Why Fox’s Call on Arizona, Which Was Right, Was Still Wrong

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Egoboy, Mar 13, 2023.

  1. Egoboy

    Egoboy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2017
    Messages:
    44,763
    Likes Received:
    32,099
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    SNIP
    It was more a risky guess than a sound decision, and easily could have led to a missed call.

    This debate can be a little confusing, since Fox was right in the most important sense: It said Mr. Biden would win Arizona, and he ultimately did.

    Was the Fox call the result of the most sophisticated and accurate modeling, or more like being “right” when calling heads in a coin flip? It appears to be the latter — a lucky and dangerous guess — based on a review of televised statements by the Fox News decision team and publicly available data about the network’s modeling.
    ENDSNIP

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/upshot/fox-arizona-election-call.html

    Very interesting, if long and wonky, article... seems to be based on the thought that the people who returned their absentee ballots on election day, which would be probably counted last, would break for Mango, and Fox didn't fully take that into account.

    I know the Fox Election Desk shouldn't be confused with the talking monkeys on weeknights, but I enjoy watching any aspect of the GOP Media System get challenged.

    And, for any MAGAs reading this, REMEMBER, the early call didn't impact ANYTHING. No calls were made before polls closed, so no voters were impacted.

    Thoughts? Did Fox jump the gun? They sure got damn lucky Joe hung on....
     
    lemmiwinx likes this.
  2. Independent4ever

    Independent4ever Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2020
    Messages:
    3,542
    Likes Received:
    3,578
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Yes, Fox's analysis was flawed as it was too close to call and they should have undid the call

    I am guessing once's Trump's people started pressuring them, they did not want it to look like they were placating him

    Nothing was impacted, and the only reason for the uproar was the potential impact on Trump declaring victory before all the votes were counted
     
  3. Egoboy

    Egoboy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2017
    Messages:
    44,763
    Likes Received:
    32,099
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Can you find any examples of an election night call backed out? And by that, I don't mean the call was later determined to be wrong, but actually backed out before the final results are known?

    I didn't.

    I don't think you can unring that bell.... Once the call was made, it was just hang on for dear life and hope you are right...
     
  4. Independent4ever

    Independent4ever Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2020
    Messages:
    3,542
    Likes Received:
    3,578
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Florida 2000
     
  5. lemmiwinx

    lemmiwinx Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,069
    Likes Received:
    5,428
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    A lesson for Fox is never call a close election until all the cheating allegations have been investigated by outside entities. Never, just don't do it even though you want so bad to be the first to call it.
     
  6. Egoboy

    Egoboy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2017
    Messages:
    44,763
    Likes Received:
    32,099
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Fair enough... although that was everybody making the same call.... I was thinking more about a single entity jumping the gun...
     
    Independent4ever likes this.
  7. yardmeat

    yardmeat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2010
    Messages:
    56,163
    Likes Received:
    30,631
    Trophy Points:
    113
    If the standard for "all the cheating allegations" was higher than "But I heard a scary and unsubstantiated rumor on social media," then you might have a point. But that's the Trumpist "standard."
     

Share This Page