What, in your opinion, are the odds of a civil war in America in the next 10 years?

Discussion in 'Opinion POLLS' started by Turin, Oct 7, 2021.

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What, in your opinion, are the odds of a civil war in America in the next 10 years?

  1. 0%

    24 vote(s)
    46.2%
  2. 1-10%

    12 vote(s)
    23.1%
  3. 11-20%

    1 vote(s)
    1.9%
  4. 21-30%

    3 vote(s)
    5.8%
  5. 31-40%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. 41-50%

    4 vote(s)
    7.7%
  7. 51-60%

    2 vote(s)
    3.8%
  8. 61-70%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. 71-80%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. 81-90%

    1 vote(s)
    1.9%
  11. 91-99%

    2 vote(s)
    3.8%
  12. 100%

    3 vote(s)
    5.8%
  1. Turin

    Turin Well-Known Member

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    What, in your opinion, are the odds of a civil war in America in the next 10 years?
     
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  2. Turin

    Turin Well-Known Member

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    I personally put the likeliness in the 90% range. I think its almost impossible at this point to avoid mass violence in this country.

    I dont think there will be drawn battle lines like in a traditional war, but more akin to how Ireland was in the 80's and 90's.
     
  3. Nonnie

    Nonnie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    0%
     
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  4. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    So what do you plan to do, bombings or targeted assassinations?
     
  5. DennisTate

    DennisTate Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In a way.....
    what is happening between now and the Spring of 2022 is something of a Civil War?!


    I believe that it will be over before June of 2022... but I have to admit that I am biased......
     
  6. Turin

    Turin Well-Known Member

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    Survive.
     
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  7. LiveUninhibited

    LiveUninhibited Well-Known Member

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    If it happened, it would probably be somewhat like The Troubles, but odds I'd say would be more like 10%. What's required is a further decay of law and order so that state governments are at odds with each other and the federal government and are corrupt enough to look the other way when somebody on their side does something horrible (like Trump and the Jan 6 rioters) - otherwise any conflict would be quickly suppressed by people getting found out and arrested. It's harder to hide in modern society.

    I really hope someday the right either comes to their senses or we split up the US into multiple countries. Texas and California do not belong together.

    I don't think there is a constitutional way to save America, ultimately.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2021
  8. Seth Bullock

    Seth Bullock Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Civil war means giving up something.

    Americans aren’t going to do that. No chance.
     
  9. Turin

    Turin Well-Known Member

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    If they think that ultimately the long term gain is worth more than the immediate loss, I dont see that as a barrier.
     
  10. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    None of the above.

    Somewhere between 0% and 0,01%.
     
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  11. Seth Bullock

    Seth Bullock Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Americans will sit at home hoping to see it on YouTube or the TV news. Other than that, they won't do anything. The average American is fat and spoiled and out of shape. The average American can't run up a hill, dig a foxhole, or take orders. Lol, there will be no civil war.
     
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  12. Turin

    Turin Well-Known Member

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    If you noted, I said specifically it wasnt going to be some war with battle lines and regiments and tanks and ****.


    But more like a cold civil war. Bombings. Assassinations. Crap like that. Again, similar to how Ireland was during the height of the IRA.
     
  13. Diablo

    Diablo Well-Known Member

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    You could say that there's a civil war going on atm. Whites v blacks, Reps v Dems, vaxxers v anti-vaxxers, 12000 gun deaths a year. Other than that, which will likely continue, it will be quite peaceful.
     
  14. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    Some might call that a civil war, but in reality, those are issues that have been going on in the USA since it's inception.
     
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  15. Reasonablerob

    Reasonablerob Well-Known Member

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    A civil war wouldn't last long, the Right has all the guns. What are the Left going to do, pelt their opponents with "vegan snacks"?
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2021
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  16. Joe knows

    Joe knows Well-Known Member

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    I would say 0%. States are not at that point politically. In order to actually attempt a civil war and split states must be on board. As far as gorilla type factions trying to go at it on their own I would say there is a small chance that will ultimately be looked at nothing more than terrorism.
     
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  17. Joe knows

    Joe knows Well-Known Member

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    It’ll take more than a semi auto AR-15 to force the government to allow for people to rewrite their rights. If you’re talking a civilian war with no military intervention you would be right but that will never be allowed to happen.
     
  18. gamewell45

    gamewell45 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Zero chance. Most Americans realize their is strength in numbers. To divide up America and would only weaken us, plus there is always the chance that any one of the states would open up relations with China, Russia, North Korea, etc who might work a deal out where you'd have Troops from any of the aforementioned countries opening up military bases and possibly nukes on former American soil in return for foreign aid. Don't laugh, anything is possible these days given the alt-right/alt-left in this country.
     
  19. Big Richard

    Big Richard Banned

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    The elites (politicians) in our country have been practicing divide and conquer for years now.
    Remember Stupis Xoes promise of uniting the country? What a crock of sheet. He’s divided the country even more then Obama did. I think enough old school Dems will show the party what it takes to unite but after the stupid one is gone.
    By 2024 the country will be fed up with the commie Dems and will move back right
     
  20. Mircea

    Mircea Well-Known Member

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    Seriously?

    Okay, I'll give a serious answer. The time period that should concern you is 2034-2038.

    I would give the odds for that period 90+%. At present, I'd say less than 15% and over 10 years less than 20%.

    To keep this discussion on-track, it might help to have some basic understandings. Civil wars are internal conflicts that come in different flavors, namely, Wars of:

    1) Colonial Independence
    2) Independence
    3) Separatism
    4) Nationalism
    5) Irredentism
    6) Revolutionary

    The US has previously experience Wars of Colonial Independence and Nationalism, but nothing else.

    Yes, I do understand that for reasons of political propaganda, your government maintains that it fought a Revolutionary War, but there is nothing revolutionary about colonies wanting independence.

    Unless someone can show me were the Colonial Army sailed up the River Thames and besieged King George III to overthrow him, there was no "Revolutionary War."

    Since we are not colonies, and since there are no US territories now part of another political State, the potential types of civil wars would be:

    2) Independence
    3) Separatism
    4) Nationalism
    6) Revolutionary

    Since the US population is not homogeneous, and since the US has never been a nation, is not now a nation, and never will be a nation, we can rule out #4.

    2) Independence
    3) Separatism
    6) Revolutionary

    For an example of separatism, you need only look at Catalan and Spain. Like the US, Spain is not a nation-State and not a nation. It consists of 9 separate nations, one of which is the Catalans who inhabit a specific geographic region in Spain, just as the other nations in Spain do.

    Where would you find that in the US? Well, nowhere.

    Well, okay, you do have 537 indigenous tribal groups who each comprise a nation unto themselves, but I dare say they will not be rebelling anytime soon. That leaves us with:

    2) Independence
    6) Revolutionary

    The single common denominator in all type of civil wars is the straw that breaks the camel's back and disenfranchisement.

    There is no one incident in particular, rather it's a series of incidents that pile up over time until things fall apart. What constitutes an incident is varied. It could be an event, or policies of governments at various levels, policies of non-government actors, or statutes, rules and regulations enacted by the governments at various levels.

    Those "incidents" serve to disenfranchise people, and it doesn't matter whether they really are or not, because it's all about the perception of being disenfranchised.

    Why is that important to understand?

    Ask, "Who is being disenfranchised?" and you have your answer.

    If colonists are being disenfranchised, then you have a War of Colonial Independence, but for ethnic groups, that results in Wars of Nationalism or Separatism and possibly Irredentism.

    So, "Who is being disenfranchised?" That will tell whether it's revolutionary or independence.

    Revolutionary wars are varied, because it can result in the removal of certain actors from government or a whole new freaking system of government. Wars of Independence are just splitting from the whole freaking program.

    There are about 15-20 States that would be better off economically without the US, and there are about 12-15 that simply would not survive unless they're in some type of arrangement. They rest could go either way, depending on how well they're governed, and there we see the spectre of low-information voters rearing their ugly heads.

    I'm sure the non-starters will start screaming, "Foreign Invasion!" over and over until they start frothing at the mouth and fall over backwards in their own pee and crap.

    The reality is the US is under no threat of invasion. At least not for 78 years, because that's how long it would take China's 8 ship-yards to build all the necessary landing and cargo craft necessary to transport troops, vehicles, equipment, ammunition and supplies to the US and sustain them.

    Anyway, there you go.
     
  21. gamewell45

    gamewell45 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What is "Stupis Xoes"?? What kind of education did you receive in the first place? If most republicans think and speak like that, no wonder the country is in such bad shape as it is. Nikta Khrushchev once said that the communists would take over America without firing a shot; with republicans running the country, it'll definitely happen before our very eyes.
     
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  22. Big Richard

    Big Richard Banned

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    See that’s the problem isn’t it? I’m a product of Detroit public schools. The Dems here have been in control since 1960 and by the time I graduated the education system was rotted away by years of demoncrat lies and false promises. But I consider myself lucky, I don’t attend there now. Total Dem cluster f#$&.
    Like you, I make a typo every now and then. Im not a Xiden who claimed what, three degrees? Graduated top half of his class? No, I’ll admit I make typos.
     
  23. Turin

    Turin Well-Known Member

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    I wish I knew where this myth that Liberals dont own guns comes from.

    Im super liberal. I own plenty of guns and know how to use them. So do most of my liberal friends.
     
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  24. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    Lol. Which general will fight which other general?

    0%
     
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  25. Josh77

    Josh77 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I said 1-10%. I wouldn't say it is impossible, but very unlikely. I think the silent majority are realizing we are being manipulated by politicians to be divided, and won't doing anything stupid. The very vocal far left and far right (mostly trump cultists) are the ones being the most heard, so I think it seems we are a lot more divided than we actually are. Most people recognize we are all human, and all want to just get along peaceably with our lives, and have no desire to slaughter fellow Americans. Our differences can be worked out in more rational ways.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2021
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