Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

1.1 million tests have been conducted now. I don't remember yesterday's number...I think it was 900,000. 200,000 tests per day.

 

FEMA is working to get us supplies around the clock from anywhere we can get supply.

 

Tomorrow Pence is going to a main Walmart warehouse hub to show us that there is plenty of food supply.

(That was a "hint, hint" to the idiots who are still hoarding!!!!)

 

according to a friend in FL who just went to dr. , no fever = no test, 1 week quarantine at home. sniffing and cough, tight chest, works at an airport.

 

What happens in Canada will happen in the U.S.

 

Sounds like New York, New Jersey and maybe one or two other states are going to get hit tragically hard no matter what and they're just trying to get everyone else to keep their bubbles from exploding into major issues so that the total national number of deaths comes in at 100,000 or less.

 

I guess in one week, if the symptoms get worse instead of better, the doctor wants them to come back for testing???

 

or maybe if it gets worse she skips dr do nothing and goes str8 to hospital. I understand that were not ready to test randoms in the street but I expected more than this response guess.

 

So Washington state started a "stay home" practice about 2 weeks earlier than New York or New Jersey, and they have not experienced a spike in cases because of that.

I doubt anyone on this thread is surprised by that finding.

 

The very, very, very last place in the world I would go right now is to a hospital, unless of course I was severely injured/stroke/heart attack or cold/flu/covid symptoms were "that bad". A hospital waiting room or emergency room is where the most exposure to all sorts of illnesses would be.

They are saying that if you have cold/flu, sniffles symptoms to just stay home unless your symptoms get really bad.

 

This morning, when I posted the beginning of day numbers for March 31st, 2020, I wrote the following:

*854,189*
+73,192 cases today over yesterday​

So, at end of day, 11:59 PM on March 31st, 2020 (GMT +2), the COVID-19 numbers:



Re: the quote from this morning: we went well over the 800,000 mark. We also went well over the 824,110 I mentioned, which means that the total number of COVID-19 cases has increased slightly more than TEN-FOLD in 33 days time.

Also, we had considerably more than the "just" +60,000 cases I extrapolated out this morning in order to show how we get to 1,000,000 cases by Friday at the latest.

But by far most critical thing from today's data, absolutely inescapable, is the marked rise in the death rate, to 4.92%. (It was 4.81% yesterday at EOD)

The Excel-Table back to 02/27 (you will notice, the table now fills up the entire screenshot, soon I will need 2 to cover the table):



The bad news for the raw numbers is that there were more CONSIDERABLY more new cases today over yesterday (+73,192) as compared to yesterday over the day before (+60,780). The somewhat good news is that as the pie overall grows larger, these numbers actually represent a smaller growth rate. So, for the second day in a row, we saw total COVID-19 cases growth rate under 10% (9.37%, yesterday it was 8.44%), which, over time, would definitely flatten an exponential curve.

In terms of deaths: 42,015 total, +4,454 today over yesterday, making for a 11.86% growth rate, is not good. The growth rate of deaths from today to yesterday once again outpaced the growth rate of COVID-19 cases added to the sum total.

The % of recovered people actually ticked down very slightly, from 21.09% yesterday to 20.71% at EOD today.


And per country, organized two ways from now on. Here per total cases, in reverse numerical order:



And here, in reverse numerical order of new deaths. Italy had the most deaths today:



I think the current death numbers for today are so sobering, I don't even need to highlight them.

As I am writing this posting, the Trump-administration briefing/press-conference on the work of the Coronavirus-Taskforce is going on, where both Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci have explained in great detail, based on more than one model, that the American people need to face the real possibility that at least 100,000 Americans are going to die from COVID-19. This is a very, very conservative estimate and is based on almost perfect behavior on the part of the entire population of the USA over the next 30 days in addition to the 15 days already put into effect by the President. I wish to note that this incredibly sobering information is so critical that the President of the United State of America did not give opening remarks, but rather, let the health care experts on the Taskforce speak at very great length about what is very, very likely going to happen in the next months.

For those who have been calling this a "hoax" or keep saying that this is just like the "normal flu", the events of today should have put that nonsense to bed forever.

FACIT: the death rate among officially detected and reported COVID-19 cases continues to tick upward, the number of total cases is still on an exponential curve, but the curve is not quite as steep as it was from 03/23 to 03/28. No doubt we are going to cross over 900,000 COVID-19 cases tomorrow and, depending on the number of new cases, we could very well hit 1,000,000 on Thursday. If not on Thursday, most definitely by Friday. And as of the million-mark, things will pick up steam.

Statistically, today was not a good day for our world.

May Ad-shem be with us all,

Stat

 

100,000 deaths with full mitigation. Knowing that some people will still not change behavior, it sounds like we'll probably be closer to 200,000 deaths.

Because too many people are idiots.

 

More like too many people think it won't happen to them, or will want to wait until it happens to them. But we can't wait for that to happen. We've got to presume we already have the virus and self quarantine. Or even if we don't have it, we should keep it that way ourselves.

 

It is going to be far more than 200,000. The entire estimate is based on perfect behavior and perfect conditions. And if the exponential curve increases, then far more people all over the planet will be infected than the less-conservative estimates at current.

The current death rate among officially confirmed COVID-positives = 4.92%

Let's assume that 70% of the planet, and by assumption, 70% of the USA, will be infected and we only catch 40% of the cases as officially listed as COVID-positive, that the other 60% go by as undetected.

70% of 228 million = 159.6 million. 40% of 159.6 million = 63.84 million. 4.92% of 63.84 million = 3,140,928 dead.

It is terrifyingly simple math.

 

But we can do something about that by isolating the confirmed cases. The more and more cases that are confirmed and quarantined(or in the hospital), the less chances of possible infection that there are. Since fewer carriers=less hosts for the virus.

 

Indeed. But that only works when there is complete isolation, otherwise, the virus lives on to continue to find new human hosts.

 

The other challenge is that it's not in just one or two countries, it's in every country now. Can every country truly isolate its own cases and not travel overseas/airlines, etc?

 

Those are ridiculous assumptions. Plus there is no estimate for the life saving medications which are being used successfully. My projection is 50,000 maximum. That’s based on the lower limit and optimism that the meds will have a significant beneficial effect.

 

And there's the rub, right there. Halfway, halfassed isolation will help in some areas, but the virus will continue to find human hosts. The ONLY way to kill the virus is to deprive it of human hosts. A vaccine can do that. Isolation will do it. That being said, really good isolation can drive the curve down quite a bit. The curve is still verifiably exponential at this time.

 

I think that is too pessimistic. Washington state and a few others flattened their curves without a major peak in cases. The task force is saying that is possible for everyone who lives somewhere that things haven't already exploded like NY and NJ.

But, on the pessimistic side, some places will not listen unless they have and explosion and it's too late.

Still, I wouldn't underestimate the power of peer pressure from the people who know on the people who don't know.

 

Exactly. Plus the meds.

Again what scares me however is the homeless population in California. The governor has closed all the golf courses and tennis courts because it’s easy to do but won’t make any difference. He has done nothing on the homeless who are sitting ducks for a contagious virus. All Newsome has proposed is to someway move them inside which could easily do more harm than good.

 

I've been tracking death rates on COMPLETED cases, and the disease has not had the opportunity to do it's deadly work on the newly infected.

 

Just to be crystal clear, I absolutely do not want these numbers to happen. I would much prefer to roll the hands of time back to before December and nuke that virus from the sky before it could even get started.

I can only hope that peer pressure will help.

You and I will now have at least 30 days to get to talk about it, something I find very good.

 

I'm between the two of you and going with what the Task Force just stated as the scenario. 100,000 deaths is a best case scenario right now if everyone self-isolated as much as possible. That's not going to happen, so the number will be higher than 100,000. And, since we are also not doing "nothing" to restrict movement, then we should not hit any pessimistic number close to one million.

If it looks like we're going to hit 200,000, or somewhere thereabouts, the government may have to take more drastic action. It does not sound like we will need something like France has, where you have to get permission from the government and print a "pass" to be outside your house. That isn't off the table though.

The administration is not going to allow a million people to die here, even if they have to go draconian on us.

 

There are so many people just on this forum who think this is just a regular-ole-flu - H1N1 deaths blah blah blah... some are even calling the arrested Pastor brave. I don't think there's a sober enough statistic for them. They will go down believing this is just another left wing hoax.