Worse than 1929 depression

Discussion in 'Australia, NZ, Pacific' started by billy the kid, Dec 19, 2018.

  1. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    If we could just get back to beaver pelts on the barrelhead. There's no way to fake that like derivatives, but alas, the beaver are few now.
     
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  2. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-07/how-federal-reserve-quietly-bankrupted-us-pension-system

    Did I say I know than the Fed...yep sure did...

    "Here are the numbers from no lesser authority than the institution responsible for this destruction itself: the Federal Reserve. By their calculations, at the end of the 3rd quarter, the funding shortfall of U.S. pension plans (public and private) stood at -$6.18t. That’s trillion, with a capital ‘t’. To put that in perspective, that’s roughly 30% of GDP:

    But that’s not even the scary part. The scary part is that this is the funding deficit NOW…after a decade of rampant financial asset inflation and a 10-year economic expansion. One shudders to imagine what the picture will look like as these tailwinds reverse. If the last two cycles are any indication, it won’t be pretty. The DotCom bust sent the cumulative deficit from -$1.2t to -$3.1t and the GFC saw it swell from -$2.9t to -$5.3t. Split the diff’ at a doubling of the deficit and we’d be looking at a hole of $12t before you can blink.

    The numbers are hard enough to fathom, much less figure a way out of. No amount of fancy accounting footwork can bring these obligations into a realm where they can possibly be fulfilled. Nor, I regret to add, does the standard operating procedure – blow it off and hope that time solves the problem. With our rapidly-aging population, more and more retirees are knocking on the door to collect their benefits every day."
     
  3. LeftRightLeft

    LeftRightLeft Well-Known Member

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    Actually I know around a hundred, they are though usually through mental illness, drugs/alcohol, family abuse. That is more due to with whom I associate. About 25% of those however could keep and look after accommodation if it was affordable.
     
  4. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-snowball-of-government-debt/
    Australia is at 3pm in the illustration @ 41% but this is only government debt and only shows government debt..doesnt include personal debt...nor does it specify if state debts are included for Australia...underestimates China's debt as its at 300% atm rather than 47%...
    maybe the stats for every other country are wrong too.......?https://uploads.disquscdn.com/image...644e0800324e239dc308ca8639c9ebe929622af10.jpg
    I still think Greece is rooted...
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2019
  5. LeftRightLeft

    LeftRightLeft Well-Known Member

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    Just Greece?
     
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  6. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    I suppose you could say Europe is a "gangbang"...
     
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  7. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I saw cheap cities when driving around America. Democrats would do them a favor by buying them winter coats and bussing them to the cheap cities in this country.

    Take my son in Idaho. He left Ca and reports to me that food is 66 percent of the cost in my city where we both lived until this past may when he hauled ass to Idaho. Rents there are extremely cheap.
     
  8. LeftRightLeft

    LeftRightLeft Well-Known Member

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    The COALition love talking about the "trickle down affect". I think it will be more than a trickle though.
    The top end of the economy, wealth that only exists on paper but is what props economies up.
    Talking of the top end, any single middle aged men looking I hear that there is a reasonably eligible lady called Mackenzie.
     
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  9. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-11/scenarios-collapse-world-utterly-unprepared

    This mob are really on the money..so to speak...

    Scenario II: Systemic Meltdown
    Systemic crisis would mean that the global financial melts down due to an existential deficit of trust between counterparties within the system. Before 2008, a systemic meltdown was mostly a theoretical construct. However, in mid-October in 2008, global leaders were faced with the possibility that banks would not open on Monday. The interbank markets had frozen, because no one knew the amount of the losses banks carried on their books. The global financial system was grinding to a halt. Politicians and central bankers saved the day by guaranteeing bank deposits and by providing capital and extraordinary guarantees to keep the important financial institutions standing and credit flowing.

    Now the problem is that many of these measures are already in play and when the next crisis hits, the solvency of governments and central banks will also be in question. This creates a perilous situation because, for example, the shares of the global systemically important banks, G-SIBs, have been falling since the beginning of last year, which was also the time when the balance sheet normalization (QT) program of the Fed kicked into full gear. This is no coincidence and it implies that troubles are, once again, brewing in the banking sector.

    Because a crash in the asset values would affect the collateral of banks and because global depression would lead to a massive increase in loan losses, the already-impaired banking sector could, again, face collapse. However, this time around, there is very little authorities can do to stem the panic. These factors make the systemic meltdown an ominously-likely scenario.

    Systemic meltdown would mean that all banking actions, distribution of money, loans, swaps, banking services, etc., through the banking sector would stop. Credit cards would cease to function, ATMs would not give out money and loans could not be originated or rolled-over. Following the likely collapse of global trade, the world economy would also collapse. This would imply that the global GDP would experience a harrowing fall of 20 to 40 percent. Modern societies would cease to exist in their current form.

    BUT there is no guarantee of bank deposits in Australia.
    APRA have the power to activate a) a bank deposit guarantee or b) a bail in of depositors
    money. It has been estimated that a government guarantee of all depositors funds would cost the government 40 billion dollars...this is not funded..and cannot be funded..too large an amount for our government to fund.
    What then if the shyte hits the fan...they will activate a bail in....
    As Ive always posted....believe what you want to believe....find out for yourself.....
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  10. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    CIGA Alex sends us the trading history of the last two bear markets.

    [​IMG]

    No need to read between the lines. The storm is in view. It will be nothing you have seen before. Cognitive dissonance and wilful ignorance are your enemy.
    Time is running out on the debt bubble and fiat money experiment. Liquidity and counter party free collateral disappearing. Finish making preparations for massive wealth redistribution that ensues from financial and monetary collapse. Then fasten your seatbelt.
     
  11. LeftRightLeft

    LeftRightLeft Well-Known Member

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    I have spent the last 10 years setting myself up to weather the storm. I have seen it coming for a long time ,the clouds are getting darker and the thunder is getting louder.

    Good luck everyone.
     
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  12. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-13/powell-may-not-know-it-yet-fed-now-trapped

    Well, as I say from time to time...who woulda thought....
    The Fed is incompetent...and I DO know more than the Fed...They will reduce rates this year, exactly as Ive been saying for weeks...but this will not stop the world wide systemic chaos and destruction of the system as we know it.....only LRL and I seem to see it....great minds think alike.....
     
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  13. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    I notice that Deutschbank is meeting fortnightly with the German Finance Ministry.
    I wonder why.......
    I said in my 2019 predictions that the first domino to fall would be DB
    Even if they amalgamate with Commerzbank, they are both rooted.
    Imagine if you were meeting with your doctor, and he said come back in two weeks,
    then come back in two weeks, then come back in two weeks.......again and again..
    Youd be rooted wouldnt you...cancer or something else seriously advanced
    DB will collapse this year....
     
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  14. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    This is not a picture of a healthy global economy.....damn...we only got a silver.....

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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  16. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    http://www.bfcsa.com.au/index.php/about-bfcsa/about-denise-brailey
    This woman deserves a medal....
    http://www.cecaust.com.au/Pass-Glass-Steagall/

    "80% of loans in Australia are INTEREST ONLY"
    The borrowers cant even afford P and I loans...banks staff
    tell her we only have one product....IO loans......
    Fuk me.....no low doc loans no sub prime problem....IO loans is the phrase now.....
    ASIC has admitted to her that all loans are RUBBER STAMP APPROVED...
    Fuk me again....
    This woman has worked for years against the banks..watch her 1 hour video...its GOLD...
    80% of home loans are toxic sub prime loans...
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2019
  17. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    oops...

    .
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2019
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  18. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    I see Halifax Online Investment Services has collapsed, leaving investors 25 million
    dollars out of pocket...I wonder what the real amount is....50 million..100 million...
    These are the so called "investment experts....."....pft...

    "Halifax ran three online trading platforms: MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5 and Interactive Brokers.

    According to liquidators Ferrier Hodgson, there are serious hurdles in reconciling investor money, with the three sources being mixed together.

    “While the [Interactive Brokers] platform may be ‘whole’ in that it is fully funded, investor funds have been mixed or co-mingled in such a way that the taint affects the claims of all investors on all three platforms in both the Australian and New Zealand businesses,” the administrator said to creditors.

    “The process of allocating and tracing individual investor funds will likely be a complex and lengthy process.”

    ...
     
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  19. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-14/peter-schiff-beginning-end-economy
    Peter Schiff, the President and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, and one of the few who predicted the 2008 Great Recession before it happened has said that what we are experiencing now is “the beginning of the end.” Schiff made his comments during his keynote speech at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference.
    The economic guru says that the Federal Reserve has made the decision to halt interest rate hikes in order to attempt to save the flailing stock market – the key indicator for far too many of how “healthy” the economy is at current. According to Seeking Alpha, the markets responded to the Fed’s decision in a positive manner, leading many to think we are “out of the woods” and no longer in danger of a recession.

    However, Peter traces the moves of the Federal Reserve all the way back to the first rate hike of December 2015 and shows how the central bank has put the United States on a path toward a financial crisis that will be bigger than 2008. Peter insists he’s been right about what would happen all along, it’s just taken us a little longer to get to the actual financial disaster than he expected.
    End quote.
    Funny..
    I predicted 3 or4 months ago the US Fed would stop raising interest rates this year as it was raising rates into a recession...
    So much for having the intellect of a Year 4..
    Australian rates will also reduce, probably back to zero..
    I wonder if any other posters will have the balls to make a prediction on our future..
    No they just sit back and criticize...no balls....
     
  20. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    Ill make another prediction...
    Australian interest rates, in years to come will revert to a negative rate...meaning you will pay the banks
    to allow them to keep your money....$100 deposited today when you withdraw it next week will be will become $98......
    Its coming....
    Reg.
     
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  21. LeftRightLeft

    LeftRightLeft Well-Known Member

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    Negative interest would be a lot better than the other option, locking the door.
    There will be no money.
     
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  22. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...tion-clearance-rates-house-price-falls-2019-2
    Given the tendency for preliminary estimates to be revised lower as tardy, often unsuccessful results, come to hand, and with reporting rates weak, CoreLogic expects the final clearance rate for the week to fall back below the 50% level when released in three days time.
    Dont worry folks, the conmen using the vendors bid will keep the prices as high as possible, just to keep the oligarchs and the elites happy.....vendors bids...the main reason house prices stay unaffordable to the masses...
    Who would want the vendors bid abolished...certainly not the governments...less stamp duty...not the
    real estate industry...less commission....not the politicians...less profit on their numerous investment properties...not the banks...less people indebted to them...
    Lets see...who's left....oh yes...first home buyers....stuff them........
    Abolish the vendors bid and watch house values come down....will never happen....too much greed.....
     
  23. m2catter

    m2catter Well-Known Member

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    Well,
    aren't we there already? Interest vs inflation rate! I bet we aren't far off....
    Reg.
     
  24. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    Im not talking about interest rate versus inflation equals zero.
    Im talking about depositing your money into a bank account and the bank charging you a negative interest
    rate to keep your money..totally different thing...
    The IMF discussed this some time ago and decided in their wisdom to put it on the back burner...
    When the world economies sh1t themselves, negative interest will be introduced...
     
  25. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-13/stocks-pumpndump-rubio-ruins-border-deal-bonanza
    Go down to the last graph. You will see how the 1937 S and P overlaps the current S and P..
    There is a gap of about six weeks until the 2019 S and P reaches the same point as the 1937 S and P...
    What happens in six weeks......The UK finally leaves the EU via Brexit......
    Already European car manufacturers are saying that it will be catastrophic if its a "no deal"
    Brexit....
    Its common knowledge that car sales are by far the best indicator of a country's economy....
    They are tanking worldwide.....
     

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