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Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I think our next big concern in the US is Easter Sunday. There are some pastors who are calling their flock to the church. One pastor for a mega church in PA has declared a Woodstock style Easter event. I hope his flock sees the dumbassery in that and stay home.

    If they won't stay home, we have to prepare that our deaths may start to rise again about 2-3 weeks after Easter.
     
    Curious Always, Apr 7, 2020
    #3676
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  2. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    12,000 in the US.
     
    Curious Always, Apr 7, 2020
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  3. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    We make estimates for the denominator on the seasonal flu as well. Covid-19 is more lethal than the seasonal flu.
     
    MrTLegal, Apr 7, 2020
    #3678
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  4. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I just noticed that the "national model" has been updated to include European countries:

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-America

    Germany, Italy and Spain are further broken down into regions, like the U.S. is broken down to a model for each state.

    For instance, Germany....

    upload_2020-4-7_12-45-19.png
     
    LoneStarGal, Apr 7, 2020
    #3679
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  5. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Yes.

    Already did.

    The time period is a day.

    That's probably it. ;)
     
    gfm7175, Apr 7, 2020
    #3680
  6. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    I want to congratulate you for looking after your employees.
     
    LangleyMan, Apr 7, 2020
    #3681
  7. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    It is. Common colds can also be caused by coronaviruses.
     
    gfm7175, Apr 7, 2020
    #3682
  8. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, they do.

    No idea.
     
    gfm7175, Apr 7, 2020
    #3683
  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Today, April 7th, 2020, at about 19:45, we blew over the 1.4 million mark in COVID-19 cases. Just a couple of minutes before, we were at 1,397,500 and then the numbers jumped all at once. Also, we have already crossed over 80,000 COVID deaths. The curve is obviously once again exponential.

    2020-04-007 COVID-19 MOD 001.png
     
    Statistikhengst, Apr 7, 2020
    #3684
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  10. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Looks like my guesstimate from a few days ago of 50K may actually be too high. That's great news. Unfortunately our policies were made based on the 2 million. Then the range of 100K to 200K was based on the population doing everything perfectly which they clearly did not.
     
    AFM, Apr 7, 2020
    #3685
  11. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No argument - it's more contagious. The deaths are compressed into a shorter time frame. The total mortality continues to go down. That's very good news.
     
    AFM, Apr 7, 2020
    #3686
  12. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We don't have a good estimate for the denominator yet. We will have soon. No question that Covid 19 kills people.
     
    AFM, Apr 7, 2020
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  13. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    It does. And here's the thing, we have a very good estimate for the denominator of covid-19. It is an estimate with a larger margin of error than the denominator for the seasonal flu, but even when you factor in the larger margin of error, covid-19 is more lethal than the seasonal flu.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
    MrTLegal, Apr 7, 2020
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  14. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    What hypothesis?

    Laughter is not an argument.

    Currently correct.

    Population is increasing as well. For this purpose, however, I am using a static estimate of 330M people.

    It is... very slowly...

    It looks like you are fear mongering over a simple flu virus.
     
    gfm7175, Apr 7, 2020
    #3689
  15. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Are you sure? Because the middle line estimate as of today is 81,000.

    upload_2020-4-8_2-7-52.png

    See above.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
    MrTLegal, Apr 7, 2020
    #3690
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  16. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    gfm7175, Apr 7, 2020
    #3691
  17. AKS

    AKS Banned

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    The hypothesis that cv-19 is not more deadly than flu. You know, what we've been discussing over hundreds of posts. Try to keep up.

    Indeed, I was laughing at your supporting evidence. It's a joke, right?

    Of course it is which is why I qualified it as a "population metric"


    It is? How do you quantify slow vs fast growth? I don't think you have any f^%$ing idea what you're talking about.

    I suppose to the ignorant, reality appears that way.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
    AKS, Apr 7, 2020
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Seems like a method of attack worth researching.

    All good learning is going from the known to the unknown, step by step, until the unknown is now a known.
     
    Statistikhengst, Apr 7, 2020
    #3693
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  19. cristiansoldier

    cristiansoldier Well-Known Member

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    Received a very sad email this morning that 2 people in our company has died due to covid 19. They didn't release the names or the location but the email seems to imply the New York or New Jersey office. I don't work a lot with people on the east coast but I have had the occasional meetings and visits with some. I am kind of wondering if it is someone I know personally or have met. Working from home it makes it a lots harder to find out without the office chatter.
     
    cristiansoldier, Apr 7, 2020
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Cuomo himself said in his 3rd or 4th presser that his response to the NYC school situation was far too slow.
     
    Statistikhengst, Apr 7, 2020
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  21. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Irrelevant. "Experts" do not bless, sanctify, or otherwise "make holy" any argument.
     
    gfm7175, Apr 7, 2020
    #3696
  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Correct. That metric is mathematically possible to calculate, is, however, pretty much useless.
     
    Statistikhengst, Apr 7, 2020
    #3697
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  23. AKS

    AKS Banned

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    And yet you provide zero reason to accept your metric.
     
    AKS, Apr 7, 2020
    #3698
  24. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    So that's a No.

    Shocking that you believe you alone understand math and the study of pandemics. ****ing useless.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
    MrTLegal, Apr 7, 2020
    #3699
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  25. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Really sorry to hear this man. This virus is ****ing brutal.
     
    MrTLegal, Apr 7, 2020
    #3700
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