Trump will be Re-elected

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Trump Gurl, Feb 16, 2020.

  1. Trump Gurl

    Trump Gurl Banned

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    Five reasons why Trump will be reelected that I put this together myself:
    1. Accomplishments
    2. Fund Raising
    3. Prediction Models
    4. "Bernie"
    5. The Democrats own fumbling & extremism:

    First, Prediction Models:

    3 modelers predict Trump reelection: report
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/445668-3-modelers-predict-trump-reelection
    Three modelers are predicting President Trump will win reelection in 2020 based on a combination of economic data and incumbent advantages, according to a column in The New York Times.
     
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  2. Trump Gurl

    Trump Gurl Banned

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    That was the models. Next is the Fundraising. It does not win elections by itself but lots of money sure helps:

    Republican Party sets fundraising record amid impeachment battle:
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-party-sets-fundraising-record-amid-impeachment-battle

    EXCLUSIVE: The Republican National Committee has announced record fundraising numbers amid the impeachment drive against President Trump, hauling in a whopping $20.6 million in November, according to Federal Election Commission data obtained by Fox News. The RNC told Fox News that this is the best November on record in party history.
     
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  3. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Incumbent advantages and economic data is nice, but you need to add demographic data to that to get a more accurate picture.

    https://www.brookings.edu/wp-conten...metro_billfrey_electoralfuture-report2018.pdf

    As the NYT reports, "if all of the country’s racial groups replicate in 2020 their voter turnout and partisan preferences of 2016 — essentially a “do-over” — the Democrats would win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, just because of the demographic changes over the past four years."
     
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  4. Trump Gurl

    Trump Gurl Banned

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    Thanks for the post. It is interesting that you article and mine both came from the NYT. This is why I am approaching this from five different aspects. The models were just one. The insane off-the-charts Fundraising was another.

    Now this one I admit is just a theory of mine but I think its a good one: The Bernie Factor.

    Bernie Sanders.

    Bernie right now has the momentum among the Dems. The Bernie brigades are still very angry at how the rigged Democrat Primary system (yes, rigged, by superdelegates) stole the nomination from him and gave it to Crooked Hillary. Yes, very angry. He really did get screwed too I believe.

    So, one of two things will happen this time around: Bernie will win or he will get cheated again.

    If he gets cheatd again, the Sanders groupies will have a cow, and will stay home. There is no way they will give their vote to the party that screwed their guy twice. Trump will win.

    OR: Sanders will win the nomination, and Trump will destroy him. Up until now the fake news media has kept a lid on just how much of a insane extremist communist this imbecile Sanders really is. But when he and his polices and his stupidities and his cabal of Commies gets under the Big Top Spotlight, center stage, in a national election, the GOP will destroy him so badly that he’ll wish he had never been born. They will crush him. Trump will win.

    That's three reasons now.
     
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  5. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Questions you should be asking:
    • Are these 3 models representative of the larger modeling crowd?
    • How accurate have these models been in the past?
    • Are the models designed to predict a popular vote or an electoral vote outcome?
    The only model discussed in any detail in Hill article is the Fair Model (not making an account to read the NYT one). This model is designed to predict the popular vote. The model has been fairly accurate - correctly predicting the winner of 8 of 10 elections from 1980-2016, with a mean margin of error of 3.5%.

    Despite correctly predicting the election winner in 2016, the model was pretty off the mark in terms of the popular vote outcome. See Fair's comments:

    I would say that popular voting models are of dubious utility here given the path Trump took to win in 2016 and likely plans to replicate again in 2020.
     
  6. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yep if sanders gets cheated his voters wont vote for the corporate dem.

    But too many are underestimating sanders and the fact that most Americans support many of the issues he embraces .

    Trump will probably beat him but it wont be a blowout imo. Indeed sanders is stronger against trump than any corporate dem.

    I called the last election for trump here on this forum. Because he was a change ccandidate . But so is sanders. And that is why it wont be a blowout .

    Lets see if I am right this time too.
     
  7. Trump Gurl

    Trump Gurl Banned

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    Well I can answer one point: Models should predict the electoral college outcome because that is how we elect our presidents.
     
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  8. Trump Gurl

    Trump Gurl Banned

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    Thank you for the post. I think the big difference between Trump 2016 "change" and Sanders 2020 "change" is that Trump is a businessman and for a long time many people have thought we needed a businessman, and Sanders is a socialist and I don't anybody has ever thought we needed one of those.
     
  9. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    While they should, they do not always. Do you have the names of the other two models from the NYT article?
     
  10. Trump Gurl

    Trump Gurl Banned

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    Point number 4: Accomplishments

    Why Donald Trump will win 2020

    https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/475457-why-donald-trump-will-win-2020

    Some takeways from the article:
    • Since Trump took office, more than 7 million new jobs have been created. Unemployment has fallen from 4.8 percent to 3.5 percent, with African American and Hispanic unemployment at historic lows. In sharp contrast to the Obama era, the labor force has been growing rather than shrinking. More Americans are now working than ever before…
    • Given that no president running for reelection in the postwar era has been defeated with unemployment at less than 7.4 percent, the record of Trump on the jobs front alone sets him as a formidable candidate for reelection…
    • Moreover, Trump signed into law the Tax Cut and Jobs Act two years ago. Though Democrats derided it as a sop to the wealthy, a study showed that an average family of four earning the median annual income of $73,000 received a cut in federal income taxes of more than $2,000…
    • Since Trump was elected, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has soared by more than 50 percent to more than 28,000 points. The S&P 500 has climbed by more than 50 percent to more than 3,200 points. The Nasdaq composite has risen by more than 70 percent to more than 8,800 points. If you think those gains go only to elites, think again, as about 100 million people have 401(k)s and 42 million households have individual retirement accounts. They know who is putting more money in their wallets and who is making it easier to save for retirement and pay for college for their kids…
    The article is short and I did not want to violate the copyright thing. Check it out for yourself:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/445668-3-modelers-predict-trump-reelection
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2020
  11. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    trump is on shaky grounds in three states that would flip the election in 2020 — PA, MI and WI — he won each in 2016 by less than 0.8%

    Do you have a poll with him winning a single one?


    Also, I love all the “new” posters with trump or maga in their name...
    Doesn’t look suspicious at all!
     
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  12. Trump Gurl

    Trump Gurl Banned

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    Polls are not part of my "Five Reasons" because it is too far away right now for any poll to mean anything. I would suggest to read up on Brad Parscale. He is the genius man, social media and polling and numbers crunching.




    I have no idea what that means.
     
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  13. Trump Gurl

    Trump Gurl Banned

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    Last is point five: The Democrats own fumbling & extremism, and that includes the media.

    I said there are five reasons Trump will win: Accomplishments, Fund Raising, Prediction Models, "Bernie", and the Democrats own fumbling & extremism. and I already covered the first four.

    Oh, there are so many insane extremist things that the Democrats have said and done, I will fill the thread up with them eventually. Independents hate that stuff and they are turning to Trump.

    Facts Are the Antidote to Trump Derangement Syndrome
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...ote_to_trump_derangement_syndrome_142071.html

    Being a conservative in perhaps the most liberal state in the country, Massachusetts, I'm often asked why I support the president by those on the left, some of whom think he's a racist, misogynist, homophobe, criminal and, for good measure, a bully. I laugh and say, "It's because none of those things are true!" and then hit them with facts, not #FakeNews.
     
  14. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    I'm skeptical that if Bernie gets cheated out of the nomination, it will have much impact on turnout. The Bernie Bros were cheated last time, and most still ended up voting for Hillary. Sure some voted Green or stayed home, but they were all under the impression (thanks to the media) that Hillary couldn't lose. Since they are not going to fall for that one again, I think the Bernie Bros will have an even higher turn out in 2020 than they did in 2016.

    If Bernie gets the nomination, the media will downplay his commie tendencies. A lot of people seem to think a Bernie nomination will lead to a massive collapse of the Democratic vote, but I don't think it will. Do we have any polling that suggests that if Bernie is the nominee that the typical Democratic voter would sit out the election? I've not seen that. They hate Trump and only mildly disprove of communism.
     
  15. CourtJester

    CourtJester Well-Known Member

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    Let’s have some laughs. List actual accomplishments
     
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  16. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Hard pass
     
  17. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I really hope its Sanders v Trump. Primarily because Sanders is about as anti-establishment as progressives get (which isn't a lot, but the more the better), but also because the Bernie crowd deserve their due representation and as much as I dislike naive collectivists, I really hate watching the elite political establishment crap all over them.
     
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  18. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Very well. I found a separate article that lists them. The other two are Donald Luskin's model with Trend Macroanalytics, and Moody's Analytics model.

    Luskin's Model (link)

    Luskin's is the newer of the models, only used thus far to predict 2012 and 2016 elections. In 2012 it was very accurate - within just a few electoral votes of accuracy. In 2016 it was very inaccurate - predicting a Trump victory by 228 electoral votes, vs the actual of 77. The author states that despite inaccuracy, the model was "directionally correct in predicting a Trump win." While that is true, it is hard to overlook the sheer margin for error the model has when the author backtracks it illustrate its validity:

    That is really inaccurate for such a new model. It makes me question if the author has picked the heuristics to only get to the point of yielding the winners of 1952-2008 without regard to accuracy in electoral votes. It is of dubious utility given that it has only been around for 2 election cycles and was only really accurate in one of them.

    Moody's Model (link)

    Out of the ones presented in the article, this is definitely the one I respect the most. It is pretty obvious that more time has been spent crafting this model down to the expected electoral votes in each state (instead of an aggregate point system used in Luskin's). Despite ultimately concluding that a Trump victory in 2020 is the most likely by averaging all scenarios together, there is a bit of caveat with this conclusion.

    First, Moody's incorrectly predicted the 2016 election. Upon regression analysis, they have updated their criteria with three new things for 2020. These include a switch to using 3 concurrent models instead of one, adding voter turnout as an element, and shortening the time period of which some economic variables are calculated. Moody's was unable to find statistically reliable predictors for voter turnout, so they opted to:

    This yields a total of 9 overall model predictions (see page 9-10). In all models where voter turnout is projected to be minimal or average, Trump wins by a healthy margin. But in models with historically high turnout, the race is projected to be very close:

    So your assessment of how Moody's projects the outcome of the election really boils down to how significant a voter turnout you expect there to be. If you expect minimal or average turnout, then by all means Trump takes it no problem. But if you expect a high turnout, they are projecting more of a contest.
     
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  19. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    It's all speculation, pollsters, and talking heads for 260 more days.

    Then it suddenly gets real.
     
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  20. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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  21. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of "advanced intellectual inferiority" you forgot to call him a "democratic socialist".
     
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  22. Robert E Allen

    Robert E Allen Banned

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    I think he'll get re elected but, it will be close.

    The Democrats need to stop fighting against the president and work on getting some bipartisan stuff done so they can have a party platform beyond defeating Trump.

    If they want a chance in 2024.
     
  23. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I am not so confident that Trump would destroy Bernie. Trump is lucky that Bernie is somewhat too extreme on some of his platforms.

    I agree with you with respect to the Blue Anti Establishment (AE) staying home if Bernie gets screwed - and believe that his why Blue lost the last election - Don't think the Blue AE ran out and voted red but many just stayed home.

    In general Trump is a disaster. He has done some good things and some not so good - but his general persona is right out of a Reality TV Show. This is fun sometimes but - it loses its luster pretty quick.

    Red faces a demographic time bomb - their platforms do not appeal to the younger generation. 4 years have passed - that is 4 more years of people voting in that demographic and 4 more years of older folks dying off.

    The Red Anti Establishment movement helped Trump last election - just wanting to throw a maltov cocktail into the Establishment.
    To those that pay attention - Trump has turned out to be just another Establishment wonk ... so that card will not be as strong this go around. He will still get some meat out of that diatribe as many are not aware of what the Establishment is.

    To early to call - many months to go before election day.
     
  24. Trump Gurl

    Trump Gurl Banned

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    Do you want to know where the Democrats have really screwed up with crazy stupidity, as a practical matter? It's with The Wall. Trump wants that wall so bad that he would have negotiated away all kinds of things that the Democrats want if they could have just given Trump a wall. Trump would have given them the world. In fact he even tried to give them all kinds of things in a White House negotiation in return for a wall but their hatred and their stupid arrogance and their extremism kept them from doing it. Politics is a practical matter of give-and-take and Trump would have given the world for that wall. That's probably the biggest screw up of the Democrats during the Trump presidency, except of course for their fascist attempt to overthrow the government with a fake impeachment based on false charges

    And thats my point. His extremism is his enemy.

    I disagree obviously. I love his personality and he had done far more great things than just "some."
     
  25. Trump Gurl

    Trump Gurl Banned

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    That's the sort of stupid stuff that people say when they are incapable of handling the truth. I'm sure that the millions of people who now have jobs don't think its a laugh..

    TRUMP:
    • Almost 6 million jobs created since election.
    • More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
    • We have created more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs since the election.
    • Manufacturing jobs growing at the fastest rate in more than THREE DECADES.
    • Economic growth last year hit 4.2 percent and is still robust as needed
    • New unemployment claims recently hit a 50-year low.
    • Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
    • African-American unemployment has recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
    • Hispanic-American unemployment is at the lowest rate ever recorded.
    • Asian-American unemployment recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
    • Women’s unemployment recently reached the lowest rate in 65 years.
    • Youth unemployment has recently hit the lowest rate in nearly half a century.
    • Lowest unemployment rate ever recorded for Americans without a high school diploma.
    • Veterans’ unemployment recently reached its lowest rate in nearly 20 years.
    • Almost 3.9 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps since the election.
    • The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans. We are committed to VOCATIONAL education.
    • 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future—the highest ever.
    • Signed the biggest package of tax cuts and reforms in history. After tax cuts, over $300 billion poured back in to the U.S. in the first quarter alone.
    • As a result of the tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
    • Helped win U.S. bid for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
    • Helped win U.S.-Mexico-Canada’s united bid for 2026 World Cup.
    • Opened ANWR and approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines.
    • Record number of regulations eliminated.
    • Enacted regulatory relief for community banks and credit unions.
    • Obamacare individual mandate penalty GONE.
    • Secured $6 billion in NEW funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
    • Reduced high-dose opioid prescriptions by 16 percent during my first year in office.
    • Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
    • Increased our coal exports by 60 percent; U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high.
    • United States is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
    • Cancelled the illegal, anti-coal, so-called Clean Power Plan.
    • Secured record $700 billion in military funding; $716 billion next year.
    • NATO allies are spending $69 billion more on defense since 2016.
    • Process has begun to make the Space Force the 6th branch of the Armed Forces.
    • Confirmed more circuit court judges than any other new administration.
    • Confirmed Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and nominated Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
    • Withdrew from the horrible, one-sided Iran Deal.
    • Moved U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.
    • Protecting Americans from terrorists with the Travel Ban, upheld by Supreme Court.
    • Issued Executive Order to keep open Guantanamo Bay.
    • Concluded a historic U.S.-Mexico Trade Deal to replace NAFTA. And negotiations with Canada are underway as we speak.
    • Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
    • Imposed tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum to protect our national security.
    • Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices.
    • Net exports are on track to increase by $59 billion this year.
    • Improved vetting and screening for refugees, and switched focus to overseas resettlement.
    • Begun BUILDING THE WALL. Republicans want STRONG BORDERS and NO CRIME. Democrats want OPEN BORDERS which equals MASSIVE CRIME.


    [​IMG]
     

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