What do you make of "Omicron" (COVID Variant B.1.1.529)? Big deal? No big deal?

The real BS is they vaccinating will make it go away. Zero proof of that.

 

How do you figure?

They say, and no one disagrees, that is it contagious and mild.

Arguing for the sake of arguing?

 

Oh, you think they should let everyone in to infect people and gain herd immunity? Is that it? Sounds pretty reckless until they know for sure it is mild enough to not get people sick.

 

Psst.. Covid vaccines are readily available in the US...Psst...only certain groups are highly susceptible to Covid - the elderly and those with multiple co-morbidities.

 

You are claiming what they said as BS.

 

Are you saying it is NOT contagious and mild? That's that they are saying and I believe it.

I am saying YOUR claim about only vaccinated getting sick from it is BS.

 

They are also saying the only ones showing symptoms are the vaccinated.

 

Pollycy, thanks as usual for your kind words, and here is what can be said as of today.

We need to have the following questions answered, regarding the Omicron variant. Answers will come one by one in the next few-to-several weeks.

1. Can it compete with Delta, and then spread and overcome Delta, becoming the predominant variant? (or in other words, how contagious is it?)
2. What are the odds or the likelihood of catching it for people with basic vaccination but no booster, people with basic vaccination and booster, unvaccinated people, and people treated with monoclonal antibodies (and for each of these categories, we need to further divide them into people who had Covid-19 before and people who never had Covid-19)? (or in other words, how well does it evade antibodies of various kinds, the vaccine-induced ones, the natural disease-induced ones, and the artificial ones?)
3. Is it more or less severe than Delta, or equally severe as Delta (and the previous variants), for people with basic vaccination but no booster, people with basic vaccination and booster, unvaccinated people, and people treated with monoclonal antibodies (and for each of these categories, we need to further divide them into people who had Covid-19 before and people who never had Covid-19)? (or in other words, how lethal is it in these various situations?)

So, we already have, as of today, the answer to question number 1. The latest genomic survey from South Africa found 74% of Omicron and 26% of Delta among the positive cases in their population. So in a matter of days or weeks it became the predominant variant there. So, yes, it can compete with Delta, it can spread and overcome it, and it can become the predominant variant in a given geographic area where it is in direct competition with Delta, and it can do so in a matter of days or weeks, which suggests that it is more infectious than Delta. We don't have a firm R number yet, but it does seem like it will be above Delta's, otherwise it wouldn't have been able to dislodge Delta so easily in South Africa. Remember, South Africa's own Beta variant did not prevail against Delta, and pretty much fizzled. It is looking rather certain that Omicron is prevailing against Delta.

We do not have firm answers to questions numbers 2 and 3 yet.

Question 2 depends on specific neutralizing cell culture lab tests done with the plasma of people in those situations to verify if their antibodies neutralize the variant (and tests with the monoclonal antibodies), and it depends on epidemiological observation of the real life behavior of the variant, with the percentage of new cases in each category of vaccination and treatment statuses. We'll need a few weeks to run the lab tests and several weeks to learn the epidemiological data.

Question 3 simply depends on looking at the symptoms and outcomes of people infected with Omicron, comparing them to the known symptoms and outcomes, found in databases, of similar groups of people (for age, gender, underlying medical conditions, vaccination status, and treatments received) infected with the original virus, and the globally spreading Alpha and Delta variants. We will need to consider the lag that exists between infection, first symptoms, need for hospitalization, and death, which can run up to 5-6 weeks. Also, running these retrospective studies is time-consuming.

I'd say that by the end of January we'll have solid answers to most of the questions above.

Do we have some hints and preliminary answers?

Like I said, for question #1 we just got a definitive answer.

Regarding question number 2, there are anecdotal cases that suggest a bigger rate of re-infection with Omicron than with Delta, which would suggest some degree of antigenic drift. Again, short of well-controlled labs and population surveys that would eliminate confounding factors such as, pandemic fatigue might be making people expose themselves more therefore making them more subject to re-infection, we can't take these anecdotes at face value, thus, it is still too early to know.

Regarding question number 3, there are preliminary, anecdotal reports of mild cases, and there is the fact that as of now, nobody has died yet from a confirmed case of Omicron which is certainly encouraging. While this suggests mild disease, it's not proven yet, because anecdotal reports can miss the big picture due to confounding factors (e.g., the first hot spot was in a university campus in South Africa, therefore, among young and healthy people who might have had mild disease with Delta too anyway), and because not enough time has passed to get over the above-mentioned lag between infection, hospitalization, and death.

----------

Certainly Omicron has the potential to be a problem given its high number of mutations, and given that question number 1 has already been answered in the affirmative. But it also has the potential to be more of a solution than a problem, if it indeed results in much milder disease, which would add to a population's natural immunity without resulting in too many hospitalizations and deaths.

I think that the above is the most accurate and most up-to-date reasoning on this new variant that can be had at this time. New data that will allow us to resolve all of the above questions will be dripping in, little by little. For now, all that we can do is monitor the situation, and continue to use the mitigation strategies that are already available to us (get vaccinated, get a booster if you're eligible, wear a high-quality mask - such as an American-made N95 respirator - with good seal, social distance, avoid crowded indoor spaces, wash your hands).

-----------

If Omicron does become a problem, there are two solutions in the pipeline: a future Moderna and/or Pfizer vaccine that will have been tweaked to the Omicron variant, and future approval/distribution of oral antiviral medications that hit all present and future variants, like Pfizer's Paxlovid™ (PF-07321332 + ritonavir), given that they target processes that all variants equally have.

Based in all of the above, as of now it's time for concern and monitoring, but definitely not time for panic.

 

Second US case in Minnesota, a young man who only traveled recently to New York City, no relationship with Southern African countries. Therefore, there is already community spread of Omicron in the United States. Fully vaccinated man, got symptoms on 11/22, got tested on 11/24, mild case, symptoms have already resolved.

 

Since you are a doctor, I'd like to ask about my theory about a highly contagious but mild variant being beneficial in the sense that lot of people would get infected without getting sick. Wouldn't that provide for immunity?

 

Fauci is a lying farce. He's the highest paid employee in the Federal government and he has been there, no kidding, since LBJ. I think America has had enough of this lying troll.

 

It's so pathetic... the woke-libs are so anxious to find any way to make Geriatric Joe and his gaggle of incompetents look diligent, but their 'talking head doctor', the wonderous Anthony Fauci, thinks he can deflect attention from the staggering NEGLIGENCE shown by every idiot in Biden's regime in letting approximately 400,000 illegal aliens loose in the country where they can easily spread any one of a number of different diseases?! .

They really do believe the rest of us are as oblivious as they are!

 

Pro-line- FL
So you repost a reply by Hoosier 8 and attribute that to me? How does that work??

 

Got a link to this Globalist " Brain Child "?
You think it's wrong to make a new statement when new information becomes available? But if you want to list contradictions, go ahead. We'll see if the message changed because new information became available.
Link that shows they, who is they, don't consider natural immunity?
They do recommend to wait 6 months before a vax shot if they had covid, why? If they don't consider it?

After all that, what control is it you think Biden wants or has got? Your original claim.

 

Many countries rolled out the vaccine about the same time. Not sure the USA was even the 1st to give out shots.

 

From what I hear, omicron is very mild. I would consider getting omicron as an alternative to the vaccine. I just don't know if immunity from omicron would provide effective immunity from prior strains. I have the antibodies from the original and am not worried about it.

 

It's not Biden himself. You know as well as I do he does not run the show. We'll refer to it as the "Biden Crime Family Brain Trust". Here is the plan..... Keep China Virus variants alive (they always will be until they are reduced to nothing but a common cold) At least until November of '22. That way we can justify more mail in ballots without a reason......it just 'cause we're all ascared! It is an easy way to do the fraud thing. Democrats of the past have even complained about it, but now it works for them!!

 

I see, you follow QAnon thoughts.
If the economy is open, then mail in ballots will only be as it was prior. Or where States have put in place

 

Well, I'll wait for your correction, attributing to me what others have said. But they DO let everyone in to infect people on our Southern Border, but St. Fauci says that is a different issue. I will say this...."the science says unvaccinated illegal aliens can spread the China Virus just as easy as Patriotic American Citizens. Why are they given preferential treatment? Because Fauci is in the tank....that's why!

 

I don't know anything about Breitbart or Q Anon......but the only explanation by common sense would be my reasoning. Health is not the issue. If it was, they would protect our Southern border. Instead they infuse the country with illegals they no nothing about. Paranoia is what they promote with absolutely no regard for the "natural immunity" many have. It is all just too contradictory for most non-Marxist Americans to swallow.

 

You must know something about Breitbart, for I never mentioned them.
Health is not a big issue, that's why they are shutting down the economy.
There's nothing contradictory, unless one is a conspiracy theorist, like QAnon folks are.

 

So checking the vaccine status and mandatory masking of those that fly in our Airports is not contradictory compared to the thousands of illegals escorted to the interior that don't wear masks or have proof of vaccine. You probably bought into the Jussie Smolet ruse!

 

We have affective vaccines, there are just the two groups most susceptible to Covid: (1) the elderly (2) those with multiple co-morbidities and we now know the most affective quarantines are the quarantining of the most susceptible to Covid from everyone else and the quarantining of the Covid-sick from the non-Covid-sick.

I think everyone should quit freaking out about number of Covid cases. Open up the country. Besides, all the 'measures' used to reduce or stop the number of Covid cases actually puts much more of a strain on our already overworked hospital system, so, for the sake of the hospital system, medical establishment should quit worrying about number of Covid cases.

 

I quoted both. Ever use the multi-quote function?

Try it. Its easy..........and fun.