Winter Storm Xyler Expected to Spread Snow to the Great Lakes, Colder Temperatures to t

Discussion in 'Science' started by Professor Peabody, Apr 27, 2019.

  1. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It's freezing because it's warming! It's April 27th and it's snowing in the United States lower 48. I know.....weather extremes are a sign of global warming.....Oh that's right they re-branded it climate change because it wouldn't always cooperate by getting hotter.

    Right now the Sun's activity is low and we have snow in the Dakotas and in parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan. Funny how that works, the Sun gets more active (hotter) and the planets get hotter. The Sun gets less active (colder) and the planets get colder. I wonder why that happens?
     
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  2. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Aint it weird how weather works.....sometimes cold and sometimes hot. Even stranger is how seasons never use a switch to turn on. You should save this for the summer to counter the heat as an excuse.
     
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  3. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    Are you still trying to play pretend scientist? Did you stay at a Holiday Inn last night?
     
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  4. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Is that the best ya'all got? Being insulting to me won't change the facts.

    There were Herbivore Dinosaurs and the vegetation to support them between 400 to 1200 miles from the North Pole about 60 Million years ago. The fossilized remains of both don't lie. Something cause the Earth to warm to that extent, man didn't exist and the fossils for oil were still walking around and growing from the ground. So what caused the Earth to warm that much? We know through indisputable fact that there were Herbivore Dinosaurs and the vegetation to support them between 400 to 1200 miles from the North Pole about 60 Million years ago. If you can't absolutely prove the latest warm period it's man made, then you can't rule out that the same process isn't happening again.

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/arcticdino/about.html
     
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  5. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    If you take the time to study climate change, you find in about five minutes that your arguments are moot. Yes, the earth used to be warmer. Carbon from millions of years ago, long before that, and ever since, was sequestered, largely in ancient algae, which then sank to the bottom of the ocean, where it was preserved until finally subducted by the action of tectonic plates. Time and pressure converted the algae to crude oil. Over the last two centuries, we have drilled for and released 275 billion tonnes of that carbon again. That is 606 trillion pounds.

    Either you aren't willing to take the time to learn or you refuse to learn. So which is it? Is it too complicated for you? Do you expect to understand without effort?
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2019
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  6. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    606 trillion pounds of carbon: t cubic foot of charcoal [nearly pure carbon] weighs 13 pounds. at 606 trillion pounds, that comes out to 317 cubic miles of charcoal. Mount Everest is comprised of about 365 cubic miles or earth and rock, from sea level to summit. So in practical terms, we have released about 1 Mount Everest in solid charcoal, in carbon.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2019
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  7. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    How does winter refute the evidence that the planet is warming?
     
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  8. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    [​IMG]

    So, oh wise one show me a chart of the plate tectonics where there was algae deposits that large at what is now the top of the world? Even if the plates were much different the algae should have been around the equator not what is now the great white north. Plates move.....not that much.
     
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  9. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It's freezing because it's warming......right? Sun gets hotter, the Earth gets hotter, the sun gets cooler the Earth gets cooler.
     
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  10. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    It can be freezing if its warming. For example, last week it was 10 F. This week it is 15 F. It is freezing, and it is warming. Also, it can be cooler in one year or 3 months but warming over 100 years. Or it can be cooler in one place but warming in the planet overall. By the way, the sun isn't getting hotter, it has actually cooled since 1950.
     
  11. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    Volcano Krakatoa caldera
    Date 26–27 August 1883
    Type Ultra Plinian
    Location Krakatoa archipelago, Sunda Strait, Dutch East Indies
    [​IMG]6.102°S 105.423°ECoordinates: [​IMG]6.102°S 105.423°E
    VEI 6
    Impact The third explosive event on 27 August was heard 4,830 km (3,000 miles) away; the eruption caused at least 36,417 deaths; 20 million tons of sulfur released into the atmosphere; produced a volcanic winter (reducing worldwide temperatures by an average of 1.2 °C (2.2 °F) for five years)


    20 million tons, versus 275 billion tonnes for carbon...over 10,000 times as much.

    QED.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2019
  12. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Read my OP, the sun is very cool and less active than normal and we get snow in almost May in the lower 48. If the sun's activity picks up then it will invariably get warmer.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    The winter-summer cycle is caused by the earths orbital relation to the sun, not by how hot the sun is. Winters can be harder than normal because of solar cycles, ocean cycles, volcanic eruptions, and regional weather patterns. These cycles are only temporary and usually reverse themselves in about a decade. This has nothing to do with actual climate which is longer-term warming over many decades.
     
  14. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We are about the same temperature as the Medieval Warm and Roman periods, expect a cool down to come.
     
  15. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    No, we are warmer than both these periods. And even if we were at the same temperature, that doesn't mean CO2 isn't the cause or the temperature won't go up further.

    Also, there is no evidence of a future cool down. Scientists are projecting several degrees of warming over the next few decades, and so far they have been right about their predictions of past warming.
     
  16. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Please link to an article where a named climate scientist says the latest warming trend is definitely and totally cause by man's emissions. Not "more than likely", "most likely" but definitely and with hard evidence.

    [​IMG]
    Headline from the Melbourne Age, February 16, 1979

    We've heard this crapola before.
     
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  17. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    The claim isn't that humans are 100% definitely the only cause of climate change. Its that humans are the most likely the main driver of climate change. We can do an analysis of the climate forcing of different factors like the sun, CO2, methane, albeto effect, ozone layer, aerosols to see what the biggest drivers of the current warming are. Some scientist did think that aerosols were going to cause an ice age, and they were very correct that these do have a significant cooling effect, but they didn't factor in human producted greenhouse gasses that overpowered the aerosol effect. The majority of studies at the time did correctly factor in greenhouse gasses and predicted warming not cooling. Also, just because some scientists were wrong in the past doesn't mean we can't ever trust the scientific community ever again.
     
  18. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "humans are the most likely "

    Ya gotta love a guess. When you find a group of scientists willing to stake their careers on it by saying "humans are definitely....." let me know, then we can talk about it. By saying "most likely" means they aren't sure and aren't willing to commit their careers to their predictions.

    Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

    Please explain how humans caused the other planets to warm along with Earth? Did the cow farts from Earth waif across 34 million miles of space and pollute Mars atmosphere?
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2019
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  19. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    No, when scientists say most likely, it means that there is more than a 50% chance, judging from the evidence. Given the extreme consequences of not acting if we are indeed causing climate change, I don't understand your unwillingless to act without absolute certainly. Sometimes in life we don't have absolute certainty, we only have high certainty, and we have to make the right choice.

    According to scientists the greenhouse layer is an integral part of the warming of the planet. In fact it would be about 60 F cooler without the greenhouse layer. This layer consists of a lot of gasses: Water vapor, CO2, Methane, etc. Water vapor is by far the most potent greenhouse gas but the others still have some significance. Research has found that humans have increased greenhouse gas concentration from 290 PPM to 405 PPM today, is projected to cross 700 PPM by 2100 depending on what we do. Researchers have also found that the planet has warmed about 2 F.

    When compared to the temperatures of the last 2000 years, this 2 F of warming is very rapid in a short period of time, resembling a hockey stick. The rapid rise in temperatures only started with human industrialization 150 years ago and has been accelerating the more CO2 we are outputting. Even if only 4 F of that 60 F from greenhouse gasses was from CO2, increasing it by 50% like we see today would result in 2 F in warming that we have seen today. In addition, scientists have found that the lower atmosphere warmed, but the upper atmosphere didn't. This perfectly matches greenhouse gasses which are in the lower atmosphere and weeds out the sun which is also in the upper. We also see a very strong correlation between CO2 and temperature in the past, and this will be explored a little later. These lines of evidence already point a finger at human greenhouse gas emissions.

    In this quest to find the cause, scientists studied different warming factors, figured out how much they have changed, and estimate their warming effect in watts per square meter. They found that without factoring in greenhouse gasses, nothing changes enough to explain such extreme warming of 2 F in just 150 years. When we do factor it in, it matches completely. They found that CO2 (human) was the biggest factor, Methane (human) was a smaller but significant warming factor, aerosols (human) had a significant cooling effect but was overpowered by greenhouse gasses, and a bunch of natural factors that weren't very strong in comparison. The fact that natural factors came up so small makes sense given how mild temperature change was before human industrialization. Also, past predictions based on these estimates by climate scientists about warming have come true and we are still seeing significant warming. Their calculations show humans are the main driver and their predictions keep getting confirmed.

    Greenhouse gasses usually didn't drive climate change in the past because there was nobody pumping them out. Usually there would be an initial driver of climate change like volcanic activity or an orbital shift and this warming would result in more greenhouse gasses including CO2 being outputted, and other things like earth's abeto to warm the planet further. The greenhouse gasses would amplify the initial warming and result in a run-away warming effect far greater than what we would have expected from just a little change to the orbit. We see a very strong correlation between temperature and CO2 because of this and the strong impact CO2 and other greenhouse gasses have on temperature.

    Today, we are simulating this but this time we are the ones pumping out the greenhouse gasses instead of an initial warming factor and we are doing this at a far greater rate than naturally. Also, even if we were to stop, the planet will continue to warm as that warming is amplified by a darkening abeto from ice loss, and greenhouse gas increase including the most powerful one, water vapor which will probably create a runaway warming effect that is difficult to predict or control.
     
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  20. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You're free to give a part of your income on a better than 50% chance, please don't ask me to.
     
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  21. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    Given the evidence, its a lot better than 50%, for me personally judging the evidence its like 90%-95%. And the vast majority of scientists agree that humans are the main cause of climate change. So you would be willing to gamble the future for thousands of generations off of you on a bet in hopes that you can continue living in luxury and not change? Dark.
     
  22. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If you want to bet on the grey horse, knock yourself out. 50% or 90% more than likely means they aren't sure and want to leave themselves an out, so if the Ponzi scheme falls apart.......... Get back to me when they're 100% sure with proof.
     
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  23. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'll bet you are "The Life" of Russian Roulette parties.
     
  24. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    Last year Texas had an average summer and leftists who -- for some odd reason -- JUST discovered that it gets freaking damn hot in Texas during the summer, SHRIEKED that a typical Texas summer was proof of Climate Change. They did the same thing when Hurricane Harvey hit a few years back simply because it displayed typically erratic hurricane path activity. Sheesh!
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2019
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  25. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ayup...just a typical Texas summer.
    https://www.texastribune.org/2018/1...ding-officials-open-floodgates-mansfield-dam/
     

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