Russian Tanks Cross Border Into Ukraine

Not at all. How about we go back to some of that wall of text you posted upthread, in particular the letter dated April 15th. From that letter:

In fact, there is zero evidence Kyiv has or is planning any military operation. We’re less sure about Moscow’s plans. Therefore, we welcomed Ukraine’s invocation of Chapter III of the Vienna Document, to seek clarity on Russia’s military activities in the region, which include the largest massing of Russian forces near and in occupied Ukraine since 2014.

While the OSCE was failing to see any evidence of Kiev planning any military operation, CNN had no trouble filming rail cars loaded with tanks in a rail yard. While CNN used that piece of film to illustrate "Russian aggression", the boxcars directly behind those tanks were clearly painted with Ukrainian insignia in its familiar blue and yellow colors.

I got a laugh out of that at how stupid CNN was in its reporting, but now, as you've shown, the OSCE is just as willfully blind and stupid.

So thanks for that.

 

Constantinople is not Russian, but it has been a Greek city for 3 thousand years. According to the Lausanne Treaty the Greeks were to remain there. But the Turks destroyed all their business' and churches during a pogrom, and expelled them illegally.

Whenever Moscow wants Erdogan to watch his step, a reference is made to Constantinople since it controls the straits and Russia's life line. It's not something to mess around with.

Lately Erdogan has been talking of abolishing the Montreaux Treaty and about building a canal to bypass it. 150 Turkish ex admirals wrote a letter to Erdogan telling him not to touch the treaty and not to build the canal to bypass the treaty. They said it's the only thing that has kept them out of wars. So Erdogan arrested them.

The Aegean and that whole part of the world is ready to blow up.

 

Zoomie - Erdogan believes Crimea belongs to the Turks because it was once under the Ottomans. That's why they're involved.

 

Your point doesn't stand - and we are not talking about tanks. Hypersonic Missiles are a reality - and are starting to be deployed by Russia. India has tested hypersonics as well.

Regardless - Russia doesn't need hypersonics to neutralize our navy - their supersonic anti ship missiles are more than capable.

 

Here's what I was talking about with CNN reporting on Russian aggression.


Behind the train with the tanks there is a passenger train in the station. Its cars are blue with a yellow stripe, the colors of the flag of Ukraine.
The cars in the CNN video are obviously Ukrainian rail cars. Like this one which also features the Ukrainian state emblem.



https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/...eapons-going-east-are-russian-aggression.html

If you go to the link there are several Twitter videos, with some showing tanks and the above pictured rail cars together on the same train.

But the OSCE sees nothing ......

 

Thats not nice....

 

If the Ukrainians in Lviv and western Ukraine didn't want to be identified with the German Nazis, they wouldn't be using their symbols on their uniforms. From what I gather, they're very proud of that identity, so we have no right to tell them otherwise.

 

You can thank Koba Gruzin Stalin for those "Nazi" pics....its those wonderful 5 yr plans, collectivization, pogroms,Holodomor....and lotsa other BS plans that cost millions....now the asiatic Katsap razguls demonize those same ones.

 

And asiatic razguls like their butchers like Koba,Felix,Lazar, Lavrenti....and the rest of the sovok trash band.

 

Were they Russians? I'm not too sure.

You do know that the Russian Nazis left Russia when the war in Ukraine started and joined their counterparts in Kiev.

 

No, you can thank Obama, Victoria Nuland and the media propaganda for putting the Nazis in charge of Ukraine. No president of Ukraine dares to follow the Minsk agreement because of the Nazis. So anything that happens will be the fault of the ones who put them into the government.

 

More propaganda.

And more propaganda. It's Russia that has been violating the Minsk agreement, and that's because Russia wants to gobble up pieces of Ukraine.

 

You obviously don't even know what the Minsk Agreements are. Obviously.

 

It says Russia needs to stop killing people in Ukraine.

 

Or they're right and you're wrong. Odds are that's the case.

 

Read what you wrote; ... starting to be deployed by Russia, tested by India. 'Starting' and 'testing' don't count. I said fully deployed in large numbers. I meant fully deployed etc etc.

For the rest? Pure speculation on your part. The US Navy itself has made no noise about being overwhelmed by Russian technology and it has a range of technological 'fixes' in place for the current generation of Russian missiles. Which is not the same thing as saying they are sanguine about the threat potentially Russia poses in a conventional war at sea. Just that they have counter measures for dealing with current systems. As far as the zircon goes? DARPA and the Navy are working on options for when it is fully deployed. Which is not for a while yet.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/the-us-apparently-gets-its-ass-handed-to-it-in-war-games-2019-3?amp

HOME MILITARY & DEFENSE
The US has been getting 'its ass handed to it' in war games simulating fights against Russia and China
Ryan Pickrell
Mar 8, 2019, 10:26 AM


US artillery units hone their gunnery skills during an exercise near Dona Ana, New Mexico, April 28, 2018.
U.S. Army National Guard photo by Sgt. Brittany Johnson

• The US might very well lose a high-end fight against a near-peer threat like China or Russia, two war-gaming experts said Thursday.
• "In our games, when we fight Russia and China, 'blue' gets its ass handed to it," said David Ochmanek, a RAND analyst, referring to a color code used for the US.
• In these simulated fights, an aggressor force obliterates US stealth fighters on the runway, sinks US warships, destroys US bases, and takes out critical US military systems.

In war games simulating a high-end fight against Russia or China, the US often loses, two experienced military war-gamers have revealed.

"In our games, when we fight Russia and China, 'blue' gets its ass handed to it," David Ochmanek, a RAND warfare analyst, explained at the Center for a New American Security on Thursday, Breaking Defense first reported. US forces are typically color-coded blue in these simulations.

Notice the date of the article..... 2019. It doesn't matter if Russia has its next-gen weapons deployed in large numbers or not.

 

Well if 'two war-gaming experts' said it must be true then.

I repeat the US has in place systems and strategies in place designed to counter current threats. How well those systems and strategies would actually work in a real confrontation? Also certainly not as well as expected. But then Russia and China have exactly the same problem. No matter how effective they think their attacks might be against the US they know they wont get 100% effectiveness either. Which is why its probably best for all if no-one puts them to the test.

 

I won't bicker about this subject if you think you know more than the folks at Rand.

Maybe you could say what these systems and strategies are?

The main point here is that both sides know about these war game results. Both sides also know that it doesn't matter because whichever side was losing would go nuclear. That's why nuclear powers don't engage in warfare with each other. Which makes this farce going on in Ukraine puzzling and troubling. Russia has drawn a clear red line. The US needs to quit goading this on.

 

In terms of strategies? I know know more than you would glean from conversations with people who work in the area and open source articles.

The problem is its hard to know how serious to take this particular set of war games without knowing the exact starting conditions and to what extent, if any they leaned towards 'worse case' scenarios from the US perspective. And of course Rand works closely with the the US Defense Dept, their contracts are its bread and butter as I'm sure you know. That means the DoD and particularly the Navy would be aware of this particular series of exercises and Rand would have assisted/advised on ways of avoiding/preventing those scenarios coming to fruition. Point is the armed services themselves aren't panicking - at least based on general conversations I had with military officers. They're aware of the (very real risks) and want to avoid any potential conflict like the plague plan but they also plan accordingly.

So for now I rate this particularly story as unnecessarily alarmist until we see a cascade of similar reports. I also note that both Russia and China also have their uncertainties in military planning and face their own worse case scenarios.

As far as Moscow's position on the Ukraine its only a 'red line' of the US is silly enough to force the issue. This is a negotiation and each side is carefully balancing their threats to get as much as they can out of it. I don't see the US pushing Russia too hard if Russia doesn't push too hard the other way. Its not in either sides interest.

 

I never stated hypersonics were fully deployed, but they will be soon enough so what difference does it make - you were talking like these things did not exist.

Not speculation at all - It is no secret that anti-ship cruse missile technology has advanced at a rate greater than our ability to defend. You are the one engaging in pure speculation - going on about how how Russia is nothing .. "Were the best ### the rest" and so on.

Chest pounding , self deception and underestimating one's enemy is not a winning strategy mate. If you havn't heard about the cruise missile threat from the Navy - then you havn't been listening .. not like they scream it to the top of the hilltop - but of course the Navy knows what is going w/r to missile technology and Russia has the best stuff - and has had for the last 30 years .. while we have been stumping the pooch for the most part - and not just Russia - this technology has spread which is of particular concern.


First off - even if we had the ability to deal with sorties - and it is not clear that we do by any stretch - we run out of ammo long before Russia/China/India - runs out of cruse missiles .. so if we were to attack the homeland of one of these nations (which we never would due to nukes) - they easily achieve "saturation" -a term you should google w/r to this topic. So the Carrier group has to stay out of range from the shore - this is one of the reasons we were so up in arms about China taking over those Islands in China Sea - they put anti ship missiles on them.

Second - you can build a whole lot of anti ship cruise missiles - at 1 million a pop - for the price of a 15 Billion dollar Carrier + group + operational costs ...

Just look at what Iran has accomplished with cruse missile - now drone fusion missiles - against the Saudi Refinery - Patriot System - it did not even see the missiles coming.

And that was Iran - whose technology is nothing in comparison to Russia/China/India consortia. Russia has been routinly hitting ISIS targets in Syria from as far as 1500 km away routinely - 930 Miles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M-54_Kalibr

 

Not true, my position from the start was always that they had not been been deployed in numbers significant enough to make a difference. Toyota can announce an brand new car model tomorrow, complete with sexy pictures and a big PR splash. But until it actually shows up for sale in your local car lot it doesn't matter.

Then you need to prove (provide facts) that this is the case. Because to date I have seen no evidence to prove that contention.

I'm not 'underestimating' them. What I am doing is not overestimating them. The only recent advancement in anti ship missile technology that might, repeat might be a game changer is hyper-sonic missile technology. Which as per my previous comment (above) could become a threat once deployed in number significant enough numbers to make a difference. That's not now. Apart from anything else you have to locate a target before you can destroy it then you have to beat whatever ECM the enemy can throw at you (and the US is very good at that) then you have point defenses to defeat.

Meanwhile the US and its western Allies are working on hyper-sonic weapon systems of their own and technologies like laser based point defense systems. Its a race. And the window of opportunity for Russia or China to deploy 'unbeatable' weapon systems (assuming they are unbeatable) is very narrow.

Firstly WTF India?? When do they become a hostile threat to the US?

Secondly the same argument applies to the US. It can, if necessary produce amounts of munitions at a roughly equivalent rate to China and Russia. Thirdly why would the US want to initiate hostilities and attack mainland China or Russia. Respond yes, initiate no. End of story.

Cruise missiles??And WTF is 'drone fusion'? I think you've been watching too many Star Trek episodes!

As far as can be determined Iran supplied Houthi rebels in Yemen with relatively low tech, low altitude, slow flying drone systems with explosive payloads. Your could buy the components for most of such a system in your local electronic store if you had to. That doesn't mean the plan wasn't well planned or executed BTW, just that it wasn't a game changing, technological breakthrough that threatens the existence of every western navy on the planet.

Patriot missiles batteries on the other hand are designed to deal with ballistic missile and other high speed, high altitude threats. Expecting them to detect and intercept low flying, low tech weapons like the Iranians used is like expecting Iron Man to intercept pigeons! [/QUOTE]

For the rest? Try reading widely and reading often. Your sources of information are at best puerile. At worst? Politically inspired propaganda.

 

For the rest? Try reading widely and reading often. Your sources of information are at best puerile. At worst? Politically inspired propaganda.[/QUOTE]

You obviously have no clue what you are talking about wr to drones - some of which are now sophisticated missiles of a kind.
Then you go on some weird rant about India not being a threat ... when I didn't say they were a threat . the conversation is about missile technology - and related capabilities .. something you clearly have not spent much time researching and are throwing stuff at the wall hoping something will stick .. in a desperate attempt to avoid the nasty reality that technology has spread - and our Navy can be neutralized - by a growing number of nations .. .. like China but even smaller players are now a threat.

"Prove it" "Prove it" you cry - never having even heard the word "Saturation"

https://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/CSBA6173-PGM2_Report_WEB_2.pdf

and the Chinese stuff not near as good as the Russian stuff mate .. your not gettin it - we have had 3 major Nations - working hard on this technology .. "Russia's contribution to China's Surface Warfare Capabilities " https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazon...on/150824_Schwartz_RussiaContribChina_Web.pdf

Then you ramble on about "We have missiles too" - Well Yeah duh .. was one of our main advantages over the enemy - an advantage which we no longer have .. because they have caught up ... but regardless .. having anti ship missiles - does not help us to defend against these weapons .. so why bring it up ?

You are all over the map - Missile technology has advanced - at a rate quicker than our ability to defend .. not easy to shoot a missile with a missile - how are we to defend against even one of these missiles .. never mind salvo's - and not talking "Hypersonic" .. just regular stealthy supersonic cruise missiles that think - and maneuver ?

Do let us know when you have figured it out because the US military hasn't .. nor any other military. "Directed Energy Weapons" - that's the ticket - that will get em - OK Great .. lets get it developed quick - cause right now .. we ain't got no good defense.

 

OK, to summarize. The US is doomed, everyone is 'better' that us. Fine. Lets just give up shall we and all learn Russian or Chinese or (for some bizarre reason) Indian.

My point on the other hand is that things are never that simplistic. Russia and China may have some strategic and (within very narrow parameters) technical advantages - at the moment. So do the US and its allies.

The whole thrust of my argument is that its never as simple as 'they have more/better/missiles than us'. Military technology (like all areas of technology) is in a constant state of flux. A lead in one area is quickly overtaken by a lead in another area shortly afterwards. I have never said that the US is the 'best', the 'boss', or 'number one' etc etc.

What I have said is that it is never as simplistic as you seem to imagine. 'Saturation' works both ways. So does ECM ECCM and point defense, along with a whole host of other technologies around data processing and analysis, threat detection, steatlh and anything else you can think up.

In summery, in 5000 years of human history nothing has changed, you can kill the enemy and the enemy can kill you. Any weapon you can develop, the enemy can develop countermeasures for. And vice versa. The US and its allies are NOT staring into the abyss of defeat. Nor are Russia and China. There are simply too may variable at play to determine. I will note however that over the past 70 years the US and its allies have been the leaders in technological advances due to the open, competitive and free market nature of their economic system. Russia and China have been forced to play 'catch-up' or, all to often 'steal-up'. So, unlike you I remain optimistic about our prospects.

And I say the last because during this entire thread not once have you pointed to any solutions to what you allege is an imminent problem, only complaints/whinges..

 

Yep. Iran is far far behind Russia yet their missiles flew right by the Patriot System. What does that say about the Patriot System? Well, it's obviously now junk compared to even Iran's missile tech.

Remember all the fuss about Turkey buying Russia's S400 system? Even the Turks know the Patriot system is junk.