What happens if Putin pushes into a NATO country?

Discussion in 'Security & Defenses' started by pjohns, Mar 27, 2014.

  1. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    I have consistently argued that, if push comes to shove, NATO will not allow Russia to encroach upon its territory--including any of the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania). And I continue to believe that.

    Still, others believe otherwise--perhaps because NATO is only a shell of its former self.

    Here is a bit from an article in The Week on this matter:

    Here is the link to the entire article: The tiny Estonian town that could spell the end of NATO - The Week
     
  2. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    NATO is hardly a "shell". In fact, it has the most experienced combat troops in the world, having fought in multiple conflicts over the last 25 years.
     
  3. Wizard From Oz

    Wizard From Oz Banned at Members Request

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    Yes I certainly not want to pick a fight with them. And we know historically, NATO will react
     
  4. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Personally, I see to many connections to what Russia is doing now, and Germany in the early to mid 1930's.

    Pushing the boundaries, seeing how the rest of the world will react, trying to get as much as he can without conflict. And until the nations he is harassing start to fight back, it will continue.

    Ukraine is in a tough spot, and a lot of it is of their own creation. Unlike many other nations, they decided to not join NATO, so are therefore on their own. If they had joined NATO 4 years ago, this would not have happened. Russia would have made some ugly faces, NATO would have staged "military preparedness drills" in the Ukraine, and Russia would have backed off.

    I would suggest that the Ukraine try to fix that situation fast, or enjoy being part of the New Russian Empire.
     
  5. Xanadu

    Xanadu New Member

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    The problem is the propaganda of this pushing and the harrasments, that millions of Europeans see. The reaction is fear or other emotional responses like 'he's insane', or 'he's a Hitler' (the comparing) (will all cause rise in emotion) of a new threat (amplified by propaganda), and this will cause political change in all European countries (a shift to the more radical political parties and leaders is the result, which looks like a repeat of the 1930's. That image (when people really start to believe that) is going to be the big problem more and more.

    This time Putin is the 'bad guy' (playing the bad guy, because it is all one big revolutionary act, which will cause real fear, a major problem (because in millions European their eyes the threat looks real and feels real)
    A repeat of history will cause opposition and resistance, so organisation of millions, and this organisation can lead to a repeat of history.

    To start a great war first mass organisation of Europeans must being accomplished (in Russia that is clearly done by using the Ukraine conflict, and one day the threat from NATO)
    The same strategy worked back than, so it will work again? (not until you see how it is all done)

    The biggest problem is revolutionary motion in populations (the growth of movements or new growth via opposition to a movement) This is what's needed first to reach a massive anti-Russia movement (and in Russia a massive anti-NATO movement)

    European and Russian people should not wake up from a repeat of the 1930's (because that awakening can cause movements and/or anti-movements, organisation via politics or revolts), but should not move at all.
    Shouldn't be part of a movement, but this is a problem (emotion is very old, and deception/propaganda is very powerful, especially via large televison screens, and people always follow their instincts, don't think that deep)
    People are controllable by using fear, deception and politics (manipulation of people's thoughts)
     
  6. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    How about not putting in things I did not say, or inserting things I did not thought.

    I never said he was Hitler (in fact, I never even said that name). I do not think he is insane, stupid, or "like Hitler". I simply am drawing a comparison to the behavior of Germany prior to throwing out the limitations of the Treaty of Versailles. Nothing more, and nothing less.

    However, even the leader of Germany at the time admitted privately that if Europe had threatened to confront him, he would have backed down. And in this case, there is really nothing that the Ukraine can do, because they have decided to not join NATO.

    However, I expect this to continue until Russia either controls or has Finlandized every non-NATO nation in the region. Simply because they know they can, and there is not a damned thing that can be done to stop it.
     
  7. mutmekep

    mutmekep New Member

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    Science fiction scenario.
     
  8. Wizard From Oz

    Wizard From Oz Banned at Members Request

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    I am not yet sold on the German connection, but I could be very easily proved wrong by Russia's actions. The transfer of the Crimea into the Russian sphere seems a natural event to me. Allowing to become part of the Ukraine seems very artificial to me. I think people need to get out of their head the Russians are some military juggernaut now, those days are gone. While I am sure their troops are as well trained as ever, the military budget has seen a lot of their better equipment become run down, and not as effective as say in the Warsaw pact days.

    The other problem we have is deciding what is the propaganda and what is real. Both nations have been depicted as various form of despotic governments and extremist movements. So I think right now the President and NATO are playing right, some punitive actions to show intent, and a promise to bare their teeth in Putin tries anything on.
     
  9. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Simply look at the countries Russia is trying to push hardest on, and which it is handling with kid gloves.

    Could you see them trying to rip a piece off of say Poland? Or Lithuania? Or Romania?

    Of course not, because they all belong to NATO.

    But Tajikistan? Georgia? Ukraine? Why not, it is not like anybody is going to step in and tell them to stop, is there?
     
  10. Wizard From Oz

    Wizard From Oz Banned at Members Request

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    And trust me I am definitely a realist. We could wake tomorrow to news the Russians are on the move, and I will be the first to say I am wrong. But right now we can only take Putins actions on face value........but yes definitely be prepared
     
  11. twed

    twed Banned

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    we do what we SHOULD have done in the late 40's, and that's nuke all significant Russian military targets. We shojuld have bought every last oz of radioactive material when the Soviet Union collapsed, and imported every last guy who knew anything about such things. Then Russia would have been no threat at all, ever again.
     
  12. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Sad thing is, when I combine all of those things (Ukraine, Face, Putin), this is the image I end up with:

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Battle3

    Battle3 Well-Known Member

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    Without the will to use those troops, they are worthless. If obama uses the military in the Ukraine, it will go just like all the other obama wars, obama will pull out as soon as its politically feasible irrespective of the military situation. obama will leave it worse than it started.

    And I doubt Germany, France, or the UK will do anything. They are too dependent upon Russian fuel, and have weak politicians.
     
  14. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Why are you taking the stance that this is all about President Obama? He is not the cause for everything in the world. And we are not talking about the US, but NATO. Europe is more then able to decide to take action on their own, without the US. The US is a major player in NATO, but it in and of itself is not NATO.

    And trust me, there are member nations of NATO that do take Russia very seriously, like Poland and the other former Warsaw Pact nations. Do not expect them to sit idly back and do nothing as Russia gobbles up one after the other.
     
  15. Battle3

    Battle3 Well-Known Member

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    Read the post. I mentioned obama (the US side of NATO, which no matter what you believe is and despite obama's best efforts is still the backbone of NATO), and the major European nations.

    Everyone takes Russia seriously, thats not the point. The question is, who will act if Putin tries to take the Ukraine? Poland, the Baltics? Ridiculous and futile. Only a handfull of nations have the military and/or political power to influence Putin and those nations are run by weak willed people, and those European nations are dependent upon Russian energy.

    Putin has a very strong hand and may gamble that a blatant move will end NATO, but if Putin is wrong then he could be in very serious trouble.
     
  16. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Likely nobody, unless the UN steps up and starts to do it's job.

    The Ukraine is not part of NATO, so it does not apply. Is like if you had asked in the 1980's what the Warsaw Pact would do if Argentina attacked England.
     
  17. Flemish Conservative

    Flemish Conservative New Member

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    First of all, there is no indication that Russia is considering attacking a NATO-country.
    If it were to do so, this would be pretty suicidal for Vladimir Putin, since there isn't a shred of doubt the full military might of the US (and the rest of NATO) would be used to stop Russia and to render it defenceless. This would not involve nuclear weapons. The Russian military is simply not strong enough to withstand NATO's conventional forces.
     
  18. Yazverg

    Yazverg Well-Known Member

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    There is one big difference (In fact it is a lot, but mind at least this one). After the WW1 a great nation was living in a tight space having no possibility to grow. German engineers needed resources and labour force to establish its manufactury and legendary pieces of engineering masterpieces. So Hitler was enlighting his people with the idea of a superior nation that has a destiny to spread and rule the world.
    Now Russia has far more than enough of resources and land to work with and to develop. Putin is not talking about the superiority and if he starts he would lose the ratings. Russians don't want any power over the ukrainians, that's why Crimea was incorporated into Russia by the will of Russians of Crimea. If it was an invasion of german style there would be completely different rhetorics. Which is a change of regime, an enslavery of lower nations etc. It is vivid at the example of crimean tatars who hasn't received anything during these 23 years and are to get a lot of investments from Russia.



    This would only happen if your propaganda over TV is true. And BTW the puppets that seized power in Kiev have been dreaming of NATO for more than a decade... Joining NATO and EU is the main promise that US-puppets can give to those who support them. They never promised an independent country, a strong country, a developed country. They are promising EU and NATO. But for some reason neither EU nor NATO haven't accepted Ukraine so far. :) Try to think why it happens and maybe you come to an idea that Russia would protect russians from anyone, which includes NATO as well.
     
  19. Yazverg

    Yazverg Well-Known Member

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    You tried. You failed. And since you have been wanting to kill all the russian kids for 70 years just for being russian - try to understand that no soldier or man in Russia would think twice before firing into an american. Try to understand that this is not a russian hostility but an ability to protect itself at least of the plague that is tired of swallowing continents and nations. If there is someone that can stop you - it's us. You can live with it or die with it. The choice is yours. :)
     
  20. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Wow, talk about all kinds of fail.

    For one, nobody can guarantee a country success. And anybody promising so should not be trusted with anything.

    And the US can't offer a damned thing about the EU, it is not even a member in any way, shape or form.

    And NATO was more then willing to accept the Ukraine. It was the Ukraine that pulled it's request to join NATO.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...65/Ukraine-drops-Nato-membership-pursuit.html

    Wow, this would be funny if it was no so sad that people actually appear to believe that bag of coprolite.

    And yes, that withdrawl to join NATO was by the same Viktor Yanukovych that is now in exile in Russia, and has been trying to get Russia to assist him in taking back the Ukraine by force.
     
  21. Yazverg

    Yazverg Well-Known Member

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    That's not what I meant. Would you vote for Obama if he promised you a membership in EU or in BRICKS or in the league of arabic states referring to cultural traditions, speed of development or high social standards? If Putin was promising anything like it he would get about 4-5% at the elections. Now feel the difference?

    Ukraine was waiting for years, but NATO didn't accept their bids. Cannon fodder is not very popular as having as friend. Slaves are better. Noone will protest in NY or DC. Then in October 2013 Yanukovich decided not to be a slave and cannon fodder and to make a sharp turn to Russia. This ended up with the coup in Kiev when the mercenaties most possibly killed some fresh ukrainian meat to meet the needs of good TV show. Then threr occured bloody invasion which goes without any killed people. This is the story of NATO-Ukraine relationship in brief.

    The story of NATO relationship with Russia goes back to 1954 long before the USSR made its own military bloc.USSR tried to enter NATO first. Then there was an attempt of Russia to enter it. As for now Russia is really making a very hostile policy towards NATO... Because it is located very near to NATO military bases... :) It is your choice to think that NATO is a peaceful group of white knights of the round table. But this is only for internal use. Unforunately some people have never seen anything good from NATO.

    I would tell you more! Some years ago there was an advertisment on ukrainian TV telling how good it is in the EU and NATO. Guess the name of a bloody dictator who started this propaganda and confirmed the course of the Ukraine to EU and NATO... :) How many tries do you want to make the right guess?! :))))

    Yanukovich fled to Russia, because he would be killed like Gaddafi if he didn't. If by any chance you mes up with the sexual perverts who own the brains of a recently great nation then you would also have to flee to some country which can guarantee you safety and freedom of actions. Do you know any country like that? Snowden did.
     
  22. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    "What happens if Putin pushes into a NATO country? "

    Taxcutter says:
    He takes it. There is nothing to stop him.

    Hussein Obama neutered the US military. The rest of NATO is too busy doling out free stuff to take up the slack.

    Sorry, Latvia.
     
  23. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    How about the fact that NATO was pissed off at the Ukraine for good reasons?

    Does Tapegate sound familiar?

    You know, that little incident in 2000 when audiotapes of President Kuchma's private conversations were released. Included in them was plans to circumvent the UN arms blockade on Iraq, the kidnapping and murder of political opponents, and plans to extort money and supplies from NATO while refusing any participation from the Ukraine itself.

    And then you seem to think that NATO was trying to exploit the Ukraine!

    As I keep saying, what kind of history or research do some of you do? Because obviously it is pretty pathetic.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/in-tapegate-vortex-more-trouble-stirs.html
    http://www.bloggledygook.com/bloggledygook/2005/04/ukraine_update__1.html
    https://sites.google.com/site/abdymok/articles/tapegate-1/tapegate
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/monitoring/media_reports/1681856.stm

    Now please try again, shall we? How about NATO held off because the Ukraine was looking like another failed government, that could not be trusted? Think that is actually closer to the truth then the koolaid you are trying to pass off?

    You see, the more you know, the more you grow.
     
  24. Yazverg

    Yazverg Well-Known Member

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    Of course, it does. And it is very interesting.

    Facts.
    1) 2000 is the date when Russia went from the control of US agents completely and started its own game under Putin. Once this game started former soviet republics including Ukraine were interested in it. And Kouchma didn't exclude a possibility to get closer with Russia.
    2) Soon after that one of the opposition journalists was found without a head and the tapes where Kouchma didnt exactly order to kill him but showed some unpleasant characteristics appeared.
    3) This story was the leading one to get crowds of people to the streets and to introduce a President in a result of US-ukrainian type of democracy, i.e. ignoring the procedure of elections and supporting a media picture of good and bad guys.
    4) Soon after that everything that has ever been written by Gongadze became for a short time the truth. Because the main proof was that bad guys took off the head from a good guy, which means that he obviously spoke the truth.
    5) Kouchma was not prosecuted and sentenced.
    6) For years Ukraine appeared under the rule of not Kouchma but strongly pro-western Yushenko, who ended up as useless clown with a rating at about 3%.

    As long as there are no actual proofs with this scandals and only supposition I would dare to make mine. Why do you think that CIA couldn't pick up a journalist who wrote insane blatant lies which would appear suitable as the truth, take his head off, provoke Kouchma for an unpleasant remarks about Gongadze and use it in the press? :) You think it is impossible because they are on the side of the good guys or what? :)

    That is a fact. Soon after orange revolution Ukraine has cut new nuclear bombers instead of selling it to Russia for very good money... Who do you think benefited from this decision? :)))

    Let's try to estimate pathetic sides of history once we finished sharing facts and interpretations, ok? Because otherwise there will not be a conversation.

    1) Is Yushenko and Kouchma the same person? (My answer: No)
    2) What was the program of Yushenko once he came to power (My answer: He wante to make Ukraine a part of EU and NATO)
    3) What interfered NATO to accept Ukraine at that point 10 years ago? (My answer: ukrainian people didn't want EU and NATO)
    4) What was the strategy of Yanukovich once he came to power? (My answer: He continued the policy of his predecessor, which was EU and NATO)
    5) Why did Yanukovich turned away from his strategy last year? (My answer: Because it became obvious to him that without Russia's support Ukraine will get bankrupt and the west wouldn't do anything to feed 40 mln people)
    6) Why wasn't Ukraine become a part of EU and NATO during more then 10 years period after 'tapegate' that was so differently presented in Ukraine and in the West? (My answer: that was not a plan from the very beginning. Ukrainians for the west are just another cannon fodder in their war against Russia. Russia managed to restore peace in Chechnya. So now west forbids their stars to visit peaceful region. Why? Isn't the life of people the main value? :) )

    You can give your answers.

    I agree 100%. So if you agree with it yourself - that would be a nice start. I also agree with the characteristics of Ukraine as of a failed state. No state should allow other people to rule and to make decisions that should have been done internally. If I was the president of Ukraine I would never choose between EU and Russia. Understanding that there are 2 different sides in my country I would never try to make them both the same. Difference is good enough to make the money on this diversity.It is very good that a country has lots of different nations. This diversity can make a country a great country. So the economics should base on respecting the interests of all the sides. I would never give away the possibility for ukrainian sugar and will at least try to get a decent proposal for exporting ukrainian grain. Discussing the free-trade zone with EU I would definetely share the risks that russian will get because of it... Yanukovich didn't read the agreement! Yatsenyuk after reading it also had to remove it from the agreement signed. The signed agreement is just a 'political part' which is represented by items 1-2 and 8 if I remember it correctly of the whole agreement. That's a joke! I would fancy if the Ukraine managed to be independent after the USSR collapsed. An independent state of 40 mln people in such a favourable position and climate and resources can get very good results and perform a very sane policy which could set up peace and prosperity for neighbouring countries... which never happened.
     
  25. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    And after reading that, I completely lost any interest in anything you had to say. Have a nice day, I do not even try to have rational conversations with nutcases, conspiracy theorists, Scientologists, or the deranged.
     

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