Your Electoral College Predictions

Of course. Biden is normal.

I must say that I admire your optimism. You should bet every dollar you can get your hands on, on this outcome you're so certain of.

In (what you consider to be)the unlikely event that Trump loses, will you mea culpa on the polling?

Let's be in touch when it's all decided (next week? next month?). It's been fun.

 

Then you aren't the sort of "shy Trump supporter" that distorts polls. To distort them, you have to participate in them.

BTW, I also hang up on pollsters.

 

They weight the results to compensate for imbalances like that. It would only be a problem if they got an unrepresentative sample. That would lead to high fluctuations from poll to poll. We do see a lot of fluctuation, but they still consistently in Biden's favor.

 

If they are all weighting in the same direction you would not necessarily see it. I have not read of a single poll weighting for that. Race, Gender, Age, College Degree, and location are the only weights I have seen stated in the 2020 polls. I think one is weighting for Race and Education combined to separate blacks by whether they have college degrees but I forget which one that is.

 

I don't think you understand what I'm saying.

Suppose a poll is conducted with 100 people. 10 of the people are non-College educated, and 8 of these support Trump. 90 of the people are college educated and 40 of them support Trump.

Now suppose there are 1 million voters, and half are non-College educated.
The Trump vote would be estimated like this: (.8*500K + .4*500K)

So it doesn't' matter how many poll participants are in each demographic, as long as 1) they've identified the demographics that are most relevant. 2) they have a statistically significant number of participants in each of those demographics

#1 was a problem in 2016 polling: college vs non-college was not adequately accounted for. #2 could skew a single poll, but it's highly unlikely to skew consistently across multiple polls over a long period. This is why polling analysts point out the consistency of Biden's polling, across multiple pollsters and over a long period of time.

 

And Trump's polling has been wildly inconsistent. Trump's numbers are not the outlying ones though. Something about Biden's being almost immovable in any direction since getting the nomination is fishy in light of the wild swings in Trump's numbers.

 

The polling I'm referring to has consistently shown an advantage for Biden over Trump - the two go hand in hand. What are you looking at? Trump's approval/disapproval rates have been relatively stable for a sitting President.

 

Trump has a 52% approval rating with 41% being strong approval. The election polls are not consistent with that number. Weighting down the college educated may not be the right way to account for non-college educate turn out in 2016.

 

according to whom? Breitfart??

LOLOL!!!!

its actually only 41%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/adults/

 

Ramussen says 52%, and is certainly an outlier.

 

There is only 1 company doing the daily presidential approval poll.

 

So I make this prediction not based upon feeling but based upon math. Democrats have banked their strategy on a large number of mail in ballots. They wanted to overwhelm the republicans with early voting so that come Election Day the republicans had too much ground to make up. They need AT LEAST a 2:1 advantage for that strategy to have a chance at winning. Furthermore a poll recently came out asking who had voted already. Slightly more than 50% of democrats stated they had already voted with slightly less than 25% of republicans saying they had already voted.

I looked at early voting numbers and especially the states that report early votes by party affiliation. If the state didn’t have AT LEAST 150% more democrats in early voting as republicans i marked it as a trump win. If they had more than 225% I marked it as a Biden win.

If they had between 150-225% advantage for democrats in early voting, I doubled the democrats number and increased the Republican number by 75%. The resulting map looks like this and is therefore my prediction.

295 Trump 243 Biden

 

I guess on the bright side, Trump could still win in your map if he loses both Michigan and Nevada, which would leave him at 273. Not much wiggle room anywhere else though. I kind of doubt he'll win either Colorado or NM.

 

This is my pessimistic map with PA going to Trump due to cheating tactics.

But Biden still wins. If Biden carries PA then even better.

 

wow such an incredibly insightful analysis, Biden takes Georgia, Iowa, Arizona, no less. Why won't you throw in Texas, Alabama and Utah for him for good measure while you're toobining to your vivid election fantasies

 

Even CNN admits Trump is now up in IA.

In FL, Biden only has a 5% lead among hispanics, last time Hillary had a 30% lead. Biden will do much worse in Miami/Dade Co. which is supposed to be the big Dem stronghold.

 

Yep, suddenly in RCP Trump is up in Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Texas, within 0.5% in Arizona.

And Florida is in the bag, Trump'll win it by a much bigger margin than he did in 2016.

 

Thank goodness for Trafalger eh?

 

So this is my prediction.

 

Rasmussen also said Obama's was 50% right before his re-election.

 

I'm not aware of a successful POTUS who won while losing both OH and FL. I have to believe MN is in play, why else would Biden campaign there late? His party hasn't lost that state since 1972.

 

The major FLAW in that map is that Nevada is going to go for BIDEN.

 

Except. Trump could Easily Lose the Election (even if he carried both).

As long as Biden adds PA, MI, and WI to the Clinton Map.

 

But a lot of Democrats and moderates detest Trump because he mocked their concerns for four years. They're highly motivated to oust Trump.

An urban myth.

Not as true as it was when blue-collar whites were voting Democratic.

This is a strange election because of SARS-CoV-2. I can't tell if Democrats got their vote out.

 

But a lot of Democrats and moderates detest Trump because he mocked their concerns for four years. They're highly motivated to oust Trump.

An urban myth.

Not as true as it was when blue-collar whites were voting Democratic.

There is so much confusion because of voter suppression, mail-in and drip-off voting, early voting, and the coronavirus impact on voting that we really don't how it will impact normal voting patterns.

Your map says who wins Pennsylvania wins the White House.

Could be...