US invasion of China.

Discussion in 'Warfare / Military' started by antileftwinger, Jan 20, 2012.

  1. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    Anything can be done, the question is does the US want to do it, the answer is no. No because the US is weak and China strong, but it would cost to much. A lot easier to blockade and watch China implode while supporting nationist movements within China to break it up. The US could totally destroy China as an empire without even having to land troops. The only way China has a chance is if to copies 100% the US system of government, until then it will never catch the US. This is why in the long term I see India as the main threat to US domination of the sea's, they have the beginings of the British system, which is almost as good and they will be more like Britain in the imperial period, i.e total war unlike anything the US has seen before willing to do anything for victory.

    I think Britain could be a threat to US interests, as the US leave the British will move it to there former role in Europe, the Gulf and South Atlantic. The problem Britain has it isn't economic and governmental system is failing and it could go all together or there could be a post modern backlash to save the British system.
     
  2. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    The real weak point of China is it's economy.

    The Chinese economy is remarkably fragile, and it is entirely dependent upon being a source of cheap labor, and massive amounts of exports of inexpensive goods, while importing raw materials. Cut off the flow of raw materials or eliminate the market for their goods, and it is liable to collapse within months.

    Not a single thing they produce is essential to other nations. They make nothing special, or unique, simply cheap. If the US stopped buying Chinese goods, then China would loose over 20% of it's income. The US is the largest purchaser of Chinese goods, buying more then all of the EU combined. And where the US leads, a great many other countries would follow, for example South Korea, Japan, and most of NATO.

    And I think it would actually be a pretty easy sell. I bet that if the US offered the "Tax Amnesty" that has been talked about for the last several years, a lot of Corporations would jump at the chance to move their production back to the US. Cut off the flow of money, and China goes back to being an overpopulated third world country.
     
  3. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    i like to see how blockade workout for everyone, when entire manufacture in china suddently stop, nothing on shelf of walmart, macy/ target, apple, samsung etc etc. its not something anyone can replace within a year or two.
    on top of that china is 3rd largest importer of US goods, right behind EU.

    there is no such thing as win a war against china without any cost to us. our economy is tie together now. there are trillions invest in china from microsoft,apple,catepillar,etc etc list goes on and on. blockade would meant those investment are gone, and will take a huge hit on stock market.
     
  4. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    Wet dreams are so wet, arn't they?
    So, you are claiming, that it is possible to "blocade" it. I wonder how you are actually going to do that? Military blocade---->full scale war and i doubt it is "safer" than the actual invasion. Trade blocade, imposed through sanctions, will hurt both sides. What do you think they will fill Walmarts with? And, by the way, China, IINM, is the biggest holder of US bonds. Biggest importer, which is "producing" services and printing money are going to have a trade war with biggest producer of an actual goods? Pffff, please. Not happening.


    Also, it is nice to see loads of ignorance, worth a true Westerner. You have no (*)(*)(*)(*)ing idea about what their nationalist movements are. There is only one worth mentioning, and that region is already have a majority of han population. So not happening.
     
  5. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    Maybe you are right, but we will just have to wait and see. None of us really know the true facts, we just try and make something that fits what happened before when a western power went to war with China over trade.
     
  6. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    Is that 3 trillion since the 1970's or 3 trillion a year?
     
  7. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    Well, don't know about you, but i know, that industry sector is ~50% of Chinese economy and ~15% in the US. US is a biggest debtholder and China has world's largest foreign-exchange reserves. Many Americans ,obviously, like to trick themselves that they are the ones, who hold Chinese balls. But reality hurts.
     
  8. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Try 3-9 months.

    You have to realize that China did not become the largest trader on it's own, it crushed a lot of other countries in the process. Philippines, Mexico, Costa Rica, Taiwan, Indonesia, Vietnam, the list just goes on and on and on. I can guarantee that within 3 months the first goods will start to come out of these countries once again, as it did until about 15 years ago when lower prices from China had them move.

    There is an old saying, actually made over a century ago by John Paul Getty:

    It is also commonly paraphrased that "If you owe the bank $100, the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $100 million, you own the bank."

    China investing in the US is not an altruistic measure, it has been doing that to shore up it's own currency and as a rapid means to gain international credit. And these are Treasury Notes, it is not like China can up and decide "Hey, we want this money back, so pay us". These are notes with 10-40 year maturity dates, and nothing different from what banks and corporations, or even you or I can buy.

    And the largest holder of US debt is still the American People and American Corporations. Not China.
     
  9. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    Underestimating your rival is №1 step towards a defeat.
    They would build new factories and train a workforce in just 3 months. Good luck with that.


    Too bad it doesn't work with entire countries.
    Yeah, sure. Any ideas with what would actually happen, if they will relise all their bounds and dollar reserves into the market? I bet all your savings will have the cost of a toilet paper outside the US. Of course you government may artificially control it initially, but you would not be able to buy the same amount of goods with your own currency in the other countries. It might send your economy into new depression or even kill it.
    And what are you going to fill your shelves with?
    I meant foreign holders, obviously.
     
  10. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    They do not need to build factories and train a workforce. The factories are still in place, simply working at a lower capacity then they did when they were major production centers for US and European goods.

    They would be committing economic seppuku, this should go without saying. A lot of their own economic strength is based upon it's trade with the United States. Sure, they could do damage to our economy, but that would rebound upon themselves as they wreck their own at the same time.

    The last time a group of nations tried something like that with the US was in 1973, and OPEC almost slit their own throats in the attempt. Yea, the US took an economic hit. But the loss of income almost destroyed OPEC, and it forced the US and other nations to expand their own domestic production (it was what made the Alaska Pipeline possible, as well as expanded UK production in the North Sea).

    If anybody really thinks that an embargo by a producing country upon it's customers is a winnable situation for a country to be in, look back to 1973. This is a real object lesson in what supplier embargos are like in the modern era.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_embargo#Decline_of_OPEC

    Stop us from getting our COSCO ladders and cribs, and we either do without, we either increase (or restart) domestic production, or other countries step in and start building them themselves. And nothing that comes from China is irreplaceable and can't be produced elsewhere. They are not making any devices that we simply have to have out of unobtanium.

    And I bet that if that were to happen, China would likely never regain it's position. Because the countries like Mexico and Philippines would fight doubly hard to keep from loosing their production a second time.
     
  11. SFJEFF

    SFJEFF New Member

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    Not going to bother to answer individually but Mushroom is correct.

    Canada and Mexico are right on our borders- and both have underused industrial capacity. Europe would jump at a chance to increase its underused industrial base- because if China was at war with the U.S. price would no longer be an object- and they wouldn't be selling anything to China.

    Think about this- other than a few neigboring countries China would not be selling its product to any countries in the world- or buying anything- because the U.S. could stop all vessel traffic in and out of China- and no shipping company would send it ships into a war zone.

    But the U.S.? We could ship everything through the East Coast- oh it would be hard but once we were on a war footing- with ports running at full capacity- we could import from every manufacturing country in the world.

    The U.S. is poised to be energy self sufficient- and if you count Canada and Mexico as sure thing suppliers could be entirely self suffiicient in months. China? Not so much- if Russia didn't agree to supply oil and gas, China would be screwed.

    And as Mushroom pointed out- this whole thing would be a huge incentive to increase manufacturing in the U.S. We may not have the industrial base we used to have- but we are one of the worlds leaders in setting up state of the art- i.e. most labor efficient- factories in the world- we could use that to start up our manufacturing here again.

    China knows this.

    China is waging an entirely different war- purely economic- and a military war would screw that up.
     
  12. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    You have weird understanding of production.
    Who was that genius, who told you, that they have enough production facilities to replace China? Who told you that, that "factories are still in place"? I suppose a lot of them were just closed or bankrupted. Who told you that it is even remotely possible to restart a production and find a workforce just in several months? Who told you, that somebody would even bother to do it, because your currency will be undermined?

    I supposed we are discussing a hypotetical situation, when USA and it's whor..ugh....allies established an economical blocade. Which is a direct attempt to kill their economy. This situation is already screwed enough. Why you suppose China would hold the dollar to themselves, besides they wouldn't be able to use it to buy goods, since the countries, which are using it, probably would join the blocade. Nothing stops the Chinese from traiding in other currencies or even barter with the others, right? So...why do you suppose them not to use this wonderful opportunity to bring your economy to stown age?

    Also OPEC example is a faliure. China is by far bigger supplier and dollar holder, than all OPEC combined was. And 2013 US is not even close to 1973 US.


    Your attempts to prove, that Chinese economy is "fragile" and US one is undestructable titan are ultimately ridiculous. I guess we all remember how 2008 crysis began. It was your real estate bubble bursted, and your "mighty" AAA credit ratings 'Murican banks exploded. And than China was pulling the entire world's economy from the pit with 7% growth.
    Pfff, in the case of trade war your economy would be in serious trouble, might even face something bigger, than Great Depression. Total deficit of manufactured goods - that is what you'll face. You would be able to use your precious dollar as a napkin outside the US. It'll cost nothing. Yet you are expecting hordes of companies worldwide rush into crumbling economy, which can not pay for their goods. Not happening.

    Again, Chinese economy is ~12 trillion$. Yours is ~15 trillion$. China is too big and too important to even try to "block" it.
    Just like with Taliban, you've raised your killers with your own hands.
     
  13. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    I wonder why an agent of the FSB is supporting China in a war against the US when China is a greater threat to Russian territory and interests than US. That would be like me an agent from GCHQ supporting Russian in a war against the US.
     
  14. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    Ah....more clueless stuff from a homegrown Westerner. :smile:
    For one, I'd advise you to try getting other people nicknames with a small load of sarcasm.
    First of all , I am not "supporting" China. I am speaking out things as they are.
    Secondly, US is by far greater threat to security, than China is or ever were.
    -Intervention into domestic politics in the attempt to change nation's government:check
    -Surrounding with military bases:check
    -Creating puppet regimes around borders:check
    -Continous anti-Russian propaganda in own media:check
    -Waging wars relatively close to our borders:check
    Hell, if I had too chose which side I want to "win", it would be China all day every day.
    But I would prefer it not happening at all.
     
  15. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    No, and that is why you fail to grasp this concept.

    Tell me, what does China make that nobody else in the world can make? Hmmm?

    The US is the worlds largest supplier of food. Our economy can't be destroyed largely for this reason. Because no matter what, people have to eat. And they will continue to buy the one thing that has made our country an economic powerhouse, food. So short of the Yellowstone Caldera exploding, that will not change.

    OPEC has a commodity that most of the world thinks it needs to survive, oil. But does it need that oil really? Well, the 1973 embargo showed that it did not, at least not to the degree that OPEC thought they needed it. They cut off the oil to some of the largest consumers in the world, and what was the effect? Well, they increased local production and cut consumption. It also drove the need for better fuel economy and alternate fuels.

    The same if the supply of manufactured goods from China ended. Not a single thing that comes from China is not available from elsewhere. Nothing.

    Now let's reverse this, shall we? If the US was to cut off the supply of food, what then? I will tell you, people starve. You can't just not eat until domestic supply increases or supplies come from elsewhere. And with such a large export market removed prices will skyrocket.

    What you are proving is that you have little grasp on supply and demand, and what is a required good as opposed to a needed good. Not a single thing that comes from China can't be replaced by 500 other countries. Nothing. Not the plastic bath duckies, not the stainless silverware, not the t-shirts with Power Rangers on them. This is what makes a real difference in International Trade.

    And no, I do not have a "weird understanding of production", I actually understand it quite well. How many billions of tons of goods are already in the country, or en-route and paid for? Enough to last months, easily. And remember, none of them are really "required goods", they are goods of convenience, not something that is absolutely needed.

    And it would not take much. Even a repeat of 1989 would destroy the economy of China. After their little fit against their citizens, their export market dropped 40%, and remained low for almost a decade afterwards. Tourism dropped by 20%, and it took almost a decade for that to recover as well.

    If an embargo was to happen against China, I expect it would start for similar reasons. And the embargo would be primarily by the companies themselves, wanting to distance themselves from China. All of that massive investment of the late 1990's and early 2000's would become massive disinvestments if that happened.

    And you also forget that this would not be just the US. If something happened to cause this to happen, do you think the US would be alone? Japan, UK, Australia, most of Europe would quickly follow (and would see their own economic salvation in the form of jobs returning to their own countries).

    Heck, in 1989 even the Soviet Union condemned the atrocities of Tiananmen Square, calling for China to improve human rights, and to tie the USSR foreign policy with human rights. Yugoslavia, Mongolia, Poland, Hungary, even the Italian Communist Party condemned those actions.

    About the only nations that supported China was Burma, Vietnam, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Romania. If you notice, all of the European nations that tried to support that action no longer exist as they did in 1989. What you are missing here is the key aspect of human reaction.

    BTW, Taiwan saw a resurgence of trade after 1989, and made a large International push saying that they were "The other China". And the initial increases in trade with the PRC came through Taiwan. It was only in the early part of the 2000's that companies started to negotiate more directly with the PRC.

    And in many ways, they still do. Foxconn, the largest electronics manufacturer and contractor? That is not a Chinese company, it is Taiwanese. It only has facilities in China because of cheap labor. But they are not exclusively in China, they are also in Mexico, India, Japan, Malaysia, Hungary, Slovokia, Brazil, and the Czech Republic (where they are the second largest exporter of that nation).

    As I said, nothing "Made in China" is irreplaceable. Nothing. And unless you get that you will never understand this.
     
  16. tkolter

    tkolter Well-Known Member

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    There would never be a war, first a major war like that would be expensive its fine for border skirmishes and the like but a real WAR means major dollars and there is always the chance one side or both would go nuclear who then wins? One of our ballistic missile subs could blast China back to the stone age, they could hit half the US with missiles they have which means we hit with what we have left and so would they. No Winners Anywhere

    The only upside all the money we owe them we could write off and on the grounds they started a war with us, we will not aid our enemies that debt is no longer recoverable - ever. But the overall costs would be too high for both nations.
     
  17. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    Try rare earth metals, 95% of total world's production. What are your going to use to build your i-Phones? Huh?
    Too bad you wouldn't be able to build military hardware too , huh? :smile:

    So...you can replace mashinery, but you can't replace food production? Who told you that, again?
    I mean, that didn't worked well during Great Depression, right?

    ...Only means OPEC didn't have pockets deep enough to continue this thing long enough.
    Oh no, here we go again.
    [​IMG]
    It seems you didn't get it.
    Increasing production isn't something that simple:
    "Oh, wow, empty place on the market, let's increase production 2000%. Hey, main engineer, you have 15 minutes!".
    Opening a big secret for you, but producers don't hold huge amounts of industrial potential to be used "just in case US will go into trade war with China". It is inefficient. They might slightely increase production, but not dozen times. If you are producing something more technological, than axes or shovels, you need to have bank's credit line opened and than order CNC machines,
    than bother with recruting people for your job. But remember, in order to safe your factory from being completely (*)(*)(*)(*)ed up you need to recrut skilled workes or to train people, which is going to take a lot of time. That is a serious and risky step, because you might find out that there is no demand for your production left, when you are finished.
    And that is idealistic case, when you are able to "buy" everything you need for that. In real-life technological chains might be screwed completely. There might be no manufacturer left in the country to produce equipment you need, or it's cost might be sky-high.


    Imagine how much people and money you'll gona need to replace ~6trillion of Chinese output.

    And the last part - you need avoid going bancrupt upgraiding your "factory".
    Now let's reverse it, shall we? If the US can import goods from other countries, instead of China (sic!), what would stop China from buying food from other countries or, say, decrease meat production and increase production of grain. People might not like it, but they deinitelly are not going to "starve".
    The opposite, Mushroom. It is you, who is showing he true example of ignoramus, who is claiming, that it is possible to replace world's main producer just in the matter of months with a finger snap. Industry was migrating into China for 40 years, now you expect the same movement to happen in "months"? You serious? Decades, my dear, decades.

    Also, answer me, please, how you are going to replace rare earths?
    I mean, you won't be able to produce electronics at all. You must really like 60-th, don't you?
    No.
    And those stupid yellow-faced monkeys don't have their reserves of food, right? They are doomed to die from starvation in matter of hours.
    Failed exaple. What was China back in 1989? Now China is №2 world's economy and by far №1 producer.

    Occupied, whore, buddy, mostly whores.
    As i said. That wouldn't change a lot, really. Europe is in the exact the same position, just with euro instead of dollar.

    Taking into account huge tensions between USSR and China since Stalin's death, I am not surprised.
    Some of those, who supported no longer exist either. Your point?

    How many countries recognize Taiwan as an indipendent state? I am not sure US does, for one.

    *cought*rare earths*cought*
    And that was only one example.
     
  18. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    trillions invest by foreign country start in early as 90s, but didn't pick it up till 2000's, and its increasing by double digit percentate every year for 10years.
     
  19. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    good luck with 3-9 month. nope, its not something you replace in a year. not at that scale. right now labor cost in ASEAN/mexcio/some latin america are cheaper than china, and yet manufacture still stay in china.
    1. trillions equipment/manufacture/investment are in china, not something business want to give up on.
    2. ALL these nation lack the infastruture compare to china, make china products cheap/efficients/productive.
    3. mid-high tech manufacture require development/trainning etc, not something other country can subsitude in a year, for all the samusng, apple, ibm, dell, hp, etc etc etc
    4. to subsitude china, corporation need build manufacture/equipment/train/management/find supply chain(which is currently all in china) on a scale large as china. not possible in 3-9 month.

    remember manufacture not only need factory to build things, but equipment/trainning/proper labor force/management/supply chain etc etc, now time that by several hundred thousands factories.

    its same with any type of occupation, carrier group need alot trainning before it can run right, same with manufacture on that scale.
     
  20. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    china has more lose compare to US. but don't think US economy will not hurt at all. it will hurt pretty bad for decade. there is reason why coporation haven't shift jobs to mexico even though mexico has cheaper labor compare to china.
    for example apple made product to meet consumer demend, they need hire 6000 skill worker overnight, no country can do that. also since US hasn't manufacture these product for some time, hire that many worker in short time is the least problem to worry about. you need train them, you need establish supply chain, which is huge due to apple size, you need build approaite size manufacture within a year not hindered by US government policy. it take decades for these corporation to establish everything in china(and china state is very efficient at these, no EPA, plentiful labor etc), its naive to think if china is gone, we can do that in a year.

    likely cost of everything will raise, stock market going down to bottom for the foeseeable future. japan economy crush in 80s, they still hasn't fully recover from that. we had a 2008 dip, and take years to get back up, and thats with US/china pumping out billions stimulus, and coporation rely on chinese market for bouncing off. GM sold more car in china compare to US since 2010, same with samsung, apple. china has 900million cell phone user, 400million middle class. top importer of US/european goods. and people think cut off 2nd largest economy will not hurt world economy!!!, they need take economy 101
     
  21. SFJEFF

    SFJEFF New Member

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    Sorry you are just wrong. China is currently the world's choice in manufacturing because yes- it has a good infrastructure- better than India's for example- and yes it has a good supply of trained, educated workers.

    But other countries have fine infrastructure- all of Europe, Canada, Mexico. Other companies have workers that are trained as well as China but haven't be economically competative- with China out of the market suddenly they would be competitive.

    Sure it would hurt the U.S., it would temporarily really hurt our economy. But in the long run it would probably help our economy- it would result in massive U.S. investment in American manufacturing capability. And that would really hurt China in the long run.

    Meanwhile- who would China sell to? Vietnam, maybe Russia, North Korea- who else? China is entirely dependent on water transport for its imports and exports- and yes, there would be an effective blockade of China. Since the area would be considered a war zone, the only Steamship lines that would consider sending ships there would be the Chinese owned carriers- and there are only one or two that I can think of.

    But this is just musings- like I said before- China is waging an entirely different war- an economic war- and this type of thing would ruin a strategy that has been making China a world power.
     
  22. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    *insane laugh*

    "Rare Earths" are not rare. They are quite literally "as common as dirt".

    What makes them "rare" is that you have to have a lot of machinery to process it, and process a lot of firt. And this is very damaging to the environment. China is literally destroying thousands of square miles of their country to harvest this "new gold", but it is not sustainable. And they are going to leave behind a landscape that will make the hydraulic mining of California look like a paradise. Because while discarding the "unrare earth", they leave behind huge amounts of toxic chemicals.

    And BTW, what is the most commonly used rare earth at this time? Lithium. And the largest producers of this are Chile, Argentina, and the United States. There are others that are commonly used to make magnets, but once again they are really not all that "rare", simply horribly damaging to the environment to extract which is why most countries simply choose to buy them from China instead of extracting them themselves.

    And if not available, they will use "less rare" elements, they will use more conventional metals. Only it's availability is allowing it to be used in things like headphones and toys. If the supply dried up, they would shift to other resources.

    But hey, if China wants to turn gigantic stretches of their country into this, more power to them.

    [​IMG].

    And I never said it would not hurt the US. I can easily see double digit inflation, an increase in the Prime Interest Rate, and shortages of other goods. But once again, not irreplaceable.

    China has become the choice because of cheap wages, guaranteed to remain low by the government. No unions, no strikes, everybody does exactly what they are told or they get to go to jail and farm gold for the government.

    It has nothing to do with education, most of this work is rather menial and low skilled. What attracts businesses to China is simply the cost, nothing else.
     
  23. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    Why are you laughing at your own language? Makes no sence.

    Thank you for your opinion, but it changes nothing.
    Rare earths are vital for elctronics - true.
    China produces 95% of them - true.
    No chances you would start produce them "in months" in sufficient numbers. Years, Mushroom, years.
    Failed to see how "harming environment" stops your companies to drill ground for shale gas.
    Also, I can't pass trough the load of ignorance in you head, especially calling Litium "rare earth". It is not. It is alkali metal. Missing chemistry lessons much? :smile:
    Moreover, "use conventional metals". Dude. Come on now. Even if possible, that would require re-design of entire device in the best case. And new R&D project in the worst.

    To sum up, blocking "fragile" Chinese economy would be as devastating for you, as for China.
     
  24. SFJEFF

    SFJEFF New Member

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    Nope. Americans would still be eating. Americans would still have heat and electricity.

    China is currently in the midst of trying to change their economy so that it is not so entirely export dependent, and become more consumer driven- but its a tough one to do. The United States imports lots and lots from China- but is not dependent on imports from China.

    Again this is all a ridiculous hypothetical- since China's strategy is dependent on this type of war never happening. But if there was such a war, China's economy would be far, far more devastated than the U.S.'s.
     
  25. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    Seems it would be the only bearable fact in your new reality.
    I doubt. Since your dollar would cost nothing, i am not sure somebody would sell you enough oil (you are the biggest importer in the world) for your economy. So you have to chose: fuel your industry, fuel your transport or give your houses some heat and electricity. I, for one, would exclude the latter as the least important for crumbling economy.
    Maybe it is time to do some homework on your own economy, which is producing virtual goods and virtual money.
    Oh yeah, Chinese economy would be in the stown age and your in the bronze, or, perhaps, you would be able to challenge random 3-rd world country. Makes you feel good, doesn't it?
     

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