Would the European Union collapse in 2017 ?

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by VotreAltesse, Mar 3, 2017.

  1. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Develop that argument by stating why the two others (services and people) would not be a unifying force.

    The rise in cross-border marriages is very strong. And educational institutions where, for instance, EU law is taught in English (in the Netherlands, as I recall) but the students are from all EU-countries.

    And as for services, well the Internet is the mechanism. The French selling into Germany will have to propose their services in German (and vice-versa). I see no reason whatsoever for that to not-happen.
     
  2. Latherty

    Latherty Well-Known Member

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    Well Brussels would say that, wouldn't they?

    I think there is a genuine difference in attitude between the EU and the UK, the UK believing in a free-trade bloc of politically similar countries engaged with the rest of the world and the EU (perhaps barring Germany) believing in an expanding quasi-state protecting internal trade and industries from the forces of globalization.

    These have become irreconcilable differences lately and the EU or UK would either need to volte face or a divorce was inevitable.

    I believe the EU will continue down its protectionist path in the Brexit negotiations and no deal, or only a minor deal, will be forthcoming. Nonetheless, Britain will survive and prosper, as will the EU, although neither as well as they might have done if they were united with common goals.
     
  3. Latherty

    Latherty Well-Known Member

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    He said capital and people.
    I can't speak for him but I would say this:
    Both relate to taxes and welfare (including in-work benefits and labour subsidy). Free movement of these items allow for rational market participants (capital and labour) to game different systems and weaken the effect of fiscal and monetary policies. The trickle-down effect is lost because the pool (of capital wealth) keeps moving and when do you manage to tap it, its trickling into an ocean (of labour) instead of a pond.

    The solution is to have a either singular fiscal system or prevent free movement of either capital or labour. Now the free movement of capital is something the Brits believe in, but never in a million years was the UK going to have a singular fiscal system with France. The last remaining piece is free movement of people.

    The UK begged the EU to relent on this but were told to F-off. So they did.

    However, now the remaining EU is better placed to harmonize its internal tax and welfare systems. I think this will be a good thing.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2017
  4. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We have to give ourselves the means. From a french point of view, I consider the EU is collapsing because most french are extremly despaired about the rise of poverty and we aren't the british or the german. We aren't patient or disciplined. We did 4 revolutions in less than 90 years and it forged our personnality as a people. And at the opposite of the USA, none of those revolution were an independance war but a war against our own elites.

    We are probably not able to accept the sacrifices that many people accepted.
     
  5. Canell

    Canell Well-Known Member

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    1. Capital. Frirst of all, not all EU countries are in the Eurozone. That poses some risks regarding national currencies and exchange rates. Second, money laudering. Free movement of capital seems great but how are we gonna be sure it's all clean and leagal?
    OK, some examples. 10 years ago the English came in our country, dumped a vast amout of money in real estate and created a bubble. As a consequence, the prices went way up and it's almost impossible for the average citizen to buy a real estate now without selling his/her ass to the banks for a long time mortgage. That's just one example that free movemnt of capital can have devastating effect.
    2. Free movement of people - this one is even worse. You can't just get your stuff and move to another place. You just can't. People are settled, communal beings, not animals to migrate to where the grass is green and there's plenty of food. Only animals and migrants migrate. :cool:
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2017
  6. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No doubt. But, contrary to some beliefs, I am of the opinion that Economic Demand is not something that one can finagle/control. It comes and goes all by itself - subject to only some external factors. (This last time it was the Great Recession imported lock, stock and barrell from the US.)

    Let's not forget the "potential" of the EU - which resides mostly in its population. That is, 738.8M individuals vs. 324.1 for the US. (Less Britain at 65M, if you like, but economically I doubt that makes much difference.) That makes for a great deal more potential. But, is Europe "realizing" that potential. (Zat iz zee kwestchun!)

    GDP per capita (US vs EU) is significantly different - $52.7K for the US and 35.2K for the EU. The US has a GDP/inhabitant 50% larger than the EU, which means that the EU relative growth rate is typically lower. But not by much, historically. See below (from here):
    [​IMG]

    So? So, growth in both countries is likely to not be terribly different one-from-the-other. Which means what?

    It depends upon how you interpret the purpose of economic growth. In Europe Income Disparity is far less flagrant than in the US. Meaning that - of the Income Generated - far more stays in the economy (since income is more highly taxed). Whereas in the US, with its much lower tax-rates of upper-income, more goes into Wealth - where it sits about gaining interest. And not much else because
    its usage as a "motor" for Hi-tech Investment is greatly exaggerated ...
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2017
  7. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You are implying, by using the word "game" (a verb) as negative.

    Yes, I am using cheap Romanian labor to renovate a house, so am I "gaming" the French employment system? Nope, because no law prevents me from doing so - for as long as it is done transparently.

    And why do the French not really care (though some do howl)? Because most of national tax-revenues come out of income Spent not income Declared.

    Methinks not. That just aint gonna happin. There are, yes, tax-revenues that are rendered to the EU; but that money (after a small rip-off paying gigantic salaries at Berlaymont in Brussels) is spent typically on those countries that need it most because they haven't sufficiently strong economies.

    This was not the reason Brexit was voted up in the election. It was a serious malaise of "British Identity" that a provoked a plurality of Brits who thought "our identity" as a nation was threatened by the migrants.

    (It's curious, however, how little they care about "British Identity" whenever they get howling drunk in Benidorm ... ;^)

    I doubt it will happen, but we'll see ...
     
  8. Latherty

    Latherty Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for you though-out and detailed response.

    Not intentional. I consider it completely rational behaviour.

    You misunderstand, I am suggesting the Romanian labourers are the ones gaming the system. But in any event, gaming the system is working within the laws, and I would suggest you are also gaming the system.

    In fact, in this example you are the capital owner. The proximity of local labourers is what they have to sell. The capital owner (you) and the labourers (Romanian) are both conspiring to disenfranchise the local labourers from income by utilising the EU's free movement of people rights.

    Th other potential disenfranchisement is the free movement of capital. In that case one might undertake the renovation in Romania to take advantage of local labour conditions, but that would involve moving the actual project, and I presume you don't want to live in Romania. Hence the "proximity" principle. Romania has just as beautiful forests etc, but because there is an ineffective safety net and poor labour laws, its not as nice a place to live for you. The pleasant life you enjoy in France is a result of having to pay more for labour, and thus can only be protected by preventing the free movement of cheap labour to undercut it.

    You may be the one howling after 8 May.

    This is how any federated country works, and the EU is nothing special in that regard.

    A key problem is that EU bureaucratic income is dependent on ever-expanding union territory, because the poorer countries come up to speed and then the bureaucracy needs new justification for its existence. A properly federalized EU would secure the income of the bureaucracy and soften this expansionary motivation.

    I'm afraid you're wrong, and that is why Remain lost. Certainly there were some who felt this way, just as there were some who said that Britain doesn't have any identity at all. But this wasn't identity politics. Remain played against identity politics and completely missed the argument where it mattered.

    It had very little to do with identity except at the margins. The core Brexit vote did concern immigration but mainly as it relates to perceived scarce resources, such as jobs, schools, housing etc. The underlying fact of the situation was that the governmental equalizers for low income earners were being stretched too thinly, whilst low income earners simply could not bargain for pay increases because labour was not scarce.

    If it doesn't federalize it will break apart
     
  9. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So the Brits are responsible for the Great Recession?

    Stoopid me, I thought it was because most of the subprime mortgages were falsely established and when bundled/sold to the world caused Wall Street's gravest banking-failure since the one in 1929 - etc., etc., etc.

    May I suggest you are rewriting history for argumentary purposes?

    The poorest in Romania are migrating to anywhere they can find a job, many to France and Italy - and, strangely enough, the unemployment rate is only 5.7%. The point being, however, that as members of the EU, they have every right to seek work wherever they want - and if they have no permanent residency, they need not pay taxes on their earnings. (Which tend to be in cash anyway). Of course, neither do they have the right to pubic services - like schooling and national-health.

    I repeat again, there is no difference in the right to work between any EU country, just like the US. That right is stipulated in the agreements signed when they joined the EU. Moreover, workers are fungible - they can work anywhere they want. But must establish themselves to work permanently.

    I should know, I was one of them once. With an American passport I could work anywhere in the EU. But that right was also reciprocated for Europeans working in the US.

    I suspect also that you do not understand that the EU has established and even bettered work-protection laws particularly compared to the US - and, in fact, aside from construction workers (who need not learn a local language) there is very little migration for work-purposes.

    Except for banking in the UK - and most mainland Europeans want to work there in order to master the English-language, such that they can find a better job when they go back to their home country ...
     
  10. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, well, moving right along ...
     
  11. Canell

    Canell Well-Known Member

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    Since London is somewhat the financial capital of Europe, yes.
    Mind my words, this EU won't exist in 2020.
     
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  12. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Was the financial capital of Europe. It is has been moving for months now. Reports have London bankers looking for offices in Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam.

    The EU will exist long after both of us have disappeared - you are indulging yourself in some wishful thinking ...
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2017
  13. Canell

    Canell Well-Known Member

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    Well, my "wishfull thinking" worked well when I guessed Brexit and Donald Trump victory. You can bookmark this thread and check it out in just 3 years time.
     
  14. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Minor events in the history of mankind, and we see how both have got off to a VERY BAD START.

    Good luck if you live in the UK - the hurt has not yet quite begun from your Brexit inanity ...
     
  15. Blücher

    Blücher Active Member

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    That's just false. The EU protects it's agriculture, all other economic sectors are in competition. Germany has the same trade deals like all the other EU countries and they are all having the same regulations in the single market.

    There are contries in the EU which tend to a more state driven economy but they were'nt successfull in promoting their ideas in the last decades.

    Britain will survive after the Brexit, that's clear. If Britain will prosper is quite unsure, they will not get better trade deals than an economic block like the EU. The Trump administration would love to have bilateral trade agreements with every european country, guess why. Germany just refused such an offer.
     
  16. Latherty

    Latherty Well-Known Member

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    The EU protects a number of industries as well. That's not necessarily a bad thing, just different to Britain's view. I did point out that Germany has a more progressive view, and that helps substantially to keep the protectionist ideologies of its Southern friends at bay.

    (Germany couldn't accept an offer anyway.) Any foreign government would prefer not to negotiate with the EU, it has too many conflicting priorities.
    The "jam tomorrow" argument has limited appeal. Britain will not get a "better" trade deal, it will get a tailored trade deal earlier. The UK is under no obligation to sign any deal, so it would only agree to one that is net beneficial to its interests.
    Which must be better than what it has at the moment, which is no trade deal but the hope that eventually 28 countries will agree a single platform.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2017
  17. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Wow! WRONG right down the line!

    There is nothing wrong with protecting agriculture. People have got to eat - and a country that does not protect its internal supply (as with energy) can find itself in deep, deep sneakers one day.

    IOW, farming is strategic in nature.

    All the countries, even Germany, are economically dependent upon EU internal trade. Just like within the US.

    This key factor of any economic union should be self-evident! From the Guardian, here:
    Any way you look at them, those numbers are important to both sides of the English Channel. And it's a shame that more Brits did not understand that simple fact-of-life before the Brexit vote.

    Germany was doing what they all will do - refuse just about any deal with Trump until he's left office. (Smart move, I say. The dork can't seem to focus on Europe any further than his golf-course in Scotland.)

    So yes, the UK is going to be on the outside looking in to the EU from here on and not from the inside looking out. It has lost all its "say" in transnational negotiations amongst the EU states.

    I cannot imagine anything more stoopid for a "European" country to have desired ...
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2017
  18. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    CAREER PATHS

    About Brussels, I agree with you. It is a Political Animal where both incompetent and competent national politicians go to "round out" their revenue stream. Otherwise, who would hire an ex-politician unelected in their own country? One cannot "do politics" without making enemies on one or both sides of the political-divide (Left or Right).

    Which is why I wonder if Centrist Politicians do not have a brilliant career awaiting them - after all, both the Right and the Left have proven well enough their incompetence to lead. In terms of political decision-making, don't the real answers come from both sides of the aisle - that is, somewhere in the center?

    The present run of EU Management has been a sick-list of has-been politicians - with Borroso claiming the title for wanting to join-the-enemy by accepting the job as "advisor" to Goldman Sachs. Advising what?, one might ask. He has no business experience whatsoever - having been an economics teacher, then politician at Berlaymont to culminate his career.

    Stories like this are unending and not only of EU-politics. Which is why it's a damn fine idea that nobody should be allowed to an elected or appointed job in politics more than twice in a row. There must be an hiatus between assignments - politics need not be a "career path".

    Why? Because the problem with politics in general is that it stagnates - the blood is not renewed by new people who see the wall-of-promotion shutting them out - so the good ones leave politics (or administrations that are the breeding ground of political wannabes) for either education or business.

    And the hacks simply carry on.

    This represents a real loss of competent talent, and the encrustation of "old people with old ideas" at the top of the Political Pyramid in any country and not just the EU.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2017
  19. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    Thank god for that.

    Loads of countries have had referendums and voted to leave the EU. We will be the first to respect one.
    The first to respect democracy. The first to respect the wills of our own people over the wills of foreign diplomats.

    As always we lead the free world. I predict just as when we ended slavery, that others will have no choice but to follow our lead. Otherwise we are going to get another World War starting in Europe. Again.


    I'm hard, so the "hard way" isn't going to be an issue for me. Water off a ducks back.
    It is however going to be an issue for all those people I won't be paying for anymore. They are going to have some hard times of their own.

    I look forward to the EU changing it's national language. What weak fools they all look now.
    English is the language of money. Learn it if you want to make some.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2017
  20. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    EMOTIONAL REFERENDUMS

    Rather naive that thought.

    "People" are generally stoopid when it comes to direct governance, as in Referendums. Which is why there are so damn few of them. Referendums are fickle, and for that reason cannot be trusted with voters who generally take no real interest in how a country is run*.

    Then all it takes is a supposed threat to their own existence - this time, in the form of some Jihadis-evil moving into the brick-house next door in a suburb of Birmingham?

    Like what happened to the Brits, emotional referendums can be led astray. Voters respect democracy ONLY when they listen to national leaders who discuss socio-economic policies and promise to implement them.

    Then (and only then) "the people" make a judgemental choice devoid of emotion and go back to work tending their vegetable-gardens. That's all.

    There is no economic benefit whatsoever from leaving one of the world's largest combined market-economies. (Larger than the US!)

    Of course, the proof is in the pudding - isn't it. We shall see. I already have Brit neighbors working at local international companies here in France wondering where the hell their job is going tomorrow and do they want to follow it ...

    ABOUT THE SWISS AND THEIR REFERENDUMS

    In fact, I am generally favorable to referendums and wish there were more of them.

    But, it will take a great long time for the properly educated (postsecondary degree level) to be in the majority and of the educational calibre to employ them usefully. They would make for a good counterbalance to political-majorities that can be corrupted.

    Works wonders in Switzerland, which has had them for more around 150 years. Yes, read about that stupendous revelation here.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2017
  21. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, the people are generally stupid.
    Which is why I won't allow your stupidity to overrule my stupidity.

    I don't much care to need your education before being allowed a say. I have my own. I do not wish to be a serf in your oligarchy. Sorry.

    Do the interests of people without post grad degree's not concern you? Do they not count?
    Did you think going to school for an extra two years made you superior to me?
    Who would be ruled by such as you? Not I.

    In a referendum voters have no need to listen to politicians at all. Everyone's say is equal. Politician is just another subject in a referendum. He represents no one but himself either. Sure he talks. But who listens? What reason does anyone have to listen to man who represents no one. Who has no greater authority than yourself?
    No one cares about politicians in a referendum. We only hold them at all because our politicians have failed in their representation. Because our politicians hold no authority over us.



    There has been instant economic benefit for me from Brexit. Instant. Within 2 days of the referendum.
    The pound has fallen. I got more student bookings the very next day. Doubled my numbers.

    There was however no economic benefit to me from joining the EU. I got poorer every year of it's existence.
    Every year of our membership.

    I benefit from it not one penny. The opposite is more true.



    Voters respect democracy when their vote is respected in it.
    There is no other way.

    The Swiss just voted to end free movement of people from the EU.
    Same as we just did.
    Seems fine to me. What's the problem?
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2017
  22. Mandelus

    Mandelus Well-Known Member

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    I agree …
    For a long time, we have been struggling with a political swamp in almost all countries, where a political establishment has formed over decades that has lost its connection with reality and its population.
    For this establishment, the population is immature, so they are very reluctant to allow any kind of popular decision. Unfortunately, however, this annoying population has to elect about every 4 years them and woe the population puts the cross on the ballot in the wrong place!
    Then they are already playing directly the master's apprentice and have to teach us how stupid we are, not to elect the establishment.

    The guilty are always the voters and the "wrong parties" who got their voice ... because directly the corresponding phrases come and seldom the admission, that they themselves have caused fault. No, much more comes BS because of "we have not explained our own political goals well enough" instead of the admission that the voters are just being rid of these things and against!

    In this atmosphere, populists have an easy game because they only have to call all the things at the Namne, express them, be against them and have a great ear for the desires and problems of the population and sell themselves and the whole only correspondingly well medial ! Last example is Donald Trump, but there was also example before, such as Berlusconi in Italy.
    The sad thing is that too many people believe too long this populist, but in reality they just pull off a huge show, but do not really make or improve anything.

    Brussels is theoretically superior to the local governments and is supposed to be even more theoretical. Again, there is an incredible arrogance against EU citizens, which is already breathtaking.
    Here is also so ... as you have already mentioned ... that there are old political nags and second-class politicians sitting, which failed in their homelands. A good example is Donald Tusk from Poland. In his country elected with a gossip from office, he continues to be EU Council President. This is why the concept of Brussels is told to be a “politician social welfare station”, where politicians in their countries are finding a new job! Motto:
    "Fly out of your local parliament after an election, no problem! Let yourself be prepared for the EU Parliament or better, go as a commissioner, etc. to Brussels!"

    The EU has expanded too far too quickly, and everything that has not been said at “Three” a clear No has become a new member. This is also the reason why the EU is ultimately a toothless tiger. The previous steps of the forced marriage of the members have not yet led to the final marriage ceremony, yes you are very engaged with very much goodwill! It shows approaches like a Federal Government to act, but has however not all necessary rights (fortunately not!). Take, for example, Poland and Hungary ... this time not with the persistence of refugees. The EU has clear common principles and guidelines to which every member has to adhere. This also includes fundamental democratic things such as full freedom of the press, completely independent judiciary and completely free elections!
    Both Hungary and Poland violate these principles massively and with the utmost intent of the current governments. But apart from "you bad" comes from Brussels and comes from none of the other member countries something real as criticism or even consistency.

    The EU has to reform itself deeply and to be brought back into tracks … and this will only go to cancel done wrong steps too … so stepping back in parts, because otherwise it will not worked.
    A nice comparison from the press was this: "The EU has got a great car and is allowed to drive without speed limit …. Great ... dumb is only, there is no engine in it, the petrol tank is full of holes and the nearest gas station is 100 miles away, the nearest workshop even 200 miles!”… So kick the car away and ride a bike until the car will work!
     
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  23. Wen

    Wen Member

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    Maybe not in 2017 but I'm pretty sure it will collapse within 2020 :tombstone: :D
     
  24. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    Yes, that's one that's going to keep us all awake at night kicking ourselves.
    Ooo Ow. Stupid stupid stupid.

    Er. No.
    Who gives a ****. Really? Who cares.
    Carry on. Transnationally negotiate away to your hearts desires.

    The UK's not likely to be doing so much of the "looking in" any more. More of a doing other stuff.
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2017
  25. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    You get a prize! That is the correct answer.
     
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