Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Date ??? Trump was expressing the guidance of Fauci and the other medical experts who, based on the Red Chinese Communist government cover up, had concluded that the Corona virus was not very contagious. How is following the advice of our medical experts unwise ???

You have nothing.

 

More dodges. Sweden is doing much better than other countries who have locked down. And you ignore Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. But you insert the U.K. You have nothing.

 

Again you have nothing except this 52% which you cannot explain. You have nothing.

 

I originally posted the link to the data showing that 52% of New Yorkers were staying home a couple of days ago. My point was that NY was able to successfully flatten the curve with only half the people not moving about. Would it have taken less time if more had stayed home? Yes, of course. Locking people down was never the goal though. Not swamping the hospital system and running out of beds was the goal.

Is Sweden's goal to prove that they could get lower numbers than Norway, Denmark or Finland? No. That was never their goal. Their goals were to not trash their economy severely, not swamp their medical system and have one big spike without the aftershocks. They knew they'd have a bigger spike and more deaths initially, but fewer later. No one can say if they will be successful or not for several months.

 

Generally UNWISE, such as;

President Donald Trump, with members of the president's coronavirus task force, holds a paper about countries best prepared to deal with a pandemic during a news conference on Feb. 26, 2020, in Washington.

TWO WEEKS LATER; "I inherited a broken system, and frankly, a terrible system"

Endless examples!

 

I specifically mentioned the much higher rate of public compliance in Asia. Are you running low on ammo?

 

Thanks for clarifying that the 52% referred to NYC. Where I am in NorCal I think it’s better than that. And yes, as you have pointed out, the goal was to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system which was accomplished. Unfortunately it appears that the healthcare system has been damaged due to loss of revenues because of the ban on so-called elective procedures.

 

This is the link to one of the sites which IHME started using. They listed 3 'tracking' sites they started adding to their model data. They are tracking peoples' cell phones with satellite data to see how many more (or fewer) people are moving around now versus before restrictions started.

Currently, the U.S. average is that 19.49% more of the country is staying home than stayed home anyway before the virus. Total people at home is 43.2%...so 57% of America is still moving about (work, shopping, parks...wherever they're going).

https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-shelter-in-place

 

They're YOUR figures, not mine. And I've explained it multiple times. Modelling says a minimum of 80% compliance is needed to have significant effect. America has - at best - 52%.

 

Generally UNWISE, such as;

Trump: “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was declared a pandemic”

Endless examples!

 

More nothing. He referenced a paper rating the US very highly. Two weeks later he realized the awful truth.

So far you have endless failures.

 

Which is exactly why America is in the jam it's now in.

We have 80%+ here. New Zealand has 90%+.

 

As LSG explained the number comes from NYC.

Modelling ??? Seriously.

 

I know. That's a shame isn't it? A lot of small practices had to furlough their staff, shut their doors. Depending on their overhead (rent/lease mortgage on the building, utilities, etc.) they may not be able to ever get back on their feet and reopen. That will be the same story with tens of thousands of small independent businesses.

 

Those countries did not shutdown. They continued to go to work.

 

Date ???

Regardless, more nothing.

 

Exactly. As I pointed out numerous times. That's your BEST compliance, NYC. If that's only 52%, then the rest of the country must be lower.

Modelling is done based on all available information, by highly qualified university based teams. In this case, the modelling is proving to be very very accurate. New Zealand being a great test case, since they've had the highest compliance outside of China, and are bang on for predictions made by the modelling.

 

New York State (not city), but that site does show data for every state and does break it down to the county level. Some of the hard hit New York City boroughs do have slightly over 60% staying home, or only about 40% "out and about". That makes sense if you're at ground zero. Doesn't make that much sense for upstate New York or most of the rest of the country....not economically.

 

Not all - and those who did, did so with very high rates of compliance to protocols. Everyone in masks, everyone observing strict distancing, surfaces constantly sanitised, etc etc. Also, most of those cultures are far less inclined to physical affection, so hand shaking, hugging etc is much less common than in, say .. Italy.

 

Generally UNWISE, such as;

Trump: Anyone who wants virus test can get a test • March 6, 2020

Endless examples!

 

Okay. IMO that’s good. NYC is the epicenter and unfortunately many have to use subway, etc. Agreed that in rural areas it makes less sense.

 

That’s what he was told. Unfortunately the CDC blew it.

Next.

 

In all the countries I listed their citizens continued to go to work.

 

What was the history of model predictions for New Zealand ???

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

One of the things I don't read enough about is: Total Tests VS Positives. So, the US has ran 4 million tests, to 819K positive(653 K active cases.) In terms of percentages, I'm not sure how much is positive VS Negative, but negatives still seem to be outweighing the positives by a substantial margin.