Collapse? Clinton's 12-Point Lead Over Trump Has Completely Evaporated.....

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by MMC, Oct 31, 2016.

  1. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    19,691
    Likes Received:
    384
    Trophy Points:
    83
    guess you don't believe politics is nothing more than marketing. you are wrong

    https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=now 7-d&q=ABC tracking

    every phone call a dnc fundraiser made last week started with the phrase " did you see that poll this morning" and it was every other story on the clinton news network
     
  2. raytri

    raytri Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2004
    Messages:
    38,841
    Likes Received:
    2,142
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I'm sure every fundraising call did. I'm also sure that doesn't indicate the polling company itself is deliberately skewing its numbers. Especially when you provide zero evidence to suggest it is.
     
  3. Doug_yvr

    Doug_yvr Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2008
    Messages:
    19,096
    Likes Received:
    1,827
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Lol, man you can't make this (*)(*)(*)(*) up...
     
  4. raytri

    raytri Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2004
    Messages:
    38,841
    Likes Received:
    2,142
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Well, he's right in a general sense, that you can cherry-pick a time frame as well as anything else. That's what climate-change deniers do.

    It makes no sense in this case, though.
    -- The time frame isn't cherry-picked -- it's the current election cycle.
    -- The other way you could cherry-pick is by setting the criteria for including a poll such that only polls whose results you like get included. Of course, there is no evidence that RCP does that, either.

    The main problem with Windigo's logic, though, is that it could be used to argue that there is no valid data, because all data needs to be defined by some limits (time frame, geographic location, whatever), and those can all be cherry-picked, so we should assume they WERE cherry-picked (apparently) and not trust anything at all.

    I guess that means we should just go with our gut and not try to measure anything.
     
  5. Windigo

    Windigo Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2008
    Messages:
    15,026
    Likes Received:
    1,139
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You are the one who is making it up. Averaging is just as prone to cherry picking as anything else. What makes the sample. What is the time frame. All cherry picks.
     
  6. Windigo

    Windigo Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2008
    Messages:
    15,026
    Likes Received:
    1,139
    Trophy Points:
    113
    No ae shouldnt speak in absolutes.
     
  7. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2012
    Messages:
    41,793
    Likes Received:
    14,697
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Yeah at least Bloomberg did after June of this year, huh? :grin:
     
  8. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    19,691
    Likes Received:
    384
    Trophy Points:
    83
    first hour of the first night of my first prob and stats class many years ago the professor told us that if you want to make a living as a pollster you need to keep your clients happy. when you find some evidence it is not true let me know, until then I will rely on good judgement and common sense which are two things that are foreign to libs. Otherwise this would not even be a topic
     
  9. raytri

    raytri Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2004
    Messages:
    38,841
    Likes Received:
    2,142
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Um, okay. And in public political polls, who are the "clients" you are trying to keep happy?

    You want me to prove a negative?
     
  10. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    19,691
    Likes Received:
    384
    Trophy Points:
    83
    you seem to out of rational arguments and just arguing to hear your keyboard rattle at this point. I am considering this conversation closed, it's not worth my time
     
  11. raytri

    raytri Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2004
    Messages:
    38,841
    Likes Received:
    2,142
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    LOL! So you assert deliberate bias, you cite a professor saying pollsters try to keep their clients happy, but then can't answer who the "client" is for a public political poll -- and thus, who needs to be kept happy. Which would seem to be an important thing to be able to state, if you are claiming bias.

    Bye.
     
  12. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2012
    Messages:
    41,793
    Likes Received:
    14,697
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Other than those at Bloomberg and obviously Time Mag. But I am glad you think those people at Time Mag and Bloomberg aren't rational.

    Its a start, for you to get away from the Dark Side. :grin:
     
  13. Nightmare515

    Nightmare515 Ragin' Cajun Staff Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2011
    Messages:
    11,139
    Likes Received:
    4,912
    Trophy Points:
    113
    For the Trump supporters here I have a legitimate question...

    What exactly are you looking at that is giving you such optimism that Trump is going to win? I understand the polls are narrowing and Hillary's lead is shrinking and seems to continue shrinking daily, however, I also understand the Electoral College...

    Look I don't want Hillary to win, at all. But I also don't want to run around having false hope that there is some sort of chance she won't....Are you guys seeing something that I'm not? Everything I read seems to point that Trump basically has no chance at winning the Electoral College. Yeah I get it he wasn't supposed to win the nomination, we all said this back then too etc. But this is different...

    I don't know, hopefully this is like the day I walked out of the bar in disgust only to turn around and see that my losing football team actually ran a gadget play and threw a hail mary to win the game at the last second. I was mad at myself for abandoning my team but happy as hell that they actually won nonetheless.

    I want to believe, I really do. But the only people who seem to have any confidence that Hillary losing is even possible are the folks on this forum...What are you guys seeing that I'm not?
     
  14. Battle3

    Battle3 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2013
    Messages:
    16,248
    Likes Received:
    3,012
    Trophy Points:
    113
    In all the places I have traveled through in the past 3-4 months, I have seen many Trump yard signs and bumper stickers. Almost no Hilary signs and stickers, in some areas not one single Hilary sign or sticker.
     
  15. CourtJester

    CourtJester Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2013
    Messages:
    27,769
    Likes Received:
    4,921
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Exactly, that is why it was a poll of likely voters so you comment made no sense.
     
  16. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2012
    Messages:
    41,793
    Likes Received:
    14,697
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Are you saying you don't know about those two Economic Models that haven't been wrong in a very long long time. Or the 2 professors and their models and they themselves not being wrong in predictions of presidential election results.
     
  17. Deno

    Deno Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2013
    Messages:
    3,335
    Likes Received:
    359
    Trophy Points:
    83
    To bad most hillary supporters aren't likely voters after all this.

    They are droping like flys
     
  18. sawyer

    sawyer Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2012
    Messages:
    11,892
    Likes Received:
    2,768
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Obviously the link I gave you is beyond your comprehension.
     
  19. DennisTate

    DennisTate Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2012
    Messages:
    31,734
    Likes Received:
    2,640
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I have the same impression.

    The enthusiasm of Donald Trump's supporters is amazing...... One of his group...."The Deplorables" is over 370,000 active members.
     
  20. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2014
    Messages:
    17,608
    Likes Received:
    2,043
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I am not a Trump supporter, but the one thing that should give them hope is that Hillary isn't moving in the polls. 10 days out, she should be closer to 50%. She really should be over it if it is going to be the blowout the dems have been hoping for. There is some indication that the Dems retaking the Senate is slipping away from them in the last week or so as well. With a 3% undecided, and Hillary up by 4 with a scandal looming from which she cannot possibly be exonerated, it becomes a neck to neck race. Who is going to win. Who knows. It is going to be close and it may come down to a small western state.
     
  21. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2013
    Messages:
    47,624
    Likes Received:
    48,666
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Trump is almost certainly going to win the popular vote at this rate. The Electoral College votes remain up in the air, however. It just depends if the voters pledged to Hillary remain loyal if Trump blows her out of the water.
     
  22. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2013
    Messages:
    47,624
    Likes Received:
    48,666
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I agree. The Left PAID to have crooked polling done and the Left-Allied Mainstream Media pushed that fiction for them. Trump has probably always been pretty much neck and neck with Hillary, if not a little bit ahead of her most of the time. But the Left essentially controls the media in our nation and so it is what it is.
     
  23. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2015
    Messages:
    53,622
    Likes Received:
    25,568
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Clinton has been damaged by another October surprise. Will it finish her off? Maybe, but all these late election cycle shockers are losing their shock and awe.
     
  24. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2013
    Messages:
    47,624
    Likes Received:
    48,666
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Out-freaking-standing!
     
  25. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2013
    Messages:
    47,624
    Likes Received:
    48,666
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I agree. Well said. I am TIRED of the vast bulk of this nation's media WORKING for the DNC while claiming that they are politically neutral. Don't urinate on my leg and claim that it's raining.
     

Share This Page