Trump disbanded another Obama committee on climate change

So that paper (yes, I read it...all of it) does not claim that the last interglacial (LIG) was 8.5C warmer than today. What they claim is that the LIG was the result of 6-11C (with a median of 8.5C) of warming. That's the not same thing as saying the LIG was 8.5C warmer than today. And their reconstruction is pretty much in line with their peers so this paper does not present anything new. Anyway, they then go on to say that the LIG was about 5.2C warmer than the preindustrial period. Again, the preindustrial period is not the same thing as today. And again, this is in line with most other reconstruction which happen to use more of the GISP2 sites than this specific paper did. Furthermore, and this important, this is for Greenland only. This is not a reconstruction of the global mean temperature or even the NH temperature.

And speaking of GISP2 that is the source of the used in this paper so I assume you trust it. When we add in the amount of warming in Greenland from the preindustrial period to present (1850 to 2017) which is about 3C (and that's being conservative) you'll see that the LIG was only about 2C warmer than today. And the LIG was the warmest interglacial in about a million years. At our current rate of warming in Greenland which is about 2x the global average (and that's being conservative) we will surpass the LIG in about 50 years which will make the modern era warmer than it has ever been in a million years.

Note that the paper you cited is in full agreement with the following graph.



So let me answer the questions now...

The last time it was 8.5C warmer than today was more than 10 million years ago.

The last time we experienced 0.20C/decade of global warming was likely around -6000 BC (8000 years ago). Note that it is believed that sea level rose by 5m during this period.

Yep. And it's proof that Earth's climate system can experience sudden warming events and that these warming events can lead to hothouse Earth conditions.

 

I'm thinking every post in this thread could be sarcasm.
Each post reads either way.

 

Global temps continue to drop.

"This was the coolest September in the last 10 years in the global average."

 

So that's it. The steadily increasing global mean surface temperature trend we've observed over the last 6 decades has finally come to an end. Is this what you are committing to?

 

Why make **** up?

 

I'm not sure what this means. In regards to the question of whether you think the secular warming trend has finally ceased is this a YES or a NO?

 

Why make stupid predictions at all?

If things get too hot for you, buy air con.
If they are too cold, get a heater or an extra jumper.

Nothing complicated about any of it.

 

Making predictions is a fundamental tenant of science.

 

Nostradamus. That well known scientist.

Empirical measurement is the fundamental tenant of science.
Making stuff up is not.

And that's why climate change is a soft subject.
It;s not science. It's just some bullshifters, talking arse.

All their predictions turned out to be wildly incorrect.
Which empirically shows you how good their science was.

This is a done subject mate.
Welcome to the 21st century.

 

Show me a prediction that is widely accepted by the consensus and which you feel is egregiously wrong. Show me how 100% of their predictions are wrong. Heck, I'll even make it easy on you. Show me how just 25% of their predictions are wrong.

 

You should read the news sometimes.

US weekly jobless claims drop to a near 49-year low

• The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to a near 49-year low last week.
• The data pointed to sustained labor market strength, which should continue to underpin economic growth.
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended Sept. 29, the Labor Department said on Thursday

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/us-weekly-jobless-claims-sept-29-2018.html

 

And theirs have been so wrong so often. No body of study has been wrong as often as science.

 

So what are you saying? The entirety of science is all a big scam and a hoax?

 

I'm not looking for consensus acceptance.
I'm looking for scientific accuracy.

I don't need you and your friends to translate the results for me and neither does anyone else.
Each and every single one of us is qualified. No high priests required to explain the word of god to us all.
Sorry.


Now as it happens I can show some predictions that are widely accepted.
For example. The sum of the internal angles of a triangle will equal 180 degree's.

So we can make accurate predictions based on good science.
We can. But you can't.
And the reason for this is simple, we are using good science and you are not.

And this has been going on long enough now for all your predictions to have manifestly not occured.

In the past you could say "I am an expert. It will happen, wait and see".
But we did wait, we have seen, and you aren't an expert.

You have discredited yourselves. Frankly it looked stupid, sounded stupid and with the best will in the world, proved to be stupid.
And that's the consensus I am a part of.

 

That is the temperature range for 7 out of the last 8 Inter-Glacial Periods.

The coldest Inter-Glacial Period was 7.8°F warmer than the present generally reported average global temperature of 58.4°F.

The previous Inter-Glacial Period was the warmest ever at 15.3°F warmer than present. The Greenland Ice Sheet was destroyed. The ice sheet melted away to become the size of a glacier, and then continued melting until it was just a very large berm of snow and ice that snaked along the western side of the mountain range on the east coast of Greenland.

Inter-Glacial Periods typically last 12,000 to 26,000 years. One of the 8 Inter-Glacial Periods ended abruptly after only 8,000 years for reasons scientists do not understand and cannot explain.

The fact that you would even ask such a question serves to highlight your extreme ignorance on the matter.

Rapid temperature changes over mere years or decades can happen.

Rapid temperature changes over mere years or decades do happen.

Rapid temperature changes over mere years or decades have happened.

In the last 100,000 years, there were 24 extreme temperature changes that happened over years or decades.

The Utah State Geological Survey can tell you all about it:

One of the more recent intriguing findings is the remarkable speed of these changes. Within the incredibly short time span (by geologic standards) of only a few decades or even a few years, global temperatures have fluctuated by as much as 15°F (8°C) or more.

For example, as Earth was emerging out of the last glacial cycle, the warming trend was interrupted 12,800 years ago when temperatures dropped dramatically in only several decades. A mere 1,300 years later, temperatures locally spiked as much as 20°F (11°C) within just several years. Sudden changes like this occurred at least 24 times during the past 100,000 years. In a relative sense, we are in a time of unusually stable temperatures today—how long will it last?

[emphasis mine]

http://geology.utah.gov/map-pub/sur.../ice-ages-what-are-they-and-what-causes-them/

If you don't like that government source, and you probably won't since it contradicts your entire belief system, you can refer to this government source:

Climate shifts up to half as large as the entire difference between ice age and modern conditions occurred over hemispheric or broader regions in mere years to decades.

[emphasis mine]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC34297/

So rapid extreme temperature changes are the norm, not the exception.

There is nothing unusual, abnormal or unprecedented about the current change in temperatures, and any claim to the contrary contradicts both documented science and history.

This Inter-Glacial Period could easily last another 5,000 to 12,000 years and there's nothing abnormal or unusual about that, and average global temperatures will probably fall in the range 7.8°F to 15.3°F warmer and there's nothing abnormal or unusual about that, either.

 

Point me to the dataset that shows the last time it was 15.3F warmer than today. Yes, it was 15.3F warmer than today in the past. My question was...why did it last happen?

Yes. I know. Now answer the question. When was the last time the global mean temperature warming rate met or exceeded 0.2C/decade over multiple decades during an interglacial period?

 

I'll ask again. What prediction that has wide acceptance from the scientific consensus which you feel is egregiously wrong.

Then show me one of these denier climate predictions that ended up being right.

 

It's called EPICA Dome C.

It happened during this Inter-Glacial Period.

Here are two government sources:

Climate shifts up to half as large as the entire difference between ice age and modern conditions occurred over hemispheric or broader regions in mere years to decades.

[emphasis mine]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC34297/

One of the more recent intriguing findings is the remarkable speed of these changes. Within the incredibly short time span (by geologic standards) of only a few decades or even a few years, global temperatures have fluctuated by as much as 15°F (8°C) or more.

For example, as Earth was emerging out of the last glacial cycle, the warming trend was interrupted 12,800 years ago when temperatures dropped dramatically in only several decades. A mere 1,300 years later, temperatures locally spiked as much as 20°F (11°C) within just several years. Sudden changes like this occurred at least 24 times during the past 100,000 years. In a relative sense, we are in a time of unusually stable temperatures today—how long will it last?

[emphasis mine]

http://geology.utah.gov/map-pub/sur.../ice-ages-what-are-they-and-what-causes-them/

 

EPICA Dome C actually doesn't have a record of it being 8C warmer than today at least over the last 1 million years. None of the ice core data for the glacial/interglacial era of the last 1 million years shows this. Though the last interglacial from 125,000 years ago got close even if it was only for a few years at most. You have to go back more than 1 million years to find definitive evidence of it being at least 8C warmer than today on a global scale.

Yes. I'm aware of this. That's actually common knowledge. The warming can be very aggressive coming out of glacial eras. You have to go back to the Younger-Dryas warming event to find a case when the warming has occurred a similar rate as today. That was more than 10,000 years ago. The ice core data is highly suggestive that a 0.2C/decade global rate or (0.4C/decade) polar rate has not occurred during this interglacial period.

The point here is this. Earth has experience rapid warming rates before. The paleoclimate record is convincing in that regard. That's how we know that the climate can be very sensitive to warming given the right nudge especially when it's already started at a low point. What the paleoclimate record also tells us is that the warming rate that is occurring today is likely unprecedented during the holocene which is when modern city-state civilizations began to appear. So we know that rapid warming can and has happened in the past and that civilized humans have not had to adapt to it yet.

Let me repeat. We know with a high confidence that the Earth can warm quickly given the right nudge. That's an argument that even you are defending here. So are why should any of us all of sudden pretend like it's not going to happen today especially considering that we've already identified a positive radiative forcing factor? Doesn't it seem foolish to dismiss that out of hand and pretend like it isn't happening?