Trump Approval / Disapproval - a fine point to watch

I'm going to use the current polling aggregate from RealClearPolitics (RCP) as a good example:




In case you are wondering how there can be such an incredible disparity in Approval ratings for Pres. Trump, look at the kind of survey groups that were used.

Gallup, Reuters, CNBC and IBD all use Adults as their polling group. For the longest time, THIS was the metric for judging presidential approval, since the logic is that you don't need to even be a registered voter in order to voice your approval or disapproval of any president. Look at the metrics there: Trump -19, -16, -14 and -18. So, among these four polls that use the same polling group methodology, it's Trump -16.75, and that is in his fifth month as our President. IBD and CNBC are hardly left-leaning in any way.

And this RCP composite doesn't even include the newest AP-Norc poll (also an Adults survey group), which shows Trump approval/disapproval at 35/64, Trump -29!.

http://apnorc.org/PDFs/June%20Trump%20A ... _TRUMP.pdf

However, I find the AP poll too left-leaning. The partisan breakdown is D46 / R 33, D+13, which I find wholly unlikely. Critique where critique is due. Also, in the polling group, only 64% of voters are White, which is also not in line with the demographics of our Republic. So, this poll is definitely flawed more than most.

Under polling groups that use RV (a technique that I question): YouGov, PPP (D), Quinnipiac, it's Trump -9, Trump -11, Trump -23, the average for which is: Trump -14.33.
There is far too much disparity between Quinnipiac and YouGov in this case, but Quinnipiac also does live interviews, which is considered the better method.

And then there is Rasmussen, a pollster that decided, mysteriously, to poll "likely voters", in spite of the fact that the next presidential election is in a little more than 3 years from now. And Rasmussen, which hides behind a paywall and which does not release any internals (fact), shows Trump at 50/50, a tie. LOL LOL LOL

There is no empirical evidence anywhere that 50% of the country even remotely approves of Pres. Trump. So, when we talk about a mathematical outlier, it's the Rasmussen poll, followed by the AP-poll, which is also too flawed to be considered good data.

The SurveyMonkey online poll, which polled over 17,000 adults, shows Trump approval/disapproval at 43/55, Trump -12.
Trump Approval Poll: June 9-15 | SurveyMonkey Blog

That value is very much in line with PPP (D)'s value of Trump -11.

No matter how you slice it, and irregardless of the Rasmussen outlier, Trump's approval in only his 5th month as our president, is deeply underwater.

No other president has been this far underwater this early in the game. That is statistical FACT.

-Stat

 

Thanks for that analysis, Stat!

Perhaps it might be worthwhile running averages of pollsters that are using the same methodologies in groups instead. I agree that the adults polling is probably the most accurate given that it doesn't matter whether or not you actually voted.

What I found interesting about the Rasmussen outlier poll is WHO they are polling and it is probably the demographic of those who were able to vote in 2016 (excluding those whose votes were suppressed). Given that Rasmussen does have a bias to the right of 3.9 then their adjusted numbers are probably 47/53 approve/disapprove for that subset of the population.

One more point is that all of those polls are BEFORE the BLOTUS came under investigation for obstruction of justice. I suspect that could have yet another negative impact.

 

These polls demonstrate to me more the power of the media than they do anything else.

Bill Clinton's approval ratings hit 37% at the same point BTW. So much for this carefully crafted narrative of yours.

 

It is important that at least 2 or 3 new threads be started every time a polling company issues a release. That way members can post the same messages over and over to increase their valuable post count.

"Adults" don't matter in politics. Nor do registered voters. The only people who matter are registered voters who vote. This is obvious. Of those, when you factor in those will will vote Democratic no matter what and those who will vote Republican no matter what, less than 5% of "adults" and no more than 10% of registered voters matter at all. It is finding those persuadable voters that is the only relevancy to any polling or general election. Everyone else is irrelevant.

A 16 point spread between the polls also essentially discredits their validity.

It also is notable that generally the post WW2 presidents who polled the lowest in approval also are the presidents who polled on other dates with the highest approval. How voters who vote feel now has little relevancy to how voters who vote will feel when they vote.

 

Why am I not in the least surprised that the extremist alt right disparages the opinions of hardworking Americans when it comes to their BLOTUS?

At most the extremist alt right comprises 25% of the population but apparently only their opinions count. Everyone else is irrelevant as far as they are concerned.

 

If that is the case then why is your side claiming a poll in another thread by CNN that actually supports Trump is inaccurate and false? 70% of the people in this poll were in favor of Trump but everyone on your side says it's fake, fishy or wrong so why are all of these polls to be trusted?

To be honest I don't trust any polls after the election but that's just me. Even the ones that lean in my favor I still would not trust.

 

His approval will go up when he starts building the great wall and finalizes his tax plan. Killing NAFTA would also help. He has not been president very long.

When his approval does go up the right will just start threads showing his approval ratings going up and you all will say they are inaccurate or fake. You people on the left are just setting yourselfs up for it. You think your telling us something by posting threads like this but they mean nothing. Trump's approval rating will go up and when it does we all know you guys won't start a single thread about it LOL.

No poll should be trusted unless they get every single person that voted and no poll ever does.

 

Did the DNC collude with the media to make these polls like they did during the election?

Why do you still parrot establishment propaganda? Don't you feel played?

http://www.politicalforum.com/index...race-ossoff-is-leading-in-all-polling.506990/
Are you ever going to be right?

Can't wait to see your blue wave, landslide predictions for 2018.

0 credibility, just a propaganda parrot

 

2018 is going to be yet again a Democrat beat down.

 

You guys need to face the facts...

President Donald J. Trump is kicking liberal butt and taking names.

 

Didn't the extremist alt right say that exact same thing in 2006 and 2008 and 2012?

 

The states are telling your beloved BLOTUS to shove his request for voter names up his own YUUUGE orange butt.

 

Yet more proof that your side cheats...

Just ask crazy bernie...

It's all falling apart for you

 

Hard working Americans elected President Donald J. Trump..

The extremist alt left hates America....

Winning..................

 

Delusional non sequitur!

 

Plain to see you have a hard time with Facts.................

 

Ironic!

 

I didn't... My scorecard is pretty solid.

 

Since this is a political message board individual scorecards are anecdotal.

 

If you want to know the future you just ask ol' Conviction.

 

Every year Military Times conducts a survey of the troops who wear the uniform, active duty, reserves, Guard and their families.

The results are published every year usually in the month of November.

They ask a couple of dozens questions, morale with in your unit, are you a happy as a clam serving in the military ? Why did you enlist in the military ? Then they get into the political questions. Are you a conservative or a hate America liberal ? Republican, Democrats or independent ?

They ask what is your rank of rating, branch of service, race, gender, peter puffer or not etc.

Then they ask about the President's approval but they ask two separate questions.

Approval rating as POTUS.

Approval rating as Commander in Chief of the military.

The President to have the highest approval rating as CnC was President Reagan. No surprise there.

In 2009 Obama;s approval rating as POTUS was in the 50% range but as CnC around 37% if I remember correctly. The lowest approval rating as CnC in history. By 2013 it was around 17% approval rating as CnC. By 2016 Obama was in the single digit approval rating as CnC.

I'm curious what President Trump rating will be as CnC when the survey is released in November ?

From what I'm hearing with in the Officers Corps, officers are no longer in fear of being purged from the military for speaking what they think and are very optimistic with President Trump being their Commander in Chief.They are happy as clams that CnC Trump has ended Obama's politically correct Rules of Engagement in Afghanistan and the Middle East that favored the enemy and caused American troops to bleed and die in the name of liberal political correctness.

 

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/trump-approval-military-drops/2017/06/06/id/794474/

In other words the BLOTUS's approval amongst the military is 41% which is barely above his 39% rating amongst the population as a whole.

 

You need a better source to quote.

I can't get pass the WSJ pay wall.

Is the poll a approval rating as President of the United States or approval rating as Commander in Chief ???

A yuuge difference when it comes to the polling the military.

 

This needs to be updated through the 4th Of July.

 

We really have not had a competent POTUS since Ike.