What would be next in the Ukraine?

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Yazverg, Jul 30, 2014.

  1. Yazverg

    Yazverg Well-Known Member

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    It will be nice to make a prognosis on the topic and then to look on what has happened and what didn't and why. This is more or less good to evaluate the information we have and to judge opinions. I would like to start at a certain form which will allow to estimate the forecast and to tell it of guessing or wish.

    What is happening?
    It is a war of US against its main economical competitors. The main aim is to damage economy of EU and to force Russia to bow before the US becoming one of its minion states. A secondary objective is personal. It is Putin. His recent activities were a sharp bone in the throat of the bankers from Wall Street and the talking heads of american political establishment.
    To make it come true russian energy resources which are reliable and cheap here and now need to be substituted or cut off EU and russian market needs to be cut as a destination point for EU products. The sanctions against Russia are actually sanctions against the EU. For the US doesn't have that much of trade ties with Russia and any sanction is shallow. But tearing a tie from the side of Germany, Netherlands, Italy, France will have a real negative effect for poth partners. In order to cut the natural resources Ukraine was blown as a major transporter of russian gas.

    What it came to.
    For the moment the Ukraine has turned of an interesting country with lots of opportunities into a bloody mess which noone wants to be responsibile for. Not the US or EU, nor Russia, not even ukrainian government are taking the responsibility over the situation in the whole of Ukraine. For the moment the civil war is based on two sides - rebels and kievan power (President so far doesn't have the power as long as the country's constution is a parliament republic and parliament is helpless as long as it has the traits of precious regime of Yanukovich who was unlawfully dismissed from the post of president in spring. So basically there is no power in Kiev and all the initiatives about it are at hands of US and EU. While EU tries to organise a kind of constitutional activities (elections of Poroshenko and now elections of his political party to the parliament) US tries to provoke Russia for an invasion. Once provokation succeeds the clash between EU and Russia will allow the White House to act as a peacekeeper getting even more Nobel prizes for peace. The only problem is that Russia and Putin are not playing the role and don't want to clash with EU, although continuously do everything they can against the interests of white house.

    What are the problems and strong points of each side:
    1. Ukraine is not a subject under the circumstances. Any acting side is playing any of ukrainian pawns which already are possible to be sacrificed. So the main problem of Ukraine is to return to the playing board as a player. There are a number of oligarchs, number of old politicians and of course the fascists, who will be able to perform that. So far noone succeeded. Thus Ukraine has no strong points so far. Except maybe for some attention, which is getting lower because of what is happening in Gasa...
    2. The main problem of Russia is a civil war in Ukraine. In fact it is not a national conflict, but a conflict between russians. The ones who think that Russia should be a quite and obedient western country at any costs - are represented by side of ukrainians (maidan was in russian as well, not only in ukrainian language). The side of rebels represents the people who want to develop in a country as a fortress under seige. They are ready to sacrifice some level of living in exchange for a strong power and non-western development. This war in itself is against of Putin, who is surely western oriented liberal capitalist, who bargains tough for the benegits of his country as if it was his private company. The win of any side and the loss of any side means defeat of Putin's strategy for the last 15 years. The continuation of civil war means automatic start of it in the territory of Russia sooner or later (rather sooner due to latest decision of Congress to invest 10 times more money in 'russian democracy' comparing to what was invested into 'ukrainian democracy'.
    The main strength of Russia is a proximity of conflict to the russian army zone and possession of major military power in this region. However this strength cannot be used for the moment as long as it will mean the ultimate strategical defeat.
    3. EU main problem is a political structure that makes impossible any serious political moves. The confederation is ruled not by nations or national interests of 'europeans'. This nation was yet not built. And the national constituents also don't define the strategical moves of all the EU. This structure was nice when the more developed countries were able to get a cheap and better in comparison to african and asian labour force opening new markets for the products of these developed countries. This was the main reason of it growth. The very idea to get Ukraine into zone of free trade was to get access to ukrainian market and use it as a grey zone for importing european products into Custom's Union as long as Ukraine (Georgia and Moldova) had a better customs mode under CIS former USSR mode. It looked nice if Kremlin hasn't foreseen it in advance. For now EU is a hostage who needs to maneuver between cheap russian resources and main miltary and political ally, which is certainly US.
    The main strength of EU is being the most powerful economy in the stage and potentially the biggest political player if the weakness is overcome.
    4. US main problem is that its plan doesn't work. Russia doesn't attack. EU officials even joining the sanctions are trading below the counter and even make their own scandals with american spies etc. At this point US has already become a hostage of this plan. It can't refuse of it and its actions are predictable.
    The main strength of US is the position of superpower. So far its soft power of information works well. If the news tell in the morning that Ukrainian army used ballistic missiles, then in the afternoon it would tell that Russia has abandoned the treaty on some ballistic missiles, which will be enough for most part of viewers and listeners to understand that Russia is guilty about everything that happens with the ballistic missiles in Ukraine. So far it works. Besides, EU is much more dependant on US than on russian resources. So in this play the only thing needed is a good picture of russian army or Putin who are making war with some poor innocent civilians. The rest is absolutely at the disposal of White House.

    If all of it is the way I just told then:
    1) Ukraine in the nearest couple of months will have a sharp competition for political leadership. There will be political murders and cheap political speeches. Provocations and possibly new maidans all over the country. No side will be able to control it or to stop it. The stakes are too high. Within the two months by October it should be evident who wins it.
    2) Russia will do its best that the rebels are not defeated. At the same time the help to rebels will stay as behind the stage as possible. Within the next two months Russia needs to open a different front in its war with the US. I hope that it is information-political or economical. For if it is a military front I will expect that both White House and Putin would go to the maximum and extreme measures. On the other side Russia wouldn't use the military if it has any other maneuver. The victory of Putin would be ANY cease fire agreement which continues for 2 months.
    3) US will try to use next level of provocations. Sanctions being a part of it. So I expect some other terrorist attack which will harm EU or provoke Russia. Maybe this time russian plane would be blown. I hope that they will not uncover Chernobyl or blow a Nuclear power plant. But the provocation should be harder than malasian Boeing. In some extent it should give a better TV picture. So I think that the news of new terrorist attack would appear in the news very fast. And the very first version of what happened will belong not to the judge or prosecutor not even telling about the defender. In the very best (for US) case Russia will start the invasion and US wil withdraw from the Ukraine like it did from Libya and Iraq recently, which will not bring any peace to the region as it is in all three cases.
    4) EU will have a hard time changing the political decsion making scheme. I expect attention to a political life in Ukraine and active support of political ally of EU, who for the moment seems to be Poroshenko. EU will have to support every rhethorics of US in the press but below the counter there will be lots of scandals that the people or companies on the black lists have found some leaks or exclusions. In a two month time the game will be finished and depending on who takes over militarily and politically in the Ukraine and informationally and economically between US and Russia - there will be a position of EU formed on the issue.
    The main risk of EU is to be destroyed by different extreme parties. Some countries as Poland or Baltic countries which are wellestablished subsidiaries of US inside EU will demand the most weakening decisions from the side of all the union. At the same time once the information about the bloody character of war opeartion against its own people in Ukraine will spread different politicans will be happy to capitalise on that. The level of integrity between different countries of EU and Russia is different. And the risks are very different. That will create favourable conditions for reforming or destruction of EU. Of all the sides of conflict it is EU which has the most maneuver. So it is the least predictable.
     
  2. Capitalism

    Capitalism Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ukraine is nothing more than a powder keg running out of fuse. The more sanctions the EU and America put on Russia the larger the keg grows.
     
  3. Xanadu

    Xanadu New Member

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    The aim are the Russian and European people (history was always about getting control over the masses and try to start a war)
    By damaging the economy and cut down or even cut off Russian gas supplies to the EU, they will force political conflict in the EU by doing that (higher gas prices, means more angry consumers)
    The prices of fuel, morgages and rental housing already went up over the last years (because of the economic crisis), taxes on products went up from 19 percent to 21 percent, all this stacks up (less money to spend, so more people getting into trouble, even while they let you believe the economy starts to improve)
    All this shows you how money/ capitalism and/or economy (plus media) are all revolutionary weapons (are collective weapons, weapons that cause motion in most people at the same time, and when lots of motion (trouble) is going on, the result will be contra revolutionary movement (many others will try to stop a repeat of history when they believe they see one going on), so the overal result in the end is an entire nation (hierarchy) in motion, and when that is going on, that is a collective happening, and you know what a mass collective happening tells us (history)
    The Ukraine is a strategic location between two big systems, the EU and Russia, a political playball to cause trouble in Russia and the EU (also the USA is getting involved, so another cold war type of situation is even possible, which was played down lately)
    The situation in the Ukraine can continue for years.
     
  4. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The crisis in the Ukraine will continue for appox. three years, which will be the time required for the Russian economy to collapse and rebellion within the country to require Putins attention to shift internally rather than external. During these years the Russian backed forces will become ever more militant and aggressive, causing the Ukrainian people to fight against them in support of their country and the Government it develops.
    The United States will eventually supply advanced weaponry to this government and Ukraine will become a NATO member which will force Putin to back down in his game of thrones.
     
  5. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Q: What would be next in the Ukraine?

    A. T-90 tanks and Mi-24 helos.
     
  6. waltky

    waltky Well-Known Member

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    A picture is worth a thousand words...
    :confusion:
    NATO: These new satellite images show Russian troops in and around Ukraine
    August 28,`14 ~ NATO released satellite images on Thursday of what it said were Russian artillery, vehicles and troops in and around eastern Ukraine, just as Ukrainian officials said Russian troops in armored vehicles captured the Ukrainian town of Novoazovsk, along its southeastern coastline.
     
  7. Balancer

    Balancer Well-Known Member

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