Trade war with China a big, fat zero ... or worse

Yes, that is why it is called War. Whether violence or trade or even, sports.


Every nation has to lose, but one nation loses, most, and so they give in. Like China will.


And remember too, you cannot disguise how this war is EXACTLY because of our economy Trump is concerned about.

 

Aw, so you listen "leftie radio." Interesting.

Which, of course explains why we have the largest, and most successful, economy in the world, by far.

Actually, what the guy said makes no sense. Why is he questioning success? Why are you?

Prove that statement. Provide leftie leadership who are complaining about that. The Democrats are pleased with the job growth and the very low unemployment. It began under Obama who had 76 straight months of job growth.

So, prove it.

Any conservative in his right mind is sharply critical of the numbskull in the Oval Office. That is what I do.

 

"Trump and his fans think bringing China down will be a great victory." You are so wrong in so many ways. Detente did work - but the Chinese culture does not embrace win-win deals - they will screw you if you allow it - and if you allow them to screw you, you deserve it. That's business. Obama allowed the Chinese to screw the US - President Trump has put and end to it. The Chinese and The US will battle it out until equilibrium has been met.

The Obama way:
Give the country away - sell America to the highest bidder - export all of the good jobs - open the borders and flood the country with illiterate and diseased invaders - and then maintain the status quo and resist any and all change.

The Trump way:
Take the country back, focus on improving the equality of opportunity to achieve any status for all American families, focus on bringing all foreign trade treaties back into equilibrium. Close the borders, lower taxes, shrink government.

 

Nice concise writeup but you are wasting your breath explaining facts to a leftie claiming to be a conservative.

 

Not according to the facts. If you research the origin of BRICs nations and their monetary-focus, you will quickly see the err of your analysis.

The 40 or so nations which the BRICs coerced, did choose an alternative. They abandoned the US Dollar, and we cannot play pretend about this.

This is true. It is also irrelevant to the goal of BRICs nations.

I have never heard of a claim like this one, ever, so it is very intriguing for sure. Can you list some of these nations, please?

Exactly. BRICs nations.

 

How silly. China already had big tariffs on US goods and that was only the small things they have done. People have allowed China to get away with doing what they want in hopes China would finally straighten up and be a normal country. Not happening.

It is time to deal with China. They only understand rule of the jungle.

The Dow has been dropping partly because of trade fears. As any novice trader knows "buy on fear" because it does not last.

 

"Trump and his fans think bringing China down will be a great victory." You are so wrong in so many ways.

Then you proceed to prove I was right.

Thank you. With a post like that you are obviously a Trump supporter.

Trump has been in office for nearly two years. Why is it the benefit of Trump's policies are always some time in the future?

 

Your dislike for President Trump is making you intellectually dishonest - Here are a few of President Trumps accomplishments:
· Decreased black and Hispanic unemployment to a record low.
· Decreased jobless claims at the lowest level since 1969.
· Black business ownership jumped 400 percent.
· Increased consumer confidence to the highest level in 18 years.
· Decreased youth unemployment to 52-year low.
· Increased median income to highest in history.
· Increased business investments 39 percent.
· Decreased food stamp use by 500,000 in one month.
· Increased homebuilding permits to the highest since 2007.
· Increased oil production to 10 million barrels a day for the first time since 1970.
· In first 18 months, increased the stock market to an all-time high
o Stopped $230 million in rebuilding payments to Syria.
o Brought back soldiers’ remains from the Korean War.
o Secured release of American prisoners from North Korea.
o Negotiated peace talks between North and South Korea.
o Signed an order calling for work requirements for welfare.
o Nominated the first woman to lead the CIA.
o Collected record taxes in first month under tax cuts; ran surplus in January 2018.
o Proposed largest civil service change in 40 years - “Hire the best and fire the worst.”
o Signed bipartisan bill to combat synthetic opioids.
o Decreased federal bureaucracy by 16,000 positions and slashed government regulations.

 

For an experts view:

Economic and trade analysis[edit]

Opening trade to imports lowers the price from Pa to Pw and increases the quantity from Qa to Ct. This increases consumer surplus (the area under the demand curve but above price) by X+Z as consumers can purchase more goods at lower prices. However, it also reduces producer surplus (the area above the supply curve but below the price) by X, as domestic producers supply fewer goods at lower prices. Domestic producers will choose to produce at Qt, with the quantity gap between Qt and Ct filled by imports. This overall gain from free trade is area Z, although there are winners (consumers) and losers (domestic firms and their employees).[49]

Diagram showing effects of an import tariff, which hurts domestic consumers more than domestic producers are helped. Higher prices and lower quantities reduce consumer surplus (the area above price but under the demand curve) by areas A+B+C+D, while expanding producer surplus (the area below price but above the supply curve) by A and government revenue by C (the import quantity times the tariff price.) Areas B and D are dead-weight losses, surplus lost by consumers and overall.[49]

U.S. Trade Balance and Trade Policy (1895–2015)

Real GDP, Real Wages and Trade Policy in the US (1947–2014)[50][51]

U.S. Productivity, Real Hourly Compensation and Trade Policy (1948-2013)[52]

U.S. trade deficit (in billions, goods only) by country in 2014

U.S. trade deficit (in billions, goods and services) by country in 2017

Average Tariff Rates on manufactured products
A survey of leading economists by the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business showed a consensus that imposing new US tariffs on steel and aluminum will not improve Americans’ welfare.[53] Economists say that the tariffs will lead to more harm than gains, as the price for steel increases, which will harm consumers and Americans working in manufacturing industries that use steel (these jobs outnumber those who work in steel-producing sectors by 80 to 1).[54][55][56] The big winners of the tariffs are some American steel- and aluminum-producing industries; some of the producers (especially small- and middle-sized ones) who are reliant on foreign inputs may struggle as a result of the tariffs.[56][57][58] A study of the proposal indicated that it would lead to an estimated loss of 146,000 jobs.[59] Studies of the 2002 steel tariffs enacted by the Bush administration show that they caused more job losses than job gains.[54]Jobs losses could be even greater if other countries retaliate against the United States with their own tariffs on various American products.[60]

Scholars warned that the Trump administration's use of "national security" rationales[61] (these have not been commonly used by past administrations) for the tariffs could undermine the international tradingorder, as other states could use the same rationales for their own tariffs.[54][62][56][63] The WTO allows states to take actions necessary to ensure their national security, but this provision has been sparsely used, given that it could be abused.[64] Whereas national security reasons were cited for the tariffs, it has been noted that tariffs primarily harm American allies, not enemies; the United States imports very little steel and aluminum from China directly.[65] Trade experts furthermore noted that the United States already produces more than two-thirds of its own steel.[63]

Forty-five U.S. trade associations are urging Trump not to impose tariffs on China, warning it would be "particularly harmful" to the U.S. economyand consumers.[66]

The National Retail Federation has been vocal in its opposition of the tariffs. The NRF also launched an ad campaign with Ben Stein, who reprised his role as the economics teacher from “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off” arguing that tariffs are bad economics and hurt consumers.[67][68][69]

General Motors announced closure of plants in Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, and Ontario, and cutting over 14,000 jobs, citing steel tariffs as a factor.[70][71] Trump expressed frustration with the decision.[72]

 

The BRIC nations did not completely abandon the US dollar - the international system of payments. Just because 2 nations - or a group of nations- develop an alternative payment method .. does not mean they have completely abandoned the US dollar. They still use the international system ... they also have an alternative.

Of course it is true - and it is relevant to the goal of the BRIC nations if the BRIC nations start using the SDR's and if the SDR's become available to corporation and individuals as an alternative payment method.

It is not only the BRIC nations that have been clamoring for an alternative - Why else do you think SDR's were created ? If not as alternative to the US dollar - why not just continue using SWIFT. It was developed specifically due to calls for an alternative.

This clamoring was going on prior to the recent trade war and in particular the sanctions .. but the calls have gotten much louder since.
Nations such as France and Germany for example calling out the US for violation of sovereignty .

The "nuclear option" is the US threatening to lock banks in these nations out of the international system. This essentially puts an international bank out of business.

Strong words are being used.
US faces European backlash against Iran sanctions

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...res-countermeasures-against-us-iran-sanctions

This is just one article.

When Trump visited France around remembrance day .. Macron basically did the political equivalent of saying "FU" to his face.

Emmanuel Macron calls for creation of a ‘true European army’ to defend against Russia and the US

Trump went into a twitter tizzy after Macron's remark and other of Macron's criticisms

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201811121069726271-macron-less-dependent-eu-dollar/

 

The first half of the list of accomplishments has to do with the economy. Trump has done nothing for the economy except threaten it. He inherited a growing economy from Obama who had 76 straight months of job growth.

The second half are modest accomplishments at best. One would expect his administration to have done something in two years.

These accomplishments need to be balanced with his failures.

Leading off the list, his personal lawyer for 12 years has incriminated him in two felonies. The New York prosecutor has corroborated those charges.

There are four Congressional investigations and one special prosecutor investigation into Trump's collaboration with a hostile foreign power and obstruction of justice. It is being suggested that Putin has something on Trump. We don't know for sure because Trump is the first President since Nixon not to reveal his tax returns. What is he hiding?

Trump is amoral and has admitted to sexual promiscuity and is known to know have two affairs, one with a porn star the other with a Playboy bunny, while married to the First Lady and months after the birth of their son, Barron.

Trump named Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, thereby removing the U.S. as a power broker in the Mideast because the Arab nations don't trust him. The U.S. has been replaced by Russia.

Because of Trump, the U.S. is the only nation in the world not to be a member of the Paris Accord which is attempting to control global warming.

Trump imposed a 25% steel tariff and a 10% aluminum tariff on our friends and trading partners creating trade wars which are damaging to all economies.

Trump imposed harsh tariffs on China, thereby causing a trade war damaging to the two largest economies in the world.

As a consequence to Trump's trade wars, all the gains made this year in the stock market have been wiped out and millions of American have lost a great deal of their savings in IRA's and mutual funds.

Trump removed the U.S. from JCPOA which permanently barred Iran from making a nuke and replaced it with harsh language and weak sanctions. As a consequence to Trump's decision, Iran is now free to copy the U.S.. She can follow Trump's precedent and remove herself from the JCPOA and resume her nuclear research if she so chooses.

Trump has shown a fondness for communist dictators Putin, Kim Jong Un, and Xi.

Trump has antagonized the leaders of our allies, Britain's May, Canada's Trudeau, France's Macron, and Germany's Merkel.

Trump has threatened NATO, an alliance meant to control Russia.

I could go on, but you get the picture. This is why I dislike the Trump administration.

I have been accused of having TDS. In view of the facts which I just laid out -- facts you are unable to question -- it is Trump's fans who are deranged. Supporting Trump is not in their best interests. You provided his "accomplishments." I provided his failures. A comparison of the two illustrates what I mean.

 

The Dow is down again, currently over 200 points. There are three factors, and one of them is directly related to Trump.

The Dow has suffered a series of punishing drops on nagging fears of slowing global growth, unresolved trade worries and the pace of the Federal Reserve’s rate increases, with Monday’s action threatening to place the Dow at its lowest closing level of 2018 at 24,100.51.

It is currently at 23,923.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...-poised-to-engulf-the-stock-market-2018-12-17

 

Probably. Protectionist tariffs, like the ones Trump is using, is a liberal concept. The GOP is the free trade party and Congress controls tariffs, not the executive branch. However, the Republicans in Congress refuse to rein in Trump even when he uses tactics that are an anathema to the GOP.

Even though Trump lost badly in the mid-terms -- a referendum on his administration he said -- and his disapproval rating hovers between 55 and 60%, Republicans are still hitching their star to Trump for some strange reason.

 

"Although Trump predicted that the U.S. would win any trade war with China hands down, he has managed to prove just the opposite ... the maxim that no one wins a trade war has become true once again."

You don't know that because the trade war isn't over yet. Patience. It is working.

 

Even if the U.S. "loses" they still win.
If trade stopped, at least it would cut the trade deficit.

China has much more to loose from a cessation of trade than the U.S. does.

Also, every dollar given to China is another dollar the U.S. military has to spend in the Pacific.

 

So, you don't mind if the U.S. loses as long as China loses more. Have you ever heard of the term "pyrrhic victory?"

 

CNN Business reports, "The US stock market sank deeper into the red following sluggish economic reports on Monday and bad news from a couple of blue chip giants.

"The Dow fell 508 points, or 2.1%. The S&P 500 lost 2.1% and retreated to its lowest level of the year. And the Nasdaq joined the Dow & S&P 500 in negative territory for 2018. All three indexes have plunged nearly 8% so far this December."

Trump on Saturday hailed a court decision against Obamacare as "a great ruling for our country."

CNN continues,"Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH) fell nearly 3% after a federal judge in Texas ruled late Friday that the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, was unconstitutional."

 

Have you looked at the stock market lately? It is brutal, and Wall Street is the bellwether of our economy.

Trump has been President for nearly two years. Why are his successes always sometime in the future?

In the meantime, as the stock market indicates, there is chaos. Maybe you like losing money in your IRA and/or mutual funds.

 

My wife returned from Christmas shopping and I think I can safely say she single handedly blew up the trade deficit for December. She bought a lot of clothes for the grandkids. Every one I looked at was made in China.

 

A lot of factors affect the market. You should know that. However, the US will be the blinker in the trade war. China has far more patience than we have.

 

That is exactly what I am talking about. Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese goods beginning Jan. 1. That would have been disastrous for the consumer. Now it looks like we a got a 90-day reprieve. We are back to square one for 90 days. In the meantime, the stock market is negative for the year and millions of Americans have lost part of their savings in IRA's and mutual funds. There are other factors, but a lot of it has to do with trade uncertainties caused by Trump.

Now Trump is threatening to close down the federal government four days before Christmas.

Your wife did good. The market is rebounding a little bit today.

Merry Christmas.

 

That is happening already. Trump blinked.

 

This was written on Nov. 23.

Trump threatened a government shutdown if he did not get his way with the border wall. “Could there be a shutdown? There certainly could, and it will be about border security, of which the wall is a part,” Trump said.

Again! How many times has Trump threatened a government shutdown over the border wall Mexico was supposed to pay for ... or so he promised? Three, four, five times, I have lost count. It has yet to happened. Again, more propaganda for his diminishing gullible base.

ABC News reported this today, "As Friday’s deadline to fund the government looms, the White House appeared to back off President Donald Trump's $5 billion demand for border wall funding Tuesday, spinning up questionable options that aides hope would allow the president to save face without shutting down the government."

In a rare and short press briefing on Tuesday, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said the administration will be looking into other federal agencies to cough up the money for the wall.

“The president has asked every agency to look and see if they have money that can be used for that purpose,” Ms Sanders said. “We’re looking at every avenue available.”

When asked about taxpayer liability for the wall, Sanders said, "We’re not asking American taxpayers for that. We are looking at existing funding through other agencies right now that we can draw on to do that in — immediately."

Was she serious? Well, yes, she was. Only a Trump staffer could say something that stupid. Any existing funding that other agencies have in their coffers is taxpayer money. So, trying to claim the money isn’t coming from the American public is either misinformed or misleading. My God, this is our executive branch. They know less about government than my sixth grade neighbor.

Trump threatened weeks ago to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese goods on Jan. 1. Now he is backing off of that, claiming a deal with China that puts us back to square one. He raves about the deal, but he accomplished nothing other than eliminate a problem he created. In Trump's world, this is success.

This is almost comical. I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

 

New York (CNN Business)Few people on Wall Street remember the last time the stock market had this tough of a December. That's because the Dow and S&P 500 are currently on track for their biggest December loss since the Great Depression.

The December 2018 swoon is making investors nervous that earnings growth may have peaked this year. They're worried that the economy could slow in 2019 because of continued trade tensions with China and rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Trump's fans are not fans of this thread, but, for those who are concerned about the future, I will try to keep you informed.

 

Four in a row. Try to focus on the tariffs which are nowhere settled except in the mind of lefties.