in the next 5-7 days, they will be 48th & 49th nations to do that, with Georgia likely getting there first.

Very, very sobering.

-Stat

 

Both 2022-01-011 and 2022-01-012 were huge C19 days, with yesterday, 2022-01-012 breaking 3 records:





And here is how the daily worldwide and USA values worked out on my excel table:





According to my excel table, the world sprang over +3,000,000 cases on both days, but according to WorldOMeter, it only happened for the 1st time yesterday, with our world having advanced +3.2 million cases in just one day. And Wednesday is traditionally not even the heaviest day of the week, I am suspecting that today will end up being even heavier.

Also, yesterday, for the first time ever, 8 nations reported more than +100,000 cases and please notice the substantial rise in +cases in India. Do not ‎be‎ surprised if India, just like the USA has already had, will have a number of days with over +1,000,000 fresh cases. Also, +cases are substantially rising in Brazil and now, finally, in Germany as well.

Also, yesterday, 2022-01-012, a record breaking 95 nations had over +1,000 cases and as was already reported, two nations went over the 1,000,000-barrier yesterday: Kazakhstan and Denmark.

Here is an important mind excercise for all of us:

Yesterday, Luxembourg was one of the 95 nations with over +1,000 cases. With a population of 640,000 people, Luxembourg reported just under +2,000 new cases. That's 0.3% of the total population of Luxembourg. The USA had +1,100,000 cases on either Sunday or Monday, depending upon the "shunt". That's, you guessed it, 0.3% of the total population of the USA. The UK has +130,000 cases yesterday. That's 0.2% of the total population of the UK. In Argentina, it was +131,000 out of a population of 46,000,000 = 0.3% of the population. However, both France and Portugal's +cases are closer to 0.5% of their respective populations. Still, right now, in a great number of nations, 0.3% of the population seems to be getting officially infected daily.

That may actually be a good sign, for it would be that the entire world could be officially infected within 300 days, assuming starting at zero cases, but were this to continue, we could certainly reach herd immunity by the summer of 2022.

-Stat

 

Yepp, today, Thursday, 2022-01-013 is going to be an absolute monster C19 day:

Australia just reported in with more than +150,000 new cases, it's 1st time at +150,000. That's 0.6% of the entire population of Australia.

Mexico reported in with +44,000 cases. At EOY 2021, Mexico was averaging +3,703 per day. Last Sunday, 2022-01-009, the new avg was +17,839. Today's +44,000 is the highest figure that Mexico has reported to date by far. That's more than 10 times it's average from 14 days ago, to note.

It's a very similar development in the Phillippines, which ended 2021 with a rolling average of +846, which went to a new average of +16,232. Phillipppines, which updates its figures more than once during the day, is currently at +34,000. That's more than 40 times more than Phillippines' avg from 14 days ago.

Belgium, which has averaging +8,397 cases per day at EOY 2021 (it was already in a bad way back then) and then averaged +19,677 cases as of last Sunday, just reported in with +39,321 cases, a record high and more than 4 times more its avg from 14 days ago.

Japan, which was averaging just +346 cases per day at EOY 2021 and was averaging +3,310 cases as of 2022-01-009, just reported in with +12,000 cases. That's 35 times more than just 14 days ago.

Kazakhstan, which just jumped over the 1,000,000-fence yesterday, was averaging +407 per day at EOY 2021 and as of 2022-01-009, that average was +940. Kazakhstan has reported +9,122 cases today. That's 10 times more than it's average from 14 days ago, to note.

Slovenia, a land I am not even tracking yet, reported +6,855 cases today, +7,432 yesterday and +5,164 on Tuesday, making for a 3 day avg of +6,483 per day. With a population of only 2.1 million, that's 0.3% of the population each day, so in the last 3 days, 1% of the entire population of Slovenia was infected. See: the posting just above this one about that 0.3% thing.

Finland, a land I just added to the tracking 2 days ago, scored +14,277 cases today, +8,661 cases yesterday and +9,768 cases on Tuesday, making for a three-day avg of +10,902. Last Sunday, Finland's 7-day average was +6,761. Finland is now on the same trajectory that I saw with Vietnam last summer. An average of +10,902 would be 0.2% of the entire population of Finland each day.

So, I can make some predictions for today for large nations that have not reported in yet:

The USA will likely hit +1 million today (again) or come extremely close to +1 million.
India will close in on +300,000 cases
We will have at least 8 nations with over +100,000 cases (the same 8 as yesterday), plus Brazil, Germany and Turkey are not far behind.

And nations that have been showing a reduction in +cases, even since the start of the new year, are now showing a turnaround and a demonstrable increase once again in cases, most notably, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria and Austria.

IF a steep rise in deaths due to omikron is to happen, then start looking toward South Africa right now, because omikron was detected there 7 weeks ago.

I suspect that worldwide, we will land at between +3.31 and +3.54 million new cases added to the total.

-Stat

 

Another year? I was hoping it would be starting to fizzle out a bit.