Was Global Warming The Cause of the Great Northwest Heatwave? Science Says No.

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by Sunsettommy, Jul 6, 2021.

  1. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Watts Up With That?

    Was Global Warming The Cause of the Great Northwest Heatwave? Science Says No.

    Reposted from The Cliff Mass Weather Blog

    July 6, 2021

    Excerpt:

    During the past week, the Pacific Northwest experienced the most severe heat event of the past century.

    All-time high-temperature records were broken throughout the region, often by large margins. Many in the media, several local and national politicians, and some activist environmental scientists have claimed that this event was “driven by” or predominantly forced by human-inspired global warming (usually referred to as “climate change”).But such global warming claims are not supported by the facts and our best scientific understanding.

    [​IMG]

    Truth and Rigorous Science About Climate Change is Necessary for Wise Decisions

    In this blog, I will use observations, modeling, climatological data, and the peer-reviewed scientific literature to demonstrate that human-caused global warming played a very small role in the extreme heat event that we just experienced here in the Pacific Northwest.I will describe the origins of a meteorological black swan eventand how the atmosphere is capable of attaining extreme, unusual conditions without any aid from our species.As you read this, consider that I have actively pursued research on Northwest heatwaves, published several papers in the peer-reviewed literature on this specific topic, and have run both weather prediction and climate models that simulate such events. This subject is in my wheelhouse.

    I also discuss the seriousness of misinformation. You and others can not make wise decisions when the information provided to you is not based on truth and science.

    LINK
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2021
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  2. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    What's your point? From your link:

    The Pacific Northwest is warming and human emission of greenhouse gases is probably the origin of much of it.

    ...

    This concurrence of a number of factors coming together at one place and time was why the extreme heat occurred, with a very small assist from global warming, which added a few degrees to an already extreme event.

    It is a good piece you have linked, though, because it is clearly based in science and fact, and is attempting to set the record straight. However, it should be pointed out that climate alarmism is still better at this point than climate change denial, because alarmism will help push humanity to make necessary changes to hopefully bring the warming to an end and save the environment in the long term. We need it to help push governments, corporations and regular people alike toward better technologies and practices.
     
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  3. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    Exactly. It's all about risk mitigation.

    Unfortunately, conspiracy theorists see climate change as a left-wing plot. You won't convince them otherwise.
     
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  4. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    You didn't make a case at all for anything about the article, while Dr. Mass made a good case that has yet to be shown wrong which I don't think you understood.

    I lived through this heat wave in about the hottest part of all, it reached 117F for two days and over 112F for three more days.

    It took a rare setting of several weather events to combine in the same area to make this possible, yet the world goes on and it is back to the usual for the region, forests still intact and alive, wildlife still intact.....

    The environment have survived far worse over the million years and still here today, the real environmental dangers are being ignored over the irrational climate hysteria.

    We handle temperature change of 30-40F daily in the summer without a thought, but go bananas over a postulated warming increase of 2C over the next 80 years, LOL.

    What is being denied?
     
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  5. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Meanwhile you continue to miss a lot of things such as this COOLING trend in the region since 1990:

    A comment in the thread you didn't read:

    Lee L,

    From the article:
    ” For example, the U.S. National Climate Assessment found the warmest day of the year over the Northwest actually COOLED between a historic (1901-1960) and a contemporary period (1986-2016)”

    As I’ve noted before, it is worth looking up the Pacific Northwest on Berkeley Earth where you can find the RATE of warming or otherwise.
    See…
    http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/locations/47.42N-121.97W

    … where you will find the following produced from DATA ( not models):

    Mean RATE of temperature change(degrees C/century SINCE 1990):
    Vancouver, BC -1.62 +/-.60
    Seattle -1.27 +/-.67
    Portland -1.62 +/- .60

    British Columbia -.04 (+/-.32)
    Washington state -.54 (+/-.41)
    Oregon state -.33 (+/-.29)

    Now it has been over 30 years since 1990 which ought to be enough time to see some evidence of an ACCELERATING CLIMATE EMERGENCY developing in the region.

    Note: those Minus signs are NOT typos.

    LINK

    ======

    It is my experience that leftists are poor readers and often science illiterates as they see everything through a leftist political prism.
     
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  6. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Cold is the killer, not heat.
    Czech Extreme Weather Fatalities Study Finds “Statistically Significant Falling Trend”…Most Related To Cold!
    By P Gosselin on 6. July 2021

    Share this...
    A study of Czech extreme weather fatalities show that the trend has been “significantly falling”. Most weather extreme fatalities were related to cold…less than 2% “heat related”!

    German climate site Die kalte Sonne reports on on new study that looked at fatalities due to weather extremes in the European landlocked country of the Czech Republic.

    Let’s recall how climate alarmists claim the number of fatalities due to extreme weather from global warming will rise rapidly and that mankind now even faces “an existential threat”. But it isn’t so, a new study finds.

    [​IMG]

    In the newly released study appearing in the journal Natural Hazards Earth Systems Science authored by Rudolf Brázdil et al., the researchers made an analysis of fatalities attributable to weather conditions in the Czech Republic during the 2000–2019 period. . . .
     
  7. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    An easy to watch 10 minute video.



    Why So Much Effort to Suppress Record Cold Temperatures and Crop Losses

     
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  8. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    Polar ice is melting and sea levels are rising. Warming oceans are killing sea life in addition to fueling more powerful storms and changes in weather patterns.

    But perhaps most importantly, this is all just getting started. Climate doesn't change overnight.
     
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  9. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The data are otherwise.
    [​IMG]



    Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL.
     
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  10. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Ha ha, now you avoid Dr. Mass article altogether.

    It is clear you have nothing but politically based ideology to offer, I prefer science research based on data, you run on propaganda.

    Here is a post I made a few weeks ago that showed that climate emergency isn't happening at all, it is so decisive that even warmist/alarmists in the thread never made a single counterpoint against it.

    Where Is The “Climate Emergency”?
     
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  11. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Sea level was once 350 feet lower than now, then we survived far more rapid sea level rise than the feeble 2.5mm/yr. of today that should have drowned the Corals all over world but here they are today intact.

    [​IMG]

    Early Holocene sea level rise - Wikipedia


    People survived far more rapid sea level rise and warmer temperatures of today.

    Scientists On The Verge Of Finding Real-Life Atlantis Beneath The North Sea


    None of what you say is dangerous to the planet, and it was hotter earlier in the Holocene than now, yet life went on.....

    You are too easily swayed by the dishonest media propaganda.....
     
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2021
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  12. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    It's weather, not climate.
    The Truth About Heat Waves
    Guest Blogger
    Disturbingly, some scientists dependent on global warming funding also suggest only global warming explains that heatwave. However, they ignore the fact that the heatwave’s clear skies reduce the local greenhouse…
     
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  13. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Polar ICE stopped melting downward around 13 years ago:

    piomas-ice-volume-to-mar-2021.png
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2021
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  14. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    I don't see how this cherry-picked data point in any way supports your assertion.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2021
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  15. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    You claimed polar ice is melting.
     
  16. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    Last edited: Jul 12, 2021
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  17. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    Where I am in TX, we've had 3 months of coldest monthly temps ever. Of course, it's not news... right?
     
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  18. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  19. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Ha ha ha, how is it cherrypicked when the ENTIRE modeled base is posted?

    Can you see the YELLOW line?

    That is around 13 years of time.
     
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  20. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    A simple question is: "why this year, is the greenland ice sheet growing in the summer." Likely won't get a response to that.
     
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  21. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    Simply false. Can you see the trend?
     
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  22. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Not since 2010 by YOUR chart. the decline stopped at a lower level than it started in 1979, sure it has declined since 1979, but not since 2010 (by your chart) or by current chart at (2008) on modeled ice volume, no anomaly at all.

    My chart is Modeled volume is based on MONTHLY values ,

    Your chart is an anomaly based YEARLY values on a baseline.

    Learn to read next time!
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2021
  23. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Your chart trend line starts at 1979, but your chart shows an obvious flattening trend since 2010, and since 2008 with the yellow line.

    You can only hurt your credibility when you ignore your own evidence.
     
  24. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    There are two such anomalies in the data presented on the chart, but they alone do not support your assertion that polar ice has simply stopped melting.

    It's always amusing when people draw simplistic conclusions from a data point and think they've blown the lid off of some great global conspiracy. I just wonder where you got this from in the first place. What's your fake news source?
     
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  25. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

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    It is just a political stunt.
    SEAPAC is a right wing org.
     
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