Uncertain World: The Secret to North Koreas Survival

EvilAztec · Apr 12, 2012

Uncertain World: The Secret to North Koreas Survival

North Korea is once again at the center of the worlds attention. Its plan to launch a rocket to mark the centenary of the birth of the great leader Kim Il-sung is causing a headache for all its neighbors and the United States.
Despite the unusual transparency of the event Pyongyang has invited foreign journalists to attend nobody believes that the launch is part of the countrys civilian space program rather than a ballistic missile test. Yet another cause for concern is that North Korean rockets sometimes deviate from their trajectory and simply drop at random.
When the Soviet Union broke apart 20 years ago and the Juche regime was left without material aid, almost everyone believed that it was doomed to an early end. Its collapse was expected in 1994 when its permanent leader Kim Il-sung died, to be succeeded by his son, regarded as a playboy who was not up to the task of ruling the country. Power has once again changed hands, with the great leaders grandson now at the helm. He is young and inexperienced, and he is also not expected to last long in his post. It will be interesting to see what he can achieve in the next several years.
There are several reasons for the exceptional staying power of North Korean socialism. First, Pyongyang has never permitted any experimentation unflagging repression does not leave any room for any alternative paths of development. The powers that be in North Korea have learned the lesson of other socialist countries controlled liberalization instantly spins out of control.
Whats more, the North Korean regime has managed to keep society closed to an unprecedented degree. There is no other state in the world as insulated from foreign influence. This makes the country almost immune to events like the Arab Spring.
Second, at the early stages of this new era in geopolitics, Pyongyang made a far-sighted bet on a nuclear program. As a result, when the U.S. government began to pursue regime change by force at the turn of the century, North Korea was already untouchable the risk of a suicidal nuclear retaliation with unacceptable consequences was too high. As with street gangs, having a reputation as a psycho is a good thing. Despite its strong words, South Korea is unwilling to go too far with its neighbor to the north. Nobody knows for sure whether the leaders of North Korea are prepared for a kamikaze mission, and nobody wants to test their resolve. Pyongyang understands this and actively cultivates its image as an irrational and dangerously unhinged regime.
Third, the support of Beijing, which backed Pyongyang in Soviet times and has been its chief patron since the 1990s, is decisive. This has nothing to do with ideology the aggressive dogma of their North Korean comrades is alien to Chinese pragmatists. But Beijing proceeds from the premise that the status quo is better than any alternative, be it a pro-American united Korea or Greater Korea with ambitions and nationalistic bias.

Fourth, practically nobody is interested in Korean unification. Pyongyang has long stopped dreaming of expansion; it is too busy making an all-out bid to survive. Meanwhile, sudden unification with their North Korean brothers could bankrupt Seoul. Japan, though frightened of its reckless neighbor, would not be happy about the emergence of a united Korea even under Seouls aegis the Koreans have accumulated many grievances against their neighbors, especially the Japanese, over the past hundred years.
Curiously, Russia would actually stand to gain from Korean unification. This does not mean Moscows special relationship with North Korea is anything but pure fantasy. But unification would create a big and influential country with far fewer historical or other grievances against Russia than any of its other neighbors.
With its newfound interest in Asia, Russia wants to diversify its ties to avoid complete dependence on Beijing. Korea could become a very convenient partner in this respect, not to mention Russias plans for transport and energy routes, such as the proposed trans-Korean gas pipeline, that cannot materialize because of the dispute between the two Koreas. This is why Russia is trying to shift the paradigm for a peace settlement and replace the obviously failed American approach with a new one that is based on an attempt to entice Pyongyang with economic dividends.
Finally, the North Korean issue is not nearly as straightforward for the United States as it seems. Obviously, Washington is irritated by this unpredictable state that taunts it with nuclear tests, missile launches and cascades of new centrifuges. But in the long term, this East Asian outcast is very useful for America.
The main challenge of the United States in the next decade is to consolidate its positions in the Asia-Pacific region. This is official policy. Strategic rivalry with China is not yet inevitable but its likelihood is growing. It would be too provocative for Americans to challenge Beijing openly by encircling China (although the U.S. has obviously beefed up diplomacy in Vietnam, Myanmar and the rest of Southeast Asia). Moreover, tightly woven economic interdependence in the region prevents the U.S. from acting head on. In the meantime, the presence of an aggressive regime in the region, which deliberately reaffirms this reputation and frightens U.S. allies in the region, is a good pretext for consolidating alliances and building up military and political presence, from ground- and sea-based systems to missile defense.

Beijing would have been wise to moderate its North Korean client long ago by nudging them along the path to peaceful transformation. However, its not clear that China can do this. Everyone agrees that it is impossible to simply persuade the leadership in Pyongyang. The Western idea that Pyongyang might retreat if Beijing cuts or discontinues economic aid may be erroneous.
North Koreas leaders realize that their Chinese partners primarily want to avoid any escalation that might shift the status quo against Beijings interests. So, its not only America, Japan and South Korea that can be blackmailed through escalation, but China too.
By exerting pressure, Beijing risks provoking Pyongyang into a fit of aggression against Seoul or Tokyo, which could escalate U.S. involvement in the region and backfire against China. Paradoxically, the extremely complicated relations between Asian states, which define the contours of an intense rivalry in the future, are what guarantee the survival of this anachronistic regime the spawn of a bygone era and a failed ideology.

Fyodor Lukyanov is Editor-in-Chief of the Russia in Global Affairs journal the most authoritative source of expertise on Russian foreign policy and global developments

http://en.rian.ru/columnists/20120411/172755085.html

reedak · Apr 13, 2012

EvilAztec said: ↑

.....Second, at the early stages of this new era in geopolitics, Pyongyang made a far-sighted bet on a nuclear program. As a result, when the U.S. government began to pursue regime change by force at the turn of the century, North Korea was already untouchable the risk of a suicidal nuclear retaliation with unacceptable consequences was too high. As with street gangs, having a reputation as a psycho is a good thing. Despite its strong words, South Korea is unwilling to go too far with its neighbor to the north. Nobody knows for sure whether the leaders of North Korea are prepared for a kamikaze mission, and nobody wants to test their resolve. Pyongyang understands this and actively cultivates its image as an irrational and dangerously unhinged regime.

Third, the support of Beijing, which backed Pyongyang in Soviet times and has been its chief patron since the 1990s, is decisive. This has nothing to do with ideology the aggressive dogma of their North Korean comrades is alien to Chinese pragmatists. But Beijing proceeds from the premise that the status quo is better than any alternative, be it a pro-American united Korea or Greater Korea with ambitions and nationalistic bias.

.....Curiously, Russia would actually stand to gain from Korean unification. This does not mean Moscows special relationship with North Korea is anything but pure fantasy. But unification would create a big and influential country with far fewer historical or other grievances against Russia than any of its other neighbors.
With its newfound interest in Asia, Russia wants to diversify its ties to avoid complete dependence on Beijing. Korea could become a very convenient partner in this respect, not to mention Russias plans for transport and energy routes, such as the proposed trans-Korean gas pipeline, that cannot materialize because of the dispute between the two Koreas. This is why Russia is trying to shift the paradigm for a peace settlement and replace the obviously failed American approach with a new one that is based on an attempt to entice Pyongyang with economic dividends.

Finally, the North Korean issue is not nearly as straightforward for the United States as it seems. Obviously, Washington is irritated by this unpredictable state that taunts it with nuclear tests, missile launches and cascades of new centrifuges. But in the long term, this East Asian outcast is very useful for America.
The main challenge of the United States in the next decade is to consolidate its positions in the Asia-Pacific region. This is official policy. Strategic rivalry with China is not yet inevitable but its likelihood is growing. It would be too provocative for Americans to challenge Beijing openly by encircling China (although the U.S. has obviously beefed up diplomacy in Vietnam, Myanmar and the rest of Southeast Asia). Moreover, tightly woven economic interdependence in the region prevents the U.S. from acting head on. In the meantime, the presence of an aggressive regime in the region, which deliberately reaffirms this reputation and frightens U.S. allies in the region, is a good pretext for consolidating alliances and building up military and political presence, from ground- and sea-based systems to missile defense.

Beijing would have been wise to moderate its North Korean client long ago by nudging them along the path to peaceful transformation. However, its not clear that China can do this. Everyone agrees that it is impossible to simply persuade the leadership in Pyongyang. The Western idea that Pyongyang might retreat if Beijing cuts or discontinues economic aid may be erroneous.

North Koreas leaders realize that their Chinese partners primarily want to avoid any escalation that might shift the status quo against Beijings interests. So, its not only America, Japan and South Korea that can be blackmailed through escalation, but China too.
By exerting pressure, Beijing risks provoking Pyongyang into a fit of aggression against Seoul or Tokyo, which could escalate U.S. involvement in the region and backfire against China. Paradoxically, the extremely complicated relations between Asian states, which define the contours of an intense rivalry in the future, are what guarantee the survival of this anachronistic regime the spawn of a bygone era and a failed ideology.
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There are many interesting points in Fyodor Lukyanov's article.

I have to stress that a nuclear North Korea is a threat to all countries, not to mention those in the region -- the US, Japan, Russia and even China. It is obvious that it won't do any good for Russia to have more and more nuclear states in its proximity.

It is certainly no comfort for the US, Europe, Australia and other Western nations if the "unruly teenager" could send nuclear missiles all the way to their soils.

North Korea could be another Vietnam to turn its guns back on China. If relations with China turn sour in the future, it won't be surprise to find North Korea throw a few nuclear bombs at China. It is akin to a sorcerer signing an unholy pact with the Devil who will return to haunt him in the future.

There may be many South Koreans who feel the pride of associating with a Korean nuclear bomb. However, the chance of a second Korean War is high, and when it happens, the two regions on the Korean Peninsula will turn to rubble. South Korea's economic progress would disappear overnight in the event of a war. As shown in the Korean War, North Korea will show no mercy to its southern compatriots whether they support the communist regime.

Please read the latest news on the failure of North Korea's rocket launch: http://www.politicalforum.com/showthread.php?t=243474

North Korea acting out like 'unruly teenagers': Clinton
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iFs3JUIO-FGOAPh1Ph7CSCppWDvQ

reedak · Apr 13, 2012

EvilAztec said: ↑

....When the Soviet Union broke apart 20 years ago and the Juche regime was left without material aid, almost everyone believed that it was doomed to an early end. Its collapse was expected in 1994 when its permanent leader Kim Il-sung died, to be succeeded by his son, regarded as a playboy who was not up to the task of ruling the country. Power has once again changed hands, with the great leader’s grandson now at the helm. He is young and inexperienced, and he is also not expected to last long in his post. It will be interesting to see what he can achieve in the next several years....
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Like his father who was regarded as a playboy "not up to the task of ruling the country", this "young and inexperienced" guy could, to the surprise of many people, "last long in his post". He just has to follow his father's road map in building up the country's nuclear arsenal. He may behave unpredictably to show that he is fit for his father's shoes.

EvilAztec said: ↑

.....Fourth, practically nobody is interested in Korean unification. Pyongyang has long stopped dreaming of expansion; it is too busy making an all-out bid to survive....
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In my opinion, North Korea's short-term goal is survival, but its long-term goal is the unfinished job of the Korean War -- unification with the South under the rule of the Kim Dynasty or at least, the communist regime. This explains its unwavering pursuit of nuclear weapons. In order to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, the US may eventually accept Korean unification under the terms of a democratic government, but the North will definitely insist on its own terms of unification. It is doubtful whether North Korea will ever surrender its nuclear weapons because they would be too advanced and tempting for the communist regime to give up.

EvilAztec said: ↑

.....Finally, the North Korean issue is not nearly as straightforward for the United States as it seems. Obviously, Washington is irritated by this unpredictable state that taunts it with nuclear tests, missile launches and cascades of new centrifuges. But in the long term, this East Asian outcast is very useful for America.....
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Like China, the US would find North Korea both a benefit and a liability. A nuclear North Korea with ballistic missile capability would definitely be a threat to the US. A nuclear North Korea that successfully defies the US and other nuclear powers will tempt and encourage other smaller countries to follow its footsteps in acquiring nuclear weapons. Currently, Iran is a good example.

EvilAztec said: ↑

......Beijing would have been wise to moderate its North Korean client long ago by nudging them along the path to peaceful transformation. However, it’s not clear that China can do this....
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As China is so obsessed with using North Korea as a buffer state, it will prop up and defend the North Korean regime at all costs. Thus China is held hostage by North Korea, and could only call for "restraint" whenever the "unruly teenager' causes mischief.

EvilAztec said: ↑

......Paradoxically, the extremely complicated relations between Asian states, which define the contours of an intense rivalry in the future, are what guarantee the survival of this anachronistic regime – the spawn of a bygone era and a failed ideology.
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.....Paradoxically, the extremely complicated relations between Asian states, which define the contours of an intense rivalry in the future, are what guarantee the survival of this anachronistic regime – the spawn of a bygone era and a failed ideology - pursuing a brilliant strategy of calculated risk and bold brinkmanship.

EvilAztec · Apr 14, 2012

Not quite true. Do not forget that Kim Jong-un is not ruled by N.Korea but the people in military uniforms who always stay behind, in the shade .They are a Real Power of N.Korea. Kim is a kind of folding screen in other words he is frontpage. These people manage N.Korea, and these people have made the wrong choice. Kim looks like as a quite shy teenager ... Boat of power in N.Korea beginning to lose stability ... All around thought that in N.Korea permanent famine, but it is not quite true.
In that country thriving shadow market that is a sign of fatigue regime . Because the Power realized that is the only way to avoid a revolution. By the way, How many American tourists been in N.Korea?
Russian tourists often visit that Country .

waltky · Oct 26, 2012

Granny wants to know what dey doin', what's goin' on?...

North Korea's leader still a mystery
October 24th, 2012 - The United States and South Korea still have no clear insight on the new leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, nearly a year after he replaced his father.

"We still don't know whether or not he will follow in the footsteps of his father, or whether he represents a different kind of leadership for the future," U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta admitted Wednesday. Panetta made the comment at a news conference on Wednesday after security talks with his South Korean counterpart. The meetings included discussion of North Korea's young leader, who succeeded his father, Kim Jong Il, after his death in 2011.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said the actual regime "seems to be quite stable," and there is hope Kim Jong Un would "try to introduce new economic reform measures to make a better life for the people" of North Korea. But the defense minister admitted he was also unsure what path North Korea's leader would take, and he warned that given Kim Jong Un's young age, it could mean bolder actions by the North Korean government. He described Kim as "young, meaning he may be a lot more aggressive compared to old people." Kim is believed to be 29.

Panetta once again called North Korea "defiant and provocative," as he has before, and said he was concerned over its plans to conduct a third nuclear weapons test. Kim Kwan-jin added that North Korea has been making preparations for this third test "for quite a long time." Although he did not say Pyongyang had decided to proceed, he added "it may in fact resort to this third nuclear test."

Speaking with Kim Kwan-jin by his side, Panetta said, "North Korea remains a threat to both of our nations, and a serious threat to regional and global stability." He accused the Pyongyang of defying international rules by continuing to enrich uranium. North Korea conducted nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 but has not conducted a test this year despite its threats.

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What is going on inside North Korea?
October 25th, 2012 - In the famously opaque world of North Korean politics, the ongoing leadership transition is in some ways proving more dagger than cloak with reports of executions and purges of top military officials in recent days.

South Korean newspapers this week reported on the execution of Kim Chol, North Korea's vice minister of the North Korean military, and other senior military officials earlier this year for drinking liquor during the mourning period for former leader Kim Jong Il. Kim's son, Kim Jong Un, who is the new leader of North Korea, has overseen purges of other former leaders from the military ranks for being involved in sex scandals the reports also said. "Contrary to what might be the popular perception that there is a smooth transition going on from the father to the son, these reports show there is still a lot of churn going on inside the system," Victor Cha, a former Korea specialist on the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, told CNN.

For Cha, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the moves under way in North Korea may signal a shift in leadership styles for the new young leader. "All these actions being taken against the military by (Kim Jong Un) clearly show that they are trying to take some power away from the military, and give it back to (the ruling) party," Cha said.

Under Kim Jong Il, North Korea followed a "military first" policy in which the military was given a lot of business concessions, and had a financial stake in many sectors of the North Korean economy such as mining, and its relations with China. In a country suffering chronic food shortages and famine, the military has also benefited from the government's diversion of food aid to the military ranks.

North Korea watchers were taken somewhat by surprise earlier this year when Ri Yong Ho, a senior general in the North Korean military, was purged from his high position. Ri, the key military figure visibly near Kim Jong Un in the days following his father's death in December, was seen by many to have been one of the generals Kim Jong Il designated to guide his son through the leadership transition. Analysts who follow the situation closely see a possible situation in the works where the new leader is attempting to bring the ruling Workers Party back to a position of economic prominence in the country much like his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, the country's founder. But pulling that off successfully may pose a challenge for the younger Kim.

More http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/25/what-is-going-on-inside-north-korea/
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reedak · Oct 26, 2012

waltky said: ↑

Granny wants to know what dey doin', what's goin' on?...

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Granny can find out the secret by peeping into the bedroom, but hopefully the goin' on won't be interrupted midway especially if they find a monkey staring through the window on Halloween day.

waltky · Feb 14, 2013

Granny says purt soon dey gonna be flingin' one o' dem missiles over here...

Report: North Korea upgrading rocket launch site
February 14, 2013 WASHINGTON — North Korea is upgrading one of its two major missile launch sites, apparently to handle much bigger rockets, and some design features suggest it is getting help from Iran, a U.S. research institute said Thursday.

A successful satellite launch in December, and a nuclear test on Tuesday, both in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions, have intensified concern that North Korea is moving toward its goal of building a bomb small enough to be fitted on an intercontinental missile. An analysis written for 38 North, the website of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, indicates that North Korea has made significant progress since October in constructing a new launchpad and other facilities at Tonghae, on the country's northeast coast. The assessment is based on commercial satellite photos, the latest taken in January.

It says design features, including a flame trench covering that protects large rockets from the hot exhaust gases they emit on takeoff, is similar to one at a launch complex in Semnan, Iran, and hasn't been used by the North before. The analysis also identifies activity at an older launchpad at Tonghae, last used for a long-range rocket in 2009, but says it's unclear if that indicates preparations for another launch there. The North's most recent long-range launches - a failed attempt to put a satellite into space atop an Unha-2 rocket in April, then a successful effort in December - were conducted at a newer site, Sohae, on the west coast.

38 North estimates that construction at Tonghae's new launch pad could be completed by 2016. It says tanks installed last fall into support buildings that would be used to store fuel propellant prior to a launch would be big enough for rockets three or four times larger than the Unha. Assessing the intentions of North Korea's secretive regime and the nation's technical capabilities is notoriously difficult. Analysts doubt the North has yet mastered how to miniaturize a nuclear device to mount on a long-range missile and attain its goal of being able to directly threaten the United States. "This analysis is just another piece of the puzzle indicating North Korea's intention to field increasingly capable long-range missiles able to carry nuclear warheads," said Joel Wit, a former State Department official and editor of 38 North.

He said it hinted at "the cozy relationship between the North and Iran as both move forward with developing weapons of mass destruction." U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Wednesday drew a direct connection between North Korea and Iran, saying both cases demonstrated the need for international resolve against proliferation threats. He did not touch on whether they could be cooperating on missile and nuclear development.

Source
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Seoul has missile capable of hitting N Korean leaders
Fri, Feb 15, 2013 - South Korea yesterday unveiled a cruise missile that it said can hit the office of North Korea’s leaders, trying to address concerns that it is technologically behind its unpredictable rival, which this week conducted its third nuclear test.

South Korean officials declined to say the exact range of the missile, but said it could hit targets anywhere in North Korea. The Defense Ministry released video footage of the missiles being launched from destroyers and submarines striking mock targets. The weapon was previewed in April last year and officials said deployment was now complete. “The cruise missile being unveiled today is a precision-guided weapon that can identify and strike the window of the office of North Korea’s leadership,” ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said told reporters.

North Korea has forged ahead with long-range missile development, launching a rocket in December last year that put a satellite into orbit. The North’s ultimate aim, Washington believes, is to design an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead that could hit the US. North Korea, which accuses the US and its “puppet,” South Korea, of war-mongering on an almost daily basis, is likely to respond angrily to South Korea flexing its muscles.

North Korea carried out its third nuclear test on Tuesday, drawing condemnation from around the world. The test and the threat of more unspecified actions from Pyongyang have raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula as the South prepares to inaugurate a new president on Feb. 25. “The situation prevailing on the Korean Peninsula at present is so serious that even a slight accidental case may lead to an all-out war which can disturb the whole region,” North Korea’s official KCNA news agency said.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2013/02/15/2003554919
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reedak · Feb 20, 2013

waltky said: ↑

Granny says purt soon dey gonna be flingin' one o' dem missiles over here...

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Grandpa says purt soon dey gonna be flingin' one o' dem missiles over China too...

"Some in Beijing, recalling China’s past history with Russia and Vietnam, worry that North Korean nuclear weapons might even one day pose a threat to China."

Please read the article headlined "Global Insights: Parsing China’s North Korea Policy" at http://missilethreat.com/global-insights-parsing-chinas-north-korea-policy/

waltky · Mar 11, 2013

Granny says dat lil' Kim is cruisin' fer a bruisin'...

North Korea annuls pacts with South, cuts hotline
March 8, 2013 North Korea said Friday that it was scrapping a non-aggression pact and all other agreements aimed at easing tensions with South Korea and severing their emergency hotline.

The announcement in state media was released a day after the UN Security Council imposed more sanctions on the communist country over its third nuclear test and North Korea threatened the United States with a pre-emptive nuclear strike. Pyongyang "abrogates all agreements on non-aggressions reached between the North and the South," state media quoted the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea as saying.

The communications channel set up in the border village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone would be cut immediately, a committee statement said. "This channel can no longer perform its mission due to the prevailing grave situation," it said. The tone from North Korea has become increasingly belligerent since the international condemnation of its February 12 nuclear test. On Wednesday, it threatened to revoke the armistice that ended the 1950-53 Korean War. In 2009, North Korea also declared that all reconciliation agreements between it and its capitalist neighbor were void.

The two countries signed a non-aggression pact in 1991 that called for the peaceful settlement of their disagreements and the prevention of military clashes. North Korea's rhetoric has risen with the more recent tensions. On Friday, it called joint US-South Korean military exercises now being conducted "open acts of aggression" and "a vivid expression of wanton violation of all the agreements on non-aggression reached between the North and the South." "The frozen North-South relations have gone so far beyond the danger line that they are no longer repairable and an extremely dangerous situation is prevailing on the Korean Peninsula, where a nuclear war may break out right now," the committee statement read.

http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/north-korea-annuls-pacts-with-south-cuts-hotline-1.211009
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North Korea stops answering hotline with South
March 11, 2013 As threatened, North Korea stopped answering a two-way hotline in the Demilitarized Zone on Monday, symbolically marking its decision to no longer recognize the armistice that ended the Korean War almost 60 years ago.

However, South Koreas Ministry of Unification said the North still is using a separate military communication line to process the 1,000 South Koreans who commute regularly across the DMZ to the Kaesong Industrial Complex, where they work with 40,000 North Koreans despite a recent flurry of threats from both countries to wipe each other off the map. Technically, officials say, one country cannot unilaterally void the armistice that has, with mixed results, governed the fragile peace on the peninsula since it was signed July 27, 1953. U.S. Forces Korea downplayed the DMZ hotline going dead.

In response to the Norths threats to that effect last week, USFK spokeswoman Jennifer Buschick said, Reports of [North Korea] cutting off communications are not unusual, and are frequently experienced during exercise periods. When we place a call on the direct phone line and [North Korea] does not answer, we have no way of knowing if [the North] has actually disconnected the phone line or are just not answering the phone, she said.

The latest round of threats from North Korea was prompted by the U.N. Security Councils decision to slap additional sanctions on the rogue country for its third nuclear test on Feb. 12, and the U.S. and South Korean militaries largest annual joint exercises, involving thousands of troops. Monday was the start of Key Resolve, the second of the two overlapping exercises. Despite allied assurances the exercises were defensive in nature, North Korean officials have labeled Foal Eagle and Key Resolve as provocative practices for an attack on the cloistered country, and violations of the armistice.

By no longer recognizing the pact, a pro-North website said, This means that [North Korea] is no longer bound by the armistice or the [North-South] pacts and is free to strike back at the U.S. imperialists and South Korean puppets at any time. Despite the bluster, the North has on a number of occasions in recent years dismissed the armistice as a meaningless piece of paper. It has repeatedly shown little allegiance to the spirit of the pact. In 2010, North Korea sank a South Korean warship and launched an artillery attack on an island just south of the maritime border between the two countries, leaving 50 people dead.

Source
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reedak · Mar 11, 2013

waltky said: ↑

Granny says dat lil' Kim is cruisin' fer a bruisin'...

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Grandpa says dat untamed dog may lead its idiotic master by the nose to the edge of the abyss...

waltky · Mar 13, 2013

No. Korea's threat is it's unpredictability...

US officials say North Korea poses serious threat
March 12, 2013 WASHINGTON An unpredictable North Korea, with its nuclear weapons and missile programs, stands as a serious threat to the United States and East Asia nations, the director of National Intelligence warned Tuesday in a sober assessment of worldwide threats.

Testifying before a Senate panel, James R. Clapper delivered the U.S. intelligence community's overview of global threats posed by terrorism, cyber attacks, weapons of mass destruction, the months-long civil war in Syria and the unsettled situation in post-Arab Spring nations.

The outlook on North Korea comes as the communist regime announced that it was "completely scrapping" the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War and has maintained peace on the peninsula for more than half a century. The Obama administration on Monday slapped new sanctions against North Korea's primary exchange bank and several senior government officials as it expressed concern about the North's "bellicose rhetoric." "The Intelligence community has long assessed that, in Pyongyang's view, its nuclear capabilities are intended for deterrence, international prestige and coercive diplomacy. We do not know Pyongyang's nuclear doctrine or employment concepts," Clapper told the Senate Intelligence Committee. "Although we assess with low confidence that the North would only attempt to use nuclear weapons against U.S. forces or allies to preserve the Kim regime, we do not know what would constitute, from the North's perspective, crossing that threshold."

Look, new wifey-poo, see me with all my army buddies?

North Korea, led by its young leader Kim Jong Un, has defied the international community in the last three months, testing an intercontinental ballistic missile and a third nuclear bomb. Pressed on North Korea, Clapper said he was "very concerned about the actions of the new young leader." He described the talk emanating from Pyongyang as "very belligerent." "The rhetoric, while propaganda-laced, is an indicator of their attitude," Clapper said. Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, the general in charge of U.S. Strategic Command said he is "satisfied" that existing U.S. missile defenses can defend against a limited attack from North Korea. Air Force Gen. Robert Kehler also said he is confident the country is adequately defended from a limited attack by Iran, "although we are not in the most optimum posture to do that today."

In Syria, President Bashar Assad's inability to quash the uprising in his country increases the possibility that he will use chemical weapons against his people, Clapper said. "We assess that an increasingly beleaguered regime, having found its escalation of violence through conventional means inadequate, might be prepared to use chemical weapons against the Syrian people," he said. "In addition, groups or individuals in Syria could gain access to chemical weapons-related material."

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reedak · Mar 13, 2013

waltky said: ↑

No. Korea's threat is it's unpredictability...

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Don't be confused, old woman. Like the shepherd boy crying "Wolf", the "wolf" will arrive one day.

One way to find out whether the North Korean regime will launch a war in the future is to look at the economic development of the country. What is the point for the regime to develop the economy, to build houses, facilities, infrastructure, factories, amusement parks, etc. for its people if it knows that whatever it builds will be destroyed or perished in a war?

Kim Jong-un and his predecessors have/had the same mentality as Genghis Khan and Napoleon. For them, the lives of their people and soldiers bear no value. What is most important to them is to achieve their military goal at all costs. They do not hesitate to gamble away the lives of all their people in the battle fields.

If a second Korean War were to take place, South Korea will have more to lose than the North. Everything that the South Koreans have painfully and laboriously constructed since the end of the Korean War will be razed to the ground. On the other hand, the North Korean people will have nothing much to lose -- only their lives and the last clothes on their bodies.

In the Korean War (June 25, 1950 to July 27, 19530), more than 33,000 US soldiers died in the conflict, and 415,000 South Korean soldiers were killed. It is estimated that 2,000,000 North Koreans and Chinese died. If a second Korean War were to take place, the casualties on both sides would definitely be higher because of the use of modern and more powerful weapons of mass destruction such as missiles, aircraft, etc. besides not ruling out the use of nuclear weapons.

As seen in the regular pro-North Korea demonstrations in the South, there is no lack of admirers and supporters for the North Korean regime among the South Koreans. However, as shown in the heavy civilian casualties in the Korean War, the North Korean military will show no mercy to the South Koreans, whether they are supporters or not if they invade the South again.

Compared to his predecessors, the current North Korean leader is the most dangerous because of his youth. There are at least 50 years for him to harass the South and plan his military moves. In additioin, there is also the great temptation for him to leave his mark in history by making his final strike before entering the grave.

Only when North Korea voluntarily destroys its own nuclear weapons and moves on the road of economic development for the benefit of its own people, then we can be certain that the world is a safer place.

Casualties In Korean War
http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Korean+War+casualties

reedak · Mar 14, 2013

waltky said: ↑

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Thanks, grandma, for liking my post. Then I shall curse the North Korean regime more often.

waltky · Mar 29, 2013

What sequester?...

Air Force says B-2 mission over South Korea cost $2.1M
March 29, 2013 > The Air Force says it cost $2.1 million to send two nuclear-capable B-2 bombers on a training exercise over South Korea that was widely viewed as a show of force in response to weeks of threats from North Korea.

The service's Global Strike Command said Friday in a statement that the total flight time for the B-2s was 75 hours. The aircraft made the more than 6,500-mile round trip from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri to a South Korean island range on Thursday.

North Korea has threatened nuclear strikes on Washington and Seoul.

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said the decision to send the B-2s for drills with South Korea was part of normal military exercises with a close ally and not intended to provoke a reaction from North Korea.

http://www.stripes.com/news/air-force-says-b-2-mission-over-south-korea-cost-2-1m-1.214315
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Hagel: B-2s not intended to provoke North Korea
March 28, 2013 WASHINGTON -- America's unprecedented decision to send nuclear-capable B-2 stealth bombers to drop dummy munitions during military drills with South Korea this week was part of normal exercises and not intended to provoke a reaction from North Korea, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Thursday.

Hagel acknowledged, however, that North Korea's belligerent tones and actions in recent weeks have ratcheted up the danger in the region, "and we have to understand that reality." Speaking to Pentagon reporters, both Hagel and Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the B-2 bombers were a message intended more for allies than Pyongyang. "The North Koreans have to understand that what they're doing is very dangerous," Hagel said. "I don't think we're doing anything extraordinary or provocative or out of the ... orbit of what nations do to protect their own interests." The U.S., he added, must make it clear to South Korea, Japan and other allies in the region that "these provocations by the North are taken by us very seriously and we'll respond to that."

U.S. Forces Korea announced in a statement Thursday that two B-2 stealth bombers flew from an air base in Missouri and dropped dummy munitions on a South Korean island range before returning home. The Pentagon said this was the first time dummy munitions had been dropped over South Korea, but late Thursday said it was unclear whether there ever had been any B-2 flights there. The joint drills are likely to heighten the already escalating tensions between the U.S. and North Korea that have played out in recent weeks, including Pyongyang's threat to carry out nuclear strikes on Washington and Seoul. North Korea has ramped up its rhetoric in response to the recent U.S. military exercises and also the U.N. sanctions over North Korea's nuclear test last month.

Use of the stealthy B-2 bombers added something of an exclamation point to the training mission, which had already included older but also nuclear-capable B-52 bombers. "They're telling the North Koreans, we can attack you in ways in which you can see us coming, and we can also attack you potentially in ways in which you cannot see us coming," said retired Air Force Col. Cedric Leighton, a North Korean intelligence expert who served on the Joint Staff and the National Security Council. "So it's a message to the North Koreans that they have to be very careful how they proceed next with their military efforts and their political efforts. "

Asked if the U.S. has seen North Korea take any actual threatening military steps in response to the bombers, Dempsey said the North has moved some artillery units across the demilitarized zone from Seoul and some maritime units along the coasts. But so far, he said, "We haven't seen anything that would cause us to believe they are movements other than consistent with historic patterns and training exercises." The military drills are only the latest U.S. response to what officials see as a growing North Korean threat. The Pentagon is also planning to beef up its defenses against a potential North Korean missile attack on the U.S.

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waltky · Apr 1, 2013

Granny says, "You go, gurl...

South Korean President Vows Strong, Swift Military Response if North Provokes
April 01, 2013 In the continuing tit-for-tat exchange of rhetoric between the two Koreas, the president in Seoul has issued her toughest statement yet.

Park Geun-hye on Monday was quoted as telling her defense minister that There should be a strong response in initial combat without any political consideration," should there be any provocation against South Korea and its people. The statement comes a day after North Korea's leader laid down what he calls a new strategic line, saying that under no circumstances would North Korea's nuclear weapons be a bargaining chip in the political or economic arena. Kim Jong Un also vowed to expand the nuclear arsenal of the impoverished and isolated state. North Korea's rubber stamp legislature, the Supreme People's Assembly, was scheduled to meet Monday, but no details have been released by state media.

Pyongyang also makes strong warnings

North Korea has reacted vociferously in recent weeks to annual joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States. Those drills have included unusual demonstrations of U.S. air power, including simulated long-range bombing runs by B-52 and B-2 strategic bombers. A pair of U.S. Air Force F-22A Raptor jets from Kadena Air Base on the Japanese island of Okinawa on Sunday flew to Osan Air Base, 65 kilometers south of Seoul. The stealth fighters are participating in the Foal Eagle exercise.

South Korean marines are to stage four exercises together with the U.S. Marine Corps. The war games will include landings, and maneuvering of mechanized units. In the past weeks, Pyongyang declared the 1953 armistice invalid, vowed a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the U.S. mainland and American Pacific bases, cut a pair of hotlines with the South and then declared a state of war in effect. The combative rhetoric came after the United Nations Security Council approved additional sanctions on Pyongyang following last December's long-range rocket launch and February's nuclear test - the third by North Korea.

Washington, Seoul express concern

Despite the war talk from Pyongyang, which the White House says it takes seriously, there is no sense of panic in Seoul. But concern continues to rise, especially about Pyongyang's threat to stop operations at the only joint venture facility with the South. On Monday, operations were normal at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, just north of the demilitarized zone where hundreds of South Korean managers supervise small factories in which North Korean workers manufacture household goods. Analysts say an unprecedented closure of the facility would be an ominous sign as it is a significant source of desperately needed hard currency for the North.

http://www.voanews.com/content/koreas-tensions/1632252.html
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ANALYSIS: US playing with fire in N Korea policy: expert
Mon, Apr 01, 2013 - Soaring tensions on the Korean Peninsula have seen dire North Korean threats met with an unusually assertive US response that analysts warn could take a familiar game into dangerous territory.

By publicly highlighting its recent deployment of nuclear-capable B-52 and stealth bombers over South Korea, Washington has at times almost appeared to be purposefully goading an already apoplectic Pyongyang. There certainly seems to be an element of lets show were taking the gloves off this time about the US stance, said Paul Carroll, program director at the Ploughshares Fund, a US-based security policy think tank. The North has responded in kind, declaring on Saturday that it is now in a state of war with South Korea. Security crises on the Korean Peninsula have come and gone over the decades and have tended to follow a similar pattern of white-knuckle brinkmanship that threatens, but finally pulls back from catastrophic conflict.

North Korean founding leader Kim Il-sung and his son and successor Kim Jong-il were both considered skilled practitioners of this high-stakes game of who-blinks-first diplomacy. They ensured that Pyongyang had enough form to lend its threats credibility, having engineered provocations that ranged from blowing up a South Korean civilian airliner in 1987 to shelling a South Korean island in 2010. The current crisis, with Pyongyang lashing out at a combination of a new round of UN sanctions and South Korea-US military exercises, diverges from precedent in terms of the context and the main characters involved. It follows the two landmark events that triggered the UN sanctions and redrew the strategic balance on the peninsula: the Norths successful long-range rocket launch in December last year and its third and largest nuclear test in February this year.

Both may have emboldened North Korea to overplay its hand, while at the same time prompting Washington to decide there was already too much at stake to consider folding. Rhetorical salvos are one thing, while rocket launches and nuclear tests are quite another, Carroll said. In addition, both North and South Korea have new, untested leaders with a strong domestic motivation to prove their mettle in any showdown. Bruce Klingner, a Korea expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington, believes the danger of miscalculation is especially high from young North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Kim Jong-un was not only emboldened by the successful rocket and nuclear tests, but also by the knowledge that Seoul and Washington have never struck back in any significant way after previous deadly attacks.

However, this time around, South Korea has signaled it would respond with interest, and the message sent by the B-52 and stealth bomber flights is that it has the US firmly in its corner. Peter Hayes, who heads the Nautilus Institute, an Asia-focused think tank, said that the B-52 deployment carried a particular and potentially dangerous resonance. After a bloody border incident in 1976 left two US soldiers dead, the US spent weeks sending B-52 flights up the Korean Peninsula, veering off just before they entered the Norths air space. Then-US secretary of state Henry Kissinger said that he had never seen the North Koreans so scared. Hayes warned that replaying the B-52 threat could prove to be strategically stupid by reviving the Norths historic and deep-rooted fear of a US nuclear strike.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2013/04/01/2003558532
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EvilAztec · Apr 19, 2014

For remember

waltky · May 11, 2016

Keepin' it in the family no matter how many have to starve...

North Korea plans gilded mausoleum renovation despite food shortage
May 9, 2016 - North Korean farmers are being left with the burden of adapting to difficult realities.

North Korea continues to struggle with a decline in food production, but that hasn't stopped Pyongyang from planning a lavish renovation of the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun. North Korea's food shortage owing to an early drought in 2015 led to a reduction in rations, but Randall Ireson, who coordinated the American Friends Service Committee agricultural program in North Korea between 1998 and 2007, said there has been "substantial resilience" among North Korean farmers.

In an analysis on 38 North, a Johns Hopkins University website dedicated to North Korea issues, Ireson explained the drought that hit the North was later followed by a recovery in July and August. Rainfall was actually lower in early 2014 than 2015, Ireson wrote. Rice production, however, has not recovered. Using Food and Agriculture Organization statistics, Ireson said an underestimated 32,000 hectares of rice paddy had not been transplanted, but in response farmers planted corn and soybeans instead.

Both crops require much less water than rice, according to Ireson. The decline in rice production poses challenges to the vast majority of North Koreans who live at a basic subsistence level. The FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System officer in charge of East Asia, Cristina Coslet, has said Pyongyang reduced official rations to 370 grams daily per person, well below the U.N. recommended amount of 600 grams daily per person.

While livelihoods are at stake, the Kim Jong Un regime is prioritizing a less pressing task: the renovation of the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun with gold leaf. Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun reported Monday the plan is to add a layer of gold leaf to the roof and decorate the building with crystal beads. The structure serves as the mausoleum for the late Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. The General Association of Korean Residents in Japan, a pro-Pyongyang group, has been asked to raise $230,000 for the project, a source told the Asahi.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...te-food-shortage/8121462818374/?spt=sec&or=tn
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Kim Jong Un promotes younger sister after congress
May 10, 2016 - Kim Yo Jong is taking on more responsibilities.

Kim Jong Un's younger sister has been appointed to the central committee of the Korean Workers' Party. Kim Yo Jong, who is believed to be 28, already holds positions of power in the North Korean government, and is frequently seen by her brother's side during state trips around the country. She is reportedly the deputy director of the Workers' Party and handles top priorities on behalf of North Korea's propaganda department. Kim Yo Jong made her political debut in March 2014, when her name was mentioned following the election results of the Supreme People's Assembly, Yonhap reported.

Her rise to power is drawing comparisons to the rise then demise of her aunt Kim Kyong Hui, who went missing after her husband, Jang Sung Taek, was executed on charges of treason and corruption in late 2013. As Kim Jong Il's sister, Kim Kyong Hui was a trusted confidante who was appointed a member of the party when she was in her early 40s, at a later stage in life than Kim Yo Jong. Kim Kyong Hui's name has been missing from a list of North Korean Cabinet members since December.

Kim Yo Jong was seen Tuesday in Kim Il Sung Square, on stage with her brother to observe a military rally, according to South Korea press. The younger Kim was seen collecting bouquets of flowers on behalf of her brother a sign that could mean her role in the regime is changing. In previous appearances, Kim was seen walking a few steps behind her brother, or even at a farther distance.

Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul, said Kim Yo Jong is likely to play a more important role in the years ahead. Political changes are sweeping across the North Korean landscape after the Seventh Party Congress. Another development that affects senior officials is a change in official titles, South Korean news service News 1 reported. Pyongyang's state newspaper Rodong Sinmun announced that the title of "secretary" is to be abolished and to be replaced with a new title vice chairman.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...r-after-congress/8381462892814/?spt=sec&or=tn
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Missing North Korea military chief not executed, source says
May 10, 2016 - Ri Yong Gils name reappeared on a list issued by North Korea.

Ri Yong Gil, the North Korean military chief believed to have been executed by Kim Jong Un, is alive and in office. Ri, who was the army's No. 3 man, appeared to have been demoted. He was mentioned in a report published in North Korea's state newspaper Rodong Sinmun. In the message issued Tuesday that included results from the Seventh Party Congress, a list of Politburo members included Ri's name 10th in a roster of senior North Korean officials.

Ri was the North Korea equivalent of chairman of the joint chiefs of staff prior to the demotion, South Korean newspaper Donga Ilbo reported. Since fully assuming power in 2012, Kim has ordered the execution of his uncle-in-law Jang Sung Taek in 2013, and likely executed his defense minister, Hyon Yong Chol, in 2015. Ri was appointed army chief in 2013, but was missing from state events celebrating the Lunar New Year and the Feb. 6 satellite launch, although Korean People's Army Vice Marshal Hwang Pyong So and top politician Pak Yong Sik had been present at the events.

The demotion and return to office could mean Ri had been purged then rehabilitated, according to a source at Seoul's unification ministry. Ri could still be out of favor with Kim, however. "The fact that Ri's name was 10th on the list issued by the Central Committee of the army is a sign that he has fallen in the ranks," the unidentified source said. It's likely Ri had spent some time at a prison camp, the source added. Since Kim assumed power, the North Korean leader has purged three out of four chiefs of staff.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...uted-source-says/2541462886302/?spt=sec&or=tn
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waltky · May 18, 2016

Granny says must be near where dey testin' dem abomic toms...

North Korea keeps secret base for ICBMs, report says
May 17, 2016 - North Koreas long-range rockets are being stored in a rugged mountain region.

North Korea could be maintaining a base for its intercontinental ballistic missiles in a north-central region of the country. Satellite images from military journal Jane's Defense Weekly showed Pyongyang has an advanced base where the country's KN-08 long-range rockets are kept, South Korean news network Channel A reported Tuesday. The area known as Yongrim in North Korea's Jagang Province is a place more than a thousand meters above sea level surrounded by rugged mountain peaks.

The location is home to a North Korean underground hangar where Pyongyang most likely keeps KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missiles. The weapons could be fired from three different passageways, according to the report. The images also indicated two factories are nearby where road mobile launchers are being manufactured.

The hangar entrance faces north, and on the south side S-75 surface-to-air missiles have been installed. South Korean military officials have continued to capture images of North Korea's KN-08 ICBMs. At about three to four locations along the China-North Korea border, a North Korean brigade affiliated with a strategic military unit has been positioned, the South's officials say.

Yang Uk, a senior fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said that the moves could be being made to increase Pyongyang's national security as they are tracked by China and Russia air defense surveillance. Seoul is also developing defense measures. South Korea's navy has begun full-scale assembly operations on the 3,000-ton heavy attack submarine Jangbogo-III, local newspaper Kyunghyang Shinmun reported Tuesday. The Jangbogo-III can launch ballistic missiles. The submarine is to be deployed by 2020.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...CBMs-report-says/2931463505728/?spt=sec&or=tn
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Christian pastor aiding North Koreans killed in 'retaliation,' source says
May 17, 2016 - A North Korean source said state security is trying to dodge blame for the group defection of restaurant workers.

A band of "gangsters" killed a Christian pastor who assisted North Korean defectors in China, according to a source in North Korea. The incident was an act of "retaliation" for the defection of 13 North Korean restaurant workers in China, the source told South Korean news service Daily NK. North Korea has claimed the defectors were "dragged" against their will to the South, and that they were "kidnapped" by South Korean intelligence agents. A South Korean activist group has also said North Korean agents cross into China to track down defectors and their helpers.

The Korean-Chinese pastor Han Chungryeol was the founder of Jangbaek Church in Jilin in 1993. As part of his work, he provided assistance to North Koreans in China. Activists in the South have said Han was murdered on April 30, less than a month after 12 North Korean waitresses and their manager fled a state-run restaurant in Ningbo. According to Daily NK's source, North Korea state security is trying to skirt blame for the group defection, and is recruiting thugs and deploying undercover agents posing as defector's relatives and border traders in order to penetrate the activities of human rights activists and missionaries in the region.

North Korea's Reconnaissance General Bureau is deploying young agents overseas, the source added. Pyongyang is probably planning to abduct South Korean nationals, particularly those affiliated with the military and the government, as well as human rights activists, so that an exchange could be made for the 13 defectors, the source said. A South Korean Christian minister has gone missing, and according to a South Korean report, the minister, who was also a defector, could have been kidnapped to North Korea.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...tion-source-says/1551463498069/?spt=sec&or=tn
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And...

North Koreans assembling clothes for leading U.S brands in China
May 17, 2016 ) -- North Korean laborers are stitching clothes for U.S. labels like Calvin Klein, Burberry and Levi's in China, according to a report.

A source in northeastern China told Radio Free Asia a large number of North Koreans are working for Chinese manufacturers with factories not far from the North Korea border. One of the Chinese firms, Mei Dao Garment Company Limited, hires hundreds of North Koreans, according to the source. Mei Dao began employing North Korean personnel, 54 in total, between January and July 2012. The source also said in April 2015 the Chinese business began collaborating with North Korea's Ryugyong Mokdan Trading Company to build the Dandong Miryong Garment Company.

Another plant located near the Chinese border city of Dandong, the Phoenix Gold Company Limited, employs about 1,200 workers, and 800 of those laborers are from North Korea, the source said. Chinese subcontractors hire North Koreans because they provide low-wage labor. Another source at the China-North Korea border told RFA Chinese manufacturers that receive "a lot of orders" from the United States, Europe and Japan, are hiring North Korean workers in significant numbers. The orders are from popular U.S. and other multinational brands. North Korean workers aren't necessarily concentrated in the apparel industries.

A third source in China said a company in Hunan Province that supplies corporations like Apple and Nokia with smartphone glass includes North Koreans in its workforce, the source said. A South Korean think tank has estimated North Korea deploys at least 50,000 people overseas. Most are involuntary laborers who earn up to $300 million for the Kim Jong Un regime, according to the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights in Seoul. Workers often retain 10 percent or less of their income, after giving the rest to the regime, NKDB has stated.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...-brands-in-China/5021463541893/?spt=sec&or=tn
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waltky · May 25, 2016

Lil' Kim soon to be standin' inna soup line?...

Retired USFK Head: North Korea Collapse May Happen Sooner
May 25, 2016 -- Instability within North Korea will lead to its collapse "sooner than many of us think," a former U.S. Forces Korea commander says.

Retired four-star Gen. Walter Sharp was among five panelists Tuesday who opened a three-day symposium, sponsored by the Association of the U.S. Army's Institute of Land Warfare, on strengthening land forces across the Pacific. North Korea garnered most of the panel's attention, driven by the volatile nation's uptick in missiles launches and its fourth nuclear test earlier this year. Sharp, who headed USFK in 2008-11, said he recently guaranteed Gen. Vincent Brooks, the newly minted USFK commander, there would be major changes on the peninsula before his tenure ends. "First off, I believe there will be strong provocations, strong attacks by North Korea that could quickly escalate into a much bigger conflict," Sharp said. "Secondly, there will be instability in North Korea that I believe will lead to the collapse of North Korea much sooner than many of us think."

There's long been speculation about how long the regime can continue to hold power in a country riddled with serial famines, drought, draconian punishments, poor medical care and an ever-increasing regimen of United Nations sanctions. Some analysts believe the North needs only one more jolt before it tumbles, while others say it has muddled through worse times in the past. Sharp said North Korea's economy "is clearly not meeting the needs of the people of North Korea," a situation exacerbated after China, the country's biggest trading partner, joined the most recent round of harsh UN sanctions. North Korea is attempting to build nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities while fostering a civilian economy. "We're all pretty convinced that that's not going to work," Sharp said.

Combine that with North Korean citizens who are gaining more outside access through cellphones and broadcasts, and there is "growing internal pressure within North Korea that will force either the regime to change or to change the regime," he said. Planning for what happens after the North's collapse must begin now, Sharp said. "What are we going to do with the North Korean military?" he asked. "How are we going to be able to provide stability and security in a collapse scenario within North Korea? We need to have those discussions; we need to have the training and capability as we move forward. "I think we also need to work very hard to plan and exercise for this collapse scenario," he said.

Both the U.N. and China could have work to do in the event of regime collapse, Sharp said. "I could see a role for the United Nations along the border between what is now North Korea and China, doing border control there, perhaps with China as the lead of that UN command up there," he said. Lt. Gen. Thomas L. Vandal, 8th Army commander in South Korea, told the audience "the pace of change has been exponential over the past three or four years on both sides of the [Demilitarized Zone]." "From the balloon launches (of propaganda leaflets), the propaganda broadcasts, mission-boat activities and exchanges along the DMZ, we face a high risk of miscalculation and escalation," he said.

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waltky · Sep 22, 2016

Sanction where the money leads to...

To Curb North Korea's Nuclear Program, Follow the Money
9/22/16 - North Koreas fifth nuclear test on September 9 sparked a new round of questions about how to contain this rapidly growing threat. Like clockwork, the United States and its northeast Asian allies are already preparing another dose of sanctions.

Most U.S. defense experts believe that a military response against North Korea would quickly escalate to open conflict with massive casualties. Instead, the world community has responded to North Koreas nuclear and missile tests in recent years by constantly tightening economic and political sanctions on Pyongyang. Since North Koreas first nuclear test in October 2006, the United Nations Security Council has adopted five resolutions designed to deny North Korea access to components for its nuclear and missile programs.

Researchers check the seismic waves that were measured in South Korea at the Earthquake and Volcano Monitoring Division on September 9, 2016 in Seoul, South Korea. North Korea is suspected of carrying out its fifth nuclear test, after a magnitude 5.3 earthquake was detected close to its Punggye-ri test site.

But many security experts question whether these sanctions have been effective. In a new study, my MIT colleague Jim Walsh and I examined how what we call North Korea Inc.the regimes network of companies tasked with procurementhas learned to evade sanctions. We interviewed former North Korean business managers now residing in Seoul, South Korea, who bought components for the regimes nuclear and missile programs. Our findings highlight how increasing the dosage of sanctions has, in practice, triggered the development of alternative, more effective procurement channels. This doesnt mean we should drop all sanctions. Rather, we need to target them more effectively, based on an improved understanding of how North Korea Inc. has learned how to evade them.

The key role of Chinese middlemen

To evade international sanctions, North Korean business managers embed themselves in commercial hubs in China, their countrys largest trading partner, and work with local business middlemen. These middlemen charge their North Korean clients a fee to purchase dual-use technologiesitems that can be used for either civilian or military purposes, such as industrial equipment and components. Interviewing former North Korean managers was striking because they made these purchases sound like normal business transactions. They largely spoke about the challenges and opportunities of operating in a particular local market in Asia, much as expatriate businessmen would describe dealing with a regional chamber of commerce. It became clear that the tacit knowledge that resides in these networks was critical to North Korean managers effectiveness.

Unha-9 rocket model on display at floral exhibition, Pyongyang

As sanctions have become tougher, these local Chinese middlemen have charged higher fees to reflect the elevated risk of doing business with North Korean clients. Instead of hindering procurement activities, we found that sanctions have actually helped to attract more capable middlemen, who are drawn by the larger payday. The North Korean regime has financed the higher fees by drawing on substantial cash reserves that it amassed in accounts on the mainland during a boom in coal trade between North Korea and China in the late 2000s. Despite the expense, North Korean business managers use Chinese middlemen because they have two unique capabilities. First, these brokers have access to a wide array of foreign companies that produce dual-use equipment and industrial goods in China for the growing Chinese market. We found that it is straightforward for a North Korean manager to procure these items by using local Chinese companies. The headquarters of these European companies receive copies of records and certificates which show that their China branches are selling their products to Chinese entities, when in reality, these goods end up in North Korea.

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waltky · Jan 6, 2017

North Korean Nuclear, missile tests show 'qualitative' improvement...

Nuclear, missile tests show 'qualitative' improvement in North Korea capabilities: U.S.
Jan 05 2017 | WASHINGTON - The United States said on Thursday North Korea had demonstrated a "qualitative" improvement in its nuclear and missile capabilities after an unprecedented level of tests last year, showing the needed to sustain pressure on Pyongyang to bring it back to disarmament negotiations.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a joint news conference after a meeting with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts that North Korea had conducted 24 missile tests in the past year, as well as two nuclear tests, and learned from each one. "Even a so-called failure is progress because ... they apply what they have learned to their technology and to the next test. And in our assessment, we have a qualitative improvement in their capabilities in the past year as a result of this unprecedented level of activity," he said. "With every passing day the threat does get more acute," Blinken said, and referred to comments by North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, on Sunday that his country was close to test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) of a kind that could someday hit the United States.

Blinken said it was vital for the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries to boost cooperation to defend against the threat. "At the same time, it's absolutely vitally important that we exercise sustained, comprehensive pressure on North Korea to get it to stop these programs, to come back to the negotiating table, and to engage in good faith on denuclearization," Blinken said, referring to international sanctions. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump responded on Monday to Kim's comments on an ICBM test by declaring in a tweet that "It won't happen!" Experts say preventing such a test is far easier said than done, and Trump gave no indication what new steps he might take to roll back North Korea's weapons programs after he takes office on Jan. 20, something successive U.S. administrations, both Democratic and Republican, have failed to do.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches the Masikryong ski competition-2016 in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)

Former U.S. officials and other experts say the United States essentially had two options when it came to trying to curb North Korea's fast-expanding nuclear and missile programs - negotiate or take military action. Neither path offers certain success and the military option is fraught with huge dangers, especially for Japan and South Korea, given their close proximity to North Korea. Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Shinsuke Sugiyama said Tokyo was watching closely to see what kind of Asia policy Trump would follow, but did not expect major changes. "Will it be exactly the same as we have it now? I doubt it. But basically, I dont see the direction as changing in a significant way, he told the news conference, adding that the U.S. security treaties with Tokyo and Seoul were an important pillar of U.S. policy.

Blinken said an effective sanctions campaign required "determination" and "patience." "I believe that as long as we sustain it and build on it, it will have an effect," he said. In another tweet on Monday, Trump said North Korea's neighbor and only ally, China, was not helping to contain Pyongyang - despite Beijing's support for successive rounds of U.N. sanctions. Blinken said Washington had seen positive signs from China in recent weeks in implementing new restrictions on coal imports from North Korea, but added: "That needs to be sustained ... to be carried forward."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-japan-southkorea-idUSKBN14Q00R
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See also:

Kim Jong Un speech indicates more 'mass purges' for North Korea
Jan. 4, 2017 - A South Korean think tank report states Kims apologetic remarks could mean more dismissals of senior officials.

A speech Kim Jong Un gave on New Year's Day has been noted for its emphasis on North Korea's nuclear weapons program. But a more in-depth analysis of the statement shows Kim may be signaling readiness to engage in more purges of senior officials, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported Wednesday. Kim, who may have been responsible for a record number of purges and executions since fully assuming power after 2011, could be launching a "purification campaign," according to Seoul's Institute for National Security Strategy.

The signs came from Kim himself who made an unprecedented bow during the speech after saying he sends the "North Korean people warm greetings with a solemn heart and respectfully conveys the glory and blessings of a hopeful New Year." According to the South Korean government think tank, Kim's speech contained elements of "self-criticism" that warn of a campaign of purges, part of a larger plan to secure his goal of being recognized as a leader of a nuclear weapons state, despite heavy sanctions against the country.

During the speech, Kim said he blamed himself for the "pain and regret" owing to past failures and said that he did not have the "wherewithal" to meet his goals. According to the think tank report, the North Korean leader was partly motivated to show a new approach to policy as the population is "burdened by a chronic economic downturn, and complaints [about the regime] are reaching a climax."

But despite sanctions, Kim does not plan to give up on nuclear weapons development, the report states. It is likely, then, Kim is to resolve some of the domestic tension by pursuing "mass purges" of senior officials and "swamp draining." The speech is a forewarning, according to the report. The paper also states North Korea could engage in major provocations during annual U.S.-South Korea military drills around March and again in August or September.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...-for-North-Korea/1251483550218/?spt=sec&or=tn
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waltky · Jan 9, 2017

Granny don't think puttin' the genie back inna bottle gonna work...

Can North Korea's nuclear expansion be stopped?
10 January 2017 - When President Trump (as he will then be) enters the White House, he will have an item flashing as urgent in his email inbox: North Korea.

In the election campaign, he offered to sit down with the country's leader Kim Jong-un over a burger, but that generosity seems less likely now. Eight years ago, when President Obama moved in, the tone was similarly helpful. Right at the start of his tenure, the new president made a gesture of conciliation to the North Korean leader, not quite an offer of friendship but an indication that nose-to-nose threats need not be the way. In his inaugural address in 2009, President Obama said he would offer an outstretched hand to those who would "unclench their fists". A few months later, Kim Jong-un responded with the launch of a substantial, multi-stage rocket and an underground explosion of a nuclear device. Both tests were seen by the United Nations as a defiant contravention of the policy of the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.

People watch a news report on North Korea's first hydrogen bomb test on 6 January 6 2016

Some presidents talk tough but trip over realities. George W Bush said in 2006 that North Korea launching a long-range missile would be "unacceptable" - just before one was launched. A year earlier, he had said that "a nuclear armed Korea will not be tolerated." Yet, on all expert estimates, North Korea has made substantial progress in achieving that aim, of having a nuclear arsenal capable of devastating cities in the United States at very short notice. The ability is not there yet but many technology experts think it is getting there.

So the Obama (and Hillary Clinton) policy of strategic patience is giving way to louder talk of military impatience. The doctrine of squeezing North Korea with sanctions and waiting for change is being supplemented by military plans. South Korea said it was bringing forward plans to form army units trained to "decapitate" the regime - in plain English, to kill Kim Jong-un. The outgoing secretary of defence in Washington said that any test of a long-range missile which threatened the United States or its allies (South Korea and Japan) would result in it being shot down.

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See also:

Carter: US Would Target Threatening North Korean Missile
January 9, 2017 - The U.S. military would try to shoot down any North Korean missile deemed a threat to the country or its allies, the Pentagons top civilian said.

If it were coming if it were threatening to us, yes, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said on Sunday in response to a question from moderator Chuck Todd on NBCs Meet the Press show. That is, if its predicted to impact [the U.S. or] one of our friends or allies yes, we would shoot it down. The secretary seemed to suggest, however, the U.S. wouldnt target a test launch of a missile into the ocean. We only would shoot them down, and that is use an interceptive for that purpose, if it was threatening, he said. That is, if it were coming toward our territory or the territory of our friends and allies.

Rising Tensions

Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea have escalated over the past year amid the Norths increasing test of nuclear devices and ballistic missiles under the regime of Kim Jong-Un. In 2016 alone, North Korea tested a hydrogen bomb, submarine-launched ballistic missile, among other weapons in a spate of provocative demonstrations. Its working to develop a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile by 2018, officials have said. Also Sunday, the regime signaled it was prepared to launch an ICBM anytime and anywhere determined by the supreme headquarters, according to an unidentified spokesman for the Foreign Ministry.

North Korea's KN-14 (Hwasong-14) is a newer truck-launched type of intercontinental ballistic missile with an estimated range of as much as 12,000 kilometers -- a distance that stretches from North Korea to Florida.

The official said the country is developing the weapon to cope with the ever more undisguised nuclear war threat from the U.S., according to a statement published on the website of the state-run North Korean Central News Agency, or KNCA. The comments came a week after President-elect Donald Trump tweeted, North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It wont happen! While Trump has described the proliferation of nuclear weapons as a threat to national security, he has also said the U.S. would outmatch rivals in a nuclear arms race.

North Korean Missiles
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Space_Time · Jan 17, 2017

Here's more:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korean-defections-swell-as-political-elite-look-south-1484563973

WORLD ASIA
North Korean Defections Swell as Political Elite Look South
South Korea’s unification minister expects defections by members of Pyongyang’s elite to weaken regime
Hong Yong-pyo, South Korea's minister of unification says many North Koreans are leaving the country not just because they are starving, but because they want a better life.
Hong Yong-pyo, South Korea's minister of unification says many North Koreans are leaving the country not just because they are starving, but because they want a better life. PHOTO: SOUTH KOREAN MINISTRY OF UNIFICATION
By JONATHAN CHENG
Updated Jan. 16, 2017 5:50 p.m. ET
19 COMMENTS
SEOUL—More North Koreans are fleeing their country for political reasons, rather than economic reasons, and an increase in defections by Pyongyang’s elite will ultimately weaken Kim Jong Un’s regime, South Korea’s unification minister said in an interview.

Hong Yong-pyo, who heads the Ministry of Unification, expects to see more defectors like Thae Yong Ho, the North Korean deputy ambassador in London, whose defection to Seoul last year was the most high-profile in nearly two decades. The support of North Korea’s top government officials is crucial to ensuring Mr. Kim’s continued rule.

A crippling famine triggered the first major wave of defectors from North Korea about 20 years ago, but many now say that they are leaving the country “not just because they are starving, but for a better life, and for freedom and for their children’s education,” Mr. Hong said.

The cumulative number of defectors has swelled to more than 30,000, making them a sizable and growing community in the South. Last year, South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye urged North Koreans to defect to the south to seek a better life—an unprecedented call for any South Korean leader.

A looming change in government in Seoul could derail that approach. Ms. Park was recently impeached over an influence-peddling scandal and polls show a candidate supportive of warmer North-South ties is likely to take power soon. The progressive administrations that governed South Korea between 1998 and 2008 tended to take a more conciliatory view toward Pyongyang, and de-emphasized support for defectors.

But Mr. Hong said the political divide over support for defectors is long gone. “Whoever becomes the president, whichever party has the power, by and large we have a consensus that we should assist and support defectors as they enter South Korean society,” Mr. Hong said.

Mr. Hong said that even a government that seeks friendlier ties with Pyongyang would be constrained in part by a string of United Nations sanctions in response to the North’s recent nuclear tests. Those sanctions bar flows of money to North Korea.

“People for political purposes can talk about the necessity of economic cooperation with North Korea, but the reality is quite different,” Mr. Hong said.

Mr. Hong acknowledged that many who flee North Korea fall between the cracks in hypercompetitive South Korea, and vowed new measures to better integrate the new arrivals from the North. Mr. Hong’s time to introduce such measures is limited, however, as a new government will take power within the next year, and possibly sooner if Ms. Park is removed from office.

The number of defectors from North Korea rose to 1,417 people last year, according to Unification Ministry data, after several years of falling numbers that South Korean officials attributed to heightened border security by the North. “We need to wait and see the trend more, but security in the border region didn’t get weaker, so it’s clear that people’s desire for a better life has increased,” Mr. Hong said.

Mr. Thae, the North’s former deputy ambassador to the U.K., defected not for economic reasons, but “for his son’s education,” Mr. Hong said. The rising number of elite defectors, including more than a dozen workers at North Korea’s overseas restaurants who arrived in South Korea last year, “shows how unsettled the Kim Jong Un system is internally,” Mr. Hong said.

“Kim Jong Un is obsessed with developing nuclear, but because of sanctions, they are suffering from a shortage of foreign currency, and Pyongyang is pressuring those in foreign countries to bring in more money,” Mr. Hong said.

Despite the increase in defections, the political leadership in North Korea appears to be on firmer footing than it has in recent years, says Kevin Gray, a professor in international relations and an expert on inter-Korean relations at the University of Sussex in the U.K.

“I would be very wary about placing too much emphasis on what these elite defections mean for the stability of the leadership,” says Mr. Gray. “The number has increased but the numbers are quite small. It’s not like what we were seeing in Eastern Europe [during the Cold War], when people were literally abandoning the regime.”

North Korean defectors prepare to release balloons carrying leaflets and a banner denouncing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Sept. 15, 2016
North Korean defectors prepare to release balloons carrying leaflets and a banner denouncing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Sept. 15, 2016 PHOTO: AHN YOUNG-JOON/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Because more information is flowing into the isolated North through cellphones, thumb drives and the Internet, Mr. Hong says North Koreans have a greater understanding than ever about conditions in the South before they leave.

A survey of 36 North Koreans inside the country conducted on behalf of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies found that roughly nine in 10 read foreign media at least once a month, despite rigid controls on North Koreans’ access to outside information.

“Many North Koreans decide to come to South Korea because of what they see through the media, but life on television is very different from reality,” Mr. Hong said.

Write to Jonathan Cheng at jonathan.cheng@wsj.com

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