What Could Have Provoked The Soviets To Attempt A Military Solution in 1985-91 time frame?

During Able Archer, Russians placed their forces on high alert, deployed the nuclear arsenal from silos to start positions. According to their doctrine they wear supposed to place their intercontinental missiles to 1 minute ready status (it is not known if they did, but I see no reason not to follow the procedure when the rest of the nukes are distributed to battle ready status).

I do not think this can be considered as a sign, that someone in Russian high command believed that NATO have secretly developed a “no first use” policy, and is just too shy to show it to the world.

 

There are different opinions about how serious the Soviets actually took the possibility of a NATO first strike being launched with the exercise as a cover.

In particular it has been indicated that at least one Soviet Air Force regiment (normally 21 aircraft IIRC) had nuclear weapons taken out of storage and loaded in anticipation of a retaliatory strike (or possibly even a first one if the Soviets believed NATO attack was eminent).

Based on what I've read about the Soviet Air Force I believe the aircraft in question would've been SU-24 Fencer's each carrying two nuclear weapons. For redundancy, the regiment would've probably had at least two aircraft assigned to each target which means the 21 aircraft would've been assigned 10 targets for nuclear strikes.

 

There is lots of questions about how far the Soviets actually went in readying their nuclear forces.

 

Really? If the Soviets nearly launched an attack due to Able Archer, a communications exercise that didn't even involve actual military forces and no blood was shed, yet they would undoubtedly (according to you) hang fire because of an incident in their own waters where some of their people were killed?

 

The Soviet frigate that brushed the Yorktown was half the U.S. ships size and its captain would note he had only two missiles aboard.

The Soviet frigate that brushed the Caron was only one fourth the Caron's size.

Small things can trigger great conflagrations. Who would've thought that Archduke Ferdinand's ham handed assassination (and he wasn't even liked in the Empire anyway) would lead to one of history's worst wars?

 

Well, looks as if we are not going to know the real scope any time soon. It is said about all aircraft in Germany and Poland. In USSR there wear no leaks of Nuclear handling information into public, this area is very closed. No selfee photos of me and my buddy sitting on a nuke, no stories in internet how we managed to drown our missile carrier in a mud pool.

There is a bit of difference between a preparation for a Nuclear strike in form of Changing Defcon to launch ready, secretly shifting 19000 troops to Europe (Russians though it was same action), relocating command and control to War time command center (Including President), changing codes, employing radio silence on large scale, some b52 flights wear openly slipped-called as nuke strikes. Would you not get worried a bit?
And:
Two idiot ships venturing into Russian territorial waters that got sunk by other idiots.
In the first case we are talking about the end of the world as we know it. In the second case we are talking about Idiots. Yes, there will be a reply, there will be political consequences, but we are talking about a stupid decision that was supposed to prove some stupid concept, with 0 harm and 0 potential harm, to Mother Russia or Russian large scale interests.

Are you talking about a point blank shootout, cowboy stile?
This is one of the smallest and simplest weapons they place on small-medium ships
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AK-630
imagine it firing from 50 meters. If we are talking about a 1 minute fire fight, I think both ships would put enough steel and lead into each other to disable (In a normal engagement Russian ships stood no chance, I agree). Next step - shore defenses.

Absolutely. But it does not matter how small or big Casus Belle is. It is up to a question if the sides want to use it. The war would erupt in any case, if it would not be the assassination, another ridiculous reason would be brought up, like in 1939 with the radio station.

Another issue
You are trying to find a Casus Belle for USSR to invade Europe. Such a reason would work if the Russians would "want" to invade Europe.
But conquering Europe means extreme costs + extreme risks, with not so much political or economical gain (which might survive the war).
If you want USSR to attack Europe you need to think up a reason that would “force” them to, not “allow” it to.

 

All points taken. Perhaps Tom Clancy's scenario where the destruction of the Soviets biggest and most advanced refinery (and the major oil fields nearby) leaves them very low on petroleum (for about three years the novel suggests) is not as far fetched as one might initially think. After all, oil was a major factor in motivating Operation Barbarossa and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

 

In the nonfiction book "World War Three" compiled by Shelford Bidwell in 1978, it contains a scenario at the end for a Soviet invasion of West Germany.

The reason is a West Germany with a right wing government and disappointed that its NATO allies (mainly the British and Americans) are not spending enough to adequately defend West Germany announce they are building their own nuclear weapons.

The Soviets are outraged and when a West German scientist "leaks" the information that the country has already assembled some fission devices at a secret research facility west of Hamburg, the Soviets attack.

It eventually leads to all out nuclear war when the British fire off four tactical nuclear weapons to save their beleaguered forces on the North German Plain.

 

I do not want to argue about a book . The author has absolute right to develop the story the way he likes it and if he says that Russian 125 mm shells bounce off the frontal armor of a1m1, than it is so.

But, from historical side, this particular scenario have happened.
The Pakistan developed a nuke. When Russians wear engaged in Afghanistan, the Pakistan was a long and trusted enemy of USSR and India. Nothing can be easier than thinking up a Casus Belle against a government that was extremely related to Taliban, Al-Qaeda, CIA, narcotic trafficking, slave trafficking, e.t.c. (I am in no way offending the Pakistanian, each side has its own truth. I am talking about how a Casus Belle explanation would look in a Russian Newspaper). In case of a nuclear threat to Mother Russia, Russians would cleanse Afganistan and Pakistan in no time. Most likely without use of nuclear power, but then again why not? India is very likely to engage on Russian side because they need the water supply, they think that many parts of Pakistan are India, and to deny China access to the region.

But this newer happened. Even in favorable conditions, with no nuclear threat, with strong ally, USSR did not engage in an all out war in case of a nuclear weapon development. Not profitable and too much blood.

Germans developing an uberwaffe, whats new? .

But from as a thought experiment, this scenario is much more interesting than the one of Tom Clancy delusions.