Was Global Warming The Cause of the Great Northwest Heatwave? Science Says No.

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by Sunsettommy, Jul 6, 2021.

  1. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Jul 14, 2021
  2. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I tried to read it in it's entirety but it was a lot. Can you point out where in the article it mentions hurricanes this season?
     
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  3. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Not true.
    [​IMG]



    Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL.
     
  4. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Try this:

    NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season

    This was a freebie, you could have found it yourself very easily, try not to be so lazy next time.
     
  5. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  6. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    That is the title of the page, it is clear you didn't look in it, why are you dragging this out?
     
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  7. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  8. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    https://www.ecowatch.com/2021-hurricane-season-noaa-prediction-2653065961.html

    2021 Hurricane Season: NOAA Predicts More Storms Than Usual


    If forecasts are correct, 2021 will be the sixth consecutive year with a hurricane season more active than normal. While less active than last year's record-shattering hurricane season, NOAA expects 2021 to see 13 to 20 named storms (14 is typical since 1990), 6 to 10 hurricanes (7 is typical), and 3 to 5 major hurricanes Category 3 or stronger (3 is typical).
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2021
  9. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    This is hilarious since what I posted was straight from the NOAA, the place that makes the predictions, you run to a blog which means you NEVER opened my link.

    The only area above average last year was the Atlantic, it was below average everywhere else last year.

    :roflol:

    You wrote this you never did support which was the cause of my replies to you since:

    It appears you have failed after several chances......

    :roll:
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2021
  10. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Straight from your link. Sure reads exactly like my link. So what are you arguing about?

    For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected.
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2021
  11. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Ha ha, did you misunderstand your own words?

    That is what YOU stated, NOAA never says anything about stronger, heck YOU quoted this which says NOTHING about stronger Hurricanes:

    "For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected."

    Nothing here saying stronger Hurricanes and YOU know it.

    You went to a different link because you were too afraid to open the NOAA's link, where the SOURCE of the seasonal predictions are published, the one I went to.

    Not going to go on with your childing nonsense.
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2021
  12. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In almost every region of the world where hurricanes form, their maximum sustained winds are getting stronger. That is according to a new study by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Center for Environmental Information and University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, who analyzed nearly 40 years of hurricane satellite imagery.

    A warming planet may be fueling the increase.

    "Through modeling and our understanding of atmospheric physics, the study agrees with what we would expect to see in a warming climate like ours," says James Kossin, a NOAA scientist based at UW-Madison and lead author of the paper, which is published today (May 18, 2020) in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200518154948.htm
     
  13. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The heat wave hype is what is unprecedented.
    Heat waves and hot air
    Posted on July 15, 2021 by curryja | 23 comments
    by Judith Curry

    Heat waves are the new polar bears, stoking alarm about climate change. Climate scientists addressing this in the media are using misleading and/or inadequate approaches. How should we approach assessing whether and how much manmade global warming has contributed to recent record breaking temperatures? Read on for some outside-the-box thinking on this.



    Continue reading →
     
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  14. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Debunked over a year ago.
    [​IMG]
    Highly Touted Alarmist Hurricane ‘Study’ Sets New Low for Misleading Deception
    Hurricanes May 21, 2020
    "The media are breathlessly touting a cheap new “study” falsely asserting climate change is causing an increase in strong hurricanes. In reality, the study relies on deception, unethical data manipulation, and aggressive misrepresentation of quite normal short-term trends to support its false claim. . . .
    Third, and perhaps most importantly, the authors and their media sock-puppets bury the fact that the authors are reporting on the percentage of tropical storms that become major hurricanes rather than the raw number of major hurricanes. Objective data – as shown in the chart below (see climatlas.com/tropical/frequency_12months.png), show that the number of tropical storms has been declining throughout the time period of the authors’ study. So, the authors and the media can technically claim that the percentage of tropical storms that become major hurricanes is growing, even while there is no increase in the overall number major hurricanes. The percentage of tropical storms that become major hurricanes is largely irrelevant if the overall number of major hurricanes stays the same. If anything, the new study simply illustrates that fewer tropical storms are forming, which would largely be seen as a beneficial climate development. . . . "
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2021
  15. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The study was done by a NOAA scientist and it's not about the number of hurricanes but the strength of hurricanes which the study shows are increasing.
     
  16. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    I take it you did not read the link in #64. The study's claim about strength of hurricanes was precisely what was found to be fraudulent.
     
  17. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You posted this;
    "The media are breathlessly touting a cheap new “study” falsely asserting climate change is causing an increase in strong hurricanes.
    I posted this;
    It was a NOAA scientist who determined hurricane winds are getting stronger. And the scientist did not say there is an increase in strong hurricanes but that hurricanes are getting stronger.
     
  18. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    So what? The point of the link in #64 is that that claim in your link is a lie based on statistical sleight of hand.
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2021
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  19. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    No Tricks Zone

    Comprehensive Data Analysis Shows Hurricane Hours Is Cyclic…Has Fallen Significantly Past 25 Years!

    By P Gosselin on 9. July 2021

    Excerpt:

    Today we look at an analysis by data analyst expert Zoe Phin here of the largest collection of historic hurricane data available: IBTrACS (International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship), kept by the NOAA.

    The dataset archives 13,545 storms going back to 1842, from a total of 14 agencies.

    [​IMG]
    First Zoe notes that it is definitely true the number of detected hurricanes has increased – but this is mainly due to modern sensing technology.

    LINK
     
  20. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    This part was from Jacks link in post 64 you didn't read:

    Highly Touted Alarmist Hurricane ‘Study’ Sets New Low for Misleading Deception

    Selected excerpt


    Third, and perhaps most importantly, the authors and their media sock-puppets bury the fact that the authors are reporting on the percentage of tropical storms that become major hurricanes rather than the raw number of major hurricanes. Objective data – as shown in the chart below (see climatlas.com/tropical/frequency_12months.png), show that the number of tropical storms has been declining throughout the time period of the authors’ study. So, the authors and the media can technically claim that the percentage of tropical storms that become major hurricanes is growing, even while there is no increase in the overall number major hurricanes. The percentage of tropical storms that become major hurricanes is largely irrelevant if the overall number of major hurricanes stays the same. If anything, the new study simply illustrates that fewer tropical storms are forming, which would largely be seen as a beneficial climate development.

    [​IMG]

    From Jacks link you didn't read,

    LINK
     
  21. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Last edited: Jul 17, 2021
  22. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Jack like yourself are comparing apples to oranges. Me may not be seeing more hurricanes but they are getting stronger. This is a video by Jim Kossin a NOAA scientist explaining why hurricanes are becoming stronger.

    [/QUOTE]
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2021
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  23. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    This is a video by Jim Kossin a NOAA scientist explaining why hurricanes are becoming stronger.

    [/QUOTE]
     
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  24. flyboy56

    flyboy56 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Climate scientists are more focused on ocean temperatures. Warmer ocean temperatures is the fuel that makes hurricanes stronger.
     
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  25. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Another blog :roll:

    And it seems our author - Ryan has been a naughty boy

    https://www.desmog.com/ryan-maue/
     

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