Trump is favorite to win in 2020...

I hope no Democrat is delusional about our chances to win in 2020. Trump is hands down the favorite.

Sure... he's lost quite a bit of the voters that elected him in 2016. His poor showing with the Hispanic vote is reaching single digits. Women vote is following suit. He's created a financial mess in the rust-belt among voters that supported him. And he'll probably have a much harder time than last time finding "his black voter". Young voters? Forget it! His only strength are white Christian males over 60. And he has a commending approval rating in the Republican Party, but he attained this by executing the worst strategy possible: reducing the size of the GOP.....

If you look at this and you are tempted to consider some sort of reverse Reagan-Mondale electoral year a possibility... you would be soooo wrong!

Trump is still the favorite! By far!

Everything "seems" to favor democrats. But they depend on turn out. And if voters don't turn up in huge numbers, they are giving him four more years in power.

He has three elements in his favor that makes beating him a very difficult task.

1- Collusion: With Russia, sure. But now he has the power to enlist other countries. Giuliani is out right now, not only "colluding" (which is not a legal term), but actually conspiring with other countries. He's been working on Ukraine for quite some time now.

2- Voter manipulation: Voter suppression, Gerrymandering, voter intimidation.... If you think White Supremacists are going to be watching the elections from home, you're dead wrong. They'll be at the polling places... posing as.... who-knows-what. Intimidating minority voters. And all his lackeys at state level are in place and strategically located: Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio....

3- No scruples: Trump will do everything to stay in power. Remember: he'll be doing jail time if he doesn't win. And a President has quite a bit of power. And he will use it all. Expect anything for an October surprise. It won't matter to him if it's damaging to the country, or if it hurts people.... if he thinks it helps him... he'll do it!

So it will be an uphill battle Democrats will need a voter-manipulaton proof/collusion proof/cheat proof majority. Not even doubling or tripling Hillary's 2 million+ majority will ensure a Trump defeat Let nobody convince you that it's going to be easy.

 

And my opinion and belief is that every day there are registered republicans becoming registered independents because of trump. Every day there are registered republicans who are embarrassed to admit they are republicans because of trump. Every day another group of people are being insulted by trump. All he has left is his base which means he's in for a beating.

 

I have observed enough of your posts to know that you created this thread so that when/if Trump wins, you will repost this so that you can say "see I already knew". You will then go on to push those nonsensical "three elements" and pretend like it is because of those 3 elements and you knew all along that those three elements would illegitimately propel him to victory. If he were to lose you will leave this thread to the ash heap of history. You did the essentially the same thing with Russia collusion.

Yes there is a very good chance that Trump will win re-election. No, it will NOT be because of your three elements. Just because you acknowledge that he is likely to win does NOT mean that your explanation of that win is anything other than unabashed nonsense.

Of course the existence of this response likely throws a monkey wrench into your plan.

 

Stated like someone who doesn't understand sarcasm.

If you think Trump has a good chance of winning, what are your reasons?

 

I agree. But he does have the Russians on his side. And tons and tons of voter suppression tools. And not a conscience in sight that would prevent him from using them. So let's not kid ourselves. He's still the favorite and it's going to be a tough fight.

 

We are well over a year out from the next election which is a lifetime in politics, so I am not going to bother hijacking this thread to go off on that tangent because things are always changing. The simplest and most irrefutable reason why at this point he is likely to win is that in the modern era the overwhelming majority of presidents DO win re-election. There is an enormous premium on being the incumbent. The party out of power tears itself apart and spends their campaign funds in brutal primaries, while the incumbent sits back and amasses a fortune in campaign donations that they don't have to spend until the general election.

I hate to burst your condescending bubble, but the OP contains not one shred of sarcasm. He is NOT going to back you up on your assertion that it is sarcasm, because he is not being sarcastic. For purposes of addressing your reply, that is all that is relevant.

 

Trump is favored.....that's right sucka!!!

 

Not really, but that's not a bad idea. I posted something similar before the 2016 elections on another forum. That forum shut down, and I can't access it anymore.

I will tag it accordingly, following your suggestion.

If we win I will point to this thread as an example of how Democrats won against all odds. If Democrats win it cannot be by a small margin.

You seem a bit paranoid. If I refer anybody to this thread after the elections, I doubt anybody is going to read your response. But I am dead serious: I do believe that Trump has the upper hand for the reasons I explained. And my "plan" is nothing like what you're claiming. My plan is simply what I stated: to alert Democrats that, if we are to unseat Trump, we're going to have to work hard. Very hard. And we can't just sit back and say "nobody's going to vote for this idiot for President anyway" like many did in 2016.

 

My work is done here. I know what you are doing, and my response will either stop it, or at minimum give me ammunition with which to reply if you do follow through with it. I saw how you dislocated your shoulder from patting yourself on the back with your pre-emptive Russia Collusion thread, and then tried using that as validation of your preposterous explanations. I figured id point it out before you did it again.

 

The wildcard here is the economy. A high % of The Following will vote for for Individual 1 no matter what. We know that. I could list 25 things that would have ended the political career of anyone but a master conman though we all know what they are.
But if the former reality TV star keeps escalating the trade war and in so doing brings on a recession it means the one thing the mindlessly devoted keep coming back to as a reason to support the Orange Buffoon....the economy........goes away.
Yes, Repubs have gerrymandered the heck out of of districts across the country. Yes, they have orchestrated a massive voter suppression campaign. And yes, goodness knows what a desperate man trying to stay out of prison will do to stay in power.

But I sense the act is wearing thin with the undecideds. I think they've grown tired of his clownish buffoonery. As for motivating the Dem base............the daily idiocy and chaos of this admin and the number of groups he has alienated should be enough. I hope.

https://bluevirginia.us/2019/08/vid...-bitecofer-argues-that-its-all-about-the-base

 

The common voter doesn't elect the president or did you not know that?

 

Dont be fooled by the message Conservatives, dont be comfortably complacent by this ploy, GET OUT AND VOTE. Every vote counts.

This is a common ploy to lull you into staying home, DONT fall for it, VOTE!

 

Where do you get your information from?

Why Trump’s Approval Ratings Are Up Among Minorities...
https://spectator.org/why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-up-among-minorities/

 

How would that stop me from patting myself on the back? I am predicting it.

 

The economy is a big part. But I'm not sure it's a deciding factor. Again: I'm afraid that Democrats could become complacent.

And, of course, whoever the nominee is, is not going to be "perfect". And Trump will enhance whatever imperfection that candidate has out of proportion. And I don't trust Democrats (and I trust independents even less) to see through the nonsense that will be coming. Not that they would vote for Trump but, again.... it's all about turnout.

 

I guess we'll have to get out our white supremacist costumes, and intimidate as many minority voters as possible at the polling places. It's what Golem expects of us.

 

It's going to come down to who creates the better ads, who makes fewer mistakes, and who does better in the debates. It's a coin flip (50-50).

Of course, a major event (depression, terrorism, war) could upset the apple cart and then all of the advance political planning in the world will be useless.

 

Well not single digits ...yet. But getting there. 22% according to the latest Gallup Poll

 

I kind of took this tongue in cheek. As a numbers guy, the numbers state Trump isn't the favorite. At least now with a very long time to go before Nov 2020. 2020 is an election for the Democrats to lose. Trump can't win it, but the Democrats sure could lose it. 2020 boils down to in my opinion as to whom the Democrats nominate. With the right candidate, the Democrats win in a landslide. With the wrong candidate, another 2016 certainly is possible.

I don't think turnout will be a problem with the Democrats, Trump provides the incentive to get out and vote just as he did in 2018. History shows that on average 90% of Republicans and democrats vote for their party's candidate regardless of whom it is. It's independents that usually decide national elections.

Knowing that, I follow independents without giving those who affiliate with the two major parties much thought. The trend over the several months on the generic presidential vote, asked whom would you vote for, the Democratic candidate or Trump. It been running or averaging 30% of independents voting for the Democrat, 30% for Trump, 25% stating it depends with the rest saying they would not vote.

It's that "it depends" column that grabs my attention. My take on it is that their vote depends on whom the Democrats nominate. They could vote for Trump, they could vote Democratic or they could vote third party once again as 12% of independents did in 2016. My perspective on the numbers, if the Democrats nominate a candidate attractive to independents, they win in a landslide. If not, Trump could squeak by and gain a second term. The ball is in the democrats court, it's what they with that ball or whom they hand it too that will determine the 2020 outcome. My two cents anyway.

 

But we are not black panthers, a recent enough tactic.

 

It appears the Chinese are on the democrats side and they have all the leverage power and money.

 

Lets set up excuses for losing again...Russia Russia Russia.

Cant be that it will be because the 'white man bad, Christians bad, heterosexuality is bigoted and bad' Open borders good, civilian disarmament good, "free" health care for upwards of 30 million illegals good, morality of our fathers bad, immorality good, gender spectrum garbage....No, it must be those damn Russians...

 

Democrats have one disadvantage: they have scruples and respect to the laws of this country. They know that Democrats would not vote for a candidate that relies on illegal help. Trump supporters are the only ones who don't mind dishonesty and disloyalty to this country. So even if it were true that the Chinese were on the Democrats' side, that would do them no good.

 

Dear lord, re-read what you just wrote. Never mind, you are just kidding aren't you?

 

At least I agree with that. The Dems are not brass knuckle fighters. They must become that to win.