Zelensky says the timing of Ukraine's counteroffensive has been set

1 hr 15 min ago
Zelensky says the timing of Ukraine's counteroffensive has been set

From CNN's Mariya Knight

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a decision had been made on the timing of Ukraine's counteroffensive in his nightly address on Monday.

“As usual, the commander-in-chief and the commanders of the operational directions reported to the staff,” Zelensky said. "Not only the supply of ammunition, not only the training of new brigades, not only our tactics. But also, the timing. This [the timing] is what is most important. The timing of how we will move forward. We will.”

“The decisions have been made,” he added.

Zelensky did not provide further details on when the counter offensive would launch.​

Live updates: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-29-23/index.html

It sounds like the rubber is going to meet the road very soon now. There are all sorts of possibilities for the direction of attack and objectives. The most likely possibility as assessed by experts in the west is a drive towards Mariupol to sever the land bridge between Crimea and Muscovy. But there are other possibilities as well.

What do you think? How successful will it be? Given past performance on both sides, I expect to see significant gains for Ukraine by fall, assuming this does begin very soon, and weather and ground conditions are finally becoming favorable, which no doubt has played a key role in deciding the timing.

Might Muscovy sabotage the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in a desperate bid to stop the offensive? They have recklessly used it as a military base already and apparently exploded a mine nearby in April:

https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news...s-in-the-perimeter-of-the-Zaporizhzhia-plant/

 

And in related news, the battlefield continues to be shaped in Ukraine's favor:

2 min ago
Russia is transferring forces to Bakhmut to replace Wagner fighters, Ukrainian military says

From CNN's Mariya Knight

Russia has been transferring its forces to Bakhmut to replace fighters from the Wagner group, said Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Eastern Grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, during an interview with Ukrainian media on Monday.

"Yes, [Russia] is currently rotating its units [in Bakhmut] – primarily in light of the significant losses the Wagner Group has suffered. They are forced to do it, not for any other reason,” Cherevatyi said. “Units of airborne forces and motorized infantry units of are entering [Bakhmut]. We know what units they are; we know their commanders and their combat capabilities."

Cherevatyi noted “all of these Russian units have been taking part in hostilities since 24 February 2022 and have sustained significant losses.”

He also said that Russia used “recently mobilized soldiers” to replenish those units.

In recent days, “the dynamics of combat clashes in the Bakhmut direction have been approximately the same," Cherevatyi said.

Some context: Cherevatyi’s comments echoed those of Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, who said Russians are “replacing troops from Wagner with regular units and trying to stabilize the defense in this area."

On Sunday, the head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said the handover of his fighters' positions in Bakhmut to Russian army units may extend to June 5.​

Live updates: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-29-23/index.html

 

Cut the land bridge.....liberate Mariupol & Melitopol...this way Crimea gets starved.

ZNPP is a worry....plucking Orc zombies might try to destroy it and cause another Chornobyl....in a war zone.

If this happens.....$hit hits the fan....NATO airstrikes destroy Russki conventional forces....as well as Black Sea fleet.

Vova chew-wahk meets his Ceaucescu moment.

 

It will depend largely on whether Ukraine is going to use the same strategy that worked last time and whether the Russians are prepared for it this time.

Russians are historically predictable- they fail to respond effectively to any new strategy until it kicks their ass. Then, they respond to it by getting good at it, because clearly it kicks ass.

Its not the most efficient way of learning, but its effective when numbers are on your side.

If Ukraine just does more 'thunder runs' I dont foresee success. But what else have they got?

 

Past performance from Ukranian side was mostly defense operations. The counter offensive opetation is a different thing. It is always more difficult to attack than to defense and being good at defense does not mean being good at offensive operations. Taking into account that Ukraine has no air superiority (I assume they do not have F-16?) I do not expect much success of the offensive operations from Ukranian side.

 

Ohh...look, viska chew-vahk...drahs-see-dyah....pahspahkooysah, neh plahtch....seems like the orcs are in a pickle....Kremlin sounds worried about the "next step".....when successful, is the end of Putinka chew vahk.

The end game is the removal of Kremlun chimp and fragmenting the RuZZfascista $hitshow.

F16s will show up....viska chew vahk.....same as Abrams.

Those Kinzals are something else....getting popped by 30+ yr old Patriots.....Putinka had a meltdown and arrests his "scientists"?

Air superiority??....how's the 3 day op going on 460?....for the orcs? Epic fail?

 

So you have no doubt zoom, that Ukraine will be successful in the offensive operation?

 

Never said I had any "doubts"....just pointed out scenarios.....viska chew-vahk?

 

...you mean other than the liberation of the following regions previously taken by the Russians....such as....



and also...



The thing is that Ukraine has already shown the Russian MOD to be a festering pile of odourous crap by reducing a once proud force to the level of being totally combat ineffective; the "10 day Special Operation" was designed as a lightening strike conducted by one of the most capable military forces in the world and with some of its crack units against a country and force a fraction of the size and against a country possessing nothing other than determined men and women armed with some manpads a few TB2s and old cast off Russian kit. That force stopped Russia in its tracks and then kicked the living crap out of them. So now where are the Russians and their crack units? Other than digging WWI style defences manned by conscripts, Russia has no crack units left!! No depth in defence, no mobile forces capable of handling a Ukraine combined arms force no tank units or even much in the way of artillery ...but hey....everyone's already aware of that so just sit back and watch the other red areas fall. Its a pisser I know, but then as the old phrase goes....

 

I mean Mariupol, Bakhmut, Melitopol and some other cities in Ukraine. From what has Russia annexed most of the territories have not been returned back.

 

No annexation viska....no votes....just occupantam.....

Seems the Mongols gave you "slaves" bad lessons.

But...in the end RuZZfascista will fragment even more....a good thing.

Warsaw Pact....USSR....now RF....for the grand finale.

What's to annex in Bakhmut??....all rubble....remaining Wankers that withdrew were fired upon by AFU.....100+ "improved".

I'm hearing Crimean "crime boss" Aksyonov creating "private armies" to engage AFU in Krym.....chomu tseh?.....viska chew-vahk?

I suspect Aksie doesn't have much confidence in Olfibo boy scouts?

 

.....the end of that sentence is "yet...."

 

It is not beyond Putin to try and destroy something that he cannot have. So his creating another Chornobyl is very possible.

 

Hopefully, it goes well but they will need to master combined arms and achieve a breakthrough in the first day or two. If not it gives time for Russia to respond defensively which would be bad.

 

Quite possible....if ZNPP is destroyed or damaged.....scary to think of the consequences.

As I said earlier....if that occurs....massive US/NATO airstrikes on Russian forces....or what's left of them.

 

So you think West will respond that way? Well maybe. That radiation would affect the entire Black Sea areas. Rumania, Bulgaria, Turkey , Russia Arzibezian, maybe Georgia also.
I asked myself are the Russians that stupid! Answer is obvious.

 

Depends upon if Ukraine has received enough of the promised armor and other Western weapons and supplies. I am sure the US and or U.K. has been secretly offering advice on Ukrainian plan. Ukrainians have had combined arms training but now putting training to use is something else. So agree in principle with you. I am not sure Ukrainians have used combined arms training yet. I could be wrong.

 

I've just heard that Storm Shadow cruiser hit a Russki base in Mariupol.....reports of 300 or more casualties.....more orcs improved.

 

Quite possible.....radiation is a scary thing.....rewrites your DNA....too close a proximity to other NATO states.

Are RuZZkis that stupid??....is the Pope Catholic?....

 

Hope that casualty count is accurate.

 

Good. Defense against hostile military invasion from an authoritarian power. What's not to like?

 

...was this the explosion today at Azovstal?

 

It's possible....

 

He had better not be holding back to match dates with operation overlord. That is the stupidest thing I've heard today, and I've already talked to some brosheviks today.

 

Maybe....

How about Bagration?....Jun22/44?