Upbeat forecast for EU economy

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by LafayetteBis, Jul 2, 2020.

  1. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Debt is something countries live with customarily. There is ALWAYS debt and key-issue is "can a country keep up sufficient economic vigor to sustain it. Because debt does not just "go away".

    UK Net Trade has already this year taken a waking from the Covid-19 interference. But once that is over, the trade with the EU will NOT be coming back. I keep suggesting (here) that a overwhelming economic factor is presently taking place - that is, the change from the Industrial Age to the Information Age.

    The UK has a good foundation in the Information Age - because it pleases both doers and users. But, the jobs loss is not in that particular era - which contributes healthily to job-creation. It is in the industries that have been leaving much of Europe for the past three to four decades. They aint comin' back.

    China has swallowed them whole, and manufactures most everything that was once was "home produce". Thus, the UK has stoopidly decided to leave the EU at a time when it needs EU-trade most. Where, ever, is it going to find the trade to replace the EU - right next door, and with a consumer-population 60% larger than the US.

    The myopic Brits who voted against the EU will die off in another decade or two*. The younger kids get around more and are more open. They understand that their closest neighbor is well worth the effort of sharing a common economic destiny. Moreover, with English becoming the single-most common language of the EU it's really unfortunate that the UK is now outside-and-looking-in that common economic entity (rather than inside-and-looking-out).

    The world may be at peace, but it is nonetheless a dangerous place - and both the economic and military might of the EU are genuine protectors of all who live there within ...

    *From here:
     
  2. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    DECOUPLING: Boris Johnson now has ‘sound reasons’ to keep Huawei out of UK 5G.

    Sir John Sawers said new US sanctions imposed on the company meant that allowing Huawei to expand its grip on the UK telecoms market posed security risks that did not apply when the government announced a compromise solution in January giving it up to 35% of the market.​

    Sawers spoke out following reports – not denied by the government – that the National Cyber Security Centre has also concluded that the balance of risk has changed, and that Huawei must be excluded from 5G.​

    The decision, which is expected to be confirmed by the national security council within the next fortnight and announced in a statement to parliament before the summer recess, will be warmly welcomed by many Conservative MPs, 38 of whom rebelled in a vote on this issue in March.​

    In an article for the FT, Sawers said the original decision to allow Huawei a partial role in building 5G was a “reasonable balance” but that was no longer the case because of the sanctions, which would stop the firm using technology reliant on American intellectual property.​

    The security risks of relying on Huawei — a Communist front corporation — were always real. Trump’s sanctions just gave Britain the little extra impetus they needed to make the right decision.
     
  3. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Never say never in politics ...
     
  4. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    The UK faces 3 major problems.
    1. A no deal.
    2. Its mismanagement of c19 and the economic crisis that creates
    3. The travel ban, closed EU borders.

    Besides being locked out of the coming EU honey pot.

    The EU will manage, fighting like dogs and cats, but in the end will compromise.
    Interestingly, now the 6 month Presidency of Merkel/Germany in the council starts and her friend, a German, is President of the Commission.
    Will be interesting to see what those 2 Ladies can accomplish.
     
  5. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I am pleased that the "two ladies" are showing the world that females are more than adequate at the job of high-order market-management. It's time that their "way" of doing things - which is more without clashes than the male-way - can bring more harmony to the EU.

    It's biggest problem (I think) is the assimilation of the eastern fringe of ex-Communist states. And, as we all know, Communism was the least democratic of political philosophies. And, I am not sure that those states have learned that hard lesson. Power must change altering back-and-forth. No one is elected to run a country forever!

    In fact, that exchange of power is what keeps democracies alive - without countries continuing endlessly on just one track - to economic oblivion. Which is what will happen if the new-member eastern states continue to elect the same politicians over and over again. Politicians who rule too long (and some forever) never change and they can bring a country to economic oblivion ....

    And frankly, there is no law in the EU-Constitution that forbids such happening! Old bad-habits are hard to break ... and the younger generation (with a wider esprit) might work around that difficulty of the older generation to change anything for fear of risking failure. Take no risks and nothing evolves except in economies worsening out of fear of a changing world that is evolving profoundly.

    The recent election of a new ultra-conservative president in Poland shows exactly what might be happening. In its evolution, the recent ex-communist additions to the EU need to learn a lesson in pragmatic democratic evolution. It seems that lesson has not come across to them ...
     

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