Trump vs Biden Election 2020 Odds

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by PatriotNews, Sep 2, 2020.

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If the election were held today, who would you vote for?

Poll closed Dec 2, 2020.
  1. President Trump

    33 vote(s)
    58.9%
  2. Joe Biden

    19 vote(s)
    33.9%
  3. other

    1 vote(s)
    1.8%
  4. undecided

    3 vote(s)
    5.4%
  1. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    This thread will be dedicated to election ODDS forecasts. I will try to keep it updated with the odds. The main point of the thread will be the ODDS, not the POLLS. Since the odds are based in the polls, feel free to debate either issue but let's stay focused on the subject of the thread.

    Screenshot_20200902-074519_Chrome.jpg

    The above poll will be open until the election and you are allowed to change your vote.
     
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  2. StarFox

    StarFox Banned

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    Well there you go, a poll that currently has Trump with a 89% chance of winning.
     
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  3. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    So the RCP average of polls shows the gap closing after the convention but 538 odds go the opposite way. Does anyone believe this crap?
    Screenshot_20200903-132913_Chrome.jpg
     
  4. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    No. I didn't believe it last time. Don't believe it this time.
     
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  5. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    RPC added a new result from YouGov showing Biden ahead by 11 points if you can believe that.

    Screenshot_20200904-050026_Chrome.jpg
    I live in Occupied California where nobody puts a Trump yard sign up or bumper sticker on their car because they know the consequences. Your home or car will be vandalized and you may be doxxed or lose your job.

    But in this heavily democratic leaning area, I did see my second Biden/Harris yard sign. This time 4 years ago, you would have seen hundreds of Crooked Hillary signs. In spite of these great polls, I think it's the democrats who should be worried.
     
  6. Spooky

    Spooky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    RCP isn't really that good.

    I mean supposedly all these polls are operating under the same random sampling yet look at how different their results are.

    That is a statistical impossibility meaning that right off the bat we know that the majority of polls are not completely random which throws their whole average out the window.

    And 538 is considered a joke now.
     
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  7. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Biden at +8 (the average of the polls) has a 99+% chance of winning. This isn't close, despite anyone's fantasies.

    On the bright side, the Republicans can't fix their problem if they don't admit they have one. Peer pressure prevents them from admitting they have a problem. The cult orders them all to chant that Trump is really winning, and they don't dare disobey. Since they can't admit they have a problem, they can't fix it, so Biden coasts to an easy win.

    And what can the Trump campaign do in the last 8 weeks to turn it around? It's hard to think of anything. Trump can't run on his record, being it's so awful. All of his lies about Biden have gained no traction. Barr plans to release a faked report about Hunter Biden in October, but everyone already assumes that's a big lie. After all, it's what Trump was impeached for, and the Trump team admitted Trump was guilty of those charges. Highlighting again the crimes that Trump was impeached for is not a winning strategy.

    That leaves cheating as the only viable path for a Trump win. The Republicans will pull out all the stops, but this time the margin is just too big for Republicans to overcome with cheating.
     
  8. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    You are also forgetting we have Vladimir Putin on our side to help rig the election for Trump.
     
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  9. StarFox

    StarFox Banned

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    Aw Crap! I guess its over now, might as well change my vote to Biden, and since I will vote democrat how many times can I vote again?
     
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  10. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, I've been neglecting to update this thread. Let's have a look see and find out the odds have changed.

    Screenshot_20200910-171832.jpg

    Wow. Biden's odds have increased. I think we should be shaking in our boots. Wanna see something else that is funny? This which can be found on the same page, which BTW, here is the link I forgot to provide it earlier: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
    Screenshot_20200910-172021.jpg

    If you go into the source data, which there is a link to on their page they have one new poll that shows Biden beating Trump by 15%, 55% to 40%.

    They haven't added Rasmussen yet, which shows the race is only at 2% within the margin of error, Biden 48% and Trump at 46%.

    How is it one poll from the same exact time frame be 13% off? Hmm. Is there really a 13% margin of error, or are the polls just grossly inaccurate?

     
  11. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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  12. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Man, this is a good example of why I should keep a close eye on this. Trump slipped down one point in the odds overnight apparently. Oh well, I guess he can give up now. No need to go to those rallies with tens of thousands of people. You Trump supporters can stay home and put you boats back in storage.

    Screenshot_20200911-164121_Chrome.jpg
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2020
  13. Gentle- Giant

    Gentle- Giant Well-Known Member

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    Trumpsters will tell you that polls are always wrong so I would recommend that they take all their savings and bet it all on Trump to win or better still send it off to a cash strapped campaign.
     
  14. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    That sounds like good advice. I would reccomend call options that expire Nov 6th. I wish I had thought of that in 2016. Would have made a fortune!
     
  15. NightOwl

    NightOwl Banned

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    Wouldnt win anything because the betting odds are now about 50/50.
     
  16. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You do realize that winning at 1:1 odds means you turn a profit of what you bet, right?
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2020
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  17. Alzheimers Biden

    Alzheimers Biden Newly Registered

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    after seeing what happened to Floyd in a democrat controlled state with democrat senators a democrat governor democrat mayor democrat appointed police chief


    I’ll never vote for democrats again
     
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  18. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Well the odds haven't changed since my last update but the RCP average did by .5% point. Biden went from a 7.5% lead to a 7% lead. Maybe people don't want to hear about climate change when their cities are burning, their forests are burning, their homes are burning, their businesses are burning, they're not allowed to work or go to school because of a state government shut down, and Antifa rioters and BLM supporters are murdering cops and Trump supporters. But that's just me I guess.

    Screenshot_20200915-071834_Chrome.jpg
     
  19. NightOwl

    NightOwl Banned

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    Uh huh... Double. But that risk is not worth it.
     
  20. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Counterintuitively Sleepy Joe Biden's odd went up today. He is now at 76 to Trump's 23. Screenshot_20200916-075747_Chrome.jpg
     
  21. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    And here is RCP average of polls. Biden's lead is down .4% to 6.6%. I heard one or two polls show Trump in the lead but I guess that's why RCP refuses to post them in their average of polls.

    Screenshot_20200916-080220_Chrome.jpg
     
  22. StarFox

    StarFox Banned

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    Can you make that vote that Trump wins in a landslide in
    Vegas, it would pay about 100 to 1 I would put a thousand down on that.
     
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  23. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    If you don't come up with answers to COVID-19, you're likely to lose.
     
  24. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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  25. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Biden went up another point to 77.
    Screenshot_20200918-065023_Chrome.jpg

    Even as he falls .7% to 5.9% lead in the RCP average of polls: Screenshot_20200918-065215_Chrome.jpg
     
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