US coming into a Recession

Sure sign that negative interest rates on EU government bonds are driving the US bond market, a factor that has nothing to do with Trump's trade policies.

 

Dems have been willing to work with Trump, Trump is just not willing to work with Congress

how is that infrastructure deal coming?

 

Compared to what the democrats are doing today, the GOP boycotts were a fart in a windstorm.
I didn't like the tactic when the GOP used it, but at that point if was much more related to the content of what they wanted to block than the president.

 

Democrats willing to work with Trump- As in, do what we demand or leave office?
Nice try, no score.

 

Under trumper logic, yes. LOL! That way when trump's house of cards comes tumbling down, they can blame liberals for willing the US into a recession.

 

Yet Trump claims our economy is HOT!

 

Here is an update on those figures. Matters are far worse than my earlier report.

The Dow is down 800 points, the Nasdaq is down 242 points, and the S&P is down 86 points. The Dow is currently at 25,480, 40 points higher than it was five months ago.

Naturally, Trump and Trump's Democrat, Peter Navarro, the architect of the trade war with China, are both blaming the Fed, according to the Trump Network, otherwise known as Fox News.

“This is basically the Federal Reserve’s problem,” Navarro said. “They are causing this because when Jay Powell got in this chairman he proceeded to rein in interest rates by at 100 interest points, too far too fast. Even though the Trump economy is rock solid, it slowed us down a bit because of those higher interest rates.”

Trump joined the chorus, tweeting, "The Fed has got to do something! The Fed is the Central Bank of the United States, not the Central Bank of the World."

This, of course, is good for my health. If Trump ever accepted blame for his screwed up policy and apologized, I might have a coronary.

What Trump and his Democrat are saying is meant for his base. They are gullible enough to believe it. No one else will.

Let's take a look at the facts. On August 1, Trump announced a 10% tariff on $300B of Chinese goods that are popular with American consumers, clothing, shoes, computers, cell phones, etc. That precipitated the worst week of the year for the stock market. The following Monday, August 5, Trump's announcement caused the worst day of the year. The Dow plunged 760 points.

On August 12, the Dow lost 391 points, but then on August 13 The US Trade Representative announced a delay of Trump's tariffs on several categories of Chinese-made consumer goods until December 15. Those goods include cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing, and the Dow shot up more than 400 points.

Tariffs on popular consumer goods cause higher prices. Even Trump admitted that yesterday. Higher prices cause inflation. Inflation causes less demand. Less demand causes unemployment. Tariffs cause recession, Econ 101.

Today, August 15, the stock market set another record. Now it is the worst day of the year. The reason, recession fears. The Times reports, "Trade-war worries hammered financial markets again on Wednesday as data from Germany and China showed trouble for manufacturing-reliant economies, while the bond market renewed fears of an American recession."

But our President thinks the Fed is to blame. The complete lack of comprehension on the part of our current President never ceases to amaze me.

"If anyone had doubts that trade was the thing hanging over the market, today seals it," said Bill Stone, chief investment officer with Avalon Investment & Advisory.

 

Up next how to earn interest on your savings in a Trump negative interest rate economy...

 

The Dow is down 800 points, the Nasdaq is down 242 points, and the S&P is down 86 points. The Dow is currently at 25,480, 40 points higher than it was five months ago.

On August 1, Trump announced a 10% tariff on $300B of Chinese goods that are popular with American consumers, clothing, shoes, computers, cell phones, etc. That precipitated the worst week of the year for the stock market. The following Monday, August 5, Trump's announcement caused the worst day of the year. The Dow plunged 760 points.

On August 12, the Dow lost 391 points, but then on August 13 The US Trade Representative announced a delay of Trump's tariffs on several categories of Chinese-made consumer goods until December 15. Those goods include cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing, and the Dow shot up more than 400 points.

Tariffs on popular consumer goods cause higher prices. Even Trump admitted that yesterday. Higher prices cause inflation. Inflation causes less demand. Less demand causes unemployment. Tariffs cause recession, Econ 101.

I have been a student of current political history for over a half century, and I am a retired columnist. Never in my 50 years have I seen a U.S. President repeatedly harm our economy and cause investment losses. The current President is doing that very thing. The past three weeks prove it.

What are you talking about? What trouble? Be specific.

The Democrats have done nothing to harm our economy. If you think differently, prove it. Be specific. This is not a time for your usual vague generalities that lack substantiation.

What in the world are you talking about? Do you know? Or did you just make that up?

 

Trump was the one that walk out of the infrastructure deal

trump is the one that wont work with republicans or democrats, Trump does not know the art of the deal

 

And if you went to dinner next door and they served you nothing but a turd sandwich, you will be graceful and eat it, right?

Making deals isn't the same as kissing ass- and it often requires kicking ass. Or, walking out when the other side is serving up crap.
Trump walk because it was the right move under the circumstances. Of course they complained, they expected a one way deal and got brushed off.
Try getting you view from the center instead of the extreme end of the field sometime.

 

what was this turd sandwich you say Trump was eating? Trump walked out of the infrastructure deal without even discussing it

dems asked for a trillion, Trump said 2 Trillion, dems were gonna give him what he wanted

had Trump created all those infrastructure jobs, maybe the economy would not be facing another recession

 

looks like Trump decided to hold off his consumer tax until after the holiday spending

"Trump Delays a Holiday Tax, but Toymakers Are Still Worried"

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/us/politics/china-tariffs-toys.html

"The move does not appear to be a response to any concessions by China in the trade negotiations. “We’re doing this for the Christmas season,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Tuesday."

he also removed the Tariff on Bibles as China is the major producer of American Bibles - so there will be no more Bible tax from the Trump admin

 

"dems were gonna give him what he wanted". If that were true- the wall would be about half done now.

Only a fool thinks that the president controls all the things that happen. The president cannot make laws, cannot pass legislation. He can submit budgets and requests, but congress controls the purse strings. Given the anti-Trump obsession running rampant in the democratic congress like a plague, an intelligent person has to lay 95% of the existing issues and conditions on their doorstep.

I said an Intelligent person- without partisan bias, without their egos dominating their common sense. See if you can find one democrat like that, and ask them what the hell is wrong with their party.

 

I hope radical fear mongers cashed in everything yesterday. Our economy is slowing, so is China's. China's GDP's is no longer a growth story. The more their economy matures the lower their GDP will be.

Recessions are manufactured for the most part. They end for the same irrational reasons they begin, fear.

August and September are almost always down months for markets. We might see a correction, but we are not in a recession and probably won't be before the end of Q2 2020 or later.

This woman is not afraid to tell it like it is.

A shift in the inverted yield curve has historically paved the way for the last nine recessions dating back to 1955. The last inversion of the yield curve occurred in December 2005, two years ahead of the Great Recession.

“So historically, it’s been a pretty good signal of recession, and I think that’s why the markets pay attention to it, but I would really urge on this occasion it may be a less good signal. And the reason for that is that there are a number of factors other than market’s expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields,” Yellen said.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/janet-yellen-to-wall-street-a-recession-is-unlikely

 

we were talking about the infrastructure deal.....

but they offer Trump a deal on the wall for DACA, Trump refused

Trump needs to tell republicans in Congress what he will support, they are all afraid to do anything for fear Trump will attack them like he has done in the past even when he said he had their backs... he turns on them

this is why Trump's businesses failed, Trump is a micro-manager and all his employees feared doing anything on their own or pointing out potential issues with anything he says

I have worked for bosses like Trump, not fun, high stress, nothing gets done, but everyone is always stressed and running in circles

 

Obama? Of course not, but Chucky Cheese from NY did. I believe I can still find the video of his flame of IndyMac if you need a reminder...

 

24/7 talking down the economy ,,, in the latest attempt to destroy Trump. A school of thought is that this was a dry run for influencing the 2020 election. This would be a good time to get to the bottom of this hoax and decide whether it was a violation of SEC Rules or if it would be a violation of FEC rules if played out in the heat of the campaign.

If Democrats really want to take down the economy during the campaign, they need to get Yellen signed on to destroying the US economy to destroy Trump.

 

Do you blame the guy for doing a little cheerleading? Would you have him endlessly wring his hands? I bet I know the answer, but it seems antithetical for a person to be so negative in regards to the financial health of the nation...

 

I saw this coming a month before the yield curve inverted. So we will see. OP was July 16.

2nd Q 2020 isn't that far off. That would be in line with my own expectations. In fact, I saw the precursors of the 08 crash beginning in about June of 07. So that was about 9 months ahead of the crash.

Strangely, or perhaps not, we are seeing a big spike in the junk food industry. Suddenly they are ramping up. Junk food [comfort food] does great in a bad economy. Of course aviation related industries are hitting the skids but that is because of the 737-800 crashes.

 

True, consumer staple has been the to go sector lately even in the markets. P&G had good earnings. Buffet's Kraft/Heinz earnings were terrible though. Buffet said "I probably paid too much for it." There are a lot of indicators besides technical charts. Energy used to be a reliable signal but no longer. China trade is probably the biggest driver of fear but almost anything can spook the markets. Next year will be an election year so that will have an impact on markets later in the year too.

I'm not doing any speculative tech buying right now and have more in cash than normal due to high valuations. NO bonds and have reduced position in all international funds. When stocks are at all time highs I have taken some off the table. Otherwise I stay in and hang on for the ride. If there is a recession, I doubt it will be another big one.

 

What? What do you those Liberals "demand" recession? How does one "demand " a recession?