Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Oh, did that deal fall through??? It was just "on" yesterday or day before.

 

GM is back on board. Ford is actually modifying the design of the manufacturer for GE. They went to their factory and improved their productivity by 40% so in that sense they are already providing ventilators. US industry won WW2. And they will win this war.

 

Ford is already contributing and I think they will beat their timeline. I don’t think New York will be short ventilators.

 

It really is great to see private industry step up and help without having to be forced into it.

Definitely keeping my fingers crossed for New York. It does "look like" they have enough ventilators, but their daily numbers of cases are picking up and will increase every single day for the next 9 days before the number start to drop (according to the model). We're already seeing signs of significant stress in their doctors, nurses and other healthcare providers. I've definitely been praying for all of us, but with a special prayer going to New York and New Jersey at this time.

 

I will never forget that the President had to resort to force to get these bastards to help the American People, when the only reason they survived the Great Recession was because the American People bailed the greedy bastards out.

Maybe they view us like China does:

Lying China nationalized an American factory that makes N95 masks and forced ships full of gloves, masks, and other medical supplies purchased by New York hospitals to turn around.

To add insult to injury, Lying China sold €4,320,000,000 worth of medical supplies from the U.S. factory it nationalized to Spain. That’s 550 million masks, 5.5 million test kits, 950 ventilators, and 11 million pairs of gloves.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/how-chinas-lies-brought-the-world-to-its-knees/

 

They are getting more ambulances and EMT’s. We will probably see nurses and doctors going to New York as required.

 

Don’t know the details but GM is back.

What also is ridiculous is that we shipped medical supplies to China.

 

Very true, I hadn't thought about that. A lot of states sent firefighters to California when that state was burning down. No reason not to have health care workers go to another state and help out the worst hit...as long as the hot spots stay spread out in time.

 

There may even be healthcare personnel from other countries. I was on a plane during the California wild fires with several Australian firefighters.

 

Good evening. Tonight, the numbers were disappointing. Although, not all that unexpected. Here's what I'm looking at:


On the good news, Italy clearly looks to have peaked in cases back on day 10-11 of their lockdown (they are on day 21). Two days of barely crossing into 4000 after just a few days ago being right up against 6000 is a significant pullback. We can only hope that trend continues and ultimately releases the pressure the hospitals are under. More in depth, the Lombardy region has been notably in decline. After hitting 2600 on Mar 26, new cases have steadily fallen down to only 1000 new cases today.

On the somewhat hopeful side, Germany might have peaked out in new cases back on Mar 26-28. This would be a scant 6 days into their curfew, but possibly other actions were taken before that took place. It would be a relief to see things start to cool off there as deaths are starting to mount with a higher total each day.

On the other hand, the US has moved into the 20K's - a first for any nation. Worse, we are not really seeing signs of a slow down in new cases - with the US having posted a ~15% increase for the last three days. France also had a startlingly significant jump, completely wiping out the unusual low from Mar 29 and getting to the upper 10%'s for the first time in a while for new cases.

On the deaths front, things were even worse:


Spain had a bit of a pullback finally from the 900's, but on the other side of that this makes the first time the US has matched Spain in total deaths. It was likewise fairly bad across the board with most hotspot nations posting a significant jump in total deaths vs yesterday. Particularly notable were the UK, Belgium, and the Netherlands which were all essentially double yesterday's.

In the mortality figures, the US finally went over 2% and continues to move up. New cases are no longer outpacing deaths, so this is pretty much the trend you can expect for the near future. Likewise, Germany passed the 1% mortality threshold. It is a trend that has been universal with virtually all hotspot nations. Even the new addition Turkey has stopped dropping in mortality and is slowly creeping back up as deaths mount there.

Only Iran is currently going in the opposite direction in mortality rates. However, you may notice that even though there were even more deaths today than usual in Iran, the number of new cases are just dwarfing them as of late - which we can only expect to result in further deaths down the road.

Lastly, I would like to once again address the nations that we can see at the moment are probably under reporting:



As I have stated before, I don't think there's any chance Indonesia has those kinds of death figures this early on in their outbreak with that few currently infected. For comparison, Austria has 128 dead with 10,180 cases. Now I don't know much about the health care systems of Indonesia or Austria, but that is a very striking difference and shows Austria almost certainly has a more accurate total case count.

Likewise, the numbers from the other nations highlighted appear too different from the global numbers at such an early stage of the outbreak (according to their official numbers) that they would have so few infections. For instance, if you take a look at the Turkey mortality rates above, they are currently at 214 deaths and just added 2700 new cases today.

It is what drives the mortality rate down so quickly early on - lots of new cases showing up, some of which are serious enough that result in death. But typically death will trail a while after the infection and even symptoms start to show up. So once there's a significant number of bodies starting to pile up without the explosion of cases you see would see in a Germany, or a US, or a Turkey, or an Austria to drive down that initial mortality %, it's a pretty obvious sign that there's a lot more cases of coronavirus going around undetected or unreported.

Anyways, that's all for tonight. As always, you can find this stuff and more I track on my sheet here.

 

Maybe not. But odds are it was somewhere like this that prompted their behavior.

This may interest people who deal in facts. This story posted three days before the Arizona clowns drank their home brew. Trump did not write this piece.

https://web.archive.org/web/2020032...ng-tested-to-treat-coronavirus-568976771.html

So we have Trump on record never mentioning fish tank additive and media on record doing so. And we blame......Trump of course.

 

That’s tragic. The media geniuses were actually claiming that fish tank cleaner could cure Corona virus.

Appenry they don’t teach fact checking in journalism school anymore.

 

How do you make your own pizza when you don't have any money to buy the ingredients or pay for the utilities?

Yes, the supply chain MIGHT be robust enough to survive but there are ZERO plans at the Federal Level to ensure that it is treated like an ESSENTIAL SERVICE.

Consider what is likely to happen when people without any money are unable to buy the food in those supermarkets. Once a single shop is looted the rest become targets too. The violence escalates to the point of a revolution because the people have no LEGITIMATE means of obtaining food for themselves and their families.

And it won't be contained to just poverty stricken areas either. The delivery trucks will be hijacked and then the food doesn't make it to other areas.

We are on the brink of things becoming very bad very quickly IF there is no Federal effort to ensure that everyone has BOTH the funds to PURCHASE food and that it is AVAILABLE in the stores at the same time.

And this has nothing whatsoever to do with politics. It is just a matter of dealing with the REALITY of the situation we find ourselves in as a NATION. Without jobs there is no income and without income people cannot buy food.

No one is addressing this issue but it NEEDS to be taken SERIOUSLY.

 

Did you miss what Congress did and what the President signed last week ??

 

Bingo!

What makes it even worse is that we do NOT have a good idea of the ratio of asymptomatic carriers to those with symptoms.

Even if we were to make a low ball assumption of 1:1 that would DOUBLE the number of cases IMMEDIATELY.

We have no way of identifying and isolating those asymptomatic carriers without testing either. Germany is succeeding because they are testing EVERYONE so that they KNOW who those asymptomatic carriers are and can ensure that they are quarantined so as NOT to keep spreading the virus.

Here in America we don't have any clue which is why we are allowing them to go about their daily lives infecting who knows how many others in the process?

That is NOT how you manage, contain and end a Pandemic.

 

But that is the easy part - because Donald Dork refused from the get-go to assume that COV-19 might be the problem. (Think what it would do - and has done - to the hotelery-business!)

The guy is a dolt! A rich cretin! Daddy gave him everything on-a-platter and spoiled him rotten. Then a misguided American Electoral College handed him the presidency on a platter. Because he had LOST the popular-vote!

I'll bet he still spends more time (of the cuff) running his hotels than he does the presidency! He knew full well what a plague would do and has done to the hotel-business ... !

 

Great to hear that TX is finally trying to get their act together but not good to hear that your rate of POSITIVE testing is to high.

Think about it this way, almost one out of every 10 people in the state has already been infected and could potentially pass it on to others. How many people live on your street? The population of TX is just under 30 million with means that almost 3 million are already infected. If 11% need hospitalization that is almost 300,000 right now.

On the positive side Texans now have some idea of the size of the problem in their state. Now they need to clamp down and stop the spread by all means possible.

I sincerely hope that they manage to get this under control for all concerned.

One more thought to ponder. The entire US population is 11 times the size of TX. Extrapolate those numbers nationwide and we gain a glimpse of just how serious the situation really is right now.

 

I think that is realistic. I know people want things to get back to normal ASAP, but I don’t see that happening for months. Restrictions eased and modified in some form, yes. But truly “back to normal”? Not before next year.
It would not surprise me if the entire MLB season were cancelled.

 

Yes. The daily press briefings would be much better if it was just them.

 

Three weeks ago, on March 10th, when we only had just 949 cases of the virus and 30 deaths I started a thread to do my own estimates.

http://politicalforum.com/index.php...-regular-flu-mortality-doing-the-math.569272/

If we do manage to keep it under a million that will only happen because we impose draconian measures nationwide.

If we don't then my estimates are going to be on the low side because I was using 3% and we are already seeing closer to 5% worldwide.

I wish that it was otherwise but I have to accept the reality of the numbers.

 

I mean, there's certain Pizza crust that's about $1.65 in the supermarket and pepperoni costs as much in the supermarket. So you can definitely buy ingredients to make(albeit a cheap) pizza, or a frozen pizza. But I do agree that we're at a risk of a violent cataclysm in this country, unlike anything we'd seen. Since the Union is not fractured along fault lines like in the Civil War, and since this cataclysm is not politically motivated as you point out.

The virus crisis, and the economic crisis that has been generated by the government plans, are joint in the hip to create unusual circumstances for the American country. As you said, it's reality. It's such harsh reality that a Liberal like yourself and a Nationalist such as I, see it for what it is. We as a nation must address this calamity.

It's why I feel a mixed-plan of gradual opening up while keeping our most vulnerable/the still sick in quarantine is the best possible play we can make.

 

Darwinian that Science Denialism has now become an existential threat.

 

GOOD LUCK!

As far as infections are concerned, the proper question is "How many people do you meet on your street?". And that aint a lot. (But if you do, "handshaking" is now out of the question!)

Because the most perilous context is how many you meet at the supermarket - which is the sole and most important exigence we all have in the midst of a plague.

And the next question is, How close is your contact with those with whom you shop? Less than a meter (3 feet) sometimes? Then you'd best be wearing a mask. But, what mask?

See here: Healthline - Can Face Masks Protect You from the 2019 Coronavirus? What Types, When and How to Use

Excerpt:

Your best-bet is the N-95 respirator.

That's the easy part. Now, go find one.

And "Good Luck!" ...

 

Yes!

Knowledge of who is infectious is VITAL in order to contain and stop the spread. If even one infectious person slips through the virus starts spreading again.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fr...iral%2Fwhy-is-coronajihad-trending-on-twitter

Muslim congregation in Indian capital city Delhi spreads hundreds of cases in India. Right wing alleges deliberate attempt to spread coronavirus---coronajehad .