Trump Approval / Disapproval - a fine point to watch

You have missed a very important point. Let's see if you realize it at all.

This is voter SELF-identification.

Just as voter self-identification showed D+8 in 2008 (it was), R+7 in 2010 (it was in the HOR), D+6 in 2012 (it was), R+4 in 2014 (it was), D+4 in 2016 (it was). The fact is that in virtually every single poll, D voters are coming out of the woodwork to give input, yet another sign of a wave, just as we saw an R-wave in 2010 and 2014.

 

So you have a poll of whackjobs who are obsessed with giving their whackjob viewpoint?

And you think that helps your case?



Polls being heavily oversampled for Democrats, creating an 11% swing in approval numbers

 

Your grasp of polling methods is sorely lacking.

 

This proves that your hyperpartisanship is blinding you to reality. Voters of the party that is not your party are not necessarily "whackjobs". And when polling in 2014 showed a distinct tilt toward GOP voters, I did not complain, because once again, we are talking about voter SELF-identification. It's not perfect, but usually a darned good indication of where things are going.

I wish you luck in finding better ways to communicate with people, because your current juvenile and uninformed way is really not serving you at all....

 

So, six days ago, with polling that ended at the latest on August 1st, 2017, his approval/disapproval was at: -18.7

As of this morning on August 8th, with polling going as late at August 6th, his approval/disapproval now stands at: -18.9, practically unchanged (a -0.2 shift is statistically insignificant, can simply be "noise"), in spite of the fact that 5 new polls are in the mix and 3 fell out of the statistic:



Some important details here:

Gallup and Rasmussen are still close to each other, but not tracking identically with each other anymore. Both show a slight improvement for the President, if you can call going from 36% to 38% "improvement". The bottom two polls on this list (FOX and PPP) are going to fall out of the statistic in the next days and they show the best values of all for the President (-12, -14, respectively), so it is statistically going to get worse before it gets better for the Pres., if at all.

For me, the HUGE surprise in all of this was the disastrous polling for him in the IBD/TIPP poll. The Investors Business Daily is a very, very, VERY pro-Republican, pro-Conservative publication, and yet, they show his worst bottom-line (32%) of any pollster to date. At -27, the IBD statistic is pretty much identical to the Qpiac statistic, something very, very unusual.

From the article itself:

http://www.investors.com/politics/t...-as-support-from-his-base-slips-ibdtipp-poll/

IBD also published a graphic to make this data somewhat clearer:




And the timeline graph ONLY for IBD/Tipp:




And as a final note, Rasmussen has the president currently at: -16. On this same date in 2009, Rasmussen had Obama at: +1. That is an enormous difference.

And then there is the justifiable question as to whether his "base" is staying numerically as it was, or if his base is shrinking, numerically speaking. It's one thing if you are getting 84% approval from your base and your base is, say, 32% of the electorate. It's something entirely different if you are getting 84% approval from your base and your base is only 23% of the electorate. That changes the statistics drastically. My point is, as hard as it may be to believe, this -18.9 for the President may actually be an inflated statistic. But when you are closing in on -20 approval, anything more than that is nothing more than icing on the cake, anyway.

There is no doubt about it: 7 months (200 days) into his young presidency, Donald Trump has the worst approval numbers of any president in polling history, with no end in sight as far as this pattern is concerned.

-Stat

 

Trump is more popular than congress or the liberal news media

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html

• Polls
• Election 2016
• Video
• Trump Job Approval | Direction of Country | Approval of Health Care Law
  
  Economist/YouGov 7/31 - 8/1 1329 RV 9 68 -59
  Reuters/Ipsos 7/28 - 8/1 3130 A 22 67 -45
  Quinnipiac 7/27 - 8/1 1125 RV 10 84 -74
  Monmouth 7/13 - 7/16 713 RV 18 72 -54
  PPP (D) 7/14 - 7/17 836 RV 11 75 -64
  Gallup 7/5 - 7/9 1021 A 20 74 -54
  All Congressional Job Approval Polling Data
  
  
  RCP POLL AVERAGE
  Congressional Job Approval
  15.0
  Approve
  73.3
  Disapprove

 

So was Obama.
So was Bush until his 8th year.

Your point?

 

My point is that bush and obama were swamp creatures along with congress and trump was elected to drain the swamp

He may only have the support of the 62 million voters who elected him but that is more than the swamp enjoys

 

Oh, ok.....

LOL!!!

Oh, almost 66 million voters voted for Clinton, btw.

 

62 million is the number trump needed to win the election and assume the office of president

Which is a more signifient number than the illegal aliesn who voted for clinton

 

Trumps hardcore support base seems to have fallen to about 25% and will go further into the pit when Meuller steps onto the stage. For those who maintain their devotion and ignore what is happening, be ready for ridicule as you will deserve it.

 

You are engaging in wishful thinking that borders on delusion

Mueller may destroy the republican party by rupturing the bond between the elected representatives and the base voters but they will stick with trump as long as he works for them

 

Democrats love polls. It allows them to believe they are winning.

 

What deserves "ridicule" are all the Democrats who incessantly sneered about how Hilary Clinton was going to win by a landslide.

 

As accurate as this blast from the past.

A new poll showing Hillary Clinton up 10 points gives insight into why Donald Trump’s campaign is faltering

August 25, 2016

 

Hopefully you folks someday realize that HillBill actually LOST the election and spend a few moments reflecting and focusing on your man crush since that is the topic.

 

Please look at the DATE for that poll.

Discernment is your friend.

And BTW, the 2016 election polls are not the subject of the OP.

You do realize that, right?

 

Correct.

This thread is about the data for the approval/disapproval ratings for the 45th POTUS.
What a shame that some people cannot concentrate on the OP.

 

True.

The FACT of the matter is THIS:

The RW can't believe that Trump actually won.

So, the RW continues to act like LOSERS (by deflecting to "But Clinton, But Obama, Etc.").

Back to On Topic:

It is inevitable (and EXPECTED) that Trump's "approval" ratings are headed downward into the abyss.

 

As long as you realize you're quoting the same sources that were so wrong in 2016. What makes you think theyre right now?

 

Well, actually, the pollsters in the RCP aggregate to whom you are referring are pollsters who did national polling, and indeed, in national polling, the average before election night 2016 was: Clinton +2.5. And she WON in the NPV by +2.1. So, I hate to ruin your party, but the national (NPV) polling in 2016 was right.

Perhaps you are referring to state polling but in an adult conversation we expect a person to be smart enough to know the difference between national polling and state polling. And in the state polling, the polling aggregate was off in only three states: MI, WI and PA. In Fl, it showed a statistical tie: Trump +0.5, and he won FL on election night with +1. The polling aggregate showed Trump ahead in NC, OH and IA right before election night, and he won those three states. So, in 47 of 50 states, the polling aggregate was exactly right. The aggregate is usually slightly off in one or two states (close states) in presidential elections. In 2012, the FL aggregate had Romney ahead. Obama won. So, next time I encourage you to actually know your facts. Good luck to you.

 

Whatever makes you feel better is what you need to follow. Just remember, polls are prone to misinterpretation, especially by folks who like what they appear to say.

DOUBLE DIGITS: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 10 points in new Fox News poll

• Aug. 3, 2016, 6:36 PM

 

There is no 'Blotus'....

 

Ok, your last chance before I put you on iggy.

Look at the DATE of that poll.

Now, look at that.

That was not even remotely close in terms of time-frame to the election. And in August, she was indeed soaring over him.

Please, stop the stupidity.

Thanks.

 

lets see the questions ,how where they phrased,what was the age group,where was this poll taken,2 out of 28 polls got the 2016 election right,just keep citing polls .