Why is no one in this Forum paying attention to the threat from China?

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by Modus Ponens, Feb 2, 2015.

  1. Modus Ponens

    Modus Ponens Well-Known Member

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    It's so sadly typical, the threads you see in these sections. All this handwringing over Russia, over Daesh in Syria and Iraq... All of which is a sideshow compared to the true, and major, Great-Power conflagration that is brewing (and has been already, for at least the last few years) in the Western Pacific.

    China is actively preparing for domination of this area. They are building a war machine - including a blue-water navy and comprehensive multiplatform area-denial capacity - to push the U.S. Navy back, ultimately, to Hawaii and replace us as the world maritime hegemon.

    This military goal is integral to their geo-strategic goals, in the region: 1) seizure of strategic territory from Japan, and if necessary defeat of Japan's naval forces and subjugation (not to say occupation) of Japan 2) prevention of a unified Korea 3) conquest of Taiwan 4) successful prosecution of their territorial claim on the whole of the South China Sea.

    Control of the South China Sea is the particular focus of the Chinese. The South China Sea is regarded as international waters by the rest of the world, but China asserts that those waters are its sovereign territory. This is an outrageous and unprecedented claim, a power-grab aimed at seizure of the rich natural resources of the area, and control over the most important sea-lanes of world trade.

    Successful assertion of ownership of the SCS would reduce China's immediate neighbors to economic vassalage, and would put China's hand on the throat of Japan (since vital trade and energy supply routes from the rest of Asia to Japan, traverse the South China Sea).

    The Chinese would only be able to successfully prosecute this seizure of international waters, by the eviction of the U.S. Navy from the area. Every aspect of their current naval expenditures is focused around this aim.

    Americans are deluded about the growing strength of the Chinese navy (the People's Liberation Navy, or PLAN), in significant part because the Chinese have no carrier force. Americans need to wake up on this, and quick: a carrier force is needed for power-projection across the planet, but not for a naval struggle in your own backyard. Chinese ballistic missile, submarine, and laser-cannon technology are all steadily advancing, and will ultimately make our lumbering carrier-groups easy targets.

    But we hear none of this from the media, with its hyperventilating focus on a nuisance-threat like ISIS. The plain fact is that groups like Daesh do not pose a fundamental challenge to the International System (and the U.S. as its primary custodian) the way that China's rise in East Asia does. We need to WAKE UP, get our eye on the ball and figure out what to DO about China. Before it's too late.
     
  2. JIMV

    JIMV Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Because paying attention would mean having to prepare and that costs money that too many want for vote buying and social programs. It also requires politicians to admit they have botched the China policy for decades...
     
  3. Casper

    Casper Banned at Members Request Past Donor

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    China has been discussed many times on this board. And the fight over who owns what in Asia has been going on for many many years.
     
  4. Modus Ponens

    Modus Ponens Well-Known Member

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    There is a real strategic blindness in the West Re: China. The "attention" China and the East gets on this board is episodic, dependent on what's currently in the news. We are in a Cold-War level struggle here, and we need a sustained focus on China as the U.S.'s # 1 military and strategic adversary. Unless we snap out of it and realize what China's doing (particularly our media here, whose responsibility it is to make sense of these trends and communicate that to the American people), we are going to get a very rude shock from the Chinese, and likely in the not-too-distant future. Instead we are stupidly operating with a cat's attention-span, always looking in the direction of the biggest noise - nuisance threats like ISIS or even Russia (who pose no serious threat).
     
  5. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The Chinese couldn't do much worse than the government we have
     
  6. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    The only reason China is building up their military is that we have built up ours and the supreme irony is that they have financed the majority of our buildup. China will do nothing that might stop us from buying their products and borrowing their money, we are financially locked with them. They are desperate to avoid war with us as we could then cancel our huge debt to them and still easily defeat them militarily with our vastly larger nuclear stockpile.

    Oh, and cats will sit under a cabinet for hours waiting for a mouse to move, Seen 'em do it.
     
  7. trout mask replica

    trout mask replica New Member

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    China is similar to the other nations that comprise BRICS in as much as it is wants globalization on its terms - that is, a greater assertion of national power and a weakening of U.S hegemony.
     
  8. katzgar

    katzgar Banned

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    lets get better info on the internal strife in china...demonstrations everyday, will put china into better perspective.
     
  9. Pronin24

    Pronin24 New Member

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    Perhaps, this is because China does not scare anyone. Too far from Europe and from USA. Neighbors of China are not important, except, may be Japan.
     
  10. Pollycy

    Pollycy Well-Known Member

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    In my posts since the China/Japan/South Korea/U. S. dispute over the East China Sea and the Senkaku Islands heated up last year, I've pointed out how obvious it is that China is growing increasingly bold in projecting authority and power into regions it never was so forceful in earlier. China wants to control the oil under the seabed in that region, pure and simple. It also wants Japan and South Korea, which it loathes, to abandon any claims to "their" space....

    But, IMHO, it's much more involved than that, and it involves Russia, and North Korea. Long story short, I can see a scenario developing in which Russia and China form an ever-more closely entwined alliance that may result in hostilities in both Europe, and in Asia-Pacific, specifically involving South Korea and Japan.

    Vladimir Putin is showing no sign whatever of backing down before the central bankers, the EU, and the IMF over Ukraine. The wise old Mandarins who rule China can be relied on to take advantage of trouble for the U. S. there by causing even more trouble with overt or covert action against South Korea and/or Japan. The U. S. has already stated that it can no longer wage a two-front war, and it is likely that the Russians and the Chinese were paying close attention....

    Perhaps the only thing more stupid than adopting idiotic foreign polices is making the even more breathlessly moronic announcement that a nation can no longer be depended on to project power and provide defense to areas it was able to for over seventy years! Who would do such an execrably STOOPID thing? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-longer-fight-the-worlds-battles-6285629.html

    "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." (first attributed to Chinese philosopher, Confucius)
    [​IMG] "Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States...."
     
  11. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    This forum is full of people who argue over issue raised by the media and their fellow forum members, for the most part. Russia gets lots of attention, the forum focuses on Russia. Syria gets attention, the forum focuses on Syria. A US shooting gets attention, the forum focuses on that. And so on.

    If we don't hear much about China, we're not going to think about it very much either. Until China does something to get attention or is targeted for a media campaign for some other reason, that's the way things are likely to remain.

    As to the subject of possible Chinese domination of the Pacifica and the Orient, well, it is hard to know what to expect. They might just become more USA-like, exerting influence and control over their neighbors and establishing a peaceful kind of hegemonic control. Their alliance with Russia will no doubt aid in this, since they will gain natural resources in abundance, potential military allies to help secure their position, and of course a safe north-western border in the event of an open military conflict with the Bear guarding their back.

    Japan would stand to lose a lot, it's true, if China decides to act. Japan may lose not only the islands in dispute with China, but those in dispute with Russia as well. I don't know about the Koreas, though. I suppose they could end up unified after all, but not under a southern, pro-US type of system...
     
  12. Modus Ponens

    Modus Ponens Well-Known Member

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    Japan is extremely important, inasmuch as they are the only ally between China and Hawaii. And the Chinese are working themselves into a nationalist lather over the Japanese. It all is eerily reminiscent of how the Japanese acted toward the Chinese, 100 years ago. It seems that with their growing power, it's payback time for China.

    Furthermore we need to understand: We have a military alliance with Japan. We are treaty-bound to help them, if they fall into a naval war with the Chinese. Americans are utterly unprepared psychologically, and increasingly unprepared militarily, for a contingency like this.

    Lastly, let's not forget Taiwan. We have no treaty with Taiwan to come to their defense in the case of a Chinese attack, but they are a crucial client for us: along with Japan, they are the key to keeping the PLAN bottled up within the first island chain. Given our long relationship with them as their patron, we will moreover be honor bound to help them in some material way, as they come to become increasingly threatened by China.

    And let's not even mention what China's role will be in the Korean peninsula, once the NK regime collapses. We need to get our head out of the sand and get ready for what's going DOWN.
     
  13. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    Well, what do you think about it? We can't afford to police the world, can we? The US is already hopelessly buried in debt because of it. Japan and others had better start learning to play nice with their neighbors...
     
  14. Modus Ponens

    Modus Ponens Well-Known Member

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    As for a Chinese-Russian Concordat, I don't think this is very realistic. There's nothing in it for the Russians, to abet China's rise to power - particularly since this could eventually only lead to Siberia becoming more and more vulnerable to a Chinese invasion. In the end, Russia is a basketcase. By every metric, they are a declining power. They may pose some military threat to Ukraine or Georgia, etc., but otherwise they are going nowhere.
     
  15. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    How about we move beyond "allies" and all that? I'm ready to see humanity operate as one world. One crucial step towards this end is a reduction of US hegemony and military power to be more in balance with the rest of the world.

    That is the way we're headed, really. The US's supremacy was not meant to last. There is no way it could do so without leading to WWIII (or IV?).
     
  16. reallybigjohnson

    reallybigjohnson Banned

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    Because China poses no threat. Militarily they are a joke compared to the US and economically they are dependent on the US and EU markets because they are so heavily reliant on exports. Any economic policies they might enact to hurt the US would end up hurting them far more.
     
  17. Jeannette

    Jeannette Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    A few years ago Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines were ready to kick out the American bases, that is until China decided it wanted to solve the problems of the territorial waters, and to delineate the waters of the S. China Seas. China's neighboring countries panicked because they didn't want to negotiate with China from a position of weakness, so they asked Washington to keep its bases. China of course perceived it as Washington butting its head into something which it had no business to get involved in...so of course the seas were never delineated. Heaven forbid we should help solve problems rather than creating more problems.

    China since then sees the US as an enemy, and fears that America's Pacific Fleet would force an embargo on its trade someday, so Putin (thanks to the sanctions), came to their rescue. China now has no worries about gas or oil since it has partnered with Russia and has access to all of Siberia's wealth. Nor does it have any worries about America's fleet hindering its trade. Instead of using ships, China is now building railroads for high speed trains that will connect Shanghai to Moscow and Europe as well as to the Mediterranean.

    Russia not only united with China in energy and railways, it has also united with them military. China now has access to Russia's high tech defense products, and Russia has access to China's banks and industries...and it's all thanks to Washington.
     
  18. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    That's all fluff, the export market and the financial system. Those things could be done away with tomorrow and you'd still have a heavily armed high-population nation ready to fight if propagandised and told to go do so.

    And you wouldn't think their military's such a joke if a war were actually fought. The US has long thrived on a myth of military invincibility, but then so did the Spartans at one time. We were lucky that we only had such relatively small, starved powers as Italy (laugh), Germany and Japan to fight against in WWII, and that with massive aid from the USSR and Great Britain, or our military mythos would never have had the chance to get off the ground in the first place! After that it was maintained by strategic avoidance of serious conflict against a powerful enemy while engaging in conflicts against far weaker enemies and either winning or quietly surrendering the fight while never acknowledging defeat (Cold War 101).

    A lot of dopes would have the smiles wiped (melted?) off their faces in a New York minute if this country ever went to war against a power such as Russia or China.
     
  19. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    I've heard some bad things about China's economic situation lately, e.g. that they are also struggling with some bubbles and could experience a 2008-type event at some point. This makes me wonder how stable they really are and how well they will be able to assist Russia financially.

    Or might this all be part of the US's/the west's strategy against Russia and China both? I'm thinking that weakening them economically would potentially slow their progress and allow western powers to take preemptive steps against them.
     
  20. Modus Ponens

    Modus Ponens Well-Known Member

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    Yes, you can tell a story of our rivalry with China which makes the U.S. out to be the bad guy; these kinds of geopolitical contests are complicated and all sides can emphasize the version of events that they prefer, for propaganda purposes. But the question is, what are we going to DO.

    In historical times China was the pre-eminent power in the region; but with the coming of the Europeans (and the rise of the Japanese), their power and their position went into eclipse. After WWII the U.S. inherited from Britain the role of the world's maritime hegemon (a role which the Chinese, with their focus as a regional land-power, never really had). We've done a good job of preventing the return of more huge, Great-Power wars, and we've been instrumental in setting up an International System whose whole purpose to protect the sovereignty of nations and prevent huge General wars. A key part of that System is international law, not least the Law of the Sea.

    But the Chinese, as their historical economic primacy returns, seem to want to go back to the old 19th century rules, where they don't have to take the sovereignty of "small countries" (as they refer to them) like their neighbors, seriously. From their recent behavior it is clear, that if it weren't for the U.S. Navy, they would have gone to war with Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam already.

    Your view that China is freed from the strategic concern over a U.S.-engineered embargo, is too sanguine. Yes, they are working on limiting their vulnerability, but a navy which can defeat us is essential to the project. I would not have a problem with them spending all the money on building up their navy for defense against us, but that does not appear to be its ultimate aim. They want us out of the way, to impose themselves on the region. If we lose the contest with them in the Pacific, there next step will be to make the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea into their own lake.

    It's been suggested that if they achieved mastery of the seas (or at least the most important part of the world's oceans), that they will be responsible custodians, like the U.S. has been. But there is real reason to doubt it. Why go to all this effort to dominate, if not to abuse their position? They are ruled by an authoritarian government. There is every reason to expect that the habits of rule at home, will be ones they will carry with them everywhere they go.
     
  21. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    But then again, they and every other would-be conquering nation can only go so far in this nuke & beyond age. No nation dare become too aggressive today lest it get a very bloody beat-down from its neighbors, and in these times the entire world is one neighborhood.
     
  22. reallybigjohnson

    reallybigjohnson Banned

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    This is the most enjoyable part of my day, when I get to smack down people who don't know a damn thing about anything.

    There military is a joke. A couple of years ago we held naval war games and invited a top Chinese admiral to view them. He reported back to China that they were nowhere near the capabilities that he saw and decades behind the US. Initially he had push back from from the higher ups but eventually several other top military officials came to his defense and said the exact same thing. China has absolutely nowhere near the force projection capabilities of the US.

    http://defensetech.org/2011/06/08/chinas-military-tech-20-years-behind-u-s/

    Numbers are completely irrelevant. China has in fact outnumbered its opponents throughout history but for much of its history it has been ruled by foreign powers with significantly smaller populations. For much of its history going back to the middle ages and earlier it has been ruled buy Mongols, Manchu and the Japanese who were vastly outnumbered by the Chinese. Your naive view that more people equals better military shows just how illiterate on the subject you are. Go back to school you 5th grader.

    China's economy is heavily dependent on exports...that is once again a verifiable fact. The Premiere of China has promised to focus more on the domestic economy because the Chinese have all but neglected it and focused almost exclusively on building up their export economy. The income gap in China is huge and makes the one in the US look like the difference between a penny and a $100 bill.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324407504578183240505906134

    Russia :roflol: Your rampant obnoxious illiterate ignorance is really showing now. Did you even pay attention to their horrible performance of the Russian military when they invaded Georgia a few years ago. It was a laughingstock and only the fact that the Georgians had significantly fewer troops and no serious tank divisions allowed them to win. Russia hasn't invested in naval technology for over twenty years now and the ships that they have sold to other countries like China and India have become internationa laughingstocks. Why don't you google the new refit aircraft carriers that India and China purchased.

    And lastly and probably the most important part is that almost all of China's manufacturing is located in a few centralized locations right along the coast line making them extremely easy to hit. Did that every occur to you Mr. "Bash the US because my liberal snot nosed friends pat me on the back when I do"

    Do you smell that? Its the smell of your reputation in complete shambles and your dignity dying with one last spark at the onslaught of actual facts instead of liberal hate mongering on everything about America.
     
  23. Modus Ponens

    Modus Ponens Well-Known Member

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    Well look, a naval war is a whole different animal from a land war, here. It's just conceivable that a naval war could be fought and contained to conventional forces; at least, that's what people might convince themselves of, when going into a war that they've convinced themselves could be won quickly.

    Beyond that, I don't think the Chinese would have the moral compunction against using the Bomb that we would; and I can readily see them using the bomb on us in naval operations, if it suited them. Furthermore, naval war fought in the SCS would probably necessitate conventional strikes on the Chinese mainland, and given what I know of them, they might well respond to this by going nuclear.

    Finally, the bomb might deter them from going to all-out war with us, but needless to say, all the "puny" countries in the region (fit only to give them tribute, as they did in the old days) - Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, etc. don't have the Bomb and so don't have the benefit for nuclear deterrent against China.
     
  24. Modus Ponens

    Modus Ponens Well-Known Member

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    Now, this is precisely the Toby Keith mentality that is going to get our ass handed to us.

    You portray the Chinese as woefully behind us (in 2011), and smugly leave it at that. They are intent on changing the status quo, they don't have internal political divisions to distract them from their drive to do this, and they are taking nothing but inspiration from little vignettes like the one you gave.

    Let's get it clear: They aren't working to maintain a globe-spanning military machine. They are working on becoming the premier power in their immediate region (which happens to be of supreme global strategic importance). They don't NEED a carrier-fleet (at least, not immediately). They only need area-denial capacity, which they are working on with every tool at their disposal.

    History is full of examples of established powers being challenged by rising powers; the typical pattern is that rising powers catch up to surpass established powers a lot quicker than anyone expects. We need to see the Chinese as an adversary who can make it too painful for us to challenge them in the region, in 10 yrs. time; and if we want to retain control of the Pacific, we need to start working like that day is tomorrow.
     
  25. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    a war that they've convinced themselves could be won quickly - Mm, famous last words of a sort, aren't they? :D No one going into WWI was expecting that to turn into what it did, and likewise with WWII. The technology of the era made those conflicts into a giant nightmare of mass murder and destruction that few if any properly predicted.

    I don't think the Chinese would have the moral compunction against using the Bomb that we would - We are still the only nation ever to have done so, though :lol: And even today people argue that it was the better course, that it brought an end to the war sooner and saved lives. Regardless of the untestable veracity or lack thereof inherent to these arguments, I should think the US and every other nuclear power could think of reasons to employ those weapons if they were feeling threatened enough.
     

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