Trumpery insures a GOP fumigation in the House.

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Natty Bumpo, Feb 6, 2018.

  1. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    What about the state executive offices?

    A few competent Republicans like Charlie Baker in Massachusetts should be able to escape the spread of pernicious TrumpStink but, in most states, Democrats will be making sure that GOP candidates reek of it.

     
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  2. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    The stench of trumpery befouling the nation's air is not, of itself, sufficient motivation for many Americans to freshen it. Hard work is needed to achieve that:

    * Contrast that embarrassment of riches with the GOP's unchallenged candidate in Illinois:

     
  3. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I dunno, for IMO, until the DP will lie once again and say they will represent the working middle class, I doubt they can gain back what they have lost. Running on trump being a nazi will only fool the democrats. But I say, hell, stick with that. It is a sure fire winner!

    Meanwhile, if the economy is better for working people by the midterm, and holds, the DP had better do some soul searching. The lack of living wage jobs is one of the factors which elected trump. Something the DP is oblivious to, IMO. And as the minority working people realize that the DP could not give a rat's arse about them, well, it ain't gonna help the DP win elections. Breaking the working people into groups, as the DP has so cleverly done, for years, blacks, hispanics, whites, will no longer work, when these non white working people finally see how they have been conned by identity politics, which has not served them at all. Not that the GOP gives a rat's arse about these people, but if the perception is, that trump does....good luck to the DP! Even the DP trying to use the fact that a ethnic nationalist is running in chicago to discredit the GOP won't work. But it is all that they have. They are clearly desperate and who can blame them?
     
  4. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    The economy would normally trump (heh) most issues, I agree, One Mind.

    However, the stink of Trump is such it may well drive the GOP in search of other candidates.

    November is a long time away, politically, and much will happen in between, but the GOP holding the Senate and the House are not guaranteed outcomes. And, yes, the Dems are going to have to do soul searching as well.
     
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  5. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    They love that Trump stank, seems to me. They want to ride that wave of populism, and Trump is a salesman - crooked, dishonest, charismatic, manipulative, and successful. This is what our democracy has devolved into.
     
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  6. Spooky

    Spooky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Democrats are not doing well in general polling. They've dropped 21 points in the last month and currently only lead by two. Nate Silver says that polling automatically gives democrats (in this case) or the party out of power a +4 advantage.

    That means they are effectively trailing or at best, tied, with republicans. The last time they were swept out of office they went into the midterms leading by +12.
     
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  7. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    You are not, politely, demonstrating a grasp of math.

    This may help.

    http://campaign.kumon.com/math-prog...est&utm_term=+math programs&utm_content=Broad
     
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  8. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    The polling works on a sine wave depending upon various factors. The GOP taxcut is probably the cause of the latest uptick for them but what actually matters is the long term trend.

    Unless that trend changes away from the Dems the end result is still going to be positive for them. They are energized and organized and getting funded too.

    On top of that the GOP has the problem of being the party in power and the BLOTUS stench hanging over everything it does.

    The polls will swing back when the DOW downturn shows up and when Mueller announces the next indictments.
     
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  9. PrincipleInvestment

    PrincipleInvestment Well-Known Member

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    Successful being the only relevant adjective ... Campaign donations. The point not addressed. The DNC spent twice as much money losing an election ... how slim are the chances of winning when that spending strategy is reversed? Add the weight of the DACA debacle that's been hung around the democrats collective neck, that inevitable failure not being reflected in the polls ... YET. I'm feeling pretty good going into mid-terms, but I doubt many democrats are.
     
  10. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    As one who is following all the house races, which is still hard to do without candidates names. We do have some numbers to ponder though. One is the Generic congressional polls. It's interesting to note that on 1 December of 2017 the democrats had a 12 point lead in them. But by 1 Feb 2018 that lead had fallen to 6 points, as of today it is up to seven. What does a seven point lead mean historically in the generic congressional polls for one party or the other. Usually as 30 plus seat pick up depending on whose model one uses. The ranges are 30 plus to 50 seat plus pick up. Regardless, seven points indicate the democrats will gain their 24 seats.

    But I prefer to look at the at risk seats. Seats that fall into a category that means it is very possible they may switch. All the competitive races. To day the Republicans have 44 seats in the at risk category vs. only 8 for the democrats. As I stated the Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats. They do have the advantage that 6 of the the 44 Republican seats at risk, the Democrats is a solid favorite. Those six seats are almost sure to switch. That means the democrats must win 18 of the 38 seats remaining that are currently held by Republicans to take control of the House. That is if the Democrats retain all 8 of their seats.

    One also has to take into account that the Republicans will have 29 open seats. No republican incumbent running for re-election. Those seats are easier to switch. But only 10 of those 29 are in the remaining 38 at risk seats the Republicans have. The Democrats have 3 out of their 8 at risk seats that are open, no incumbent.

    There are other factors, party affiliation, Trump's approval rating, the PVI, money of course, voter turn out, several other factors to take into account. Another factor is the Republicans are over extended. By that I mean they now hold several traditionally strong Democratic districts that are bound to switch back. The question is when? I would guess this year. The Trump factor energizing Democratic voters. If the election were held today, I am sure the democrats would get their 24 plus some more.

    How many more? No one can be sure. But going by the current numbers I would peg their gain somewhere between 28-35.
     
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  11. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    An astute analysis.

    One additional factor is Democratic campaign fundraising vs that of the GOP. If the Kochs and Sheldon Adelson deem Republicans a poor investment, the Jones vs Moore scenario will be repeated repeatedly.
     
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  12. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Money is always important as usually the candidate with the most money wins. Not always, but most of the time.There are races where money doesn't play much of a factor, but they are rare and are usually in heavily one party district.
     
  13. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Judging by the Kochs willingness to commit $20 million to selling the GOP's debt-bloating tax plan that transfers even more of the nation's wealth into their pockets, it could be that that Republicans will be dependent upon the gratitude of a very limited number of very wealthy beneficiaries.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2018
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  14. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    The adjectives are relevant when taken together. Trump is successful at all of the things listed. Turns out being a good liar and manipulator makes one successful in politics. Who knew?
     
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  15. PrincipleInvestment

    PrincipleInvestment Well-Known Member

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    Obviously not the pundits who claimed Trump had no path to victory. :lol:
     
  16. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I really don't think being 20 trillion in debt was an ideal time for a tax cut. Quite the opposite, it was time for a spending cut and a tax increase. Not raising spending and lowering taxes. That is not what I call being fiscal responsible. But since when has anyone in Washington been fiscally responsible. One would have to go back to the pre-Reagan era at least.
     
  17. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    I once swallowed the claim that the GOP was the party of fiscal responsibility.

    That lie has gone the way of ecumenicals being morally, and not politically motivated.
     
  18. Chuck711

    Chuck711 Well-Known Member

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    Quite True !!
     
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  19. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Neither party is. they just worry about the here and now, not the future.
     
  20. CourtJester

    CourtJester Well-Known Member

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    Foolishly they forgot the Russians.
     
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  21. CourtJester

    CourtJester Well-Known Member

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    Not quite true. Both parties worry about the future when they are out of power and can blame the future on the party that is in power.
     
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  22. PrincipleInvestment

    PrincipleInvestment Well-Known Member

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    How many electoral votes were cast by Russia?
     
  23. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I never thought of it that way. Makes sense to me.
     
  24. CourtJester

    CourtJester Well-Known Member

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    Thanks!
     
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  25. Chuck711

    Chuck711 Well-Known Member

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    Democrats Take Republican Seat in Florida Special Election
    February 14, 20181:04 PM ET

    Democrats are cheered by Good's margin of victory. She beat the Republican by 7 percentage points in a district that President Trump won two years ago by a 5-point margin. Analysts say turnout was key to Good's win. A larger number of Democrats voted than in earlier special elections, cutting into the advantage Republicans hold in the number of registered voters. Former Vice President Joe Biden endorsed Good. Trump's former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski campaigned for Buchanan.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2018
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