Will Delta's YOUNGER Case Hospitalization/Fatality Rates increase over the next 8 weeks?

Answer; We still don't have enough U.S. Data

1. JUNE 11th..........Delta variant makes up 10% of new COVID cases in the U.S.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-severe-symptoms-concerns-experts/7639046002/

2. JULY 6th............The CDC released new estimates showing the highly contagious delta variant now accounts for more than 51% of cases in the U.S. In some parts ..

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...w-the-dominant-coronavirus-variant-in-the-u-s

3. JULY 20............Delta variant now accounts for 83% of U.S. Cases

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210720/delta-variant-now-accounts-for-83-of-us-covid-cases

4. IMO, near 100% by August 1st, 2021.

THUS, effective next Monday, new Daily Cases will damn near be 100% Delta, two weeks later, Hospitalizations, and two weeks later, Deaths.

Thus, by the end of August, we'll have a good idea about;

a. Delta's Case/Hospitalization Rate
b. Delta's percent of ICU Admissions/On ventilators
c. Delta's Hospitalization/Death Rate
d. Delta's Case/Death Rate

My Predictions;

1. Due to younger, and generally healthier patients, and as a percent of ''Current Hospitalizations, ICU admissions will significantly decline below Pandemic average of 20%.

2. Percent ''On ventilators'' will remain the same, thus, between 5% and 6% of ''Current Hospitalizations

3. However, I predict the below age 50 Case/Hospitalization AND Case/Fatality Rates will increase above Pandemic average.

Last, I also anticipate Republicans will try to twist factual data, and/or diminish Delta's severity, however, as always, they will be ''intelectually'' ridiculed.

 

Probably since schools will be starting back over the next 8 weeks

 

Gee it would be nice if everyone could get behind the idea of masks just for a week or two

 

Children's Case Hospitalization/Fatality Rates will remain very low, however, Delta is significantly more transmissible than original Covid, and previous variants.

 

DeSantis recently stated, ''The name of the game is to keep people out of hospitals, however, the only prevention measure that he wants is vaccinations.

 

Data out of the UK shows it isn’t more deadly that Covid A, in fact slightly less.

Israel shows about 80% of infected are vaccinated.

 

Quote: ''in fact, slightly less''

Hold your horses!

Quick search;

1. Obesity rate by country

U.S.......36.20

UK........27.80

2. Diabetes rate by country

U.S.........10.80

UK..........3.90

THUS, WE SHALL SEE

 

Also, in reference to; JUNE 11th..........Delta variant makes up 10% of new COVID cases in the U.S.........

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-severe-symptoms-concerns-experts/7639046002/

.........for a fair BEFORE and AFTER comparison, we must figure out/confirm the BEFORE Rates, such as;

a. Case/Hospitalization rate

b. Case/Fatality rate

c. Hospitalization/Fatality rate

d. Percent of patients ''in ICU's''

e. Percent of patients ''On ventilators'' , thus, the rates prior to Delta's presence, and considering the fact; Jun 11th.....Delta variant makes up 10% if new Covid cases

Thus, considering the fact; Jun 11th.........Delta variant makes up 10% of new COVID cases in the U.S

LET's SAY Rates before June 1st..........VERSUS............rates between Aug 1st and Aug 31st.

And for anyone's info, here were Covid19 ALPHA's ICU and ''On a ventilator'' numbers and percentages prior to End March, 2021;


59,795.....Apr 2020.........ICU;15,636/Ventilator; 5,514
28,012.....Jun 2020.........6,610/2,726
59,382.....Jul 2020..........10,308/2,729
28,724.....Sep 2020.........6,100/1,595
132,474...Jan 2021..........23,881/7,879
40,199.....Mar 2021..........8,134/2,821

59,795.....Apr 2020.........ICU: 26%/9.22%
28,012.....Jun 2020.........23.5%/9.73%
59,382.....Jul 2020..........17.3%/4.59%
28,724.....Sep 2020.........21%/5.55%
132,474...Jan 2021..........17%/5.99%
40,199.....Mar 2021.........20.2%/7%

Note; Percent of number of patients hospitalized

 

I am not sure comparatively speaking will matter to those and their loved ones who are hospitalized and/or die.

 

And get vaccinated

This new strain is not just more contagious all indications are that it's more virulent too. Not being vaccinated now is getting close to being suicidal. Even if it WILL make you buy Windows 11 you'll still be alive

 

You have to wonder how popular "hospitalization rates were very low" will become as an epitaph.

 

I don't hate on people who elect not to get the vaccine. It is their choice. My only real concern is that with mask mandates disappearing how many of them are running around unmasked thinking they are getting away with something when half the people in the store may be doing the same thing and they are risking preventable exposure in that recklessness. I still wear a mask in most places and I have had the jabs. I am still skeptical of the supposed effectiveness of the vaccines given the growing evidence of break through infections, reinfections and deaths among people who should be safe.

 

If there's one more case with one more person hospitalized over the next 8 weeks then it will have increased so yes most likely.

 

The reason why I created this thread near a month before our first Delta/Alpha comparison, is to eliminate the ''Yeah buts'' and comments like yours.

I clearly stated RATES and PERCENTAGES

Thus, will the Delta Rates/Percentages be higher or lower than the Alpha Rates/Percentages?

Comprendez?

 

Oh, the Delta rate infection will probably be higher but the hospitalization cases will probably be lower.

 

Due to the fact that 80% of Seniors have now been fully vaccinated, thus, due the fact that our fully vaccinated are mainly OLDER people, we will need to establish two set of rates, thus, under age 50 rates, and over age 50 rates, and then compare.

Note; Since the beginning of the pandemic, 95% of our Covid coded Deaths were people aged 50 and over, thus, what are the Alpha rates below age 50?

 

They already did that. They broke it down in even more sub catagories.

Most younger people won't suffer any symptoms so it's hard to even know who is infected.

I doubt it will even equal the under 50 rates of the alpha variant. It's extremely rare as a virus varies it becomes more deadly.

 

If we assume U.S. Delta Rates won't be higher than Alpha Rates, and at any age, we may have another problem;

Data indicate that Delta is 40-60% more transmissible than Alpha, thus, let's say 50% more transmissible

Thus,

Higher the Ro, higher the number of infections
Higher the number of infections, higher the positivity rates
Higher the positivity rates, higher the number of confirmed cases
Higher the number of confirmed cases, higher the number of hospitalizations
Higher the number of hospitalizations, higher the number of deaths

However, our current ''60%'' herd immunity may OFFSET Delta's higher Ro

Thus, WE SHALL SEE

Also, using State's health numbers.....NOT THE CDC, here are May 31st Alpha Numbers/Average Rates

May 31st, 2021

Total Hospitalizations; 1,160,610
Total Cases; 30,776,156
Total Deaths; 561,265

Case Hospitalization Rate; 3.7 (1,160,610/30,776,156)
Case Fatality Rate; 1.8 (561,265/30,776,156)

Note; average rates from beginning of pandemic to May 31st, 2021

https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

NOTE: Let's hope Delta's Rates will be lower than Alpha's Average Rates.

 

Higher rate of what, infections, cases, hospitalizations, deaths a

So what? If it's far less likely to cause adverse effects because it's infecting mostly young people or it doesn't cause a severe symptoms it's nothing to worry about.

that doesn't follow. It only would if this Grand is worse than the first one.

I don't think it matters that the infection rates are higher it matters if the variant is worse than the previous one and that's not typically how that works.

 

My bottom line is; I agree with DeSantis......"The name of the game is to keep people out of hospitals''

First Wave; Current Hospitalization peaked at 55,000, then declined to 24,000

Second Wave; CH peaked at 56,000, then declined to 25,000

Third Wave; CH peaked at 129,000, then declined to 34,000

Mini Fourth Wave; CH peaked at 41,000, then declined to 12,700 (Jun 27)

Fifth Wave; CH at 24,947, thus, nearly doubled since Jun 27th............https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project

 

The Delta virus symptoms are sore throat, headache, and sniffles. People are saying they are getting the worst colds they have ever had.

 

As if these hospitalizations were because of covid and not just sort of kind of related to it.

I find that whole system of declaring that sort of thing dubious.

 

Carlson's Project uses State's DoH Hospitalization Data, and confirmed Covid19 Hospitalizations

In addition, I used State's DoH Number of Cases, and Number of Deaths, thus, compared to other tracking entities, such as Worldometer/John Hopkins, I've used the LOWEST numbers.

https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

 

Still find it dubious.