Trump vs Biden Election 2020 Odds

He was an un-indicted co-conspirator in the same case that sent Micheal Cohen to prison. As for the rest, we will have to wait until the "can't indict a sitting president" nonsense is over.

When was Hillary Clinton president? Trump spent a full campaign talking about locking her up. He would like nothing more than to lock up Obama and Clinton. The problem is he and his lapdog, AG Barr can't get indictments when no crime was committed. Can you seriously believe he wouldn't have Barr's DOJ indict Obama if he could come up with anything even remotely criminal that would get past a grand jury? He would do it in a second. And you know it. Everyone does. It would be a two-fer: indicting a man he clearly hates, and smearing the Obama/Biden admin as corrupt. The problem is all the criminal conduct was committed by Trump's people which is why so many of them have spent time in jail.

And we should indict more politicians. No one has a more profound duty to respect the law than people who write and execute those laws.

 

wow you really are a "mark"

a perfect parrot of russian propaganda

the things I see and hear are NOT the things I see and hear..

I listened to the tape if trump saying "when you are famous you can grabbem by the pu$$y"

I heard trump say mexicans are rapists and drug dealers...but some might be ok..

when addressing the charlotte tragedy I heard trump say "there are good people on both sides"

how can you tell me I did not hear or see this happen??

I watched trump during the republican debates talk about the size of his dick

I read the decision that trump had to pay $25 million dollars to settle a lawsuit regarding trump university

you tell me these things did not happen??

it was trumps sons that met with russians in trump tower..

mueller report said the only reason junior was not charged with a crime id he was too stupid to know he was breaking the law

how many of trumps associates have been found guilty of crimes??

did he have to pardon roger stone who was found guilty of being a liar??

at least micheal cohen came clean and took his punishment like a man rather than continue a life if crime

if the democrats meddled in the election they did a piss poor job...

trump, on the other hand, used millions of dollars in foreign aid to ukraine to help his election

he was impeached for it and even one republican senator agreed he was guilty as charged

I really feel bad trump has hoodwinked so many people

the guy is a scumbag through and through

 

trump is an indicted crook, biden is an honest man

Article I: Abuse of Power

The Constitution provides that the House of Representatives shall have the sole Power of Impeachment and that the President shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors. In his conduct of the office of President of the United States—and in violation of his constitutional oath faithfully to execute the office of President of the United States and, to the best of his ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States, and in violation of his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed—Donald J. Trump has abused the powers of the Presidency, in that:

Using the powers of his high office, President Trump solicited the interference of a foreign government, Ukraine, in the 2020 United States Presidential election. He did so through a scheme or course of conduct that included soliciting the Government of Ukraine to publicly announce investigations that would benefit his reelection, harm the election prospects of a political opponent, and influence the 2020 United States Presidential election to his advantage. President Trump also sought to pressure the Government of Ukraine to take these steps by conditioning official United States Government acts of significant value to Ukraine on its public announcement of the investigations. President Trump engaged in this scheme or course of conduct for corrupt purposes in pursuit of personal political benefit. In so doing, President Trump used the powers of the Presidency in a manner that compromised the national security of the United States and undermined the integrity of the United States democratic process. He thus ignored and injured the interests of the Nation.

President Trump engaged in this scheme or course of conduct through the following means:

(1)President Trump—acting both directly and through his agents within and outside the United States Government—corruptly solicited the Government of Ukraine to publicly announce investigations into—

(A)a political opponent, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr.; and

(B)a discredited theory promoted by Russia alleging that Ukraine—rather than Russia—interfered in the 2016 United States Presidential election.

(2)With the same corrupt motives, President Trump—acting both directly and through his agents within and outside the United States Government—conditioned two official acts on the public announcements that he had requested—

(A)the release of $391 million of United States taxpayer funds that Congress had appropriated on a bipartisan basis for the purpose of providing vital military and security assistance to Ukraine to oppose Russian aggression and which President Trump had ordered suspended; and

(B)a head of state meeting at the White House, which the President of Ukraine sought to demonstrate continued United States support for the Government of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.

(3)Faced with the public revelation of his actions, President Trump ultimately released the military and security assistance to the Government of Ukraine, but has persisted in openly and corruptly urging and soliciting Ukraine to undertake investigations for his personal political benefit.

These actions were consistent with President Trump’s previous invitations of foreign interference in United States elections.

In all of this, President Trump abused the powers of the Presidency by ignoring and injuring national security and other vital national interests to obtain an improper personal political benefit. He has also betrayed the Nation by abusing his high office to enlist a foreign power in corrupting democratic elections.

Wherefore President Trump, by such conduct, has demonstrated that he will remain a threat to national security and the Constitution if allowed to remain in office, and has acted in a manner grossly incompatible with self-governance and the rule of law. President Trump thus warrants impeachment and trial, removal from office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust, or profit under the United States.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/116/hres755/text

 

The Senate voted no. Trump is exonerated.

 

Neither of those statements is accurate. Trump was acquitted of all charges:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/us/politics/trump-acquitted-impeachment.html

 

This is as far as I got in your post. The people that still propagate the Russian collusion hoax lie are the ones doing Russia's bidding. Bye.

 

So Biden remains at 76 but Trump did improve ack up to 23 from a low of 22.



Let's check the RCP average of polls - so Joe bidens is up to 6.7% down .4% from 7.1%

 

I'm going to start including this graph, electoral college no toss ups according to RCP -
Biden 353
Trump 185

 

Biden still at 77 but Trump down one point again to 22.


With the addition of a couple of more polls including on showing Biden with a double digit lead of 10 points, Biden increases his lead .3% to 7.0%.

 

No. He was Impeached. He just wasn't removed from office by the Senate.

 

Same thing. A no vote is a no to impeachment.

 

Being party line makes it irrelevant.

 

No. It doesn't.
The Representatives were voted in by the American voters.
You're trying to argue that if one party had 95% of the seats in the House, they couldn't impeach a President unless they got votes from the other party.
It doesn't say that in the Constitution. Impeached is impeached.

 

Democrats shamelessly tried to use impeachment to overturn an election they couldn't win. It was a coup attempt just like the Russia Mueller hoax.

 

That's true on some level. But it's an illegitimate Congress, swept in on the tails of a two year leftwing media smear campaign against the President and Republican party. But by the time the Mueller report came out exonerating the President of treason and collusion, it was too late. The damage had already been done with the bias media's election of a Democrat majority. The following impeachment was just a carry over sentiment from the lefts first attempt to frame and remove the President and undo a legal election. They were spurned. The impeachment is meaningless except to the bloodlust of its enjoyers. I hope they enjoy the new Supreme Court as much. Like they say, elections have consequences. But fury is ones own doing...and undoing.

 

How do you not understand how impeachment works? You realize the Dems would not gain power if Trump was removed, right? I highly suggest you learn what coup means. Seriously.

 

They tried to overturn the will of the people to have Trump as president. They wouldn't accept the results of the election.

 

Looks like we have som divergence in the graphs.

The odds improved on point for Biden to 78.


But he dropped .9% in RPC's average of polls to 6.1% lead.

No change in the RCP no toss up map.

 

The RCP no toss up EC map has Biden a little short of the 2008 cycle results. He should fall within ‘08 and ‘12 or 365 and 332 EC votes this cycle.

42 of 50 states should have results fairly early so it’s possible we’ll get a call on the 3rd.

 

Okay, look at the post debate odds, average of polls and no toss up map.

Trump dropped 3 points to 20 and Biden went up 3 to 80. His poll average went up 1.3% from 5.9% to 7.2% Biden's EC count goes up 22 by picking up IOWA and GEORGIA 375 to 163. Wow, Biden is going to have a huge landslide!

 

Oof, Rasmussen even sees the writing on the wall. LOL

 

Could you provide some evidence or at least a reason to support your contention that 538 is a, "joke?" Here is what I see about Nate Silver's election forecasting success on wikipedia (or is wikipedia considered a joke now?).

Silver was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election.[4] In the 2012 United States presidential election, the forecasting system correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[5] FiveThirtyEight, like many outlets, failed to anticipate the rise of Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential primaries.[6] However, the 30% chance of victory they gave Trump going into election day was significantly higher than that of most other analysts.[7]

 

I know you're being facetious, but the joke really doesn't track with the idea of putting, "odds," on something. For example, at the start of football season, the odds of winning the Super Bowl will be against every team, yet we know that one team will win. Predictions about the likelihood of something are not guarantees of results, for sure. This thread, I thought, was only about tracking those predictions. Speaking of which, when I first read PatriotNews say he wanted to track the election odds, I assumed he meant betting odds. I tried to use those a little in my thread about the approaching debates. I haven't checked the individual prop bets to see how they fared, but the overall picture they had seemed to paint, at any rate, did NOT match the actual debate.

It should be added, however, that I took those prop bets like 5 days prior to the debate, & betting lines change as an event nears, much like weather forecasts. Still, there will be more than a few days when those predictions will be-- forgive the pun-- "all wet." Here are the average of the current betting lines, as printed in Barron's:

Biden’s odds of winning the presidency jumped to 59% on Wednesday from 54.5% on Tuesday, according to RealClearPolitics’ average of recent betting lines. That is Biden’s biggest lead in betting markets since Aug. 8. Fundstrat’s Tom Block told Barron’s that recent polling has given Biden an edge, while Trump didn’t do much to turn the narrative around during the debate. Block believes the debate would have been Trump’s best chance to do so.

“While his [Trump’s] base loves his take-no-prisoners approach to governing, I think with the pandemic and related economic disaster, it may be running thin with independent and swing voters and the betting odds may be reflecting this evolving mood,” Block said. “Even Republican pollster Frank Luntz’s focus group showed discouraging signs from swing voters and Trump needed a lift, not a draw.”

Block also told clients he found the debate, “a sad night with shouting and insults that I can’t remember at any level of government.”

“Markets look for clarity and the debate was a big zero on that count,” Block added.

Note a different way of expressing the odds (as is standard in other types of bets) in the Vegas Insider:

https://www.vegasinsider.com/odds/us-presidential-election-2020/

 

1) Odds Checker has a good article explaining what the odds mean. For example, it gives both the U.K. & U.S. expressions of the same odds: for Biden, UK is 5/7 (meaning one wins 5 add'l, for every 7 bet/must bet 7 in order to win 5)= -140 in US terms (bet $140 to win $100). The, "implied chance," under these odds is the expected likelihood of winning, out of the total number of chances (i.e., the 7 theoretical winning shares + the 5 losing shares); so 7÷12= 58.33%.

For Trump, the current odds are: 11/8 (UK), +138 (US), = 42.1%. You'd win 11 for every 8 you'd bet (beyond the return of your wager), $138 on a $100 bet. In American values, any choice preceded by a minus sign indicates a favorite (because you're betting more than the amount you would win on that bet), while the longer odds/underdog is preceded by a plus-sign (showing your winning payout on a $100 bet [over & above the $100 you'd bet]); +/-100 would be an, "even bet:"

https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insi...ificant-odds-movements-following-first-debate
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2) This is an interesting article from Forbes Magazine, from Sept.17 which-- besides explaining the rationale for looking at betting odds, instead of just political polls-- contrasts the polls which are typically used by the media, with the results of the, "heretic," Rasmussen polls. (Nevertheless, in a Sept. 29th article, after the debate, Forbes was quoting the regularly, "fluffed," polls, from the same sources used by the main of media).

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...e-just-shifted-vegas-oddsmakers-think-so/amp/

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3) My Bookie sets odds on the individual state results as well, & has all manner of other, "prop bets (propositions)--" check the odds, or bet, on whether President Trump will be the next recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, or on there being a Covid-19 vaccination available by the November 3rd U.S. election.

https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/presidential-elections/

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4) Lastly, here are a couple more polls, with modest variances from the other links, detailing the before-debate vs. after-debate poll numbers:


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ac...odds-presidential-race-donald-trump-joe-biden


https://www.thelines.com/odds/election/

 

SO, What Happens to the Odds, NOW?? I guess it's going to be largely dependent on the course of President Trump's illness.