What a difference a day makes!

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by alexa, Mar 14, 2017.

  1. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Active Member

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    ...yeah, but the Scots haven't quite figured that out yet... quite happy scavenging cash from others.
     
  2. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    What difference does it make to a person who wishes to drink a whisky, whether the country that whisky came from is in the EU, or the UK?

    Answer: none.

    Trade will continue. The demand remains for the goods regardless of any political outcome as does the availability of supply.

    What won't continue is the unbalanced trade of goods. We will use WTO tariffs to correct this. Which is A what they are for, and B what they are good at and C What we need in this on-going global financial crisis.

    Trade will continue. Those goods we can no longer afford to purchase, we shall not. We shall not take on debt... for our children and grand children to repay to the Germans.
    OMFG.

    Millions have died in this great country and for what? To deliver our children's servitude to they?

    Greedy swine thought they ruled this land. But they do not.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2017
  3. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    OK to give some updates.

    Gordon Brown has stepped in with what he hopes will be the winning way - but before I get to that I will mention what some people may find a somewhat cynical idea by 'wee ginger dug' in the National as to why TMay does not want Scotland to have it's referendum till the Brexit issue is done and dusted

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/15...ingdom_will_be_a_dark__dark_place/?ref=twtrec


    later he makes this point
    It might be worth people checking out how the West may indeed be moving quietly into despotism

    The New Despotism of the 21st Century: Imagining the End of Democracy

    However to return to the idea that May might indeed be planning on selling off some of Scotland's needs for Englands wants in its hard Brexit - well May has been refusing to get into discussions with people from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland despite her initially claiming all would be involved and the deal which would be done would be one which suited everyone. That simply has not happened. May did not even have the respect to acknowledge Nicola's ideas before Nicola felt there was no alternative but to ask for a Referendum. Moreover it has become clear that Scotland would not get the right to decide on anything which would effect her and that once a hard Brexit is achieved Scotland will not have control over the Scottish issues which the EU currently has - more clearly illustrating the need for Independence.

    It is this that Gordon Brown has seen as his way to keep Scotland in the UK and out of the EU. He begins by making a demand that Scotland get £800,000 back from the EU - one has to imagine hoping to get all those who believed in more money from the NHS on side.

    But then he goes on to suggest that Scotland have power over all the issues which concern Scotland


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39314250]

    Kezia Dugdale is the Scottish Labour Leader.

    What is against this and the BBC says much of this but first, he promised Scotland would become a Federal Power as the basis of the Vow. This was not seen to have been produced and hence that and Labour's support for the Tories about Independence in general has been why Labour has become all but a spent force in Scotland. Secondly he is forgetting that one of the big promises given to people on the street was that the only way to guarantee we stay in the EU was to vote for union with the UK - hence we now have people who before did not even consider voting for Independence now believing in it. Third what he is suggesting, that is Federalism in the UK was what John Smith, Brown's good friend hoped to be able to achieve, so that along with a written constitution, the UK would be firmly grounded in Democracy. Blair sold that out as I spoke of in Post 9. I don't think Brown has enough there but he at least does seem, in a round about way, to acknowledge that there is a need for a second Indyref.

    Some of the ideas on possible next move by Nicola


    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/what-are-nicola-sturgeon-options-for.html






     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017
  4. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it will be just the Scots taking part in the next referendum. That fox has been shot.
    UK wide from now on.
    Shall we have devolved parliaments?

    Lets see if they are even wanted at all?

    The referendum has been held. Respect the result and losers will be treated with mercy. Fail to and we hold some more while we are on such a big winning streak.
     
  5. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ok I have now seen the beginning of Brown's speech and the obvious dishonesty, never mind he has said this before but not delivered, really ought to rule it out for any informed people. He claimed that he was offering a solution between two extremists - May who only answers (can't remember) and the SNP on an opposite extreme.

    Am now watching Nicola's Conference speech. As I said earlier she has been trying to get talks going with May. She said these were of two parts, the increase in powers Brown speaks of and a willingness to leave the EU provided we were staying in the single market. May would agree to nothing....so Brown your demands have already been refused though not the one for federalism - which was by the way what a lot of people suggested was the way to go after Indyref 2014 to avoid another one.

    Nicola speaks good. She speaks about the xenophobia which is engulfing the West. She is now calling the SNP a European Internationalist party saying May only speaks for the right of the Tory party which due to Labour tearing itself apart is likely to be in power to at least 2030.

    With regard to a Referendum. It will be passed next week in the Scottish Parliament. She says Scotland will then be looking for the best legal advice ....that she does not believe it will be found that the Scottish Parliament cannot follow it's mandate from the electorate confirmed by it's Parliament and suggests May take time to think again. She says there is no question there will be another referendum.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017
  6. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    Sturgeon can't unite Scotland. That much must be obvious to you.
    She's at war with over half the Scots.
     
  7. WittySocrates

    WittySocrates Active Member

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    I support self-determination but Scotland joining the EU is ridiculous.

    First, how are the other nations with separatism movements going to react to Scotland joining the EU when it will likely spur separatists in their own nation. My guess would be joining the EU wouldn't be as easy as Scotland would like to think

    Second, why on earth would they want to join the EU when it undermines their fiscal sovereignty.
     
  8. RiaRaeb

    RiaRaeb Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I cannot understand why anyone who voted for Brexit is against the break up of another Union, it is time for sovereignty to be returned to the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish. Makes me laugh how they squeal we do not want to be in your club, but the Scottish,Welsh and Irish has to be in ours!
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2017
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  9. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Welcome to the forum.

    It is more about staying in. As I have said a few times at Indyref one, one of the most important things for many people was staying part of the EU. The three leaders who came up made a strong issue that leaving the UK would have Scotland out of the EU and the only way where Scotland could guarantee remaining in the EU was to stay in the UK. People did vote on that. When the Brexit vote came up Nicola tried to get Cameron to agree with Brexit needing the agreement of all 4 countries in the UK. He refused. I bet he regrets that now. Nicola then put on the SNP Scottish Parliament election Campaign, that if there was a significant structural change to the UK, for instance coming out of the EU, that would be the sort of thing to initiate another Referendum. Nicola went as far as she could trying to get May to listen to and accommodate Scotland's needs but to no avail. In the end she was left really with no alternative but to start the process for a new referendum.


    Folks do not necessarily think it would be easy but Nicola has been in contact with them since Brexit. Although I have not seen it myself I have read twice that Spain has said it will make no problems. I also heard a Polish official say that provided it was done under section 30 (that is what May is currently saying must be postponed) it could be just a matter of procedure. This may be linked to Spain's apparent position because it would not give it to Catalonia as well as lets remember the EU does not want to disintegrate and so is not happy with the UK or England and Wales leaving. Several other notable Europeans have said it could be done easily for Scotland. People in Germany have started a petition for special arrangements to be made so that if necessary Scotland can stay rather than leave with the UK and come back! ;)

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/...w_independent_Scotland_to_remain/?ref=rl&lp=1

    Agreed not many on it yet but if need be who knows. ;)

    During the 2014 Indyref I watched the talks the Scottish Gov had with for instance the EU over exactly this. They were in no doubt that although it was part of the EU that new people joining had to go on the Euro, the EU did not say when this had to be and so it was quite possibly to stay with ones own currency for basically as long as one wanted. Obviously with Scotland this could be different. She could though either peg her currency to anywhere else she wanted or bring out a new one. Many people believed Yes lost the last referendum because they didn't decide to have Scotland's own currency but it is possible that that can have issues as well - the time needed to see how it works. That may be why John Swinney has not given an answer on this - or has given five as I have heard.

    The other thing I would like to say is that the only people who are likely to be aggrieved by what Nicola is doing is the hard Brexiteers. For everyone else this ought to make May think again about her hard Brexit -hence make the Brexit softer. I was reading yesterday however that May is reading the daily mail and terrified of any criticism so goodness knows. Nicola said if she acts towards the EU as she did to her no hope of any meaningful discussions.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2017
  10. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    Scottish
    I am not against the break up of a union. Self determination is a high principle.
    The problem for separatists in Scotland, is that they won't settle for self determination. They wish to determine this for all of Scotland and not just themselves.
    Well Scotland has just determined this for itself. They must respect that.

    They can still go for a smaller country of just separatists. "Northern Scotland", "Free Scotland" or whatever.
    They may still leave as individuals.

    But they will not. Because they are fascists. Self determination is not what they seek. They seek power over others.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2017
  11. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    Since Mrs Strugeon has zero more say in Brexit than any other person in the country, I very much doubt Brexiters give a **** what she thinks. Her view doesn't matter any more than mine.
    Especially now the referendum is complete and votes have all been counted and announced.

    Re-fighting battles you've already lost isn't the path to victory. It is just wallowing in your self defeat.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2017
  12. WittySocrates

    WittySocrates Active Member

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    Thank you for the welcome.

    I will preference this by saying that I am not a European but I think my points still stand

    First, I certainly understand the point you are making about staying but that just raises questions about the EU. Is Scotland a new member and therefore required to adopt the Euro or are they not subject to that condition as Scotland has been part of the EU since the UK joined? I would say the former but I suspect the latter.

    Second, It may well be as easy as you say for Scotland to join (It seems you are better informed than I) but it seems to me that Spain would put up a fight about it as they have a vested interest in making independence seem as hard as possible.

    Third, my comment on fiscal sovereignty wasn't simply limited to the Euro itself, which in itself basically strips governments of many tools needed to deal with economic malaise; deficit spending is virtually outlawed by the fiscal compact and that has been a recipe for disaster in many EU nations, particularly Greece, where they have been forced to implement austerity (with no end in sight) which has continued to constrict the economy.

    Last, I think the idea of the EU is sound (I am for an entity similar to EU) but the Greek (and other nations) debt crisis highlighted the deep flaws with the EU as it currently stands and I don't see these flaws being fixed so therefore I must oppose the EU.
     
  13. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    EFTA FTW.

    Seems a reasonable choice.

    But that would be jumping the gun somewhat since Scotland isn't an independent nation and frankly doesn't look like it ever will be in any politically united sense.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2017
  14. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I believe Scotland would be a new member and hence have an obligation to take on the Euro. However this was discussed with the EU prior to the 2014 Indyref which I watched on tv. The EU representatives made clear that there certainly was an obligation for new members to make a commitment to moving to the Euro - however they made equally clear that no one could be forced when to do this which as I say meant you did not need to join unless/until it seemed right. Despite what I hear people say -Scotland will need to go by the Euro, what I heard in the meetings between the Scottish Parliament and the EU was as I say above. We would join with the currency we were using with a commitment to join the Euro but when we did would be absolutely up to us. The Scottish MP's were reassured, no way they could be forced to.

    Really Spain's situation with Catalonia is very different to that of Scotland and England. Scotland is a country in it's own right, Catalonia is not and further it is in their Constitution that regions cannot decide to go alone. Now in the current process, Scotland does need Section 30 to be authorised by Westminster to have their referendum. May is currently saying she is going to withhold this. Up here it is generally thought that will not last long. Scotland hence would be in a very different situation to Catalonia and the EU is considering other countries who have gained Independence from for instance Yugoslavia and England and Wales would not even be part of the EU when Scotland was asking for this...so a very different situation.

    Again I will go back to Indyref 1 and the meetings between the Scottish Parliament and the EU. They were told then that yes, Spain would mouth off a lot and she no doubt would be allowed to do that for a while but then a word would be had with her. In reality because the situation between Scotland and Catalonia is so different, Spain is giving away nothing by accepting Scotland.

    I think Greece's biggest problem was joining the Euro. It is from what I hear also a situation which can never improve so something will need to change.

    There certainly are problems in the EU and the EU is at the moment in a make or break situation where Russia and the far right are trying to disintegrate it and create realignment with Russia. The EU does need to change and I certainly would be interested in that. Here is a group working on that https://diem25.org/

    Respecting Scotland, it is possible she might go at first to being a member of the EEA. This would basically follow what Nicola was willing to accept from May. She said Scotland needed to be part of the Single Market and to have responsibility for those areas currently in control of the EU which would be returned to the UK. Joining the EEA would allow Scotland access to the Single Market and also allow her to decide which areas she wanted to retain control of - for instance fisheries. An additional advantage of this particularly at the beginning would be that she could set her own rate of taxes with non EU countries, for instance England and Wales - that is a possibility though I think more is wanted.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2017
  15. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I think I may be wrong about that. Certainly in 2014 they were not applying as a new country and the advice that was given was given within that context. They were also told they would keep their part of the special deal the UK had made, until it came up for review. I think the SNP are still saying they will not be a new country and will be joining as a country which has been there under the conditions the UK were.

    I should of course have said EFTA/EEA

    https://www.commonspace.scot/articl...a-and-eea-scotlands-post-independence-options



     
  16. diamond lil

    diamond lil Well-Known Member

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    I can't see it happening, Alexa. There is no chance Scotland could stay in the EU without being an independent country.
    What about the currency? No central Bank? Border controls? Trade? Law? How on earth could that be managed?

    As an independent country, Scotland would have a lot to do before it would be able to join. Reducing the massive deficit, for one.

    I think the people of Scotland are , in the main, too canny to fall for the SNP pie in the sky claims this time around.
    Though, to be fair, only quite a small minority fell for them last time.
     
  17. Oddquine

    Oddquine Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, diamond lil, haven't worked out how to do the quote thingie yet.

    That is why we want the referendum before the UK officially leaves. I'm not so sure that we can join the EU without a national currency and a Central Bank...but as transition arrangements can be made for countries not currently compliant with all the joining criteria, that may not be a killer problem. There are people who know what they are talking about looking into all that....and I suspect that they are looking in that direction. If the plans are ready to go after a vote, all that can be up and running by the time negotiations with Westminster are finished.

    We already pay our share of the UK border controls/foreign office/cabinet costs/HMRC/DWP etc ....but don't get many/any jobs in Scotland out of it. Along with debt interest and the MOD, that is part of the billions spent by Westminster "for" Scotland, as opposed to "in" Scotland. Scots Law is a separate entity to that in England, and always has been, as are the NHS, Education etc. If that wasn't the case, we would never have needed a Scottish Office, for which, incidentally, we pay out of our block grant, as we do the Parliament buildings maintenance and running, the wages of all MSPs and staff, Historic Scotland etc and, unlike Westminster, we can't borrow to cover current expenditure.

    We don't have a massive deficit...Westminster has and it has accepted it has to pay it as the "successor" state to all the UK's international club memberships, like the UN. . Scotland had no say in spending any of it. Whatever deficit we have will depend on negotiations against assets, the apportionment of which may well reduce any share of debt...and if we don't get assets, we don't accept liabilities.

    We are hoping that Brexit, austerity, and life under a Tory Government with no end in sight to a Tory fiefdom with few or none of them MPs from Scotland will concentrate minds! We won't need that much of an increase to get at least as decent a majority as there was for Brexit starting from the current base........not nearly as much as we needed to make up to get to that base in 2014in the first place.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2017
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  18. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    Scottish people have the exact same say in Westminster spending as Welsh people and English people and Northern Irish people.
    One man one vote.

    That's it. That's all we get.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2017
  19. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Nicola did not say it was necessary for Scotland to stay in the EU. She accepted Brexit but said that Scotland needed to maintain access to the single market and to have control over Scottish issues which the EU currently controls, rather than such control going to WESTMINSTER.

    I think Oddquine has dealt with this. Much still has to come out and be decided and on the basis of that Scotland would make her decisions.
    Ireland?
    as 80% of Scotland's exports outside the UK are to the EU and a very large percentage of that in the food and drink trade, clearly we have very good reason for not wanting to throw that down the drain and find ourselves out of business due to 30-40% taxes
    We already have out own law.
    Your opinion. On joining EFTA/EEA we would be accepted whereas of course they did not want the UK - being such a large and dominant country. That is definitely there for Scotland. Time will tell whether it is appropriate to join the EU straight away or join them and then decide in a few years when we have settled whether to join the EU. Obviously more information will come out in the next couple of years which will make it easier to see which is the best way.

    and where is our massive debt coming from? Being a part of the UK that is where and that is just going to get worse and worse with this hard Brexit racket so the sooner we get out the better. ......but about debt, I came upon this today......

    there is something a bit fishy going on about Scotland's debt and not only Scotland's debt but all of the devolved Nations because it appears that they who are only 16% of the population of the UK hold 57% of the UK deficit.
    https://yesindyref2.wordpress.com/2016/10/17/devolved-deficits/

    It wasn't just the SNP who were working for Independence last time and it is not this time and of course people will be as they always are - some will do research and some will not. Some were mad enough to believe the three 'Amigos' who came up and told them the only way we could guarantee staying in the EU was if they voted to remain in the UK. A few other things the far right Tory Government has forgotten which were promised then

    https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2017/03/20/the-things-theresa-forgot/

    Never mind that every penny you would ever see would disappear in a trice and of course that pensioners would lose their pensions and we would be sending all out EU nationalists home and on and on and on

    There could not be a better time to take the plunge. A hard Brexit will hit Scotland hard. Making the change to Independence at the same time as rUK is going through the consequences of it is the best time to go through it.

    Even William Hill has odds on favourite that a second Scottish Referendum would win and we would do way better than staying part of the UK stuck for the next twenty years or so with a hard right government which likely will get worse and worse. May has every reason to be afraid of a second ScotRef as this one will almost certainly produce Independence and leave England and Wales to the Independence England so wanted.

    Brexit makes the economics of Scottish independence much more attractive

    Welcome back Diamond lil
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2017
  20. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    rest of UK is Scotlands largest export market. 80% of all your exports perhaps. (loose guess).
    Single market with us, or single market with them.
    You can't have both.

    So you can have 80% of 20% with them, or 100% of 80% with us.


    S Ireland is going to have to make this choice too. It is not beyond my imagination that they will be leaving the EU, now that we aren't going to be in it.
    I think Tanzania for example instantly dropped their EU dealings since we said we were going to.
    What is the point of a country whose primary trading partner is the UK, being in an EU trade deal now? None.

    If that's your idea of an attractive economic argument, you aren't going to get many takers with it.

    Us or them matey. That's the way it is.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2017

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