UK after leaving the EU.

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by william walker, Oct 13, 2016.

  1. william walker

    william walker New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2012
    Messages:
    1,289
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Since Britain voted to leave the EU.

    I believe in the future we will see balance of payments issues with trade, further currency decrease, increasing inflation from the extra cost of trading and the lower currency. To offset this the government will start to deregulate, raise interest rates, the bank of England intervening from time to time within the currency markets and balance of payments issues. Unemployment will be overall stable for the next couple years. This means trade exports will increase, as will the growth rate. So the deficit will fall and the government will continue to keep government spending increases below the rate of inflation.

    This will all change once the EU breaks apart, then we will have job losses, a recession, our currency will rise and trade will fall for a couple years. However the British economy already a couple years removed from the EU will recover faster than any other major European economy, the UK will emerge by 2025 as the strongest economy in Europe, with low inflation, low unemployment, decreasing debt and a well valued currency. Trade will be increasing again and the stock market will be growing. House prices will be decreasing and wages increasing. Like it or not Britain is in the strongest possible position after the leave the EU. The only question is how we act and use our position of strength.
     
  2. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2015
    Messages:
    25,552
    Likes Received:
    5,367
    Trophy Points:
    113
    My compliments on a very well-balanced summing up. All we need do meanwhile is ignore the embittered doom-mongers, the agenda-driven nay-sayers, and other similar bad losers, re-discover our self-confidence, and the world will eventually be our oyster. We must keep our heads while those around us are losing theirs.
     
  3. Blücher

    Blücher Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    421
    Likes Received:
    190
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Gender:
    Male
    I don't see a position of strength. The world isn't waiting for Brexit-GB.

    In 2025 you will see a closer and reformed EU because the democratic evolution of the EU is not hindered anymore by british politicians.
     
  4. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2015
    Messages:
    25,552
    Likes Received:
    5,367
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Well I'm very pleased we have the current prime minister to oversee our 'extrication' from the dysfunctional self-serving circus than the previous one.
     
  5. Cheddar

    Cheddar Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2016
    Messages:
    125
    Likes Received:
    20
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Dream on...
     
  6. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2015
    Messages:
    25,552
    Likes Received:
    5,367
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'm just surprised the whole misbegotten shebang hasn't crashed and burned already.
     
  7. Fugazi

    Fugazi New Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2012
    Messages:
    17,057
    Likes Received:
    95
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Rubbish, the internal conflict in the EU is not being driven by GB and will cause it to crash and burn.
     
  8. Caligula

    Caligula Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2012
    Messages:
    1,724
    Likes Received:
    654
    Trophy Points:
    113

    I have bookmarked this thread. Let's wait and see what happens and what the situation will be in ten or something years from now.
    I have read way too many Nostradamus like comments from yanks on this forum which turned out to be not even worth the discussion.
    Maybe it'll be different this time.
     
  9. lunecat

    lunecat Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    4,677
    Likes Received:
    19
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Just so long as we do actually leave the EU! which I fear that the remoaners (Politicians, Civil Service, Bankers, Big Business & mass Media) are all doing their very best to scupper. Then yes we as a Country will be far better off in the long run. The EU is a failed NAZI experiment that we in the UK have shown the lead to exit. More Countries would like to follow. Free trade is a good idea, unelected EU bureaucrats such as the EU commision is an insult to all freedom loving people & a particular insult to the British people.

    This is a revolution and if people have to die to free us from this slow strangle hold then die they must.
     
    The Bear likes this.
  10. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    18,965
    Likes Received:
    3,420
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    Well Brexit has not begun yet. A vote was taken which in England got a small majority of angry people voting yes. On that possibly the 12,000,000 who did not use their vote have something to answer for, not least as most of them were the young who wanted to remain.

    In the short term with the continuing demise of the pound we begin to see rises in essentials like food and fuel which will of course as usual hurt those with least the most.

    It and it's reverberations have not yet got started so you are right, look back in five or ten years. One thing is for certain. It was the most mindless thing the UK has done in known history. Vote for something which no one had any plan for the outcome of.
     
    Montegriffo likes this.
  11. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2015
    Messages:
    25,552
    Likes Received:
    5,367
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I have faith in May, and confidence that Nige, and David Davis, Gove et al will ensure oversight, and blow the whistle if they see anything dodgy going on. Meanwhile let the poor losers Remainers whinge all they like, who cares. I'll bet they're incandescent that all the doom-mongering has proved to be wrong, especially the gobby Soubry.
     
  12. Interaktive

    Interaktive Member

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2016
    Messages:
    222
    Likes Received:
    22
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Why complain about the EU bureaucracy if the UK GDP after the accession to the EU has been growing fast?
     
  13. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2016
    Messages:
    9,570
    Likes Received:
    1,987
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Disagree and Agree.
    The EU can do it's political thing better without us. Good luck with it, (don't make us nuke you).

    Are we in a position of strength. Very much so.
    Is the world waiting for Brexit. Yes it is. Ambassadors are queuing up. Even yours.

    Free drinks all day for "Brexit boys" in America.
    Yup the world will be watching. Best behaviour now gentlemen, we are on centre stage.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017
  14. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2016
    Messages:
    9,570
    Likes Received:
    1,987
    Trophy Points:
    113
    As one of those with the least, I would like to speak for myself in this.
    On the day Brexit was announced, my business doubled because the pound dropped and because Brexit was so well received politically by my Japanese clients.

    All my pay best cheques are foreign in origin. The lower pound means I get paid in more of them.
    By and large I buy domestic. Support those local businesses who support me. I am mostly unaffected by import inflation because I simply buy British in preference and always have.

    The biggest problem I have with being on the low end economically here is an extra 3 million people to compete with for working class jobs. Jobs like the nightshift which used to pay double, no longer do. Agencies turn me down for being English. Jobs are all taken.

    The UK doesn't want to be in the EU. That much has been abundantly clear since it's inception.
     
  15. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2016
    Messages:
    9,570
    Likes Received:
    1,987
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Because ultimately it's not all about the money.

    Now you know.
     
  16. diamond lil

    diamond lil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,760
    Likes Received:
    180
    Trophy Points:
    63
    It's a bloody shambles, as predicted. As for Theresa May, she doesn't have the faintest idea what to do.
    My guess is, there will be an interim period granted which will go on for years.
     
  17. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2015
    Messages:
    25,552
    Likes Received:
    5,367
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The Bear likes this.
  18. diamond lil

    diamond lil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,760
    Likes Received:
    180
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Of course the UK must pay her dues, otherwise how will we get any good trade deals?

    All the deals we have now will be null and void after Brexit, and it'll it be hard enough as it is.
     
  19. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2016
    Messages:
    9,570
    Likes Received:
    1,987
    Trophy Points:
    113
    All the deals but the one. WTO.
    The EU will have to deal with us the same way the rest of the world has to.

    Good enough for the rest of the world, good enough for them.

    The EU is no longer in a position to demand tribute from us. No longer has an international court who's jurisdiction we recognise.

    They want more money? So what, everybody does.
    Trade for it.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2017
  20. Darketernal

    Darketernal Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2011
    Messages:
    74
    Likes Received:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    8
    I think the attack on the Parliament today is another reason to enforce the Brexit and push those migrants back into the sea where they belong. Those migrants were really the biggest motivator to get out of the European Union. It's no good for the United Kingdom, or any given country to be part of a system that hollows out, and replaces valuable (British) or European culture and people with Islam and Muslims, who don't seek to integrate but to walk over and destroy European values and its people. And what happened today was another disgusting example and proof that these people don't mix or blend in with European ideals. They want to replace us, not live with us. Even though what they want to replace us with are of much lower values then the ones currently already in place.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2017
  21. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2016
    Messages:
    9,570
    Likes Received:
    1,987
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Brexit was not a rejection of Middle Eastern culture and values, it was exclusively a rejection of European culture and values.

    Foreign is foreign.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2017
  22. lunecat

    lunecat Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    4,677
    Likes Received:
    19
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Everthing could be wonderful, or it could be a complete sell-out!

    I think the litmus test is the Common Fisheries policy & our sovereign waters. The UN states that 12 nautical miles is the soverign territorial waters (unless we share a border, then it is 50/50).

    This industry may seem small to-day, but once it was MASSIVE! Europe our seafood by the several tons per day & we had many X1000s of people working in that industry earning a living wage. Now we have ships from France & Spain and other fishing in our soverign waters, throughing back caught fish, because of EU quotas, all whilst our own fishing industy died & died again during the 70s, 80s....

    It may seem a small thing compared to the Nisan car plant in Sunderland. But my God, regaining our soverign territorial waters means a hell of a lot to a Nation that wants to be free & Independent.
     
    Vlad Ivx likes this.
  23. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    8,219
    Likes Received:
    6,767
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Hmmmm you don't follow the news do you? The attacker was not an immigrant he was British and born here. Also the Brexit minister himself has said publicly that immigration from the EU is necessary to our economy and will take years to stop.
    If you were hoping for Brexit to mean a sudden end to all those nasty foreigners coming over and those already here to be sent packing I fear you will be seriously disappointed.
     
  24. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    8,219
    Likes Received:
    6,767
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I think you will find that the demise in our fishing industry is due to over fishing which was going on long before we joined the common market. Whilst the CPF is indeed a clusterfuck of epic proportions there is no reason to assume that without EU quotas the industry is going to suddenly recover.
    Perhaps you are too young to remember the cod wars with Iceland where it was our fleets over fishing their waters. The way to help stocks rebuild is not to throw out EU quotas and go back to building new fleets to continue over fishing, it is to stop fishing endangered species altogether and impose strict quotas of our own on the few sustainable fish left.
     
    Oddquine likes this.
  25. Interaktive

    Interaktive Member

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2016
    Messages:
    222
    Likes Received:
    22
    Trophy Points:
    18
    What are the reasons for the exit from the EU?
     

Share This Page