Will Donald TRUMP, Become HOUSE SPEAKER?

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by DEFinning, Mar 28, 2022.

  1. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    This thread is focused on the promise which Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, has been making, that if Republicans regain control of the H.O.R., he will nominate Trump for the Speaker position. Having a non- elected House speaker, is actually Constitutionally allowable, & no House rules, would prevent it. Even if Gaetz turns out to no longer be in Congress-- or a free man-- by next year, when the new members join the House, it is reasonable to expect one of the other, devoted Trumpists there, to pick up that banner.

    So I am interested in, first, anyone bold enough to lay odds, assuming that Trump is nominated, of his winning the vote. A chief consideration must be, does Trump even want that job-- it would definitely cut into his golf time. But it would also put him in the position he craves most, center stage. So I am inclined to believe that he would be willing. I would also project Trump to be the favorite, among his most likely rivals for the post, at this point (only McCarthy, and Taylor- Greene, come to mind, at the moment). Fellow members envisioning what this prospect might look like, should it come to fruition, I also, highly encourage. My own, immediate reaction, is only, "What a circus, that would be!"


    https://floridapolitics.com/archive...w-to-nominate-donald-trump-for-house-speaker/

    [Snip]
    “Give us the ability to fire Nancy Pelosi, take back the majority, and impeach Joe Biden, and I’m going to nominate Donald Trump for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives,” Gaetz said to cheers.


    “There is no greater country than America! There is no greater President than Donald J. Trump! And if you don’t mind me saying so, there is not a better member of Congress than Marjorie Taylor Greene!”

    Gaetz, of course, has been pushing for this for over a year, including at a Sarasota rally last year.

    Gaetz made news at Trump’s rally in Sarasota on July 3, promising to nominate Trump for the speakership after the 2022 election.

    “After the next election cycle when we take back the House of Representatives, when we send Nancy Pelosi back to the filth of San Francisco, my commitment to you is that my vote for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives will go to Donald J. Trump,” Gaetz told the crowd.

    Gaetz has defended the Trump-for-Speaker push despite reporters claiming it’s just a fundraising gimmick. Clearly it has staying power at the rallies, at the very least.
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2022
  2. Dayton3

    Dayton3 Well-Known Member

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    Not a chance. One of the biggest mistakes so many of you Trump haters make is think that most Republicans actually like and support Trump. They don't
     
  3. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    And your proof of that is...

    non-existent, because, if they don't like Trump, they're generally still too afraid of his influence, to say so. This would suggest that this same intimidation, would prevent Congressmen from contesting his elevation to the Speakership.

    As far as the Republican constituency goes, your assertion is patently false: opinion polls continue to validate the idea that Trump is still the most popular Republican, among the Party's base.
     
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  4. Dayton3

    Dayton3 Well-Known Member

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    Opinion polls are deeply flawed. I know as I've created and conducted them before.
     
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  5. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    But one person's opinion, isn't?

    That is a strawman argument-- in comparison, to just your opinion, you are the only possible exception to 100% belief that a poll of thousands of peoples' opinions-- or, in the case of 538's digest of polling data from many polls (as I had just tried to edit into my 1st reply, but time expired; I will include, below), many thousands-- is less prone to error. Does that come as news to you?

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/fiveth...ly-want-trump-to-run-for-president-again/amp/

    [Snip]
    But if Trump does run, one thing is clear: The Republican nomination would likely be his for the taking. He remains extremely popular among Republicans.

    A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 15-18 found Trump has an 86 percent favorable rating and just a 10 percent unfavorable rating among Republican adults. And he already dominates early polls of the 2024 Republican primary. A Morning Consult/Politico survey from Oct. 8-11 found that 47 percent of Republican voters would vote for Trump; no other candidate was above 13 percent. And while you should certainly take such an early primary poll with a grain of salt, if Trump is still polling that high come 2023, it actually bodes pretty well for his chances of becoming the nominee. Plus, given Trump’s strong influence within the GOP, few other Republican politicians would likely dare to run against him anyway.

    A sizable majority of Republicans also actively want Trump to run again. By a
    67 percent* to 29 percent margin, Republican registered voters told Morning Consult/Politico that Trump should run again, including 51 percent who said he should “definitely” run. A HarrisX/The Hill poll from Oct. 13-14 similarly found that Republican registered voters supported a third consecutive Trump candidacy *77 percent to 23 percent, including 52 percent who “strongly” supported it. And Quinnipiac found that *78 percent of Republicans would like to see Trump run again, and only 16 percent would not.

    What’s more, as more time passes since the end of his presidency, Republicans may be increasingly eager for Trump’s return. Back in May, Quinnipiac found Republicans in favor of a Trump presidential run 66 percent to 30 percent — now it’s 78 percent to 16 percent...
    [End]

    A more recent poll, in January-- even though its title is a finding of "waning support" for Trump among Republicans-- confirms Trump's continued strength with the base, to make him a prohibitive favorite, for the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination. Here is the link, but it is behind a pay-wall, at least for me:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/29/sundaytake-trump-polls/
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2022
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  6. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    @Dayton3

    One more source, for yet another poll, in November, done by a different source: the Marquette School for Law. What does your experience tell you, when so many different polls, over such a long span of time, have the same findings? Not that one needs to look beyond the actions & statements of elected Republicans, who appear to believe these poll numbers which, in the end, is all that really matters, with regard to the subject of this thread.

    https://www.marquette.edu/news-cent...s-favor-a-trump-run-for-president-in-2024.php

    [Snip]

    MILWAUKEE — A Marquette Law School Poll survey of adults nationwide finds a majority of Republicans wanting former President Donald Trump to run for president in 2024, although a majority of all adults in the survey say they do not want him to run. Among all respondents, 28% would like to see Trump make another run for the presidency, while 71% do not want him to run again.

    Republicans are most favorable to a Trump run. Sixty percent say he should run, while 40% of Republicans say they do not want him to run. A minority of independents would like Trump to run in 2024, and large majorities of those who identify as Democrats oppose a Trump rerun. The full results are shown in Table 1.

    All results in the tables below are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above. The results are from a nationwide survey of 1,004 adults in the period Nov. 1-10, 2021. The margin of error in the current poll is +/-3.9 percentage points.

    Table 1: Would like Trump to run in 2024, by party identification, Nov. 2021

    Party ID-----------------Yes----------------No

    Republican---------60 ----------- 40

    Independent-----------26 --------------- 73

    Democrat---------------- 6 ---------------- 94


    The extent of support for a return by Trump to campaigning is also seen in his favorability ratings. Among all adults, 32% have a favorable opinion of him, while 65% have an unfavorable opinion and 3% say they don’t have an opinion of him.

    As with a possible 2024 run, Trump is viewed favorably by a very large percentage of Republicans, but he faces net unfavorable ratings from independents and especially negative views from Democrats, as shown in Table 2.

    Table 2: Trump favorability, by party identification, Nov. 2021

    Party ID------------- Favorable ---- Unfavorable ------Haven’t heard enough

    Republican---- 73 -------- 26 ---------- 1

    Independent---- 28 ----------- 68 --------------- 3

    Democrat---------- 4 ------------ 92 --------------- 4


    In a rematch with President Joe Biden in a possible 2024 election, Trump receives support of 34% of those polled, against Biden’s 42%, while 18% say they wouldn’t vote for either and 6% say they would not vote...

    [End]
     
  7. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I dont see it happening. Sounds to me like Gaetz and ect are just trolling people that are still obsessed with Trump.
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2022
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  8. Dayton3

    Dayton3 Well-Known Member

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    Well of course they would. Because people hear about Biden running again and they gravitate in polls to the man who ran against him the last time.
     
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  9. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    Not trolling-- the article suggests many have said they believe that Gaetz is using this as a fundraising technique. But even if there is truth in that, the two are not mutially- exclusive; that is, he could still want Trump to be the Speaker (and if he were the one to nominate Trump, that would no doubt earn him some points, with the big guy). Regardless, after pledging this, in speech after speech, it is unreasonable to believe that Gaetz would not feel compelled to do it, should the circumstances arise. The only question, then, is will other House Repubs go along; again, based on their actions up to this point-- stripping people of their Committee assignments & even throwing them out of the caucus, for even mildly reproving statements about Trump-- I can't see where you are getting your idea, that they would not vote him in. Why did we hear so little Republican criticism, of Trump's recent praise of Putin-- even from Repubs who take the other side, on that issue?

    Your comment seems, honestly, like unfounded, wishful thinking.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2022
  10. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Why wishful? Trump is a great distraction and thats about all. He's proven he's good at keeping the govt too tied up with his BS for it to carry on with its own, which is fine with me because I find most of what our govt does to be bad for us. But neither is Trump any good at reversing any of it. Stagnation is hardly my wish. Though I would settle for it given the likely alternative.
     
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  11. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    Actually, the rest of that article went to cmsay that either man, based on the numbers who have said they would definitely not vote for them (a very high number of Repubs, regarding Biden; a very high number of Dems, regarding Trump), would have a tough time being elected. IOW, your assessment doesn't seem to ring true.

    Honestly, though, I didn't think that much of the article's assessment, on that point, either. First of all, if those were the two candidates, obviously one would have to win. Secondly, 42%, this far out, didn't sound that bad for Biden, assuming that he can still get some of his agenda passed this year, from which people will have begun to benefit, by late 2024, so I would expect him to pick up a lot more Independents, between now & then.
     
  12. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    I think Trump would perceive anything less as denomination for the candidate for president again as a slight.

    No, I do not see him becoming speaker of the house or president ever again.

    But what the hell do I know I'm just some guy on a forum with an opinion.
     
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  13. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    So your questioning of my statement, is based on your seeing Trump becoming the House Speaker as a good thing? If so, then consider my verdict changed to "your comment (that you don't see this happening) seems based on only your feeling that it would be too much, for which to hope."

    Do you think Republicans will recapture the House, in the Midterm Elections?
     
  14. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    Well, Trump's Presidential nomination is both already assumed to be in the bag, but yet something that is still years away. It seems implausible that anyone, even Trump, could consider being promoted from one's couch, at home, to being third in line to the Presidency, with the huge power and influence-- and high profile!-- of Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, as a "slight." Would it not be a bigger offense, to NOT elect him Speaker? Trump has suggested, I believe, that he could do a better job, running the Senate, than McConnell. So if he was offered leadership of the other chamber of Congress, through the House Speakership-- which is actually a higher position, than Senate Majority Leader (in terms of the chain of Presidential line of succession)-- your case does not seem very compelling, that Trump would turn it down. It would give him power, that he currently lacks. Even if he, like you, failed to recognize the great prestige of this position, it would make him instantly, the center of attention, once more, being able to summon an army of the press corps, at will. And it would greatly increase his relevance, which Trump has seemed to have been making efforts to hold on to, as much of it as possible, since his defeat. Lastly, it would be the end, of course, of the House Committee's investigation pertaining to January 6th, but would probably also buttress his attempts to stave off other federal actions, directed at him.

    Your comment does lead to raising an intriguing idea, though. If the Senate rules also allow a non- Senator to be the Majority Leader, which I guess I will have to look into, and the Republicans were to manage to retake both Congressional chambers, would Trump issue an edict to Senate Republicans, to elevate him to their top post? And how would that play out in the Senate, where McConnell holds much more sway, than McCarthy commands, in the House (if McCarthy would even dare oppose Trump, which seems doubtful)? That would be one grand mess-- albeit, an entertaining one!

    Still, I hope that we will see none of it. But the only assurance that we can have of that, is if the Dems hold onto both chambers of Congress, which is possibIe, depending on how the next 6 or 7 months unfold.
    So, we can now add to this thread's speculative questions: will the real possibility of Trump's ascendency to House Speaker, have an effect on the midterm election results? Specifically, will it lead to a net increase in turnout, for one of the Parties, and-- which one?




     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2022
  15. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    @DEFinning

    You do bring up some valid points but I think you failed to consider what we have been told for the last 4 years 5 years....

    He said to be so vain and egotistical that I don't think he would settle for second or third place.

    I can see some of the points you made being a possibility but I can also see his ego balking at that idea.

    He's not used to being demoted to a beta male
     
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  16. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    Personally at this point, despite the good I think he did as president.... I think it's time for him to just go play the 19th hole with a few martinis and just retire from the public eye.

    I would like to see our governor of Florida in the White House
     
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  17. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    sadly we are seeing many republicans are RINO's, they prefer Trumpism to conservatism
     
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  18. cristiansoldier

    cristiansoldier Well-Known Member

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    My guess is Trump wouldn't want the position even if it was offered to him.
     
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  19. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    In the House, Speaker is the top dog. And even if it is considered #3, among federal positions, it is exponentially higher than where he currently sits. Help me understand that mentality, that it is better to stay at a lower rung of power, than to move upward, unless it is to the #1 spot. Is not #3 closer to the top, than #1000, or #100, or even than #4

    Secondly-- and forgive me for commenting on what seems too glaring of an inconsistency, to ignore-- are you saying that you
    believe "what we have been told for the last 4 years 5 years...." about Trump being an egomaniac? Somehow, I thought you were in the camp, calling that a bunch of partisan malarkey.

    Finally, even though I do believe that Trump is petty, & narcissistic, & self-important, I still see becoming Speaker, as feeding his hunger for attention.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2022
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  20. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    And what reasons, underlie your guess?
     
  21. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Only if the people are sufficiently angry with the Dems as of late. If one party ruins the country too much, people will start to question whether democracy is actually worth it and whether this is actually a democracy. Gotta let the other team ruin it some too to keep up the image.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2022
  22. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    I have spoken of his egotistical ways and his braggardly mouth all along.... Just because I don't mention it in my every post doesn't mean I never had criticism of him.

    For instance, I was very unhappy with his actions on gun control at the time.
     
  23. WhoDatPhan78

    WhoDatPhan78 Banned

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    As a liberal, i desperately hope the Republicans go into November pushing the idea that a vote for a Republican majority is a vote for Trump as House Speaker.

    The Democrats having comfortable majorities in the house and senate would be great.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2022
  24. yardmeat

    yardmeat Well-Known Member

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    He doesn't have the patience or rigor for that kind of role. He'd never be willing to learn the rules, and he'd be bored within minutes.
     
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  25. Pants

    Pants Well-Known Member

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    I think a better question, here, would be how many would like to see Trump as speaker - and their reasons for why or why not.
     

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