Your Electoral College Predictions

Mine, by a mile.

Correct.

Yes, but when those erroneous assumptions are made on purpose, then the poll is fake. Most polling purposely over-samples Dems until a week or two out from the election.

They also continuously over-sampled Dems until right before the election day...

Meh.

It is repeating the "Dem oversampling until a week out" "error", and they are wrong because young people and black people are not turning out this time around, and more blacks/hispanics are supporting Trump than they think...

Your prediction is based on something that is all but meaningless, as described in detail here:
https://politiplex.freeforums.net/thread/82/value-polls-debunked

Rally sizes, yard signs that I see when driving throughout my State, accounts from other people about yard signs in their States, talking to people in public, accounts from other people talking to other people in other States, and the campaign stops (the decisions that each campaign is making)... For example, WTF is Biden doing in Georgia?? He has no chance of winning Georgia, and the Senate races are going to be won by Republicans... He's just trying to salvage house seats. Meanwhile, Trump is hitting FL and PA hard, and has been all over the Midwest and Arizona/Nevada...

I've also looked into early voting data, which is looking very good for Republicans, especially in Florida. I'm also basing it on the truth that, since 1968, a rightward shift in Florida means a rightward shift in various other States, including MI, PA, WI, MN, and others... The one thing that I have completely and utterly ignored in my prediction is polling of any sort, even the Trafalgar Group polling of which I think will end up being fairly close to reality, like their polling was in 2016...

See above. Also, the youth vote is significantly down in early returns in Michigan. Young voters seem to not be turning out this time around, which is bad news for Dems...

Also the fact that Trump has adamantly supported the oil/fracking/auto/manufacturing industries which are quite important to those States, meanwhile Biden helped to kill those jobs and does not support those industries (even though he's tried speaking out of both sides of his mouth on the issue)...

Enthusiasm for Trump is through the roof, and his supporters deeply love him for standing up for them. Biden has no enthusiasm beyond people who have been brainwashed into despising Trump. Love will trump hate come next week...

326-212, Trump wins.

 

I can't really make any prediction here, as far as the EC goes. Too many polls are close or within in margin of error, and with constant attempts to sabotage the mail and the SC now saying that we don't have to count all votes that are submitted on time, who knows at this point? Biden will win the popular vote, but the EC has too many variables for me to make a prediction there.

 

This will not age well.

 

This will not age well.

I'm willing to bet that Trump even wins the popular vote this time around...

 

This won't age well.

 

Tell you what, I'll take you up on that. If Trump wins the popular vote, I'll donate $25 to the charity of your choice. If Biden wins the popular vote, I'll donate $25 to the charity of your choice. Official vote counts only. Deal?

 

Finally one that isn't completely crazy, but still won't age well... Trump will win plenty more States than that...

 

Deal.

 

Including that we'll use official counts only? No "those votes are fake" excuses?

 

Correct. Official count only.

 

I predict that Biden will lead by a few electoral votes, and Trump will refuse to concede.

 

He might but I am trying to be on the conservative side of realistic. My working theory is that all the pollsters came into the year with the same group think that they need to weight down college degree holders in 2020 because in 2016 Trump did better with those with no college degrees than expected based on polling. The problem is with COVID, they are probably over sampling the people worst affected by the virus who are bored enough sitting at home out of work to sit for a 20 minute poll and therefore undersampling the blue collar workers who are actually going to work. Time will tell.

 

Oversampling a group is only problematic if they fail to weight their results properly. Perhaps that's what your claiming occurred, but give me some evidence to support your claim.

The article lists some hypothetical problems that can occur in polling. Show me analyses of specific 2016 polls that show these errors actually occurred. Also bear in mind that 2016 polls pretty accurately predicted the popular vote, and it's hard to see how that could have occurred if your thesis is correct. Where they failed was in tight races in a few key states.

Frankly, with what you've given me so far, it's suggests you're looking for excuses to deny the polling. Maybe you have more.

I live in Montgomery County Texas. This county routinely votes overwhelmingly Republican - 80-90%. My particular neighborhood is affluent (lots of homes costing 7 figures), is close to the Exxon-Mobil Campus, and our precinct is invariably at the high end of that range. Much to my surprise, there's about an equal number of Trump and Biden signs. From this, I extrapolate a general loss of support for Trump vs 2016. He'll win Texas, but by a smaller margin. Any loss of votes on swing states will result in a Trump loss. Of course, I recognize my own bias - that's the problem with making predictions based on personal observation and anecdotal evidence. I don't mind admitting that my prediction is based on polls- but even so, I'm not just chalking up a Biden win for every state in which he has a small margin. So I think I'm being pretty objective with my forecast. We'll see next week which of us had the better prediction.

 

It's a pretty safe bet that Trump won't concede no matter the margin. After winning in 2016, he insisted he won the popular vote, and initiated an investigation that never went anywhere. It will be a miracle if the courts don't end up involved if Trump loses.

 

Well, I don't see any reason to think any polls were done dishonestly, but certainly some errors were made. The "shy Trump" voter is a theory, not necessarily a fact, BTW.

Like hurricane tracking predictions, we learn by past errors. Perhaps pollsters didn't learn what they needed to learn from 2016, but maybe they did. We'll find out next week.And let's be honest: you hope the polls are wrong, just as I hope they're right.

 

1. I don't see any reason for Trump hating fake news to pay $$$ for polls contradicting the narrative they are pushing. Given how easy it is to manipulate polls and how unverifiable their results with the exception of the final poll are it is frankly a no-brainer. Also, Trump may win or lose.... they idea that he is 10% behind just does not pass the smell test. No one really buys this nonsense, betting sites give Trump about 35% chance of winning, if people believed he is 10% behind, he'd be getting 2%, not 35%.

2. I am not a theory, I am a "shy" Trump voter. And there is millions of people like me, working for major companies, financial, computer, healthcare industries, education etc... we may support Trump but we ain't talking, we have absolutely no interest in losing our good jobs because of some woke idiots whining that the support of Trump is microaggression or whatever lol. You better believe this woke cancel culture comes at a price, people are not talking but they vote in droves.

 

I agree it would be nonsensical to predict Trump will lose by 10 percentage points, and anyone who does that is misinterpreting the polls. Inferring a 35% chance of winning is probably a pretty good inference - and it is based on the polls.

I worked for Exxon-Mobil for many years. I was a shy Democrat, the same as you describe your circumstances as a shy Trump supporter. That isn't the same as failing to reply honestly in an anonymous poll.

 

It is to me and It's different now, the cancel culture did not exist just a couple of years ago. Regardless, I don't even answer the phone if I don't know the number, I would never talk to a pollster, I despise them and have zero trust in their discretion with my phone number and poll results, for all I know the information can be hacked, why on earth would I take a chance, even a tiny one.

 

Here is my prediction. It gives Biden 271.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/







or he trades Michigan for Ohio, or even possibly Florida.

either way, right now I think it will be close but it will be Biden.

 

I'll just leave it at this. But it'll be me, because I'm completely ignoring the bogus polling and you aren't, and I am looking at early voting data (and you aren't)...

 

This won't age well.

 

Will Biden concede when Trump blows him out of the water next week?

 

This won't age well... There is no way in hell that Biden wins the Rust Belt...

 

Not a Chance. None.

Trump would be lucky to get 47%.

Trump may have a hard time duplicating the 46.1% that he got last time.

"Trump Win the Popular Vote"?

 

Yeah, Right.

Biden should take back MI, WI, and PA.