Romney Takes Lead in Ohio as Obama Campaign Panics

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People who use cells exclusively are much less likely to vote. And are younger, and notorious for turning out in small numbers.
The youngsters in college now dont have the enthusiasm from before. I talked to alot of kids and it was so prevelant that many are now able to say "I helped vote in the first black president",
.....That is no longer an incentive. Many who graduated are in that, "reality hits you right in the face", its part of the process that turns people into conservatives as life goes on. They were optimistic, now they cant find a job. Disillusionment sets in, they change their vote, or dont vote at all.

I'll take the word of the many experts I have heard talk on this, with no rebuttal from liberals, than your word.

It would be if he had done even a half as-s job of governing.

But we arent talking about overcoming. We are talking about skewed polls, and even with that, romney and obama are tied in many, statistically, and the breaking undedicdeds will go with ROMNEY
. I have heard many of them interviewed and they are saying they are waiting for Obuma to give them a reason to vote for him again, but since he hasnt, they are still waiting, and since he wont, they wont vote for him either.

NY TIMES hahhaha, see how far out of whack their polls are. They should call it the NY Communist Times, along with the LA Times, pieces of crap they call newspapers.

My IQ isnt that great, I think its around 138, I went to school with alot of people with much higher. It was special classes. But my math, in particular my statistical abilities are almost off the charts. I dont do well in English. My wife's first language is filipino, and she is always correcting my speeling, my punctuation sucks.
But I have always loved numbers. I used to chart stats on baseball players starting in the 3rd grade. One of my ex wifes is a court reporter. Most dont realize, but they do actually use a lot of statistical math, and I came up with a methodology that her teacher was astounded with and he started teaching it.
. I looked at that study, and its BS. There are way too many variables involved. Especially if you are going back to 1968. You might as well go back to the caveman days, it was an entirely different world. TV was black and white. We didnt even have VCR's yet, much less DVD's , cell phones and PC's, and a much different electorate makeup.
...They say that all stats can be bent to get whatever results you want. Thats not always true, but when looking at studies like his, you have to remember that statistical trends dont always contrive with statistical averages.
. . Ive seen good studies and bad. This one is bad. Its main problem is the guy behind it. Start off wanting a certain result and you will get it. NY TImes is notoriously biased.

Good luck with that. I will see you in Pennsylvania on nov 8th

 

By the way, a large number of voters will vote on social issues when the economy has been doing ok or better. But when it has a prolonged period of not performing before the election, peoples minds change, Normally would vote on social issues becomes , the economy is more important, and many are turning to Romney now, especially since the debates, win, lose or draw, Romney got to debunk the bogus ads that were painting him as a child eating monster.
. Now that they have seen who he really is, they are turning to him and away from Obuma.

 

Heh, if by some chance BO wins this, Hillary should start packing because he's going to toss her right under that Benghazi bus. Not that he hasn't already tried. I think he completely underestimates the shyster team of clinton and clinton though, so it could be entertaining.

 

So what? That's why polls have likely-voter screens.

Again, this is irrelevant. Polls of likely voters have already winnowed those people out.

"Experts" like who?

Most pollsters don't weight for party ID. That's simply a fact.
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/sep/27/news/la-pn-pollsters-weight-surveys-20120927\]
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443768804578037193457675924.html
http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/09/the-recurring-and-misleading-focus-on.html

Way to not address the point.

As I've shown, the idea that the polls are skewed is bunk, and so is the belief that undecideds overwhelmingly go to the challenger.

I'm sure there are people like that. There are also people who want Romney to convince them that he's got an actual plan, even though he won't tell them what it is.

Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal.

Of course, the polls in the article were not NY TImes polls: it was a mathematical analysis of *all* presidential polls going back to 1968.

Um.... okay. Good for you.

So I see. It's perfectly mathematically okay to make a blanket statement like "Undecideds always break big for the challenger". But to actually go back and *test* that theory is BS.

O-o-o-kay.

Okay, I'll bite. Show me the non-BS math that proves your contention that undecideds break for the challenger.

Uh-huh. He showed his data and explained his methodology. You should be able to criticize the work without having to resort to criticizing the source. Until you do that -- and state the math supporting your contention -- I'll assume you've got no actual evidence.

 

Life is not just republican and Democrat- You are forgetting the large Independent Voting Party... In which I am a part of...

The Republican nominee is leading among independent voters 47% to 40%, in a new national Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. Independents accounted for about 14% of likely voters in the Journal survey.

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who conducts the survey along with Democratic pollster Peter Hart, said that number represents a big red flag for Mr. Obama.

"You are really flirting with trouble if you're losing independents by this margin," he said.

Wall Street Journal By JANET HOOK

 

R: 52, O: 45

R: 320+ electoral votes.

 

You should put that over in the prediction thread:
http://www.politicalforum.com/elections-campaigns/274440-final-election-predictions.html

 

Polls all skeweded to make it look tied.
In reality they have Romney up big and don't dare to disclose the fact!

Romney is surging!

 

I wonder where he got these polls I have looked everywhere for a match... I wonder why these people never site where they retrieved this information. I can only surmise the information he submitted is fraudulent and unverifiable... Following in an Acorns shell...

 

You can trace a lot of the polls back through RealClearPolitics.com, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/, which just lists all the major ones and averages them. But with more than half of them, you can't see the nuts and bolts of who they polled. All are skewed with a heavy Democrat over Republican weight, often at D +6 or more, which is not going to happen. Turnout is going to be better than R +2. Could be R +5. The election will not be close. As soon as they show that Romney is kicking butt in PA after the polls close, its over for Obama. Romney will win PA by 3-4. The rest fall for him like dominoes.

 

Exactly, the CNN poll has a +11 Democrat oversampling and yet the poll is tied today.

That's crazy considering Obama only won by 7 pts in 2008 and the independents are all voting Romney this year.

CNN is just trying to make it look close, in reality Romney is ahead in Ohio and elsewhere.

 

Yes I know and they never sample Independants either...

 

Polls indicate percentages, sheer numbers will make the difference. Obama's are down, Repubs are up.

 

Ohio is Romney Country!
More motivated voters means more votes turn out for Romney.
Polls don't capture that simple fact.

But regardless Romney is also up in the polls.

 

LOL what polls? Obama is up in all but Rassmussen, which is a tie.

 

www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtxqtBq0uVw

 

Dick Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, I know that he correctly predicted the landslide in the house of Representatives, and the win of Obama over McCain by one point. If he is correct with his new predictions that Obama will loose by big margins, it seems he will climb to the top of the Totem pole of polling predictions...

 

What a pleasant thought.

Let's hope Morris is correct.

 

I applaud those who align with the independents, but the sad reality is that we have a two-party system. No independent has come close in any election and as long as the powers that be remain in power it will continue to be that way.

It was very telling when Mister Green won the dem seat in NC out of nowhere. Some unheard of guy with no political background, but what was telling is that he had to pay $10,000 to get to run. Really? Since when should anyone have to pay an exhorbitant fee to run for office? It's that political good 'ole boy system.
The closed little clique that will continue to ensure only those players that they approve of gets a chance.

The only real way any other group other than repub or dem has a chance is if we make certain changes that won't happen under our current system. I'm not advocating for any sort of revolution, but truth be told that's what it will take to make any real changes in how our government works today.

We all get on here, in general, and left bash and right bash and all that, but in reality the government as a whole is corrupt. They're all a bunch of lying shysters. They work to ensure they maintain their power base and think primarily of their own personal prestige and power over anything else. They're all rich already by the time they get there, so if it isn't money that drives them, what does? Power, plain and simple.

 

Give it up, man, this campaign is over. Intrade has Obama up 86-14.

 

Just came back from voting and the poll in my part of Ohio was packed. Everyone was looking grim, eyeballing the suspects who might vote for Obama. I've never seen a line so long nor a group of people so determined. It was very serious in tone, as if our country depended on reclaiming a value it was founded on so many years ago. My sixth grade daughter went with me to see for herself how voting works.

She kind of became a focal point for many people in the long lines with nothing else to look at but walls and suspects, aka Obama supporters. She lightened the place and softened the hard expressions of determined voters who saw a future for her and a hope that would come from their vote. She had the poll people smiling and giving her "I just Voted" stickers because she told them she had organized a vote in two of her classes last week. They gave her half of the roll. The vote in her classes went 31 Romney, 9 Obama. Oh, and she organized a campaign among fellow students last week to click on Obama ads to run up his bill. What a kid. I couldn't be more proud.

 

My polling center was the same in Virginia. Very solemn with the Romney voters not saying a word. The Obama voters were playing around and taking pics with their phones. It was easy to tell who takes the future seriously.

 

Or it was easy to tell who was confident and who wasn't.

 

Or, it's easy to see which poster doesn't know what determination looks like.

 

Because it takes so much determination to vote....

Why, it's practically D-Day for you Republicans, wading ashore in the face of machine guns and mortar fire, moving relentlessly forward to reach those ballot boxes guarded by little old ladies with "I voted" stickers.

Brave, brave Republicans. Sacrificing themselves to grasp a better future for us all.

:eyeroll: