U.S. grew 2.9% in third quarter, GDP shows, and there’s little sign of recession for now

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Egoboy, Dec 1, 2022.

  1. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2018
    Messages:
    7,029
    Likes Received:
    3,174
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Quote; “Maybe the fact that people saved massively during the pandemic……”

    AND then, a post full vaccination PENT-UP DEMAND

    Facts;

    1. Trump’s highest increase of personal consumptions; $684 billion, 2018

    2. 2021 increase of personal consumptions; Approx. $2 trillion

    Note; In a previous post, I stated the reasons why we also had a record low Personal Savings Rate in August 2005; Strong vehicle sales and big ticket items. In addition, rising home equity, thus, “there were no financial worries to deplete personal savings to near zero”
     
    ButterBalls likes this.
  2. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2018
    Messages:
    25,620
    Likes Received:
    13,909
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    In 2005 people did the opposite of saving. They pulled equity out of their houses and bought BMWs and swimming pools. It was the beginning of the end, and the bottom fell out 2 yrs later.
     
  3. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2018
    Messages:
    7,029
    Likes Received:
    3,174
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Good point!

    In Zorro’s last post, he quoted this statement from Sven Henrich, a financial market strategist;

    “Actual personal savings levels have plummeted to the lowest levels since the GFC…Global Financial Crisis”

    NOTE NOTE NOTE; Back in August 2005, there wasn’t a domestic nor a global financial crisis when the personal savings rate plummeted to a record low of 2.6%.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2022
  4. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2010
    Messages:
    153,325
    Likes Received:
    38,994
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I find that people who simply look at who is President or which party controls congress at a given time and then assign "blame" for all current condidtions to have a very shallow and simplistic view of how things happen and what causes things to happen.
     
  5. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2010
    Messages:
    153,325
    Likes Received:
    38,994
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    ROFLMAO I don't think they had to be persusaded nor anything Trump says concerns them at all.
     
  6. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2010
    Messages:
    153,325
    Likes Received:
    38,994
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Funny I think you have been OK when Biden has tried to do so.
     
  7. Gdawg007

    Gdawg007 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    4,097
    Likes Received:
    1,636
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Layoffs aren't necessarily an indication of the health of the overall economy. They are often an indication companies or sectors over staffed when times were good. Can mass layoffs hurt the economy? Yes. Does it suck to get laied off. Yes. But the root cause of lay offs isn't always a bad economy. It can have other root causes.
     
  8. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2018
    Messages:
    7,029
    Likes Received:
    3,174
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Quote; LPR is down because welfare is up

    Really?

    Not according to this article, here are the main reasons;

    1. Since the pandemic, many older workers have taken early retirement

    2. Several hundred thousand working age people have died from Covid 19

    3. Many families have struggled to find or afford child care, leaving some adults unable to return to work

    Source; U.S. News…….U.S. Hiring Stay Strong, Complicating Fed’s Inflation Fight

    ———-

    Response from above average intelligent people; “There are many reasons”.
     
  9. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2015
    Messages:
    76,423
    Likes Received:
    51,236
    Trophy Points:
    113
    With inflation at nearly 8.5%?

    [​IMG]

    That's nearly a 4% NEGATIVE real return.
    It's a fake news left wing trope. Take it up with someone making the claim.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2022
  10. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2018
    Messages:
    25,620
    Likes Received:
    13,909
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    If you are a retiree and have cash but concerned about risky investments, then a 4.5% guaranteed nominal return is better than a kick in the nuts.

     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2022
    Pollycy likes this.
  11. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2018
    Messages:
    7,029
    Likes Received:
    3,174
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    My low risk investment’s annual compounded rate of return; 7.4%

    PLUS 100%……..Employer’s matched
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2022
  12. yardmeat

    yardmeat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2010
    Messages:
    56,125
    Likes Received:
    30,614
    Trophy Points:
    113
    GDP numbers are generally in real dollars, which already incorporate inflation. I'll have to check on whether this source used that practice, but I have yet to find one that doesn't.
     
  13. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2015
    Messages:
    76,423
    Likes Received:
    51,236
    Trophy Points:
    113
    With the Employee match, you are enjoying a fabulous return. And low risk? That's great!
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2022
  14. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2015
    Messages:
    76,423
    Likes Received:
    51,236
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It has both, that chart is inflation numbers. Here is the key bit: The CD rate I was replying to is growing money at 4.5%/yr.
    So, at the end of a year a $100 is now $104.50
    But,
    Inflation is shrinking money at ~8%/yr, then a $100 at year end will only buy $92.00 worth of goods and services.

    Combining those two is a real return of minus 3.5%, or, at year end you have $104.50 but it will only buy a bit over $96 worth of goods and services.

    This is simplified, but a rough was to easy figure it is subtract the inflation rate from the growth rate.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2022
  15. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2018
    Messages:
    25,620
    Likes Received:
    13,909
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Republicans make that claim, and 70% of them sill believe in "stolen elections" hooblah.

    I take it that you do not think Trump is a significant figure in the GOP.

    Sure, its real vs nominal return. High inflation is a bitch. If you have spare money and invest in CDs and wait out the worst of the inflation and gasoline / energy etc prices come down, then you won't have made such horrible investment. Certainly much better than keeping it in a checking account. Retirees need to play it super safe and avoid losing too much in risky investments.

    Maybe not, but they will manage to cool down the economy and it will shrink inflation. They are not done yet, which is why the stick market is so iffy these days.

    1990s was even better.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2022
  16. yardmeat

    yardmeat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2010
    Messages:
    56,125
    Likes Received:
    30,614
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Not if the growth rate is already in real dollars.
     
  17. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2015
    Messages:
    76,423
    Likes Received:
    51,236
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Take it up with them.
    There is more cheating than some of the Left wants to admit,
    The amount of cheating is beyond the margin of victory less than the some of the Right wants to admit.
    I hope not, but, I am concerned that he could be significant enough to pull the Bull Moose crap that Teddy Roosevelt did, which handed the election to Woodrow Wilson.

    I hope not, but, it's not impossible.
     
  18. Pollycy

    Pollycy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    29,922
    Likes Received:
    14,183
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I created several new certificates in the past two weeks... one at 4.58% and another at 4.8%. You're right about one thing -- 'retirees' like me are happy, although, honestly, the federal funds rate needs to be close to 8% to do any real, long term good against inflation, and you can 'bet the farm' that the Fed under its present management will not (NOT) do that!

    As far as being a "pessimist" is concerned, too bad you didn't know me back when Ronald Reagan was president and Paul Volcker ran the Federal Reserve System. I was one of the more optimistic people you ever met -- for good reason! I started an excellent career in 1981 after returning from Germany, made a ton of money, and so did everyone I knew. What a great time it was to be ALIVE! It was impossible to fugg-up in those days, unless you were a stubbornly-determined, fugged-up kind of person to begin with...!

    [​IMG]. "OK, Paul, we ended inflation... now, I'm going to get rid of the Soviet Union!" :flagus:
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2022
  19. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2010
    Messages:
    153,325
    Likes Received:
    38,994
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I don't think so

    in billions

    2005-01-01 13068.843
    2005-04-01 13465.682
    2005-07-01 13938.769
    2005-10-01 14375.093
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OEHRENWBSHNO

    It wasn't until 2007 that prices began to fall and there were some who got caught in the house flipping stuff that got burned, it never effected my home. And residential housing is a very small part of GDP. Had the Dems used the same fiscal and tax policies the Reps did in 2001 the 2008/9 recession would not have been as deep or as long and we have actually gotten into a full recovery. The did the opposite as Biden is trying to do now.
     
  20. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2015
    Messages:
    76,423
    Likes Received:
    51,236
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Correct.
     
  21. 19Crib

    19Crib Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2021
    Messages:
    5,644
    Likes Received:
    5,525
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Are you aware Federal Ibonds are paying. 6.89%? You can have $10k per SSN number, max.
     
    Pro_Line_FL likes this.
  22. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2018
    Messages:
    25,620
    Likes Received:
    13,909
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    They should have cooled it down in 2004 at the very latest, but they did the opposite. Even Greenspan stood in front of TV cameras and encouraged people to take advantage of 'exotic' loans. Many listened, and got burned because the rates had nowhere to go but up. The 2001 fiscal policies are an example of what NOT to do.
     
  23. BleedingHeadKen

    BleedingHeadKen Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2008
    Messages:
    16,551
    Likes Received:
    1,270
    Trophy Points:
    113
    How did they measure inflation and was their measurement correct?

    They used PCE, giving it at 4.3% (or 4.6% if you factor in energy and food) instead of CPI, which is at least 3.4 points higher. But that's also their "trimmed" number. the Fed reports that PCE is 6%.

    Why not use CPI?
     
  24. BleedingHeadKen

    BleedingHeadKen Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2008
    Messages:
    16,551
    Likes Received:
    1,270
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It's always propaganda. Both sides worship the numbers when their idols and high priests are in charge. You illustrate that perfectly.
     
  25. Pollycy

    Pollycy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    29,922
    Likes Received:
    14,183
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    You and Zorro are both right about certificates-of-deposit at today's completely inadequate interest rates.

    Zorro's right in pointing out that when inflation floats along at 8% (or more) it's STOOPID to tie your money up at several points less.

    But, you are also right that many retirees who have seen this Federal Reserve 'fraud-balloon' sh!t-show before do not want to flirt with bankruptcy by trying to 'catch a falling knife' while they wait for 'the dead cat bounce', and all this other artificially-manipulated shell game bullshit!

    99.9% of 'We, the (little) People" are not in the category that the Fed has deemed "too big to fail", and as the Fed's conduct since 2007 has reflected, a central bank like ours will manipulate the money supply, crush interest rates, and 'buy bonds' with imaginary money to protect the almighty-god stock markets. It's a dangerous sandbox to play in if you don't know every grain of sand in it well. So, I'll take my 4.58% in a 24-month CD, etc., and leave the stock market mosh-pit to those with the expertise needed to know how to milk venom out of poisonous snakes without getting bit....
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2022

Share This Page