Trump Says he wants a "really strong", rich" Iran and not after "regime change"

If only one could trust Trump's comments. Or trust that he would be able to actually carry out negotiations with Iran on such basis and not be derailed in such talks by the usual suspects.

While Trump imagines that if he gets a deal that he can say guarantees Iran will not have nuclear weapons, and which ends Iran's support for anti-Israeli groups, then he can declare victory, the problem he faces is that (besides the fact that ending support for anti-Israeli groups might be a bridge too far for some in Iran), even his friends in Israel won't be satisfied with that. Or I don't think they will be.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0826/1070892-iranian-nuclear-crisis-to-dominate-todays-g7-summit/
Trump says he does not want regime change in Iran

 

I should add that, despite my general opposition to any concessions by Iran in the face of the US "maximum pressure" campaign, I would not mind it if Iran found a way to speak to Trump one-on-one, without his usual handlers getting in the way of possible ways to solve the problems between Iran and the US. And without any foreign intermediaries -- whether the French or otherwise. That would be difficult to pull off, but that is the only way I see anything good even remotely possible from talking to the US.

 

Problem with Trump is he has one idea at breakfast another at lunch and then another at tea time.

This is interesting

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/2...e-saudi-message-to-us-to-stop-strike-on-iran/

It is easier to keep Iran 'under siege'.

 

No one believes anything the President says, wait a few minutes, he will say something else. The man is the laughing stock of the world.

 

I agree with you and, incidentally, had already read the report you cited which was quite interesting for me too. Whatever is going on behind the scenes, what has been clear is that both the Saudis and the UAE have been very quiet lately and, indeed, the UAE was even about to jump ship. I think they have been kept from doing so, but it is clear they are still very nervous.

On Trump, I think everyone (except his devoted band of cult-like followers) has figured him out by now. But you have to admit that someone who can be played like a fool by the N.Korean leader has the same potential if we can find a way to negotiate with him directly. But, of course, it may all prove pointless anyway: the guy can change his tune the minute he comes under fire from the usual suspects and nothing substantial may come of it. Unlike N.Korea, there are too many vested interests when it comes to Iran, especially the Israelis, to ultimately allow Trump to get too far off script.

But in Iran, there is clearly a momentum being built to accept Trump's repeated invitations to talk to him. Iran's Supreme Leader bluntly pushed back on this when the Japanese prime minister visited Iran a couple of months ago with a message from Trump, and has basically ruled out any negotiations with the US. But for those who think the title "Supreme Leader" means that everything he says and wants is done by the book in Iran, I should mention that there was a stormy session of the Iranian parliament broadcast live on television, where Iran's president Rohani was there to answer questions about Zarif's meetings with the French on the sidelines of the G-7 meeting. Rohani, implicitly if not explicitly, made it clear that he wasn't going to follow the Supreme Leader's directive on no contacts or negotiations with the US if his administration felt those negotiations would be beneficial for Iran. His tone was strident and the line he used was rather effective. He basically said there wasn't anyone who would not negotiate with if negotiating with him would be in the interests of Iran and helps advance the welfare of its people! Of course, that begs the real question: does negotiating with the US under these circumstances advance Iran's interests?

My general view is that there is no point in making any concessions to the US (not even those that the Rohani administration has been floating around), but holding talks with Trump wouldn't hurt. Who knows, maybe at the end of a meeting with Trump, we can see a communique like the one with N.Korea which he waived as a major victory: "Iran agreed that it will not develop nuclear weapons and to continue discussions with the United States on reducing the threat of proliferation of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them in the region. The United States agreed to suspend sanctions it has imposed since its withdrawal from the JCPOA pending negotiations with Iran on achieving this objective, while Iran agreed that it will refrain from taking any military action against any member of the United Nations except in self-defense." I will take a communique such as this over the JCPOA any day!

 

For better or worse, there is some likelihood that Iran will meet to discuss things with Trump.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...r-iran-talks-says-donald-trump-hassan-rouhani
Macron says Trump-Rouhani talks could happen within weeks

 

I think Iran should talk to Trump, they know what he wants now let's find out what he's prepared to pay/give to make it happen...

 

Iran, is one of the few nations that should be a natural ally of the US.
The US has had to work very hard for almost a century make Iran an enemy.

It is probably a bit late to change that reality, and I doubt that Iranian leaders are capable of softening their position on the destruction of Israel.

 

Not really, but for now, we assume he wants what he has said recently: a very strong, rich, Iran. That he wants Iran not to have nuclear weapons. And that he likes to talk to Iran about missiles. In return, he is willing to have the French open a "letter of credit" for Iran, backed by Iranian oil exports, to conduct trade, so we can start talks. I think we can talk with him on this basis, although obviously their will be a lack of trust. Ultimately, in Iran at least (even if not in America), there is the realization that Trump himself doesn't always know what he wants because he sometimes reads off the script he is given.

Based on what Trump has said, and the behind the scenes moves by the French, yes, Rouhani should probably meet and talk with him. But what we will probably end up with in the best scenario will be a "communique" which will essentially say that "Iran agreed not to develop nuclear weapons while the United States and Iran agreed to explore ways to reduce the proliferation of nuclear weapons as well as the means to deliver them in the region. The two countries agreed to hold talks to achieve these objectives, in order to help bring peace, stability and greater development among the countries in the region, while paving the way for the removal of all foreign forces from their territories.

In return, while talks are underway, the United States will not oppose efforts by the French to establish a mechanism to allow a certain degree of trade and commerce with Iran.

 

Well, despite what I had said, it seems that Rouhani has been reigned in and told not to venture too much off script either.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-rouhani-steps-back-from-possible-trump-talks
Iran president steps back from possible Trump talks
Hassan Rouhani says US must first lift sanctions before summit can take place

 

Iran is an Islamic theocracy. Topple Iran and you're likely to get another Islamic theocracy / Islamic terrorist militants, such as has been demonstrated in countless other parts of the Middle East when their dictatorships were toppled or came close to being toppled.

The Middle East has a much deeper seated problem than just their governments.

 

For once, we are in total agreement.

 

You're dreaming.. Trump doesn't LISTEN to anyone. At the end of any meeting Trump has no clue what the other guy said.

 

Seven century script will not get you very far in the 21th century.