USA not 1/1000th of the way through the Pandemic.

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by Kurmugeon, Mar 31, 2020.

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  1. Kurmugeon

    Kurmugeon Well-Known Member

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    Even by the most generous of estimates for number who will be infected, and death-rate, America is not yet 1/1000th of the way through this Pandemic.

    The WHO estimates the expected death rate to be 2%: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#days

    This is not at all what we are seeing in Italy, or world-wide. World-wide we have 38K dead / 167K recovered. So, the Death-rate is running around 23% so far:

    https://ncov2019.live/data

    But, let's be optimistic, and call it 2%.

    Some sources are saying 70% of Americans will eventually get Corona, but, let's be optimistic, and say just 50% will get it.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-150-million-americans-may-get-infected-2020-3

    There are 325 Million in America: https://www.census.gov/popclock/

    So...

    325 * 0.7 * 0.02 = 4.5 Million Dead before it is done.

    So far, we only have 3180, or close to it, dead.

    3180 / 4.5 M = 7.0e-4 = 0.0007 of the way to the expected outcome. IF it were 0.001 or greater, we would be 1/1000th of the way there.

    It is likely to be over by Fall of next year or 18 Months: https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-pandemic-could-last-18-months.html

    4.5M / 18 = 250K per month = 8928 per day. Since a bunch of days have already passed with a much lower rate, it will increase to huge numbers at its peak.

    When this thing gets moving, it is going to kill 10s of Thousands a day!

    And that is with a very cheery, and not very realistic estimate.

    Unless.... UNLESS!.... an effective and mass manufacture-able treatment can be found!

    -
     
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  2. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Thank you for providing that post, I saved it!
     
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  3. HB Surfer

    HB Surfer Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The death rate will be 1% tops. As more tests are taken and more people with mild symptoms are identified, the Fatality Rate will drop. We are primarily testing those that have the more severe symptoms are are affected the worst by it.

    If people follow the stay at home orders and are careful when they go out with sanitizer, washing of hands, and not being around others, it will not be as bad as expected.
     
  4. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    The larger variable is the rate of infection. In Italy they have tested about 450,000 of 60 million people. The death rate to the known infection rate is about 10%. But with only 1 in 133 people tested, we don't know the true infection rate. And we only know of an infection rate of 0.16% - 100,000 of 60 million. So the big variable seems to be not the mortality rate, but the infection rate.

    In the US, we have tested about 1 in 330 persons.
     
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  5. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    The error is that you used a wild guess about how many infections will happen in your calculation. I should mention that 10-12 thousand people die from each flu virus. We aren't even close to that.
     
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  6. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You aren't helping.

    Is it that you think you are?



     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  7. notme

    notme Well-Known Member

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    I do think the WTO still claims it's going to be 3.4%. Do take into account that people who died, without being tested, won't be tested post-mortem. There is no time. They are using forklift trucks to pile the corpses in 18 wheelers in New York at the moment.

    And of course it's to be seen how bad it's going to get. But currently the US is still breaking records everyday. +500 died yesterday. The amount infected also increases. No matter what % you're keen on, there is a correlation between infected and death. So.. it will be logical that +500 a day will be broken again and again the following weeks. That is so, because it takes some time before an infected person gets dragged to a hospital. That's why they are making a field hospital in central park and some other places. And than it takes some time before they die. People at the respirators need weeks of that to have a chance. Hence the need of massive amounts of ventilators.

    Yeah... not so long ago the GOP was going... just a flu.
    Them lot now got amnesia. It's all terrible. Hopefully they will recover from that.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
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  8. notme

    notme Well-Known Member

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    Neither are you
     
  9. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    I predict things will be normal by Sep 1st

    Then spring of 2021 —-the second wave
     
  10. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    We will never get a correct death rate because the majority of people who will get the virus will never be tested as they will have recovered at home. A more useful statistic would be what rate of hospital admissions recover and what is there quality of life afterwards
     
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  11. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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  12. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    Well I guess after 5 weeks of this we have what 59,999,986.00 infections to go based on your prediction.
     
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  13. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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  14. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    Why would you think that Spain would have figures significantly different? less than 500 flu deaths compared to more than 8000 coronavirus deaths. The point being is that coronavirus is much more contagious and deadlier than seasonal flu
     
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  15. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    Front end loaders and skid steers are much more efficient for piling corpses or dumping corpses in mass graves. A fork lift can only take one limp corpse per fork, and move slowly with a very soft touch, unless the corpses are in shipping crates or caskets -- then you can load the machine to weight capacity.
     
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  16. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I love predictions from "experts". Especially WHO which is the group of "experts" that failed to tell the world of the release of this virus for weeks.
    My favorite of all time, "Hillary by a landslide".
     
  17. notme

    notme Well-Known Member

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    I dunno what they are doing in New York. But they are using them trailers as morgues at the moment.
    All part of it's just a flu we can go back to work soon. I read that tweet from Donald, you know.

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/30/coro...-puts-bodies-covid-19-victims-truck-12479046/
     
  18. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    My favorite is Iraq's WMD, followed closely by 19 arabs with box cutters. :clapping:
     
  19. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Even at The Current Population estimate of the USA (330 Million), only a little over a 30% Infection rate would yield 100 Million Cases.

    And a 1% Death Rate would 1 MILLION DEAD.

    Why do Trump (and his supporters) keep trotting out the "it's no worse that the flu" BS?
     
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  20. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Certainly a close second as it was believed by the entire congress
     
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  21. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    Did the entire congress actually believe it, or did it just pretend like it believed it? Politicians are great actors and actresses.
     
  22. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Does it matter? The outcome was the same.
     
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  23. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    Unless most of the nations on Earth are lying about the numbers infected compared to the number who die then so far the death rate is roughly 1% I think that the only reason this is considered pandemic worthy is that the infection rate is off the scale. That or most nations are lying about what is actually happening.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  24. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    The dock height of a reefer trailer is generally 50" depending on what the carrier specifies and could be less, and iirc they were loading in by hand labor.
     
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  25. Shonyman32

    Shonyman32 Well-Known Member

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    Has Italy recieved bad tests from china like others?
     

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