U.S. homicide rates compared to different countries

Discussion in 'Gun Control' started by kazenatsu, Aug 29, 2018.

  1. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Let's assume the U.S. is halfway between Canada and Mexico. I'm also going to throw in a little bit of South Africa into the mix, just to paint a more realistic picture.

    Mexico's homicide rate: 25 per 100,000 (2017)
    Canada's homicide rate: 1.8 per 100,000 (2017)
    U.S. homicide rate: 5.3 per 100,000 (2016)

    Argentina homicide rate: 6.2 per 100,000 (2012)
    Chile homicide rate: 3.1 per 100,000 (2012)
    South Africa homicide rate: 34 per 100,000 (2017)

    So let's say the U.S. is like 60% Canada, 30% Mexico, and 10% South Africa.
    0.6 x 1.8 = 1.08
    0.3 x 25 = 7.5
    0.1 x 34 = 3.4

    Just to make this more fair, let's just hypothetically suppose for the sake of argument that half of Mexico's homicide rate is being caused by their current drug crisis. So instead of 7.5, I will use the input 3.7 instead.

    1.08 + 3.7 + 3.4 = 8.18

    So, if we created a country that was a mix of Canada, Mexico (without the drug crisis), and South Africa, to represent the U.S., the homicide rate should be about 8 per 100,000.

    That seems to indicate that the U.S. homicide rate isn't really higher than it should be. There's nothing all that unusual about U.S. homicide rates, if we draw a comparison to other comparable countries in the world.


    I selected South Africa because, out of all the countries in Africa, I thought it would be the one most comparable to the U.S. During the 1970s South Africa was the only country in Africa that could have been considered "First World".
    Since the population of the U.S. is a lot more diverse, it would be unfair to compare it only to countries like England, Australia, or Canada.

    Nigeria is another English-speaking country in Africa. Homicide rate 9.85 per 100,000 (2015).

    Why don't we try this again. What if we created a composition of 12% Nigeria, 33% Argentina, and 55% Canada?

    0.12 x 9.85 = 1.182
    0.33 x 6.2 = 2.046
    0.55 x 1.8 = 0.99
    1.182 + 2.046 + 0.99 = 4.218

    Then the homicide rate would be 4.218 out of 100,000. The current U.S. homicide rate isn't much higher than that.

    I don't see any realistic argument that the U.S. homicide rate would be much lower, if only the U.S. were more like these other countries.
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2018
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  2. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    US murder rate 2016: 5.4/100k, 70% committed w/ firearms
    Thus:
    3.8/100k w/o firearms
    1.6/100k w/o firearms

    So, if all of the guns in the US suddenly disappeared and no more were made, the US would still have a higher murder rate than....

    Finland 1.4
    Serbia 1.4
    Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.3
    Romania 1.3
    France 1.2
    United Kingdom 1.2
    Bulgaria 1.1
    Sweden 1.1
    Slovakia 1.1
    Croatia 1.0
    New Zeland 1.0
    Denmark 1.0
    Malta 0.9
    Australia 0.9
    Germany 0.9
    Slovenia 0.8
    Ireland 0.8
    Greece 0.8
    Netherlands 0.7
    Luxembourg 0.7
    Spain 0.7
    Poland 0.7
    Italy 0.7
    Portugal 0.6
    Czech Republic 0.6
    Austria 0.5
    Norway 0.5
    Switzerland 0.5
    Iceland 0.3
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

    Why is the non-gun murder rate in the US so high?
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2018
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  3. Jbird4049

    Jbird4049 Active Member

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    The causes are debated by historians, but American society especially in, but not only, the South has always been a violent society since its beginnings four centuries ago. Whatever one’s opinions on guns are, their availability merely increases the violence’s lethality, not its existence.
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2018
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  4. Xenamnes

    Xenamnes Banned

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    Considering the number of deaths attributed to motor vehicles, despite them not being intended to serve in the role of lethal weapons, such a claim is debatable in and of itself.
     
  5. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    A lot of random assumptions and comparisons seem to have been made in the OP. Ultimately, guns increase the homicide rate by making violence more lethal. That is something we can be sure of.
     
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  6. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    Compared to bare hands, knives and blunt instruments also make violence more lethal. That's why weapons were invented.
     
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  7. Xenamnes

    Xenamnes Banned

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    The FBI has demonstrated otherwise on the matter.
     
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  8. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    But we can't (legally or morally) send someone to life in prison until they actually murder somebody. So there is a fair probability these same individuals you're referring to will eventually kill, the timespan will just be delayed a little bit.

    That's why I don't think your proposals would ultimately decrease as many homicides as you think.

    Unless you don't believe there's such a thing as a murderer and anyone could commit murder if given a weapon, which I suspect is the premise you're operating on.
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2018
  9. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We could, of course, bring back dueling. It might solve a lot of problems...

    Make killing into something legal, and nice and orderly.
    (Kind of like Abortion when you think about it... :wink: )

    At least the South had a code of honor.
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2018
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  10. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Cherry picking and unless I missed something no link to,WHERE those stats came from

    But why not compare to Australia or the U.K. or Europe or anywhere else? We have a bloody diverse population. Probably even more than the USA as does the UK
    https://www.migrationpolicy.org/pro...immigrants-australia-canada-and-united-states

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Xenamnes

    Xenamnes Banned

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    For the simple fact that the nation of Australia cannot be properly compared to non-island nations that share borders with numerous other nations.
     
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  12. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    Unsupportable nonsense.
    As usual.
     
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  13. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Did you have to wait until right at the end of your post to present the strawman argument you (think you’re) challenging?

    Regardless, your methodology is so simplistic and generic as to be worse than meaningless.
     
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  14. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Why not? We have a bloody long coastline, and most of the northern section is only sparsely populated. You can get from Papua to Cape York by canoe and our near neighbours include the largest Muslim nation on Earth
     
  15. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Really when and where ?
     
  16. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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  17. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    I will try to find something more recent

    This is a bit off topic for the reply but worthy just the same

    [​IMG]
     
  18. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    Still waiting for an answer.
     
  19. Xenamnes

    Xenamnes Banned

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    Which is not the same as actually being physically landlocked, such as the united states is to the nation of Mexico.
     
  20. Xenamnes

    Xenamnes Banned

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    By counting all non-firearm-related deaths, which is still significantly higher than the total homicide rates of most other nations.
     
  21. Xenamnes

    Xenamnes Banned

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    The chart shows a very gradual increase in firearm-related deaths over the cited time frame. Just slightly under five thousand deaths over a period of fourteen years. Such is hardly a massive jump. It is approximately three hundred and forty additional deaths a year, spread out over the categories of suicide, homicide, simple negligence, actions by law enforcement officers, and justifiable self-defense by private individuals.

    The chart also shows a massive drop in motor-vehicle-related deaths occurring over a span of just four years. Is it known specifically just what happened during that four year period, which would explain such a drop taking place?

    Barring unforeseen developments from tainted samples, super bugs, and compromised immune systems, deaths that can be directly attributed to illness and the use of illicit substances can take years to occur. Someone can be using a substance such as heroin or cocaine for a decade before finally dying as a result, whereas being shot can result in immediate death. The two standards cannot be properly compared in a legitimate manner when the narrative is that one cause is more harmful to the public than another.
     
  22. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's a load of crap. The violence we see is centered in liberal controlled urban shitholes, not the 'South'...
     
  23. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So it kinda looks like lily white countries have a lower homicide rates.
     
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  24. Turtledude

    Turtledude Well-Known Member Donor

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    gun control was used by racist whites to disarm honest blacks and is now used by Urban elite lefties to disarm white suburban and rural conservative whites.
     
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  25. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    The states with the highest murder rates are disproportionately concentrated in the South. Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi had the highest homicide rates in the nation in 2016. California with its strict gun laws had a lower homicide rate than Florida with its lax gun laws in 2016. St. Louis has a homicide rate which is double Chicago's. St. Louis is located in a state with laxer gun laws than Illinois.

    More enlightening information:

    "The average violent crime rate (murder, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault) in 2008 for the 28 states that voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential election was 389 incidents per 100,000 residents. The average violent crime rate for the 22 states that voted for John McCain was 412 incidents per 100,000 residents – or a 5.8 percent higher incidence of violent crime."
    http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/2009/09/16/red-states-have-higher-crime-r/

    I think there is a very obvious pattern in all this data.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2018

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