This thread will be dedicated to election ODDS forecasts. I will try to keep it updated with the odds. The main point of the thread will be the ODDS, not the POLLS. Since the odds are based in the polls, feel free to debate either issue but let's stay focused on the subject of the thread. The above poll will be open until the election and you are allowed to change your vote.
So the RCP average of polls shows the gap closing after the convention but 538 odds go the opposite way. Does anyone believe this crap?
RPC added a new result from YouGov showing Biden ahead by 11 points if you can believe that. I live in Occupied California where nobody puts a Trump yard sign up or bumper sticker on their car because they know the consequences. Your home or car will be vandalized and you may be doxxed or lose your job. But in this heavily democratic leaning area, I did see my second Biden/Harris yard sign. This time 4 years ago, you would have seen hundreds of Crooked Hillary signs. In spite of these great polls, I think it's the democrats who should be worried.
RCP isn't really that good. I mean supposedly all these polls are operating under the same random sampling yet look at how different their results are. That is a statistical impossibility meaning that right off the bat we know that the majority of polls are not completely random which throws their whole average out the window. And 538 is considered a joke now.
Biden at +8 (the average of the polls) has a 99+% chance of winning. This isn't close, despite anyone's fantasies. On the bright side, the Republicans can't fix their problem if they don't admit they have one. Peer pressure prevents them from admitting they have a problem. The cult orders them all to chant that Trump is really winning, and they don't dare disobey. Since they can't admit they have a problem, they can't fix it, so Biden coasts to an easy win. And what can the Trump campaign do in the last 8 weeks to turn it around? It's hard to think of anything. Trump can't run on his record, being it's so awful. All of his lies about Biden have gained no traction. Barr plans to release a faked report about Hunter Biden in October, but everyone already assumes that's a big lie. After all, it's what Trump was impeached for, and the Trump team admitted Trump was guilty of those charges. Highlighting again the crimes that Trump was impeached for is not a winning strategy. That leaves cheating as the only viable path for a Trump win. The Republicans will pull out all the stops, but this time the margin is just too big for Republicans to overcome with cheating.
Aw Crap! I guess its over now, might as well change my vote to Biden, and since I will vote democrat how many times can I vote again?
Sorry, I've been neglecting to update this thread. Let's have a look see and find out the odds have changed. Wow. Biden's odds have increased. I think we should be shaking in our boots. Wanna see something else that is funny? This which can be found on the same page, which BTW, here is the link I forgot to provide it earlier: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ If you go into the source data, which there is a link to on their page they have one new poll that shows Biden beating Trump by 15%, 55% to 40%. They haven't added Rasmussen yet, which shows the race is only at 2% within the margin of error, Biden 48% and Trump at 46%. How is it one poll from the same exact time frame be 13% off? Hmm. Is there really a 13% margin of error, or are the polls just grossly inaccurate?
Okay, here ya are, the RCP average of polls showing Hidin' Biden with a lead of 7.5% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/National.html
Man, this is a good example of why I should keep a close eye on this. Trump slipped down one point in the odds overnight apparently. Oh well, I guess he can give up now. No need to go to those rallies with tens of thousands of people. You Trump supporters can stay home and put you boats back in storage.
Trumpsters will tell you that polls are always wrong so I would recommend that they take all their savings and bet it all on Trump to win or better still send it off to a cash strapped campaign.
That sounds like good advice. I would reccomend call options that expire Nov 6th. I wish I had thought of that in 2016. Would have made a fortune!
after seeing what happened to Floyd in a democrat controlled state with democrat senators a democrat governor democrat mayor democrat appointed police chief I’ll never vote for democrats again
Well the odds haven't changed since my last update but the RCP average did by .5% point. Biden went from a 7.5% lead to a 7% lead. Maybe people don't want to hear about climate change when their cities are burning, their forests are burning, their homes are burning, their businesses are burning, they're not allowed to work or go to school because of a state government shut down, and Antifa rioters and BLM supporters are murdering cops and Trump supporters. But that's just me I guess.
And here is RCP average of polls. Biden's lead is down .4% to 6.6%. I heard one or two polls show Trump in the lead but I guess that's why RCP refuses to post them in their average of polls.
Can you make that vote that Trump wins in a landslide in Vegas, it would pay about 100 to 1 I would put a thousand down on that.
Current Odds in Each of the 50 States: https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020